Teams & Riders The Red Bull - Bora - Hansgrohe team thread

[Netserk]

well, realistically I see three guys competing for the three top spots, and Roglic not as one of them. Where does being a contender start?

Just to calibrate, how many (podium) contenders were there for the Giro before the race?

 

[search]

Just to calibrate, how many (podium) contenders were there for the Giro before the race?

in my opinion? Around 10 maybe.

 

[TrekCyclist]

Hard to see Roglic as a serious podium contender, given that he has not been able to finish TdF during several years now AND that Vingegaard, Pogacar, and Evenepoel are all there this year. Outsider odds for podium sounds more realistic.
Personally I dont see Roglic on a TdF podium (let alone win) during his remaining career.
Lipowitz? For sure , he has the potential to further improve. Where he will end up within the next years- we will see.
Nevertheless I would not send Lipowitz as GC leader to TdF this year already. But a double leadership could offer some nice options for Bora RB to fight for podium, if things turn out the right way in some stages.

 

[Netserk]

in my opinion? Around 10 maybe.

Fair. At least if Gee was one of the 10

 

[pablohidalgo7]

In any case, I don't like the way things are going after Roglic's retirement from the Giro and Lipowitz's rise in level. Last year, I saw a certain German sector promoting Lipo more than necessary and a certain sector of Roglic's fans criticizing him too much during the Vuelta. Now, even more so, I'm clear that Lipo will be used as a weapon to question Roglic's hierarchy at Red Bull, especially by the German cycling sector. At the same time, I notice that a certain pro-Roglic sector will overreact, maybe thinking he could be the new Vingegaard for Primoz, and they're starting to underestimate his qualities. I believe that few people have followed Roglic's career more than I have and are bigger fans of the Slovenian than I am, in fact. I also believe that with his ceiling he still can be the third-best climber and GC rider if he's at his peak, regardless of opinions about how finished he is, as is said every year.

That doesn't stop me from being a fan of Lipo too after immediately seeing his potential in Romandy last year (well, actually I was already expecting things from him even before). He's not a young Jonas but he's not an ordinary talent with too much hype behind him either, the way things have been going last months, made him for me an obvious candidate for the podium at the Dauphiné and maybe for even the top 5 at the Tour, I see him clearly inferior to Pogi, Jonas, Roglic and Remco and also to Almeida, but I don't consider anyone else clearly superior to him in the physical department for this Tour, another thing would be in the Vuelta where due to his "heavy" physique I see him below riders like Enric Mas and others more adapted to the race.

So, this doesn't have to be an internal war. If everything goes well, Roglic should be the number one candidate without a doubt, but Lipo should stay in the standings and help Primoz if it´s necessary.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@pablohidalgo7

I don't feel it's an overreaction to say Lipo and Giulio will likely first get leadership positions at some other GTs, before getting one at the Tour.

 

[Links2003]

You can see it again in the Dauphine: the team is too weak this year. Even today Lipo is alone while other teams have several riders, even riders who on paper are no better than riders at RBH. If RBH would really go into the Tour with a double lead, one would have to hope that Vlasov gets back to his old level. Because with a small weakness that anyone can get, you need a helper. Otherwise rider A loses time here, then rider B. Unfortunately, too many riders are out of form this year.

That's why I'm now in favor of taking van Poppel and Meeus along for the sprints. They then have to help on the mountain stages. Lipo and Roglic with Vlasov for the mountains. Plus a Tratnik to accompany Roglich, a Van Gils for special stages. And another helper for Lipo on the flat. In the mountains they are all gone. Martinez doesn't think he's in shape for the Tour, Jai and Guilio aren't there.

 

[Filippo_3467]

You can see it again in the Dauphine: the team is too weak this year. Even today Lipo is alone while other teams have several riders, even riders who on paper are no better than riders at RBH. If RBH would really go into the Tour with a double lead, one would have to hope that Vlasov gets back to his old level. Because with a small weakness that anyone can get, you need a helper. Otherwise rider A loses time here, then rider B. Unfortunately, too many riders are out of form this year.

That's why I'm now in favor of taking van Poppel and Meeus along for the sprints. They then have to help on the mountain stages. Lipo and Roglic with Vlasov for the mountains. Plus a Tratnik to accompany Roglich, a Van Gils for special stages. And another helper for Lipo on the flat. In the mountains they are all gone. Martinez doesn't think he's in shape for the Tour, Jai and Guilio aren't there.

This.

Plus Roglic can't win. Pogi is by far the best. Jonas by far the second best. You don't need a dedicated team for the fight for the 3rd place. Lipo and Roglic with support of Martinez and Vlasov to fight for the 3rd place. Denz, van Poppel and Tratnik for flat support, maybe breaks. They he you can bring either van Gils or Meeus to fight for some stages. that is the right approach.

 

[CyclistAbi]

There is no real need to bring tourists to the Tour, there is plenty of GC talent involved in this team, to bring a strong and GC orientated team. Secondary objectives that are a bit far fetched from the get go are IMHO a no go. Today at Dauphiné first Visma and then UAE hit with everything and Lipo survived, Giulio was always there at the Giro, at Vuelta 2024 signs were already there. Tour 2025 will hopefully hit a sweet spot, on where not only team leader will perform stellar but the team will actually start to resemble an AAA team.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Tour odds as of today. Pog's have dropped since the start of the Dauphine, but is still the slight favorite. Vingegaards has risen. Roglic is 25 to 1 (~4% to win), Lipowitz is 50 to 1 (~2% to win).


BTW, Simon Yates odds before the Giro were 35 to 1 ... so it does happen.

Any changes?

 

[FroomeWagon]

Any changes?

Yes ... Pogi is back to be the overwhelming favorite. Almeida's odds fell a little from 18 to 1 to 16 to 1 (probably UAE related) and Lipowitz also fell from 50 to 1 to 33 to 1.

 

[veganrob]

I would like to see some odds on Roglic not even starting TdF. He has a race before then, right?.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I would like to see some odds on Roglic not even starting TdF. He has a race before then, right?.

Not according to PCS or from what I remember of previous posts here. Just TdF next.

 

[Red Rick]

Yes ... Pogi is back to be the overwhelming favorite. Almeida's odds fell a little from 18 to 1 to 16 to 1 (probably UAE related) and Lipowitz also fell from 50 to 1 to 33 to 1.

Almeida drops slightly because Vingegaard and Evenepoel were garbage and the odds of Pogacar being taken out by space debris are presumably the same.

 

[Links2003]

Not according to PCS or from what I remember of previous posts here. Just TdF next.

It is normal that riders from the Giro have no other races before the Tour. Or only a very small one.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Germany, Italy, Australia ... if Cian would to stay likely by now Belgium too ... all demanding Rogla to cease the leadership. Guys this is just one of those hidden traps one can easily fall into, whenever building up an AAA team.

Relax.

 

[Filippo_3467]

Germany, Italy, Australia ... if Cian would to stay likely by now Belgium too ... all demanding Rogla to cease the leadership. Guys this is just one of those hidden traps one can easily fall into, whenever building up an AAA team.

Relax.

Either you are a comedian or I hope you get payed by RBBH for just posting such nonsense all the time.

of course RBBH should go for stages with their guys. They don't have to do anything to contest for the podium with Lipo und Roglic with their team. So of course they can attack on transitional stages, medium mountains or even in the alpes although the chances will be slim there.

 

[Links2003]

Either you are a comedian or I hope you get payed by RBBH for just posting such nonsense all the time.

of course RBBH should go for stages with their guys. They don't have to do anything to contest for the podium with Lipo und Roglic with their team. So of course they can attack on transitional stages, medium mountains or even in the alpes although the chances will be slim there.

Which rider would you take with you? Van Gils and who else?

It's hard to go on a stage with Roglic and Lipo, nobody wants them in the group.

In general, however, I would like to see offensive riding on any terrain. It also takes the pressure off the GC leader.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@Filippo_3467

When you say "of course RBBH should go for stages with their guys". So are you saying that Visma (minus maybe van Aert), UAE and SOQ will be doing that? If no, why do you want for Red Bull - Bora - Hansgrohe to ride like a bunch of amateurs?

 

[Filippo_3467]

Which rider would you take with you? Van Gils and who else?

It's hard to go on a stage with Roglic and Lipo, nobody wants them in the group.

In general, however, I would like to see offensive riding on any terrain. It also takes the pressure off the GC leader.

van Gils who seems in better form. Also let Denz, van Poppel or Tratnik go into breaks. Of course the climber will go into breaks in the high mountains but that's also to go for possible satellite riders. Would also love to see Vlasov get involve early on aggresively. Like with hindley in 2023 (?) the big guns won't worry.

 

[Rackham]

Lipowitz is at a decent level in the Dauphiné. The first and foremost expectation here is that they have a better Tour de France than last year, putting someone on the podium for starters and also winning a stage.

There's no "Lipowitz versus Rog" either BTW, as we already saw in the Giro that Rog was severely hampered by Hindley's DNF. They need everyone in top form to make something good happen next month. Two pronged attacks on Evenepoel should be a goal. And maybe more if Vingegaard has a hiccup somewhere.

 

[Links2003]

van Gils who seems in better form. Also let Denz, van Poppel or Tratnik go into breaks. Of course the climber will go into breaks in the high mountains but that's also to go for possible satellite riders. Would also love to see Vlasov get involve early on aggresively. Like with hindley in 2023 (?) the big guns won't worry.

I don't think that Denz is intended for the tour. For the Giro he was up there with Roglic and everyone. Now he rode Gippingen and looked tired.

Which climbers do you see in groups? Roglic and Lipo won't let them. You mentioned Vlasov. Otherwise I don't know which climber should be at the start. Not Aleotti, I don't think Zwiehoff either. Not Jai anyway. Martinez was planned, but I'm not sure if they'll send him after his form hasn't worked out so far. And then it was already over with the climbers.

Roglic, Lipowitz, Tratnik, Martinez (?), van Poppel, Vlasov were always planned, the rest were never really named. I think van Gils. According to Eisel, 14 riders were on the longlist the whole year. This certainly includes Meeus and Welsford, who at the beginning of the year still thought he would make it to the Tour.

 

[Filippo_3467]

I don't think that Denz is intended for the tour. For the Giro he was up there with Roglic and everyone. Now he rode Gippingen and looked tired.

Which climbers do you see in groups? Roglic and Lipo won't let them. You mentioned Vlasov. Otherwise I don't know which climber should be at the start. Not Aleotti, I don't think Zwiehoff either. Not Jai anyway. Martinez was planned, but I'm not sure if they'll send him after his form hasn't worked out so far. And then it was already over with the climbers.

Roglic, Lipowitz, Tratnik, Martinez (?), van Poppel, Vlasov were always planned, the rest were never really named. I think van Gils. According to Eisel, 14 riders were on the longlist the whole year. This certainly includes Meeus and Welsford, who at the beginning of the year still thought he would make it to the Tour.

Finn Fisher-Black, Adria and Sobbrero would be guys that are ideal for going into groups. In the end on the high mountain stages you won't win again Pogi cleaning them. So for breaks stage 20, 15, 10 and 6 are the best shots imo. They should go into those breaks.

 

[Links2003]

Finn Fisher-Black, Adria and Sobbrero would be guys that are ideal for going into groups. In the end on the high mountain stages you won't win again Pogi cleaning them. So for breaks stage 20, 15, 10 and 6 are the best shots imo. They should go into those breaks.

A few very good names in theory. I don't think Sobrero is really fit again yet and was never planned for the Tour. Adria could be a good idea, but with the rumors that he might leave the team I don't know if he's in or was ever planned. Fisher-Black was certainly on the longlist. But at the Dauphine, especially again today, there's little to suggest he could do that at the Tour.

 

[Filippo_3467]

A few very good names in theory. I don't think Sobrero is really fit again yet and was never planned for the Tour. Adria could be a good idea, but with the rumors that he might leave the team I don't know if he's in or was ever planned. Fisher-Black was certainly on the longlist. But at the Dauphine, especially again today, there's little to suggest he could do that at the Tour.

Then everything is a hypothetical discussions. They have the rider profiles to do well but getting them in form is something the team have to get right (and mostly don't this year)