Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Extinction]

What escapes you is that had you read my first post i partook in the discussion, you would have read i said exactly that.

Fair enough, I hadn't noticed or overlooked the "in terms of rarity" qualification. The reason for this, however, is that some, before I read your post, have been arguing that if Remco wins WCRR and Lombardia he pulls off a bigger feat than what Pogacar has achieved this season. And I flatly disagree with that idea. It would make Remco a worthy runner-up, not more.

 

[Berniece]

Is MVP not able to get away after his attack? Did someone catch MVP in Glasgow, PR, Flandres? History shows that MVP would not be caught if WVA wasn't there. So my point is valid.

Was Evenepoel in any of those races? Besides Glasgow which just wasn't his type of race at all? So your point isn't valid at all. That's like me saying: Evenepoel would win the Vuelta if he rode it against Pogacar. Why? Did Pogacar ever win the Vuelta? No. So my point is valid.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Is this discussion about who is the better cyclist? Remco or Pog? 1 wins GT's and 1 dayers, the other wins 1 dayers. Throw in the odd 1 weeker for both. Hmm....

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Is this discussion about who is the better cyclist? Remco or Pog?

No.

1 wins GT's and 1 dayers, the other wins 1 dayers.

Sentences like this make it sound you think of Evenepoel as a pure classic rider like MVP, Boonen etc. It gives a wrong picture when “the other” also have won a GT.

 

[KoopaCycling]

Forum having some weird posts.

Evenepoel being compared to Devolder. I understand the though process behind it (tactics) but still. Devolder not even close to the rider Evenepoel is.

Evenepoel somehow still isn't considered a GT/GC racer by some people despite winning the Vuelta and finishing on the podium in the TdF. A podium that was clearly a lot better than the rest of the competition, even if there were obvious levels to the podium as well. As well as winning numerous one week stage races.. Weird stuff.

 

[Berniece]

Is this discussion about who is the better cyclist? Remco or Pog?

No, that's Pogacar

 

[houtdffan]

giro tour double possible next year

Lefevere hints at Giro-Tour double for Remco Evenepoel in 2025 - "Pogacar has shown that it is possible to win both in a row"

Tadej Pogacar did and completed both Giro d'Italia and Tour de France this year with his very best legs and with no doubt this will motivate others to do the same. Achieving perfect preparation for bo...

cyclinguptodate.com

 

[gze]

Is MVP not able to get away after his attack? Did someone catch MVP in Glasgow, PR, Flandres? History shows that MVP would not be caught if WVA wasn't there. So my point is valid.

The typical MVP recipe is to cook the competition first with his superpower: ultra-explosive efforts combined with his ability to recover faster than anyone else. Once cooked, it will be hard to get him back.

If competitors can create race situations against MVP that reduce the amount of interval, it will most likely benefit them. It’s like cyclocross races that are so muddy they become basically time trials, where WVA often outperforms MVP.

One vs. one, if the race is far from the finish, just don’t let him put you on the grill. Give him a few seconds on the climb and stay within your power limits. Then use the Paul Herijgers (ex-cyclocross rider) strategy: “It is better to be the hunter than the rabbit.” This means if MVP wants to start a time trial battle to keep the lead, it will be to your advantage because a time trial involves less interval than taking turns. As the hunter, it is up to you to decide when to take him back. If he abandons the time trial, he has burned a bigger match than you.

This only can work for the few riders who are, according to me, if not cooked, better rouleurs than MVP, like Remco, WVA, and Pogacar.

Pogacar, of course, could take up the interval battle as well.

 

[Andre]

Is this discussion about who is the better cyclist? Remco or Pog? 1 wins GT's and 1 dayers, the other wins 1 dayers. Throw in the odd 1 weeker for both. Hmm....

Plus Remco was third in the Tour...won La Vuelta...could have won Giro...etc etc.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Fair enough, I hadn't noticed or overlooked the "in terms of rarity" qualification. The reason for this, however, is that some, before I read your post, have been arguing that if Remco wins WCRR and Lombardia he pulls off a bigger feat than what Pogacar has achieved this season. And I flatly disagree with that idea. It would make Remco a worthy runner-up, not more.

That all depends on what you consider a "feat". I think doing something remarkable that only you might be able to do throughout the history of the sport, might be labelled just as much a bigger feat, than doing something plenty have done before, and plenty will do after. The physical in/output needed to win 2 GT's is obviously dozens of times greater than winning on 4 days only. That goes beyond question.

Is winning the TDF a bigger feat than becoming 5 consecutive times world champion in chess? It's a value proposition that can not be compared. I do not believe he will win Velo d'Or if he wins on Sunday, but i think if he manages it, he should be considered, since in that case he achieved something so unique it will likely never happen again. It will prove to be more unique than someone winning all 5 monuments in 1 year, because you only get a chance every 4 years and have to master two different disciplines.

 

[Berflamand]

Possible race winning scenario that's been playing out in my head:

Pog attacks very explosively on the first steep climb in the last (or penultimate) lap but MvdP is able to match the attack.

MvdP however is cooked from following the attack and can't relay which causes Pog to hesitate for a few seconds and the pace drops. A small second group with Remco (and maybe the likes of Hirschi and Jorgenson) joins them and while everybody is on the limit Remco attacks over the top of the hill never to be seen again.

Now it's probably going to be a completely different scenario but I do think a super MvdP able to compete for the win would be beneficial for Remco cause it's one more serious contender Pog has to watch out for.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Possible race winning scenario that's been playing out in my head:

Pog attacks very explosively on the first steep climb in the last (or penultimate) lap but MvdP is able to match the attack.

MvdP however is cooked from following the attack and can't relay which causes Pog to hesitate for a few seconds and the pace drops. A small second group with Remco (and maybe the likes of Hirschi and Jorgenson) joins them and while everybody is on the limit Remco attacks over the top of the hill never to be seen again.

Now it's probably going to be a completely different scenario but I do think a super MvdP able to compete for the win would be beneficial for Remco cause it's one more serious contender Pog has to watch out for.

Van der Poel was dangling at the back of a large group in Liège and only managed to sprint to 3rd because others kept bringing him back. A few days ago he got dropped by Hirschi on a 1km climb and wasn't able to bridge to the mighty Vansevenant who wasn't even deemed good enough to be selected by Vanthourenhout, in a 200km hilly stage. I would be very surprised if Van der Poel is the rider that will be contesting Pogacar or Evenepoel in the final on sunday.

 

[Extinction]

That all depends on what you consider a "feat". I think doing something remarkable that only you might be able to do throughout the history of the sport, might be labelled just as much a bigger feat, than doing something plenty have done before, and plenty will do after. The physical in/output needed to win 2 GT's is obviously dozens of times greater than winning on 4 days only. That goes beyond question.

Is winning the TDF a bigger feat than becoming 5 consecutive times world champion in chess? It's a value proposition that can not be compared. I do not believe he will win Velo d'Or if he wins on Sunday, but i think if he manages it, he should be considered, since in that case he achieved something so unique it will likely never happen again. It will prove to be more unique than someone winning all 5 monuments in 1 year, because you only get a chance every 4 years and have to master two different disciplines.

I think that's a good argument. Although when you compare the feats of Pog to Remco this season, and the Velo d'Or considers the performances over the entire season, then I must concede Tadej's got the edge over Evenepoel. At the same time, however, the fact that both achievements have been so outstanding (not to mention those of MVDP, and the crash marred seasons of Van Aert and the aging Roglic) just shows how exceptional the moment is for cycling.

 

[Berniece]

Van der Poel was dangling at the back of a large group in Liège and only managed to sprint to 3rd because others kept bringing him back. A few days ago he got dropped by Hirschi on a 1km climb and wasn't able to bridge to the mighty Vansevenant who wasn't even deemed good enough to be selected by Vanthourenhout, in a 200km hilly stage. I would be very surprised if Van der Poel is the rider that will be contesting Pogacar or Evenepoel in the final on sunday.

I think he’s just fine. He was also able to drop Hirschi in the last stage, and more importantly, MVDP keeps his cards close to his chest. He doesn’t go all out in these minor races if this gives him an advantage when it’s important.

 

[joe_papp]

Nah, the Tour is the Tour unfortunately. And it's not just that he won it after the Giro, which nobody's done since Pantani, but the utterly dominating fashion (bar the first TT) in which he won it. Moreover, that's been how he's won every race this year. As used to be said, extraterrestrial. If Evenepoel does win the WCRR and Lombardia now, he'll be close, but I think Tadej's hand trumps his.

Leaving aside the additional achievement of winning a monument in same season, seven other riders already did the Double before Pog'. Double-Double would be so unique that everyone would remember it, whereas I even forgot that Hinault Doubled not once, but twice.

I would even argue that a Giro-Tour-WC[rr] Triple Crown would merely equal a Double-Double. Remember, two riders have already won a men's TC!

 

[joe_papp]

But winning LBL + 2GTs wouldn't?

No. Because Pog' winning MSR would actually be a surprise, a nearly impossible task for a rider expecting to contend for multiple GTs in the same season. Whereas winning LBL and a GT (or two) fits with the program for that kind of rider.

 

[joe_papp]

Before Nibali you have to go back all the way to Sean Kelly '92 to find a GT winner taking MSR. So I would say that's a crazier and more rarefied combo than mixing in a Liege for sure. Even better if he found a way to take Roubaix and 2 GTs in a year.

I feel like we're not giving the double double enough credit because Remco makes it look so easy. Like of course he can just ride away, if he can do it once he can do it three more times. But it's so ridiculous and unprecedented that before this year no one had even conceived of its possibility...

This person gets what I'm saying!

It'd be an Alignment-of-Heaven-and-Earth type moment that we'd be unlikely to see again in our lifetimes.

 

[joe_papp]

I think he mistook MSR for LBL and his point is...

Just to clarify, I meant MSR because of how unlikely it is in the modern era for a GT contender to win both La Classicissima and even a single one of the three big tours in the same season.

 

[peterfin]

Some interesting win rates:
Races > 220 km: Pogacar 28% (9/32) - Mvdp 25% (9/36) - Evenepoel 38% (8/21)
Races > 250 km: Pogacar 24% (5/21) - Mvdp 27% (7/26) - Evenepoel 57% (4/7)
For who considers past statistics relevant ...

 

[Extinction]

Leaving aside the additional achievement of winning a monument in same season, seven other riders already did the Double before Pog'. Double-Double would be so unique that everyone would remember it, whereas I even forgot that Hinault Doubled not once, but twice.

I would even argue that a Giro-Tour-WC[rr] Triple Crown would merely equal a Double-Double. Remember, two riders have already won a men's TC!

I get it now, the rarity would be indeed unique. I'm just trying to figure out how Remco's gonna close a 9+ minute deficit to win the Tour some day. Lemond in his first Tour finished over 10 minutes down for the same 3rd, to then go on to win and overtake Hinault and Fignon as the new number one of cycling. But that was a different era.

 

[peterfin]

Sample is very short for Remco. If he doesn't win WC, Lombardia and 2025 MSR, his % will drop to 40% for example.
Second, Remco doesn't race classics that don't suit him. He never raced MSR or Tour de Flandres. MSR is ruining Pogacar's win rate.

Yes but we don't know if MSR or Flanders won't suit him and I assume also Pogacar and Mvdp are avoiding races that don't suit them most of the time? Also, his stats are still without one or more years compared to the other two where we can expect him to be better than in his younger years and the stats include his 2020 crash and the impact that had on 2021. These are just stats but I think they are remarkeable and point to his ability to excel in long races.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Some interesting win rates:
Races > 220 km: Pogacar 28% (9/32) - Mvdp 25% (9/36) - Evenepoel 38% (8/21)
Races > 250 km: Pogacar 24% (5/21) - Mvdp 27% (7/26) - Evenepoel 57% (4/7)
For who considers past statistics relevant ...

I posted literally these stats right before or after the OG.

Sample is very short for Remco. If he doesn't win WC, Lombardia and 2025 MSR, his % will drop to 40% for example.
Second, Remco doesn't race classics that don't suit him. He never raced MSR or Tour de Flandres. MSR is ruining Pogacar's win rate.

He only needs to win 1 out of the next 14 races over 250km to tie with Pogacar. If he wins 2 of those, he already outperforms him there. Keep thinking he is Devolder, lol.
And exactly which races did Pogacar contest that he would be unable to win? You are saying MSR, which was won by Alaphilippe and Van Aert. Even if you take out MSR, Pogacar is still only at 5/17 and Evenepoel at 4/7.

I think he’s just fine. He was also able to drop Hirschi in the last stage, and more importantly, MVDP keeps his cards close to his chest. He doesn’t go all out in these minor races if this gives him an advantage when it’s important.

Regardless of his form, i doubt Van der Poel is going to be the one to make life hard for Pogacar or Evenepoel on that course, assuming they are in good shape.

 

[Berniece]

I get it now, the rarity would be indeed unique. I'm just trying to figure out how Remco's gonna close a 9+ minute deficit to win the Tour some day. Lemond in his first Tour finished over 10 minutes down for the same 3rd, to then go on to win and overtake Hinault and Fignon as the new number one of cycling. But that was a different era.

There' a lot Remco can do to close that +9 minute gap.

1. Lose some more weight, he believes he can lose 1-2kg more
2. Proper preparation, and not crashing before the race would increase his base, which should help with having more power at the end of the GT
3. General improvement because he's getting older, and his body matures.
4. Train some more on descending

I'm not saying this will automatically close that gap, but it will definitely help.

Regardless of his form, i doubt Van der Poel is going to be the one to make life hard for Pogacar or Evenepoel on that course, assuming they are in good shape.

Maybe it's wishful thinking on my end. I also just want to see MVDP being able to contest these guys on such a course so that there's a slim chance he might be able to go for the 5 monuments.

 

[joe_papp]

Mohorič out of World's RR? Probability of Double-Double increases!

Genuinely believe it will happen. And if he wins Lombardia...shoe-in for the Vélo d'Or!

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Mohorič out of World's RR? Probability of Double-Double increases!

Genuinely believe it will happen. And if he wins Lombardia...shoe-in for the Vélo d'Or!

He already won Vd'O, it really doesn't matter what a bunch of journos think. Him winning the WCC is what matters, in terms of achieving something truly unique. He has 10 years to win Lombardia, he can win the Vd'O multiple times still. But this is a chance to do something i don't ever see anyone replicate.