Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Oldermanish]

It is encouraging that Remco is excited to do the RR. Most everyone else isn't showing much in the way of overwhelming confidence.

 

[kingjr]

Evenepoel could benefit from a strong van der Poel, for instance. If it's just between him and Pogacar, it will be very difficult, but if there's a tactical element to it, it could be a different story.

 

[Sciatic]

The OG double is rare, the WCC more rare because of the more seriously broad competition. Great achievements.
In terms of strength and effort; the GT double is much more difficult IMO. You have 42 days in one season to f*ck up no matter how strong you are. On risk exposure alone it is superior.

Trouble with comparisons and “rarity” of palmares involving the Olympics is they (1) only happen every 4 years and (2) didn’t allow pros to compete in them until (I think it was) ‘96. So many great pros never had the opportunity to do what Remco has achieved. This does not minimize the amazing performances Remco has achieved (and may add to) but folks shouldn’t put as much emphasis on how rare it is.

 

[Extinction]

Before Nibali you have to go back all the way to Sean Kelly '92 to find a GT winner taking MSR. So I would say that's a crazier and more rarefied combo than mixing in a Liege for sure. Even better if he found a way to take Roubaix and 2 GTs in a year.

I feel like we're not giving the double double enough credit because Remco makes it look so easy. Like of course he can just ride away, if he can do it once he can do it three more times. But it's so ridiculous and unprecedented that before this year no one had even conceived of its possibility. There were not long winter months of hype and speculation about it like the giro-tour. Sure it's only 4 race days, but a single mistake and it's over. And you only have a chance once each 4 years. Tadej could have had a couple off days or ill timed mechs and still pulled off his double (not that he did, to my recollection), or try again next year.

Seems we were all wrong, neither one of these riders was *the* next Merckx, they were both *a* next Merckx.

To the bolded, it would be really something if he does it again against this Tadej, plus Rog and MvdP. I mean if he just rides away from a Tour level Pogacar I'd be really surprised to be honest.

 

[Extinction]

The OG double is rare, the WCC more rare because of the more seriously broad competition. Great achievements.
In terms of strength and effort; the GT double is much more difficult IMO. You have 42 days in one season to f*ck up no matter how strong you are. On risk exposure alone it is superior.

The Tour is the hardest race in the world to win, period. Now combine that with the Giro in the same season and you are a hors categorie rider. And let's not forget Remco was 9+ minutes down on Pog, not seconds or even just a couple of minutes. I thus can't see how Remco would be a more worthy Velo d'Or to be honest. The idea that OTT/ORR plus Worlds TT/RR "completely trumps" the Giro-Tour double is wild nonsense. Add SB, LBL, Catalunya, etc and there's no wonder Remco himself calls Pogacar the best rider in the world. And that's who the Velo d'Or should go to.

 

[Cookster15]

Yes, Remco ahead of the Tour was honest enough to admit that Pogacar was the overwhelming favorite and the final margin proved his prediction spot on.

But Remco obviously feels good and is talking himself up after his TT triumph. If he can somehow beat Pogacar on Sunday that would be incredible. But I just can't see that happening. I sense Pogacar is now well rested two months after the Tour and will be just too difficult to follow. Remco's best chance will be to attack earlier than Pog and then hope Pog can't reel him back in.

Plus, I am not sure Belgium without WvA would have any advantage in team strength compared to Slovenia?

Just my $0.02

 

[Snake]

He'll ride tre Valli varesine

 

[KenFiamingo]

He'll ride tre Valli varesine

Bernocchi and Emilia according to PCS. Either way, great to see him add some Italian classics prior to Lombardia.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

The OG double is rare, the WCC more rare because of the more seriously broad competition. Great achievements.
In terms of strength and effort; the GT double is much more difficult IMO. You have 42 days in one season to f*ck up no matter how strong you are. On risk exposure alone it is superior.

A GT double takes more effort... that much is obvious. Is it more difficult to win? I actually think the opposite. When you are the strongest over 3 weeks, you are almost certain to be in the leaders jersey after day 21. To win a 1 day race however, is a lot less evident. Indurain won 5 TDF's back to back. Armstrong won 7 back to back. Froome won 4 (and should have been 5) back to back. When was the last time a classics rider won RVV 5 times back to back, or 7 times Roubaix back to back? Closest we have is Pogacar in Lombardia for the moment. To win a 260k 1 day race, it has to happen on that day. If you aren't by far the strongest, a lot can happen. In a GT, as long as you don't crash or get sick, you have 21 days to make up a deficit or strike the winning blow.

OG only happen once every 4 years. So winning an OG double + WCC double, you only have 2 or 3 chances to do that in your career. And to win on those 4 days in the same year, you need to be the absolute best on those 4 days, because you won't win those 4 days by sheer luck. I honestly don't see anyone in the current peloton, Pogacar included, who could do it, other than Evenepoel. Beating big specialists at the end of a GT in a 25k mountainous TT is not the same as in a standalone TT over 45k with medium hills at best. So if he were to pull it off, it would most certainly be more unique and i'm sure time will prove it.

Both Roglic and Vingegaard could have won 2 GT's in one year, last year. Roglic came close in 2020 as well.

He'll ride tre Valli varesine

He 'll want to follow in the footsteps of his big idol. Van Wilder

 

[Extinction]

Yes, Remco ahead of the Tour was honest enough to admit that Pogacar was the overwhelming favorite and the final margin proved his prediction spot on.

But Remco obviously feels good and is talking himself up after his TT triumph. If he can somehow beat Pogacar on Sunday that would be incredible. But I just can't see that happening. I sense Pogacar is now well rested two months after the Tour and will be just too difficult to follow. Remco's best chance will be to attack earlier than Pog and then hope Pog can't reel him back in.

Plus, I am not sure Belgium without WvA would have any advantage in team strength compared to Slovenia?

Just my $0.02

But with a caveat, Remco is in flying form and even Tadej can't necessarilly handle that lightly.

 

[Extinction]

A GT double takes more effort... that much is obvious. Is it more difficult to win? I actually think the opposite. When you are the strongest over 3 weeks, you are almost certain to be in the leaders jersey after day 21. To win a 1 day race however, is a lot less evident. Indurain won 5 TDF's back to back. Armstrong won 7 back to back. Froome won 4 (and should have been 5) back to back. When was the last time a classics rider won RVV 5 times back to back, or 7 times Roubaix back to back? Closest we have is Pogacar in Lombardia for the moment. To win a 260k 1 day race, it has to happen on that day. If you aren't by far the strongest, a lot can happen. In a GT, as long as you don't crash or get sick, you have 21 days to make up a deficit or strike the winning blow.

OG only happen once every 4 years. So winning an OG double + WCC double, you only have 2 or 3 chances to do that in your career. And to win on those 4 days in the same year, you need to be the absolute best on those 4 days, because you won't win those 4 days by sheer luck. I honestly don't see anyone in the current peloton, Pogacar included, who could do it, other than Evenepoel. Beating big specialists at the end of a GT in a 25k mountainous TT is not the same as in a standalone TT over 45k with medium hills at best. So if he were to pull it off, it would most certainly be more unique and i'm sure time will prove it.

Both Roglic and Vingegaard could have won 2 GT's in one year, last year. Roglic came close in 2020 as well.


He wants to follow in the footsteps of his big idol. Van Wilder

Because GTs are more controlled, but the engine required to win the Tour exceeds all. You don't win 5 consecutive Rondes, because you only get one shot on the day, but this doesn't mean not winning 5 consecutive Rondes signifies winning 5 consecutive TF is diminished in some way. The biggest engines go to the GTs.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Because GTs are more controlled, but the engine required to win the Tour exceeds all. You don't win 5 consecutive Rondes, because you only get one shot on the day, but this doesn't mean not winning 5 consecutive Rondes signifies winning 5 consecutive TF is diminished in some way. The biggest engines go to the GTs.

Like i said. Which makes winning 4 specific one day efforts more difficult. Especially when the opportunity occurs only once every 4 years.

 

[Extinction]

Like i said. Which makes winning 4 specific one day efforts more difficult. Especially when the opportunity occurs only once every 4 years.

It makes it a more statistical difficulty, not an athletic one if you have the ability in certain strategic moments. At any rate, only now could we be even discussing this, because to have an era with Evenepoel and Pogacar is exceptional.

 

[Oldermanish]

A GT double takes more effort... that much is obvious. Is it more difficult to win? I actually think the opposite. When you are the strongest over 3 weeks, you are almost certain to be in the leaders jersey after day 21. To win a 1 day race however, is a lot less evident. Indurain won 5 TDF's back to back. Armstrong won 7 back to back. Froome won 4 (and should have been 5) back to back. When was the last time a classics rider won RVV 5 times back to back, or 7 times Roubaix back to back? Closest we have is Pogacar in Lombardia for the moment. To win a 260k 1 day race, it has to happen on that day. If you aren't by far the strongest, a lot can happen. In a GT, as long as you don't crash or get sick, you have 21 days to make up a deficit or strike the winning blow.

OG only happen once every 4 years. So winning an OG double + WCC double, you only have 2 or 3 chances to do that in your career. And to win on those 4 days in the same year, you need to be the absolute best on those 4 days, because you won't win those 4 days by sheer luck. I honestly don't see anyone in the current peloton, Pogacar included, who could do it, other than Evenepoel. Beating big specialists at the end of a GT in a 25k mountainous TT is not the same as in a standalone TT over 45k with medium hills at best. So if he were to pull it off, it would most certainly be more unique and i'm sure time will prove it.

Both Roglic and Vingegaard could have won 2 GT's in one year, last year. Roglic came close in 2020 as well.


He 'll want to follow in the footsteps of his big idol. Van Wilder

This X 2: In a GT, as long as you don't crash or get sick, you have 21 days to make up a deficit or strike the winning blow. Suggesting that might be easier ignores this whole season's history. For two major GTs.

A competitor and team can start a GT as the strongest prospect on day 1. Every impact conceivable is still less than what can be experienced in those events.

Taking the one-off, non GT ITT win: if you are prepared and are the strongest you should win, without question. Crashing is a rarity and Remco showed excellent speed management at the Olympics to win. He trained to win the World's ITT but has done a lot to get to the day of reckoning and won by 6 seconds. Excellent.

The Olympic RR is a carnival event compared to 1 day classics. Regular team strategy is of questionable help. The Paris course showed that a motivated, strong rider could stay out of trouble while other contestants got stuck behind minor crashes and support vehicles. He also had Wout as the ultimate anchor on pursuers. He won that on very good strength and tactics. He hasn't won even a 7 day race this year, let alone a GT with a team dedicated for that purpose.
The WC RR will be a more straightforward test as he has good team support in theory. So do the other contestants for the most part. Given his natural and trained attributes IMO he has a better chance winning this WCRR than any GT this season.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Is remco winning by sheer power when he races for Belgium? No. He is just Devoldering the competition due to having Boon..., sorry WVA in his team.

 

[Berniece]

Is remco winning by sheer power when he races for Belgium? No. He is just Devoldering the competition due to having Boon..., sorry WVA in his team.

Lol, that's just bad trolling

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It makes it a more statistical difficulty, not an athletic one if you have the ability in certain strategic moments. At any rate, only now could we be even discussing this, because to have an era with Evenepoel and Pogacar is exceptional.

Exactly because it is statistically so much more difficult, in order to win it, on exactly those 4 occasions and only have two or three chances in your entire career, you need to be athletically superior, more so than you need to be in order to win a GT.

Is remco winning by sheer power when he races for Belgium? No. He is just Devoldering the competition due to having Boon..., sorry WVA in his team.

That's ok, NEXT TIME THEY WON'T LET HIM GO THAT EASILY!!!11!

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Is remco winning by sheer power when he races for Belgium? No. He is just Devoldering the competition due to having Boon..., sorry WVA in his team.

Only if Devolder was so strong that he was impossible to chase down even without Boonen there. If Devolder had the power of Remco he would have been the leader and not Boonen. He literally wins by sheer power if you don‘t superglue yourself to his wheel.

 

[Extinction]

Exactly because it is statistically so much more difficult, in order to win it, on exactly those 4 occasions and only have two or three chances in your entire career, you need to be athletically superior, more so than you need to be in order to win a GT.


That's ok, NEXT TIME THEY WON'T LET HIM GO THAT EASILY!!!11!

But what escapes you is that statistical probability doesn't translate to worthyness of Velo d'Or and currently that's Pogacar.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

But what escapes you is that statistical probability doesn't translate to worthyness of Velo d'Or and currently that's Pogacar.

What escapes you is that had you read my first post i partook in the discussion, you would have read i said exactly that.

So in terms of rarity, OG double + WCC double completely trumps a GT double, not even close. But i doubt that will be the most deciding factor when voting for Vd'O.

 

[Berniece]

In Belgium colors, it's the way I see. He was nowhere after MVP's attack, if WVA wasn't able to follow him, race would be over.

I have no clue why that would be the case. Why wouldn't the Belgium team, including WVA and Remco be able to close that gap? Knowing Remco was still in amazing shape and form?

 

[Berniece]

In the same way, I strongly believe Remco would not win without WVA. And never saw MVP getting caught after being alone in a 250 km race. So my opinion is very plausible.

So Evenepoel is able to ride away from people, but not towards them?

 

[red_flanders]

Belgian Devolder is a new one to me.

Also redundant.

 

[Wvv]

@Peyroteo94 You do realize that Remco was just coming back from the team car after a mechanical, when MvdP and WvA got clear the first time? And that Remco attacked at a point where éveryone, even Mathieu, was on their limit?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I know but my point is still the same, without WVA, the race would be over.

That's a completely different point. First you said he would not have been able to follow or close the gap because he was nowhere to be seen. That was a statement towards his capabilities, not towards his mechanical.