Teams & Riders The official Egan Bernal is the new Egan Bernal thread

[Escarabajo]

Depending on how he does in the Tour of Hungary they might change the direction IMHO. But if he is going to the Tour he needs Suisse before I think.

 

[BR2]

Another hard crash for Bernal today, hope that he is ok.

I really question the need to race so much before the Tour given the increasing risks that cycling races seems to be having when compared with training. He already has 25 race days and if he finishes the Tour of Hungary, the Tour of Norway and the Tour of Switzerland he will reach the TDF with more than 40 race days (that would mean well more than 80 race days if he goes to the Vuelta after completing the Tour).

He already showed that he is back to a high level in the Tour of Romandie so riding two smaller stages races during the month of May instead of doing a altitude camp seems a bit pointless for a rider that in my opinion is still one of Ineos best chances to get a GC result in the Tour. If he gets a win surely that will boost his confidence but is it worth the risk ahead of the Tour? I don't think so.

However, many, probably most, serious crashes happen in training... Bernal's worst injury comes from training... Amy Pieters almost lost her life due to a training crash... the crashes that happened before the Giro...
at least during the races the roads are closed...

 

[KZD]

Bernal to skip the Tour of Norway and race the Dauphiné instead of Tour de Suisse.

 

[Escarabajo]

Bernal to skip the Tour of Norway and race the Dauphiné instead of Tour de Suisse.

Correct. That is what I was expecting if He was to do the Tour. My bet is on Suisse in order to give him a bit more time to prepare on altitude at home.

 

[Escarabajo]

Procyclingstats.com has Bernal in both races Dauphine and Suisse. LOL.
Let's put him in both because we know for sure he'll go to one of them and they will be 50% right!

 

[Valv.Piti]

I heard Dauphine somewhere, my money would be on that race.

I thought he'd do better in Hungary, but it was a *** race and the climbs were easy. Still woulda expected a bit more after Romandie.

The two next weeks will show if he's going to TdF or not. INEOS desperately needs one of Bernal, Rodriguez and Dani to show something in June. Otherwise, their best bet might be stage hunting with Pidcock (which I assume he will no matter what).

 

[carton]

Heard from one of the coaches that Bernal is going to the TdF as a domestique. Given what we have seen from Rodriguez and Martinez so far this year they might be hoping any of them including Bernal can step up while trying to keep the pressure off Egan in particular as much as possible. It seems like a lot to ask given the level of the competition and the season they have had so far. But then again also given where they are right now, and the fact that they sent their best domestiques bar Castroviejo to the Giro, a podium and a stage win might count as a successful Tour for Ineos this year. And if any of them can hit their best form on the Tour (and in the case of Bernal, just somewhere close to that) a podium would not be that much of a reach. We'll see what happens at the Dauphine.

 

[Netserk]

The podium will be difficult. Really difficult. But I would love to see Bernal do well.

 

[pastronef]

Procyclingstats.com has Bernal in both races Dauphine and Suisse. LOL.
Let's put him in both because we know for sure he'll go to one of them and they will be 50% right!

tbf this happens not so rarely on procyclingstats. riders happen to be listed in two races preview/starlists together

 

[Pinot's goat]

I heard Dauphine somewhere, my money would be on that race.

I thought he'd do better in Hungary, but it was a *** race and the climbs were easy. Still woulda expected a bit more after Romandie.

The two next weeks will show if he's going to TdF or not. INEOS desperately needs one of Bernal, Rodriguez and Dani to show something in June. Otherwise, their best bet might be stage hunting with Pidcock (which I assume he will no matter what).

He crashed hard in Hungary.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I don't believe he's going to the Tour as a domestique for a second. A domestique for who?! Chances are he will be their best bet for an overall result, at least if Carlos Rodriguez is not yet back to his best. I still have no clue what happened to him anyways.

 

[staubsauger]

Why would you put Bernal into the Dauphine, when he can go to the Tour de Suisse to see where he stands in reference with Ayuso, a rider he was superior to at the recent Tour de Romandie?

That just doesn't make sense to me.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Why would you put Bernal into the Dauphine, when he can go to the Tour de Suisse to see where he stands in reference with Ayuso, a rider he was superior to at the recent Tour de Romandie?

That just doesn't make sense to me.

Why would he want a matchup with Ayuso specifically? Ayuso has a different season target and didn‘t have the endurance yet at Romandie. I would still like him to do Suisse because the route is amazing, especially pacing-wise, but none of the favorites for the Tour will ride it.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Why would you put Bernal into the Dauphine, when he can go to the Tour de Suisse to see where he stands in reference with Ayuso, a rider he was superior to at the recent Tour de Romandie?

That just doesn't make sense to me.

Ineos loved their Dauphine, don't they?

It doesn't matter much though, but chances of winning Suisse is usually a lot higher and so they will be this year. Same goes for a top-5/top-10. Both routes are not the greatest for Egan though.

 

[staubsauger]

Why would he want a matchup with Ayuso specifically? Ayuso has a different season target and didn‘t have the endurance yet at Romandie. I would still like him to do Suisse because the route is amazing, especially pacing-wise, but none of the favorites for the Tour will ride it.

You kinda answered the question yourself. Because Ayuso, even if he wins Switzerland, likely won't slaughter Bernal completely!

 

[Pinot's goat]

Why would you put Bernal into the Dauphine, when he can go to the Tour de Suisse to see where he stands in reference with Ayuso, a rider he was superior to at the recent Tour de Romandie?

That just doesn't make sense to me.

Picking races based on a single rider from another team makes sense?

 

[staubsauger]

Picking races based on a single rider from another team makes sense?

No. It just was an example that the pressure to perform is much lower in Switzerland!

The route suits him perfectly with Albulapass anyway.

 

[carton]

The podium will be difficult. Really difficult. But I would love to see Bernal do well.

I'm just saying particularly assuming Pogacar doesn't make it, surely Vingegaard is a cut above and maybe so is Carapaz, but after that, Yates, Mas and Gaudu and the rest are more inconsistent than unbeatable. Maybe Jorgenson or Ayuso or someone else can step up, but by the same token, it's also not that much of a reach for an in-form Rodriguez and Martinez to contend for a podium, much less a reasonably in-shape Bernal.

Again, Bernal would be nominally going as a domestique/superdomestique for Rodriguez and Martinez, who are both struggling to find their form, but one would expect it to be less of a struggle than for Bernal. But as Valv.Piti alluded to, if he's going well at the Dauphine and Rodriguez and Martinez aren't hanging with the best, I can see Bernal actually getting a freer role than outright domestique. After all, he would "only" need to reach Vuelta 2021 form to be up there mixing it up with the likes of Adam Yates. I mean, surely that's far easier said than done, and the team is publicly discounting the possibility, but as long as you're throwing darts at the dartboard I can see them letting it fly with Bernal while keeping expectations as grounded as possible. But I'm also reasoning from a place where I'd like to see him do well.

 

[ZamlinusYoutubeious]

If he is fit for the tdf...i expect him to do really well.

 

[Escarabajo]

There is no way that INEOS will add Bernal as a domestique at the Tour. Why would they do so? I understand sending the other two as leaders but at INEOS at this moments there are more free roles than in previous years. Like I heard in Colombian podcasts, who is the leader at INEOS for the Tour? there are only free roles at this moment.

 

[Salvarani]

There is no way that INEOS will add Bernal as a domestique at the Tour. Why would they do so? I understand sending the other two as leaders but at INEOS at this moments there are more free roles than in previous years. Like I heard in Colombian podcasts, who is the leader at INEOS for the Tour? there are only free roles at this moment.

Same approach as in the Giro?

 

[Netserk]

This is roughly how likely I think the contenders are to podium the Tour:

85 % - Vingegaard: He just has to avoid too much bad luck to make it, otherwise guaranteed.
75 % - Pogi: Likewise, but greater uncertainty with his setback and thus also lower tolerance for further setbacks.
25 % - Gaudu
20 % - Hindley
20 % - Mas
15 % - Carapaz
10 % - Landa
10 % - Yates, Simon
5 % - Evenepoel: Maybe he starts the race. Conditional on that, I think he is as likely as the rest to take 3rd.
5 % - Rogla: Like Evenepoel.
5 % - Yates, Adam
5 % - Rodríguez
5 % - Martínez
5 % - O'Connor
2 % - Vlasov
2 % - Pidcock
2 % - Bernal: So yeah, I think it will be really difficult for him.
1 % - Bardet
1 % - Kelderman
1 % - Mäder
1 % - Someone else

 

[FroomeWagon]

There is no way that INEOS will add Bernal as a domestique at the Tour. Why would they do so? I understand sending the other two as leaders but at INEOS at this moments there are more free roles than in previous years. Like I heard in Colombian podcasts, who is the leader at INEOS for the Tour? there are only free roles at this moment.

Same approach as in the Giro?

Was that a good approach to have? Some people have speculated that Ineos dropped the ball by not trying to distance Roglic earlier in the race when he appeared weaker and allowing him to make it up all in the end. Was the reason for this due to too many "free roles" early on? Not saying that is what happened, but could it be?

 

[Andy schleck]

This is roughly how likely I think the contenders are to podium the Tour:

85 % - Vingegaard: He just has to avoid too much bad luck to make it, otherwise guaranteed.
75 % - Pogi: Likewise, but greater uncertainty with his setback and thus also lower tolerance for further setbacks.
25 % - Gaudu
20 % - Hindley
20 % - Mas
15 % - Carapaz
10 % - Landa
10 % - Yates, Simon
5 % - Evenepoel: Maybe he starts the race. Conditional on that, I think he is as likely as the rest to take 3rd.
5 % - Rogla: Like Evenepoel.
5 % - Yates, Adam
5 % - Rodríguez
5 % - Martínez
5 % - O'Connor
2 % - Vlasov
2 % - Pidcock
2 % - Bernal: So yeah, I think it will be really difficult for him.
1 % - Bardet
1 % - Kelderman
1 % - Mäder
1 % - Someone else

I put hindley above gaudu. He is the winner of the giro, and he is a better climber than gaudu.

 

[FroomeWagon]

I put hindley above gaudu. He is the winner of the giro, and he is a better climber than gaudu.

Here are the top odds to win from the bookmakers. A number of the books don't have odds for Remco or Primoz, but two did so I included them.

​	Odds​	Probability Win​
Vine​	1.25​	44.4%​
Pog​	1.5​	40.0%​
Remco​	6​	14.3%​
Primoz​	9​	10.0%​
Mas​	16​	5.9%​
Hindley​	28​	3.4%​
Gaudu​	33​	2.9%​
Carapaz​	33​	2.9%​
Pidcock​	40​	2.4%​
Ayuso​	50​	2.0%​
Landa​	66​	1.5%​
Thomas​	80​	1.2%​
Martiez​	80​	1.2%​
Ben Oconnor​	80​	1.2%​
Simon Yates​	80​	1.2%​
Vlasov​	90​	1.1%​
Almeida​	100​	1.0%​
Bardet​	100​	1.0%​
Rodriguez​	100​	1.0%​
Bernal​	100​	1.0%​
van Aert​	125​	0.8%​
Lopez​	125​	0.8%​
Adam Yates​	150​	0.7%​