The official Wilco Kelderman is the new Merckx-thread

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I'm rooting for Kelderman now. Not that I really want him to win, but I would see it as a victory for the large group of former Rabobank riders, who, for different reasons, have all failed to achieve a GT and/or other major win. Riders like Thomas Dekker, Weening, Reus, Ten Dam, Gesink, Kruijswijk, Olivier, Slagter, Goos and Mollema (not that I expected all of them would actually win a GT).
 
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I guess you must not really like the average GT winner of the past 10 years then.
You're not wrong in principle but I disagree about the overall assessment. A lot of worthy winners and few instances in which a superior lieutenant was held back for a teammate. However, I was pleased when Contador beat Armstrong, displeased when Froome was held back for Wiggins, displeased when Landa was held back for Aru (though pleased Contador fought to a win without much of a team),
 
I would like to see Kelderman win. He can, he should, he might..........sums up this Giro in general for me. This one is going down to the wire oddly in the same way as the Tour it seems except that TT was a much better course. If Sunweb end up with two on the podium it will top off a great season year for them with the Vuelta still in progress and maybe more wins to come.
 
You're not wrong in principle but I disagree about the overall assessment. A lot of worthy winners and few instances in which a superior lieutenant was held back for a teammate. However, I was pleased when Contador beat Armstrong, displeased when Froome was held back for Wiggins, displeased when Landa was held back for Aru (though pleased Contador fought to a win without much of a team),
I also remember one TDF when Landa was dragging Froome's ass to the finishline. But that's why i said "average winner". I know it wasn't the case in every GT, but it's quite common for a lieutenant to be better on crucial moments. However, the fact that Hindley didn't (have to) wait for Kelderman on the queen stage, and still is behind Kelderman in the GC, and likely will lose additional time with the upcoming ITT, tells me two things: Hindley isn't truly "a lieutenant" or else he would have stuck with Kelderman on Stelvio, and secondly the hierarchy within the team is warranted.

It is also quite common for a lieutenant, when finally given the possibility to ride as a leader, to ultimately falter. Poels, Landa, Porte, Soler... It then turns out to be less evident than previously thought, when they were riding for a leader.
 
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While Kelderman is clearly not the strongest at the moment, he had to fight for the maglia rosa. He did, and he earned it the hard way. Dropping Almeida turned out to be the easy part. The suffering started after that. These are the days that define Kelderman's career and this stage gave his career a new heroic dimension. As a fan, I didn't like Kelderman losing time. But it means a spectacular final of the Giro. Giro would have been over now if Kelderman would have finished with Hart and Hindley yesterday.

If he manages to take the maglia rosa to Milano, he's a worthy winner. If he loses it, he wasn't strong enough. Simple as that. Here's hoping he keeps it. He can do it if he recovers in time. And that's a big if. Dennis, Castroviejo, Ganna and friends are going to hammer it down on saturday. And who knows what will happen today.
 
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I'm rooting for Kelderman now. Not that I really want him to win, but I would see it as a victory for the large group of former Rabobank riders, who, for different reasons, have all failed to achieve a GT and/or other major win. Riders like Thomas Dekker, Weening, Reus, Ten Dam, Gesink, Kruijswijk, Olivier, Slagter, Goos and Mollema (not that I expected all of them would actually win a GT).
They all were supposed to win. I saw their threads.
 
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I also remember one TDF when Landa was dragging Froome's ass to the finishline. But that's why i said "average winner". I know it wasn't the case in every GT, but it's quite common for a lieutenant to be better on crucial moments. However, the fact that Hindley didn't (have to) wait for Kelderman on the queen stage, and still is behind Kelderman in the GC, and likely will lose additional time with the upcoming ITT, tells me two things: Hindley isn't truly "a lieutenant" or else he would have stuck with Kelderman on Stelvio, and secondly the hierarchy within the team is warranted.

It is also quite common for a lieutenant, when finally given the possibility to ride as a leader, to ultimately falter. Poels, Landa, Porte, Soler... It then turns out to be less evident than previously thought, when they were riding for a leader.
Are we comparing Keldermans ability to Froome cause I'm not sure I've ever hated on Froome that much.
 
Since the 1990s, there has only been one real world class Dutch rider destined to win several GT's. His name is Tom Dumoulin.
One tier below that are riders like Kelderman and Kruijswijk, who are capable enough to win a single GT if the stars align for them. Kruijswijk had his moment in 2016 and failed. This is Kelderman's moment.
 
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Kelderman took 37s out of TGH in the stage 14 ITT, and took 13s out of TGH in the Tirreno 10km ITT. I think he's not likely to gain over 25 seconds.

Hindley it just depends on if he actually did go balls deep in that stage 14 ITT. If he did and that's what his ITT is like then they *** up yesterday cause they could never bet 2 horses like that.
 
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There's 2 serious questions for me.

  1. Did Hindley go full in the stage 14 ITT.
  2. Did TGH go full on the final climb today?
  1. The last ITT will be a different story. Just 15 km, Hindley/TGH are more motivated and probably in a better form than Kelderman. It will be hard for the latter to gain any time there if he loses the lead in Sestriere.
  2. No - that's my impression. The pair slowed down on the last climb. Had Hindley cooperated they could've put another minute into Kelderman (it's a pity that he didn't).
 
  1. The last ITT will be a different story. Just 15 km, Hindley/TGH are more motivated and probably in a better form than Kelderman. It will be hard for the latter to gain any time there if he loses the lead in Sestriere.
  2. No - that's my impression. The pair slowed down on the last climb. Had Hindley cooperated they could've put another minute into Kelderman (it's a pity that he didn't).
I think Kelderman might straight out lose the ITT to TGH, and gain like 20-25 at the very max. Hindley's ITT I just don't know. He actually was only 6s back to TGH in Tirreno but I have no idea what his normal ITTs is like.

Feel TGH is the favorite right now tbh.
 
I continue to think that Sunweb did the right thing yesterday. Kelderman was looking weaker and weaker -- there's no guarantee he would have been able to gain with Hindley leading him; Hart might have even taken pink if Hindley was yoked to Kelderman. I think Sunweb are better off having 2 cards to play on Sestriere(s).

It's been a great tour for Kelderman, but to be fair he hasn't exactly blown lots of riders off his wheel, and his past suggests caution. I do hope he wins; he's fought hard and ridden smart. But he's going to have to find a way to close this out himself.
 
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  1. The last ITT will be a different story. Just 15 km, Hindley/TGH are more motivated and probably in a better form than Kelderman. It will be hard for the latter to gain any time there if he loses the lead in Sestriere.
  2. No - that's my impression. The pair slowed down on the last climb. Had Hindley cooperated they could've put another minute into Kelderman (it's a pity that he didn't).
Hindley cooperating with Hart would have been about the stupidest thing he could have possibly done. I can’t see a single benefit to that in any way, unless Hindley wants a move to Ineos next year. And even in that case, he would surely have a better negotiating position as a Giro winner, which he would not be if he worked with Tao on the final climb yesterday.
 
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Hindley cooperating with Hart would have been about the stupidest thing he could have possibly done. I can’t see a single benefit to that in any way, unless Hindley wants a move to Ineos next year. And even in that case, he would surely have a better negotiating position as a Giro winner, which he would not be if he worked with Tao on the final climb yesterday.
How would HIndlay's chances for Giro lower if he had cooperated with Tao? His situation (regarding Tao) would be the same but he would gain advantage over Kelderman (but obviously team orders prevailed). It's clear that the Giro leader is not the strongest guy and that's why I'm disappointed with that.
 
How would HIndlay's chances for Giro lower if he had cooperated with Tao? His situation (regarding Tao) would be the same but he would gain advantage over Kelderman (but obviously team orders prevailed). It's clear that the Giro leader is not the strongest guy and that's why I'm disappointed with that.
His situation with Tao would not be the same. If Hindley works with Tao, his chance of winning the stage goes from 90-10 to at best 50-50; probably less given Tao is most likely the better sprinter. If Tao wins the stage, with an extra minute over Kelderman, then Tao takes pink, by 5s over Jai, with a cushion to Kelderman in 3rd.


Hindley is now ahead of TGH on GC, by virtue of not working on the climb. Now Tao has to put time into Kelderman AND Hindley on the Sestriere stage, because he can’t be certain of beating either of them in the TT on Sunday.

The only way Hindley’s chances of winning the Giro could be any better would be if Tao had worked a bit harder on the final climb to put more time into Kelderman, and put Hindley himself into pink.
 
How would HIndlay's chances for Giro lower if he had cooperated with Tao? His situation (regarding Tao) would be the same but he would gain advantage over Kelderman (but obviously team orders prevailed). It's clear that the Giro leader is not the strongest guy and that's why I'm disappointed with that.
1/ Toa would have had to dig less deep (->towards overall fitness/fatigue)
2/ Hindley would have had to work more (->towards overall fitness/fatigue)
3/ Hindley would have had a harder time winning the sprint for victory + boni seconds
4/ They would have distanced Kelderman further, perhaps enough to be out of contention to win the Giro. Which would not be beneficial to Hindley, considering it would mean that Hart would only have to follow Hindley on saturday, considering Hart is the better ITT'er of the two.

Working together with Hart would have been about the dumbest thing he could have done, and basically it would have ensured Hart to win the Giro. The only option other than sticking in Hart's wheel, was to attack and drop Hart.
 

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