The Official LANCE ARMSTRONG Thread 2010-2011

[flicker]

Flicker it sounds like you have taken over for Polish. The Shack can do no wrong in your eyes. A team of mountain goats (Armstrong, Levi, Kloden, Jani, Horner, Paulhino) is what they are as well, but somehow, someway they will be the masters of the cobbles. Why? Who knows but that is the CW on stage 3.

I just think that the shack is a better all around team then Astana. However there is the ever present danger of Leipheimer or Horner slipping while getting out of the shower and lowering the Shack power. Really though, with no races for the rest of the year I think the shack will be awesome. I know that Horner/Leipheimer and the other riders you did not mention on the shack team can do something on the flats. I think that in the third week Astana team will not factor. Contador will be alone, except for the Spaniards on other teams.

 

[Tom T.]

If RS has to rely on "doing something" on the flats then they are in serious trouble. I'm sure the rest of the peloton will be happy to have RS pull them around the flats of France for 3 weeks.

 

[ckfrancis]

jesse jackson also said

Using the famous words of Reverend Jesse Jackson, Armstrong is just trying to "keep hope alive" for all his loyal subjects. As Publicus said, Armstrong made a similar statement last year but the truth was in his actual Tour performance not in his "numbers", not to minimize his podium finish but he can thank the TTT for that.

jesse jackson also said, "if i even dreamed that, i would wake up and apologize!"

 

[Mellow Velo]

he did just like the 5% improvement for texas was pulled out of thin air.

however, there are some interesting links posted around recently that contextualize the numbers,

for ex, braj claims 10% improvement (in his cp5=5 min max effort) since the dl and friel (a famous coach advocating power meters) commented that 5% would be a more expected improvement.

whatever berto is doing, i have no problems if he keeps it to himself rather than selling a lie or taking fans for idiots with his 'blood values' as texas does.

Didn't Brajkovic tweet that he's up 50 watts from his Dauphine form?
If so, that's about 12%.
Hard to believe he could find that much, so quickly, given how good he looked on the Alpe.
Could win the next 8 Tours with that engine.........

 

[altark123]

he did just like the 5% improvement for texas was pulled out of thin air.



whatever berto is doing, i have no problems if he keeps it to himself rather than selling a lie or taking fans for idiots with his 'blood values' as texas does.

Wow...just wow, so even if he has some secret illegal method of becoming a champion it's ok? How would that not be selling a lie or taking his fans for idiots? Do you honestly think all his fans believe he dopes? I am so sick of some the inconsistency around here, some people hate LA because they believe he is a cheat and has lived a lie, yet excuse the behavior of another person for similar behavior? I must be missing something......

 

[Publicus]

I just think that the shack is a better all around team then Astana. However there is the ever present danger of Leipheimer or Horner slipping while getting out of the shower and lowering the Shack power. Really though, with no races for the rest of the year I think the shack will be awesome. I know that Horner/Leipheimer and the other riders you did not mention on the shack team can do something on the flats. I think that in the third week Astana team will not factor. Contador will be alone, except for the Spaniards on other teams.

I assume based on last year's results, because this year their best riders have been Jani, Horner and Machado. But I'm not going to quibble with you, Radio Shack has a strong team. Astana has a strong team, especially for the mountains. Not sure how you factor that Astana won't factor in the 3rd week, but I guess anything is possible. Not very probable at this point, but certainly possible.

 

[altark123]

Flicker it sounds like you have taken over for Polish. The Shack can do no wrong in your eyes. A team of mountain goats (Armstrong, Levi, Kloden, Jani, Horner, Paulhino) is what they are as well, but somehow, someway they will be the masters of the cobbles. Why? Who knows but that is the CW on stage 3.

Armstrong isn't good on the cobbles?

 

[Publicus]

Didn't Brajkovic tweet that he's up 50 watts from his Dauphine form?
If so, that's about 12%.
Hard to believe he could find that much, so quickly, given how good he looked on the Alpe.
Could win the next 8 Tours with that engine.........

It was 40 watts. Not sure how that changes your calculation.

 

[kurtinsc]

If RS has to rely on "doing something" on the flats then they are in serious trouble. I'm sure the rest of the peloton will be happy to have RS pull them around the flats of France for 3 weeks.

I think pretty much everyone feels they need to "do something" on the flats to beat contador. The only GC riders that might even be able to entertain the idea of taking time on contador in the mountains would be the schlecks and perhaps Basso (though I'm not sure of that). And that's not saying they'd be able to... only that the idea of doing so might not be insane. The only ones who could entertain taking time on him in the TT's would be Wiggins... and maybe Menchov and Cadel.

Nobody can honestly believe they can take enough time on him to win the Tour in both the TT's and mountains combined to win unless he crashes or has misfortune somewhere.

That leaves taking time in hilly stages where maybe a late suprise attack can get someone 20-30 seconds... or the flats and cobbles where wind and the road may cause the pelaton to break up.

EVERYONE is going to have to be looking to take time from Contador wherever they can... because it just isn't going to be there if they only try in the mountains and time trials. He's too good.

 

[BYOP88]

wtf, everyone is parroting texas about the carnage on the cobble as if it's a given or he himself ain't gonna be risking. or as if the other teams will be passively waiting for the shack attack.

i bet that not knowing what vino will do, an excellent cobbles rider and as ever unpredictable, will give a lot headaches to texas.

Yeah I find it strange that Armstrong/Armstrong fans think that he'll be safe on the cobbles but everyone else will crash etc. Ok the guy has ridden Flanders at least twice but the way he's going on you'd think he'd won Paris-Roubaix several times and Contador/baby Schleck etc have never seen a bump in a road.

 

[Publicus]

Armstrong isn't good on the cobbles?

I don't think I said that, but I think he's decent, but no Cancellara. My point was, and remains, everyone (generalizing) seems intently focused on the possibility that Alberto will crash or lose time on the cobbles or that Astana is more susceptible than other teams.

That goes for EVERY GC candidate in my book. Radio Shack is not a stronger, more experienced cobble team compared to Astana. Look at the line up. I count Rast, Murayev (sp) and Popo as guys with spring classic cobbles experience. Astana has Vino, Grivko, and Noval. I just don't see an appreciable advantage that Radio Shack has over Astana on the cobbles. They are, to my mind, equally at risk of having a domestique fall/crash or having their GC guy fall/crash/lose time. I mean how many races has Armstrong left with injury (resulting from a crash) in the last two years, compared to his 1999-2005 run? Same thing goes for Saxo Bank. I know Fabian, Voigt, O'Grady and others will be fine on the cobbles. The Schleck Brothers? It's not like Fabian is going to literally put them on his shoulders. The risks are real and applicable to all (Menchov? I'm almost willing to bet he crashes).

 

[Dr. Maserati]

Wow...just wow, so even if he has some secret illegal method of becoming a champion it's ok? How would that not be selling a lie or taking his fans for idiots? Do you honestly think all his fans believe he dopes? I am so sick of some the inconsistency around here, some people hate LA because they believe he is a cheat and has lived a lie, yet excuse the behavior of another person for similar behavior? I must be missing something......

Yes, you are missing something - you are missing 'pythons' key point.

Here is pythons' quote:

whatever berto is doing, i have no problems if he keeps it to himself rather than selling a lie or taking fans for idiots with his 'blood values' as texas does.

Did Bertie announce that he was going to post his 'blood values' online to show "complete transparency"? (only to take them down when questioned)

 

[auscyclefan94]

Every leader can't rely on other riders to get them through the cobbles. FC can't ride the cobbles for Andy and Frank so if they are ****, they are going to be ****. It is plain and simple.

 

[eleven]

I assume based on last year's results, because this year their best riders have been Jani, Horner and Machado. But I'm not going to quibble with you, Radio Shack has a strong team. Astana has a strong team, especially for the mountains. Not sure how you factor that Astana won't factor in the 3rd week, but I guess anything is possible. Not very probable at this point, but certainly possible.

On a strict comparison, I suspect RS is a better team overall. on the other hand, I think Astana is much stronger than:

1. Most people (myself included) expected them to be
2. Most commentators give them credit for.

They might benefit from the low expectations.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

On a strict comparison, I suspect RS is a better team overall. on the other hand, I think Astana is much stronger than:

1. Most people (myself included) expected them to be
2. Most commentators give them credit for.

They might benefit from the low expectations.

Ya - imo, I think you have nailed it.

One point keeps being raised by many 'commentators' is 'strength' - while RS has better individual riders it is more important to have a team that has riders capable of doing their team roles and duties over 3 weeks - in that regard there is little between the teams.

 

[flicker]

Exciting tour

All the big teams have to ally and put the hurt on Astana and the Spanish teams early. If they toodle along and wait for the epic climbs, the Spaniards from the Spanish teams and Contador will cut everyone to shreads. High speed on the flats means crashes for the climbers, chance of missing breaks. Liquigas and Basso could also be good alliance with saxo/shack.
It is kinda cool also with this scenario because in the melee some smaller teams could get some good results. Plus Rabo/Sky can sit in and ride the train

 

[Publicus]

On a strict comparison, I suspect RS is a better team overall. on the other hand, I think Astana is much stronger than:

1. Most people (myself included) expected them to be
2. Most commentators give them credit for.

They might benefit from the low expectations.

I agree for the most part.

 

[flicker]

I agree for the most part.

Do you really think Astana team will be a factor in week 3? Excluding Alberto of course.

 

[Publicus]

Do you really think Astana team will be a factor in week 3? Excluding Alberto of course.

Barring injury, yes. Why do you think they won't be?

 

[flicker]

Barring injury, yes. Why do you think they won't be?

I am not a very astute fan and my memory is poor but in some of the earlier races they looked as if they were fatigued. Was it the Criterium International or Paris Nice. 3 weeks of insanity at the tour is a lot to ask from any team. How many on their team are tour vetrans?

 

[Publicus]

I am not a very astute fan and my memory is poor but in some of the earlier races they looked as if they were fatigued. Was it the Criterium International or Paris Nice. 3 weeks of insanity at the tour is a lot to ask from any team. How many on their team are tour vetrans?

Paris Nice. BEcause of injuries they ended up bringing a couple of non-climbers who were absolutely worthless. DDLF and Hernandez were injured, IIRC.

By that token, I would absolutely fear for Radio Shack in the 3rd week. Astana was shredding them at will at the Dauphine. Of course, I know not to put too much on that result. Same as I know not to put too much on Paris-Nice.

EDIT: Sorry, I didn't see the Tour question. Contador, Vino, Noval, Iglinsky, DDLF, Tiralongo, and Grivko and Navarro (started in 2006, but did not finish (DNS 16), also rode the Giro and Vuelta last year). Hernandez is the sole Tour virgin, but has ridden the Vuelta three times.

 

[flicker]

Paris Nice. BEcause of injuries they ended up bringing a couple of non-climbers who were absolutely worthless. DDLF and Hernandez were injured, IIRC.

By that token, I would absolutely fear for Radio Shack in the 3rd week. Astana was shredding them at will at the Dauphine. Of course, I know not to put too much on that result. Same as I know not to put too much on Paris-Nice.

Yep. Now it is July, a whole new ballgame. Lets hope all the Giro riders are rested up!

 

[Ripper]

IMHO I think the issue for cobbles is that they are typically harder for really light riders, as they bounce around a lot more. So the cobbles will present some unique challenges for AC and AS/FS. This does not mean they cannot handle those challenges ... in fact, I will be surprised if they have a great deal of difficulty. However, there may be some teammates who get beaten up on this stage (and this would include JB from RS as one of these potential victims).

I am curious to see how Basso rides, as sometimes his technical skills are a bit of a ? And how about VdV, Mr. Crash-a-lot

 

[altark123]

Yes, you are missing something - you are missing 'pythons' key point.

Here is pythons' quote:

Did Bertie announce that he was going to post his 'blood values' online to show "complete transparency"? (only to take them down when questioned)

I took his post to mean that he doesn't care if Berto cheats as long as he doesn't go out of his way to prove he is clean.....?? And that Python was ok with that. Just seemed to be saying there is a point as to where cheating is ok as long as the other behavior you display is a certain way.

 

[altark123]

I don't think we should be arguing who has the best team around them for the cobbles as they all have decent, equal support but rather who themselves among the contenders can ride cobbles. It seems to be Armstrong has the most experience and is a confident, proficient cobble rider, not a Paris-Roubaix guy, but someone who can ride them nonetheless. The Schleks and AC aren't as solid I believe (could be wrong).