The Official LANCE ARMSTRONG Thread 2010-2011

[Cerberus]

How much do teammates who know how to ride cobbles matter?

My reason for asking is that I don't know how much personal experience other GC guys have on the cobbles. I know Saxo-Bank and others have guys on the teams who are skilled on the cobbles... but Lance has finished in the top 30 or so a couple of times at RVV. He's no specialist... but he's proven to be respectable at least.

How much of that is negated by say... Andy Schleck being able to follow Cancellera's line?

Good question, I think a lot of it is about being in the front of the field before you hit the cobbles, having a strong team and in particular Cancellara, O'Grady and Breschel should give Andy a large advantage there. How much it helps once you hit the Cobbles I'm less sure of. Anyone?

 

[El Oso]

In 2005 he finished somethng like 120th in the opening prologue of Paris-Nice.

Since 2000 he's won all of... 2 time trials before the month of June. Both were in 2004 (Algrave and Georgia). I have no idea what places he was in with other time trials he may have raced... maybe he had another podium or two.

140th in 05 P-N. I was thinking the same thing, that he did poorly in early TTs and then magically got better for the Daulphine or Suisse. However, after a little research the 05 P-N result was more of an outlier. While his performances in other TTs were not like his dominating Tour TTs they were still respectable top-10 finishes, with only P-N and another outside the top 10.

 

[kurtinsc]

140th in 05 P-N. I was thinking the same thing, that he did poorly in early TTs and then magically got better for the Daulphine or Suisse. However, after a little research the 05 P-N result was more of an outlier. While his performances in other TTs were not like his dominating Tour TTs they were still respectable top-10 finishes, with only P-N and another outside the top 10.

Well, he was 8th in Murcia and 15th in CI. CI was outside of the top 10... but the results were a little funky. Lance was ahead of Lovkvist and Pinotti and equal to Vino.

He's looked poor on some climbs... but his TT doesn't look that different then his TT "pre-June" performances in past years... aside from 2004 when he did quite well early in the season.

 

[Publicus]

Well, he was 8th in Murcia and 15th in CI. CI was outside of the top 10... but the results were a little funky. Lance was ahead of Lovkvist and Pinotti and equal to Vino.

He's looked poor on some climbs... but his TT doesn't look that different then his TT "pre-June" performances in past years... aside from 2004 when he did quite well early in the season.

Correction, he's looked poor on all of the climbs.

I think the real question is how much can be drawn from his pre-retirement performances. He was a full time professional athlete at the time and obviously younger. Post-unretirement he's not been a full time professional athlete, preferring to be a part-time cyclist and part-time ambassador/celebrity (which I'm not judging). The notion that he will simply turn it on this year because he has done so in the past, is a questionable one to me. He's 38, a new father, and he's making a ton more money NOT cycling than he is from cycling. I don't think the desire is there anymore. He looks like he's going through the motions more than anything.

But this is just my opinion. Perhaps he does show and prove Sunday that he's still got something.

 

[red_flanders]

Correction, he's looked poor on all of the climbs.

I think the real question is how much can be drawn from his pre-retirement performances. He was a full time professional athlete at the time and obviously younger. Post-unretirement he's not been a full time professional athlete, preferring to be a part-time cyclist and part-time ambassador/celebrity (which I'm not judging). The notion that he will simply turn it on this year because he has done so in the past, is a questionable one to me. He's 38, a new father, and he's making a ton more money NOT cycling than he is from cycling. I don't think the desire is there anymore. He looks like he's going through the motions more than anything.

But this is just my opinion. Perhaps he does show and prove Sunday that he's still got something.

He's still got something. I'd say if he places top 10 he's got something. I look for either 5th or a dropout. If he gets time early in the flats he'll get motivation from that. If he goes into the mountains even, it's over, and 5th would be a good result.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Armstrong in the Flanders top 10? Not on your life.
A group seat booking in the bus or a DNF, if it's a bit cold and damp.

 

[Publicus]

He's still got something. I'd say if he places top 10 he's got something. I look for either 5th or a dropout. If he gets time early in the flats he'll get motivation from that. If he goes into the mountains even, it's over, and 5th would be a good result.

I guess we will see in 48 hours. Frankly I think top 10 is a stretch for a guy who has struggled in all of the races he's entered this year, but I guess anything is possible.

 

[ferryman]

Top 10!! Aye right. Lance will be eaten alive on Sunday. Having said that IF he believes that riding the cobbles will give him an advantage come TDF time then I can see why he is riding. Or maybe he just doesn't see straight anymore and thinks he is 28.

 

[kurtinsc]

He's still got something. I'd say if he places top 10 he's got something. I look for either 5th or a dropout. If he gets time early in the flats he'll get motivation from that. If he goes into the mountains even, it's over, and 5th would be a good result.

I don't think top 10 is reasonable.

If he's in the top 30 I'd say it's impressive for a GC guy. He's done it twice before, so it COULD happen. Frankly I'll be suprised if it does though.

 

[ferryman]

if he gets top 30 after Corsica I will eat my Sporran!

 

[kurtinsc]

if he gets top 30 after Corsica I will eat my Sporran!

As I said... I don't think it's likely... but he HAS done it before when he was winning Tours. He's not a total neophyte on the cobbles like many GC guys.

 

[ferryman]

Not dissin the fact Kurt that he has done it before. But be realistic, now is now. That this is THE race for so many of the classics guys means Lance will do well to last 3/4s.

 

[this_is_edie]

LA is not going to finish - he'll pull out in one of the first 5 cobble sections. I don't think he remembers what it's like to fight for position before each section.

 

[BroDeal]

He does not appear to be in condition to make many of the splits. He could easily end up in a group that is far enough from the lead pack that the group calls it a day. I think he will probably finish in one of the last groups that goes to the end. If the weather is really bad then his chances go way down because lots of riders won't feel the need to suffer just to finish; they won't want to bury themselves or injure themselves when they will be needed for support in P-R.

 

[thehog]

What race? Sportful?

Novecolli


.....

 

[karlboss]

Thank-you. Doesn't matter what speed you ride 200km+ it still kills you and if you don't have the fitness you can't finish. Period. Me same last year rode a 210km race in Italy and whilst feeling like I was riding on air for the first 130km the last half killed me. There was little chance of holding onto anyone's wheel. I was hanging on for dear life. From memory I finished 210km in 10.5 hours! Mind you there were a lot of hills. I was in the form of my life and there is no way Armstrong will hang last that distance in the condition he's in. You can't.... there are timelimits at Flanders.

Actually it does matter what pace you do for 200km plus. Your body will store enough energy for an extremely solid 90 minutes to 2 hours...after that you need to metabolise fat and eat. You can't take in too much from eating so mostly you slow down so you get what you can.

For an example a guy like Chris McCormack will race an olympic distance tri...think 2 hr timetrial between 180 and 190bpm, but willhold a little over 150 for an ironman...

In your case floating on air for the first 130km...If your heartrates are like Chris's maybe you do the equivalent of sitting on 160...will feel super easy, but then you died. However if you are entering races over 200km I suspect you know this.

 

[Race Radio]

At the Saxobank press conference today someone asked Cancellera

"Fabian, does Lance have a chance on Sunday?"

"No."

 

[red_flanders]

Armstrong in the Flanders top 10? Not on your life.
A group seat booking in the bus or a DNF, if it's a bit cold and damp.

I'm not sure why, but I was talking about the Tour, not Flanders. No chance in Flanders. I'll bet anyone he doesn't finish, and if someone gives me decent odds, I'll take him not to start.

Sorry for the confusion.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

At Flanders Lance will ride hard for Grivko at some point, maybe early, maybe mid-race, and then will drop out once he has burned himself up.

 

[Publicus]

At Flanders Lance will ride hard for Grivko at some point, maybe early, maybe mid-race, and then will drop out once he has burned himself up.

That would be shocking since Grivko rides for Astana.

 

[karlboss]

At Flanders Lance will ride hard for Grivko at some point, maybe early, maybe mid-race, and then will drop out once he has burned himself up.

Why would Lance ride for Grivko? What am i missing?

 

[Hugh Januss]

That would be shocking since Grivko rides for Astana.

He's Lance, he does what he wants.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

At Flanders Lance will ride hard for Grivko at some point, maybe early, maybe mid-race, and then will drop out once he has burned himself up.

 

[flicker]

I think any fan of cycling with half a brain in their head realize that my Lord Armstrong is simply riding Sunday for TdF training.

And hella good training it will be for him and Radio Shack.

This will be an enertaining race.

 

[Jonathan]

I think any fan of cycling with half a brain in their head realize that my Lord Armstrong is simply riding Sunday for TdF training.

And hella good training it will be for him and Radio Shack.

This will be an enertaining race.

I don't see why the Ronde is particularly good preparation for the Tour. To me it looks more like he's working on his image in Belgium.