The Olympic Road Race 2016. Rio de Janeiro. 253km

[Arked]

Kwiatkowski climbing form is big unknown. In Tour of Poland he simply crashed out of competition before any serious climbing even started.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

I'd lmao if every nation just sends one rider into the break because nobody wants to work and at the end all the favorites aren't even close to win because the break gets a huge advantage

 

[happytramp]

Re:

Wont be Team GB if it's anything like the last Olympics.

They probably see themselves at the front of the peloton, in a long line, carefully pacing Froome up the climb as one by one riders are shelled out the back.....

 

[Hayabusa]

Went for France, I reckon they've got a really good team and won't be so tightly controlled. Bardet probably the individual winner for me.

 

[silvergrenade]

Re: Re:

Wont be Team GB if it's anything like the last Olympics.

They probably see themselves at the front of the peloton, in a long line, carefully pacing Froome up the climb as one by one riders are shelled out the back.....

They dont win by being stupid.

 

[jens_attacks]

Impossible to control. Probably like in 2012, a surprising winner

I'm saying pantano. Or diego rosa.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

I honestly think Yates has a better chance than Froome.

England will be all out for Froome.

So Geraint will be on his own?

No, he'll work for his leader

'England' is not GB. In fact technically it should be GB and Norhern Ireland. But 'England' does not encompass all the country. Especially considering 2/5 weren't born there, and 1 of them is a proud welshman.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Technically, it should be Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the Crown Dependencies (Jersey, Guernsey and Isle of Man) and some of the British Overseas Territories (Anguilla, Falklands, Gibraltar, Montserrat, Pitcairn Islands, St Helena Ascension and Tristan da Cunha, and Turks & Caicos, but not Bermuda, Caymans or British Virgin Islands, which have their own Olympic committees).

 

[The Barb]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

I think Valverde is more likely to win than any other rider, but he is much more likely not to win than to win

I agree and I would also apply the same comment to Nibali who I would like to see win.

I think Porte is the most likely winner, might sound odd coming from me if you read the LRP thread but horses for courses.

Weak team support for LRP though excluding Rohan.

No way is he close to the "most likely winner" but I am amazed he is liberally available at 100-1. Shows how open a race this is.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

Kwiatko. Easy. I would say it is taylormade for him. Probably the fastest out of them and Majka will easily get him through the difficult part.

Very good in TT for last 30 km.

Can handle 250 km easily.

Top favorit for me.

Did you look at the course?... It's too hard for him.

Yes I looked. Several times. Probably course is in reality harder then it looks on paper, but I cannot see here any problem for Kwiatko 2013/2014 version. Unless he forgot how to climb in Sky.

Top Contador hardly got few seconds on him in TA 2014 in stage 4 that had the similar amount of climbing. Kwiatko is probably easy to break in mountain stage races after one hard stage, but in one day race he should be OK, especially if he has Majka as a support. For sure he can lose some seconds but there is still a lot of flat where he can get is back. Unless Dumoulin joins Froome, Nibali and Valverde and they TT to finish.

33:1 is quite alluring.

 

[Night Rider]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

I think Valverde is more likely to win than any other rider, but he is much more likely not to win than to win

I agree and I would also apply the same comment to Nibali who I would like to see win.

I think Porte is the most likely winner, might sound odd coming from me if you read the LRP thread but horses for courses.

Weak team support for LRP though excluding Rohan.

No way is he close to the "most likely winner" but I am amazed he is liberally available at 100-1. Shows how open a race this is.

Which site is taking bets? I didn't think you could bet on the Olympics? (update: everyone taking bets except the site I bet with )

Imagine winning a grand on LRP :lol:

 

[Jungle Cycle]

BIG discussion between UCI x Rio authorities. UCI wants to close ALL the course for them to train.. since lots of the course is in the middle of a on going olympics, this should be a lost fight. Lets see...

 

[Laplaz]

Cummings or Wellens.

 

[robin440]

Cummings winning would be cool, but in which scenario could he win, early breakaway? Or long solo attack? I don't see him outclimbing Froome

 

[Bardamu]

Re:

Cummings winning would be cool, but in which scenario could he win, early breakaway? Or long solo attack? I don't see him outclimbing Froome

Group reaches summit of last climb with Froome, Valverde, Nibali, Purito, Mollema, Bardet and Poels. Cummings just behind. First group looks at eachother and Cummings attacks directly when he catches up,Purito follows him and gets silver. Valverde wins sprint for bronze. Purito angry at Valverde.

 

[TMP402]

Re:

Cummings winning would be cool, but in which scenario could he win, early breakaway? Or long solo attack? I don't see him outclimbing Froome

He outclimbed Nibali and it wasn't even close. Not unrealistic to say he could be in the top 10 climbers on the day. If Cummings had focused on the road earlier in his career and didn't have his phobia of being at the front of the peloton I don't doubt he could have podiumed a GT, or better. In other words in a slightly different universe he would have a similar palmares to Quintana, Rodriguez, etc and would belong up there with the favourites. But that universe doesn't exist and instead he is the World Tour's premier specialist stage hunter. And in this universe, the big teams are surely not dumb enough to let him get into the breakaway. So he will need to act like the GC contender he could have been, stay with the bunch as long as possible and then attack on the flat. He would probably be the strongest guy on the flat who is also in the top 10-15 climbers. He has a Commonwealth Games Gold medal. He has a World Championships Gold medal. He has an Olympic Games Silver medal. The time has Cumm for Gold.

 

[Brullnux]

He outclimbed Nibali 4 weeks before the Olympics, when Nibali was in bad form...

Now he is much better, and would be surprised to see the same. However he cannot hang at the back of the peloton otherwise he will lose out very badly in splits. Not sure he has the classics experience, but he should be good.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Cummings winning would be cool, but in which scenario could he win, early breakaway? Or long solo attack? I don't see him outclimbing Froome

He outclimbed Nibali and it wasn't even close. Not unrealistic to say he could be in the top 10 climbers on the day. If Cummings had focused on the road earlier in his career and didn't have his phobia of being at the front of the peloton I don't doubt he could have podiumed a GT, or better. In other words in a slightly different universe he would have a similar palmares to Quintana, Rodriguez, etc and would belong up there with the favourites. But that universe doesn't exist and instead he is the World Tour's premier specialist stage hunter. And in this universe, the big teams are surely not dumb enough to let him get into the breakaway. So he will need to act like the GC contender he could have been, stay with the bunch as long as possible and then attack on the flat. He would probably be the strongest guy on the flat who is also in the top 10-15 climbers. He has a Commonwealth Games Gold medal. He has a World Championships Gold medal. He has an Olympic Games Silver medal. The time has Cumm for Gold.

Alternatively, he's an average rider who has found a niche in resting for days on end, then opportunistically winning stages. He has shown absolutely nothing in his career to suggest he has ever had the recovery or consistency to do anything in the GC of a WT stage race, and has also done absolutely nothing in any half decent one day races - when top riders are on form and fresh.

If you were being generous you could perhaps say he had the potential to be a rider like Voeckler.

 

[Billie]

Re: Re:

Cummings winning would be cool, but in which scenario could he win, early breakaway? Or long solo attack? I don't see him outclimbing Froome

He outclimbed Nibali and it wasn't even close. Not unrealistic to say he could be in the top 10 climbers on the day. If Cummings had focused on the road earlier in his career and didn't have his phobia of being at the front of the peloton I don't doubt he could have podiumed a GT, or better. In other words in a slightly different universe he would have a similar palmares to Quintana, Rodriguez, etc and would belong up there with the favourites. But that universe doesn't exist and instead he is the World Tour's premier specialist stage hunter. And in this universe, the big teams are surely not dumb enough to let him get into the breakaway. So he will need to act like the GC contender he could have been, stay with the bunch as long as possible and then attack on the flat. He would probably be the strongest guy on the flat who is also in the top 10-15 climbers. He has a Commonwealth Games Gold medal. He has a World Championships Gold medal. He has an Olympic Games Silver medal. The time has Cumm for Gold.

Alternatively, he's an average rider who has found a niche in resting for days on end, then opportunistically winning stages. He has shown absolutely nothing in his career to suggest he has ever had the recovery or consistency to do anything in the GC of a WT stage race, and has also done absolutely nothing in any half decent one day races - when top riders are on form and fresh.

If you were being generous you could perhaps say he had the potential to be a rider like Voeckler.

much closer to reality than what TMP wrote

 

[Ramon Koran]

Re: Re:

Cummings winning would be cool, but in which scenario could he win, early breakaway? Or long solo attack? I don't see him outclimbing Froome

He outclimbed Nibali and it wasn't even close. Not unrealistic to say he could be in the top 10 climbers on the day. If Cummings had focused on the road earlier in his career and didn't have his phobia of being at the front of the peloton I don't doubt he could have podiumed a GT, or better. In other words in a slightly different universe he would have a similar palmares to Quintana, Rodriguez, etc and would belong up there with the favourites. But that universe doesn't exist and instead he is the World Tour's premier specialist stage hunter. And in this universe, the big teams are surely not dumb enough to let him get into the breakaway. So he will need to act like the GC contender he could have been, stay with the bunch as long as possible and then attack on the flat. He would probably be the strongest guy on the flat who is also in the top 10-15 climbers. He has a Commonwealth Games Gold medal. He has a World Championships Gold medal. He has an Olympic Games Silver medal. The time has Cumm for Gold.

Alternatively, he's an average rider who has found a niche in resting for days on end, then opportunistically winning stages. He has shown absolutely nothing in his career to suggest he has ever had the recovery or consistency to do anything in the GC of a WT stage race, and has also done absolutely nothing in any half decent one day races - when top riders are on form and fresh.

If you were being generous you could perhaps say he had the potential to be a rider like Voeckler.

Nonesense in tirrenno in 2015 he was with the likes of contador pinot and Yates. This despite focusing most of his career on the track, no doubt he could have won several gt s if he had focused on it.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

No, Cummings won't win this race by outclimbing all the favorites but if there is one rider who can win without being even almost the best it's Cummings. I don't think there is anyone else who has such a great racing instinct. Look at all the WT races he won since 2015. Besides the Dauphine stage he never dropped anyone uphill. He used situations when riders didn't work well together to attack or when he noticed that the riders who would chase him will be worse than him. Everyone would have said it's completely stupid to attack in the tdf stage this year before the crucial climb started but he noticed that there is nobody in top shape in the break and that nobody will catch him on the climb so he has to distance everyone on the terrain where he is simply better than the other ones, so he just attacked on the flat.

Moreover it's not that unlikely a break can win this, since the race will be hard to control, and how many riders are there who will go into an early break and who are clearly better climbers than Cummings?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Nonesense in tirrenno in 2015 he was with the likes of contador pinot and Yates. This despite focusing most of his career on the track, no doubt he could have won several gt s if he had focused on it.

So that's it? In a road career of nearly ten years - the evidence to suggest he could have won several GTs, is finishing 6th in Tirreno Adriatico one year. A year in which he lost over a minute on the only high mountain stage.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Nonesense in tirrenno in 2015 he was with the likes of contador pinot and Yates. This despite focusing most of his career on the track, no doubt he could have won several gt s if he had focused on it.

So that's it? In a road career of nearly ten years - the evidence to suggest he could have won several GTs, is finishing 6th in Tirreno Adriatico one year. A year in which he lost over a minute on the only high mountain stage.

Or to spin it another way. Among the few (only?) times he tried, he came 6th in T-A at the age of 34 despite his lack of experience riding for GC.

 

[saganboss]

Re: Re:

Cummings winning would be cool, but in which scenario could he win, early breakaway? Or long solo attack? I don't see him outclimbing Froome

He outclimbed Nibali and it wasn't even close. Not unrealistic to say he could be in the top 10 climbers on the day. If Cummings had focused on the road earlier in his career and didn't have his phobia of being at the front of the peloton I don't doubt he could have podiumed a GT, or better. In other words in a slightly different universe he would have a similar palmares to Quintana, Rodriguez, etc and would belong up there with the favourites. But that universe doesn't exist and instead he is the World Tour's premier specialist stage hunter. And in this universe, the big teams are surely not dumb enough to let him get into the breakaway. So he will need to act like the GC contender he could have been, stay with the bunch as long as possible and then attack on the flat. He would probably be the strongest guy on the flat who is also in the top 10-15 climbers. He has a Commonwealth Games Gold medal. He has a World Championships Gold medal. He has an Olympic Games Silver medal. The time has Cumm for Gold.

Alternatively, he's an average rider who has found a niche in resting for days on end, then opportunistically winning stages. He has shown absolutely nothing in his career to suggest he has ever had the recovery or consistency to do anything in the GC of a WT stage race, and has also done absolutely nothing in any half decent one day races - when top riders are on form and fresh.

If you were being generous you could perhaps say he had the potential to be a rider like Voeckler.

Nonesense in tirrenno in 2015 he was with the likes of contador pinot and Yates. This despite focusing most of his career on the track, no doubt he could have won several gt s if he had focused on it.

look, i think that cummings is a talented rider but to say that he didn't win any grand tour because he didn't focused on it is not right. look at majka who is quite good on breakaways but isn't capable of more than a 3rd place on vuelta

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

Nonesense in tirrenno in 2015 he was with the likes of contador pinot and Yates. This despite focusing most of his career on the track, no doubt he could have won several gt s if he had focused on it.

So that's it? In a road career of nearly ten years - the evidence to suggest he could have won several GTs, is finishing 6th in Tirreno Adriatico one year. A year in which he lost over a minute on the only high mountain stage.

Or to spin it another way. Among the few (only?) times he tried, he came 6th in T-A at the age of 34 despite his lack of experience riding for GC.

And that's his limit as a GC rider. Everybody knows that, including him. And that's why he didn't bother with that. He rides to his strengths, and he's a perfect breakaway rider. Just like LuisLe was, Voeckler, Chavanel and many others