Teams & Riders The Red Bull - Bora - Hansgrohe team thread

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Hard to see Roglic as a serious podium contender, given that he has not been able to finish TdF during several years now AND that Vingegaard, Pogacar, and Evenepoel are all there this year. Outsider odds for podium sounds more realistic.
Personally I dont see Roglic on a TdF podium (let alone win) during his remaining career.
Lipowitz? For sure , he has the potential to further improve. Where he will end up within the next years- we will see.
Nevertheless I would not send Lipowitz as GC leader to TdF this year already. But a double leadership could offer some nice options for Bora RB to fight for podium, if things turn out the right way in some stages.
 
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In any case, I don't like the way things are going after Roglic's retirement from the Giro and Lipowitz's rise in level. Last year, I saw a certain German sector promoting Lipo more than necessary and a certain sector of Roglic's fans criticizing him too much during the Vuelta. Now, even more so, I'm clear that Lipo will be used as a weapon to question Roglic's hierarchy at Red Bull, especially by the German cycling sector. At the same time, I notice that a certain pro-Roglic sector will overreact, maybe thinking he could be the new Vingegaard for Primoz, and they're starting to underestimate his qualities. I believe that few people have followed Roglic's career more than I have and are bigger fans of the Slovenian than I am, in fact. I also believe that with his ceiling he still can be the third-best climber and GC rider if he's at his peak, regardless of opinions about how finished he is, as is said every year.

That doesn't stop me from being a fan of Lipo too after immediately seeing his potential in Romandy last year (well, actually I was already expecting things from him even before). He's not a young Jonas but he's not an ordinary talent with too much hype behind him either, the way things have been going last months, made him for me an obvious candidate for the podium at the Dauphiné and maybe for even the top 5 at the Tour, I see him clearly inferior to Pogi, Jonas, Roglic and Remco and also to Almeida, but I don't consider anyone else clearly superior to him in the physical department for this Tour, another thing would be in the Vuelta where due to his "heavy" physique I see him below riders like Enric Mas and others more adapted to the race.

So, this doesn't have to be an internal war. If everything goes well, Roglic should be the number one candidate without a doubt, but Lipo should stay in the standings and help Primoz if it´s necessary.
 
Last edited:
Jul 22, 2024
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You can see it again in the Dauphine: the team is too weak this year. Even today Lipo is alone while other teams have several riders, even riders who on paper are no better than riders at RBH. If RBH would really go into the Tour with a double lead, one would have to hope that Vlasov gets back to his old level. Because with a small weakness that anyone can get, you need a helper. Otherwise rider A loses time here, then rider B. Unfortunately, too many riders are out of form this year.

That's why I'm now in favor of taking van Poppel and Meeus along for the sprints. They then have to help on the mountain stages. Lipo and Roglic with Vlasov for the mountains. Plus a Tratnik to accompany Roglich, a Van Gils for special stages. And another helper for Lipo on the flat. In the mountains they are all gone. Martinez doesn't think he's in shape for the Tour, Jai and Guilio aren't there.
 
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You can see it again in the Dauphine: the team is too weak this year. Even today Lipo is alone while other teams have several riders, even riders who on paper are no better than riders at RBH. If RBH would really go into the Tour with a double lead, one would have to hope that Vlasov gets back to his old level. Because with a small weakness that anyone can get, you need a helper. Otherwise rider A loses time here, then rider B. Unfortunately, too many riders are out of form this year.

That's why I'm now in favor of taking van Poppel and Meeus along for the sprints. They then have to help on the mountain stages. Lipo and Roglic with Vlasov for the mountains. Plus a Tratnik to accompany Roglich, a Van Gils for special stages. And another helper for Lipo on the flat. In the mountains they are all gone. Martinez doesn't think he's in shape for the Tour, Jai and Guilio aren't there.
This.

Plus Roglic can't win. Pogi is by far the best. Jonas by far the second best. You don't need a dedicated team for the fight for the 3rd place. Lipo and Roglic with support of Martinez and Vlasov to fight for the 3rd place. Denz, van Poppel and Tratnik for flat support, maybe breaks. They he you can bring either van Gils or Meeus to fight for some stages. that is the right approach.
 
There is no real need to bring tourists to the Tour, there is plenty of GC talent involved in this team, to bring a strong and GC orientated team. Secondary objectives that are a bit far fetched from the get go are IMHO a no go. Today at Dauphiné first Visma and then UAE hit with everything and Lipo survived, Giulio was always there at the Giro, at Vuelta 2024 signs were already there. Tour 2025 will hopefully hit a sweet spot, on where not only team leader will perform stellar but the team will actually start to resemble an AAA team.
 
Tour odds as of today. Pog's have dropped since the start of the Dauphine, but is still the slight favorite. Vingegaards has risen. Roglic is 25 to 1 (~4% to win), Lipowitz is 50 to 1 (~2% to win).


BTW, Simon Yates odds before the Giro were 35 to 1 ... so it does happen.

tour-odds.png

Any changes?