Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Bolder]

Can't agree with that. At all. Like the expectations were basically that he is going to be a multi GT/monuments winner, maybe already this year. Are those expectations fair? Probably not. But they exist (see this thread alone). And I am sure Remco himself is not happy at all how this year turned out. So expectations not reached (yet).

Sorry, I meant "until" the injury. I mistyped.

 

[Breh]

Why is Salvarani talking to himself?

 

[Salvarani]

Why is Salvarani talking to himself?

Lol, why? How you figured?

Ah, I get it now. Do you have his posts ignored so you only see mine?

 

[Rackham]

You are acting as if his form this season was a natural progression of his early 2020 form. It was/is not, he had a horrible injury and did not get a decent build up after his recovery. Obviously no progression should be rushed, so that's a strange point to make. It however does not mean him or Almeida couldn't win a GT over the next couple of years.

My point about "rushed progression" can be best summarized by what we saw in the Giro, i.e. notwithstanding all the rehabilitation issues from his serious injury, Remco Evenepoel was literally seen sprinting with Bernal for bonus seconds whilst both he & Almeida were engaged in a battle for intra-team leadership... when neither were close to winning that Giro. Remember the "drama" when Remco Evenepoel was dropped on the gravel stage & Almeida took his sweet time to go back & pull for him? That melodrama was all pointless & I blame his team & Lefevere entirely.

So yeah, DQS rushed everything for whatever reasons. And no, I really don't think either of them can win a GT in the next 24 months, not when we look at the competitiveness at the top. I can think of quite a few riders I'd place before Evenepoel/Almeida on the immediate "future GT winner" list.

Evenepoel is currently a 21 year old good rouleur & TT rider, who also showed (even this season) he can climb to a certain extent. But he lacks explosiveness & doesn't pass the steeper climbs with the best. And judging by "normal" progression standards, it can take years & years for riders to develop all the combined traits required to become the necessary GT package.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

My point about "rushed progression" can be best summarized by what we saw in the Giro, i.e. notwithstanding all the rehabilitation issues from his serious injury, Remco Evenepoel was literally seen sprinting with Bernal for bonus seconds whilst both he & Almeida were engaged in a battle for intra-team leadership... when neither were close to winning that Giro. Remember the "drama" when Remco Evenepoel was dropped on the gravel stage & Almeida took his sweet time to go back & pull for him? That melodrama was all pointless & I blame his team & Lefevere entirely.

So yeah, DQS rushed everything for whatever reasons. And no, I really don't think either of them can win a GT in the next 24 months, not when we look at the competitiveness at the top. I can think of quite a few riders I'd place before Evenepoel/Almeida on the immediate "future GT winner" list.

Evenepoel is currently a 21 year old good rouleur & TT rider, who also showed (even this season) he can climb to a certain extent. But he lacks explosiveness & doesn't pass the steeper climbs with the best. And judging by "normal" progression standards, it can take years & years for riders to develop all the combined traits required to become the necessary GT package.

I understood what you meant, but i don't agree with some of your conclusions. "He doesn't pass steeper climbs with the best"... based on what? He only did some steep climbs, and that was at Burgos, where he in fact did pass them with the best (and beat the best). Or are you using the Giro as a benchmark, which you seem to agree should not be used as a benchmark (hence the "rushing" and rehabilitation).

 

[wheresmybrakes]

How about descents?

 

[red_flanders]

Maybe y'all can take it to PM. We re

So yeah, DQS rushed everything for whatever reasons. And no, I really don't think either of them can win a GT in the next 24 months, not when we look at the competitiveness at the top. I can think of quite a few riders I'd place before Evenepoel/Almeida on the immediate "future GT winner" list.

I don't think I'd regard Evenepoel and Almeida similarly with regard to GT potential. Has Almeida even won a pro race? I think maybe one, he won the nationals in Portugal? While before his injury, Evenepoel was on an uncanny trajectory of stage race and TT wins, plus San Sebastian.

Almeida is a nice rider. I don't see him competing for GT wins in the next 2 years, but Evenepoel? I wouldn't bet against that.

 

[Big Doopie]

Pomp

 

[lenric]

Maybe y'all can take it to PM. We re

I don't think I'd regard Evenepoel and Almeida similarly with regard to GT potential. Has Almeida even won a pro race? I think maybe one, he won the nationals in Portugal? While before his injury, Evenepoel was on an uncanny trajectory of stage race and TT wins, plus San Sebastian.

Almeida is a nice rider. I don't see him competing for GT wins in the next 2 years, but Evenepoel? I wouldn't bet against that.

whilst remco could maybe (huge maybe) more likely win a GT over the next 3 years, I'd say almeida is way more likely to podium one in the same time period.

 

[Rackham]

I understood what you meant, but i don't agree with some of your conclusions. "He doesn't pass steeper climbs with the best"... based on what? He only did some steep climbs, and that was at Burgos, where he in fact did pass them with the best (and beat the best). Or are you using the Giro as a benchmark, which you seem to agree should not be used as a benchmark (hence the "rushing" and rehabilitation).

To win a GT over the next 24 months, a rider needs to pass the Mortirolo/Angliru/Alpe D'Huez-esque cols (& the preceding climbs) with guys like Bernal, Carapaz, Pogacar, Roglic, Vingegaard etc day after day & survive 3 weeks.

Evenepoel is a long way from that & no, I don't think pre-injury he ever showed he was up for that either. At least not at that time, because he needed progression.

There's a whole load of people who thought he'd win the Giro 2020, which I think was a fanciful prediction (Ineos & Rohan Dennis would have mauled him). And there's literally a load of people who assumed he could win the Giro 2021. It's all in this thread.

So as I said, DQS rushed things & honestly, his fans rushed things as well.

 

[Open Horizon]

So, assuming Remco will recover from this season's disappointments, and will improve his bike handling, his endurance and his confidence over the winter, and what would be reasonable to expect him to achieve next season? Podiums in the Giro and Vuelta, to be sure?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

To win a GT over the next 24 months, a rider needs to pass the Mortirolo/Angliru/Alpe D'Huez-esque cols (& the preceding climbs) with guys like Bernal, Carapaz, Pogacar, Roglic, Vingegaard etc day after day & survive 3 weeks.

Evenepoel is a long way from that & no, I don't think pre-injury he ever showed he was up for that either. At least not at that time, because he needed progression.

There's a whole load of people who thought he'd win the Giro 2020, which I think was a fanciful prediction (Ineos & Rohan Dennis would have mauled him). And there's literally a load of people who assumed he could win the Giro 2021. It's all in this thread.

So as I said, DQS rushed things & honestly, his fans rushed things as well.

Interesting you would name Vingegaard, because 5 weeks ago, nobody would have. That's how fast it can go and why your prediction is quite pointless.

Stating Dennis would have mauled him is every bit as meaningless as stating he would have won the Giro. Neither happened.

 

[tobydawq]

Interesting you would name Vingegaard, because 5 weeks ago, nobody would have. That's how fast it can go and why your prediction is quite pointless.

Stating Dennis would have mauled him is every bit as meaningless as stating he would have won the Giro. Neither happened.

I really don't understand why you keep engaging people like Rackham. It's quite obvious that Remco's potential is the most divisive topic on Earth. To some, he was never going to top 10 a GT because reasons. To others, he could become one of the biggest GT champions of all time because he has been the brightest talent we have ever seen.

I was in the second pool of people and am still not far from there but there are questions, mostly about his descending skills, actually. I don't really doubt that he can regain his physical capabilities and I have seen enough to know that he is truly something special. And I have no reason to doubt that that special-ness will also translate into the high mountains.

It seems a bit to me that people forget how young he is and what he was doing at the age of 20.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't think descending is as big an issue as it's made out to be unless he's gonna get dropped or crash in descents where they aren't even pushing it.

Where his climbing ends up in relation to the other top dogs in GTs is more important, and I don't think there's anything to say about that other than rehashing our biases.

 

[Rackham]

Interesting you would name Vingegaard, because 5 weeks ago, nobody would have. That's how fast it can go and why your prediction is quite pointless.

Stating Dennis would have mauled him is every bit as meaningless as stating he would have won the Giro. Neither happened.

Vingegaard beat Pogacar in Basque Country. Did Remco Evenepoel ever beat Tadej Pogacar in a mountainous one week stage race? The only reason Vingegaard wasn't even mentioned as an outsider (top ten material) before the Tour is because he was consigned to support duties for Primoz Roglic. The fact he eventually got second might have been a surprise because with Roglic in the race he would have had a hard time making the podium. But he'd already shown he could TT & also climb.

And I don't have biases, I don't "pretend" to read the future, I just see what I see. I don't even care about age either, i.e. cycling isn't a linear sport where performances automatically get better as a rider gets older, or someone who is young auto becomes a GOAT just because he's one of the best at a young age.

Remco showed promise, won some stuff & some people got really, really passionate & notched up the expectations to sky high levels (including predicting a maiden GT win last year in the Giro). Just look at the thread title, i.e. no pressure there, right?

I mean if there's a new Eddie Merckx in this sport right now, his name is Tadej Pogacar.

I really don't understand why you keep engaging people like Rackham.

When I read stuff like this, it comes across as an attempt to create an "Evenepoel's official support thread, everyone else can get lost" sort of discussion.

It's misguided because I'm not even criticizing Evenepoel or downplaying his long term prospects. I only think he wasn't ready to win a GT before his crash & he certainly isn't ready now & won't be in the immediate future (next 24 months or so). There's just too much lacking there.

If that opinion ruffles some feathers, I'd say some fans should probably reassess their own expectations & their own role in applying pressure on Remco Evenepoel.

 

[Netserk]

If he was strong enough to win the Giro in 2020 at the age of 20, surely one would expect him to be the best climber in the Giro next year, right?

 

[SHAD0W93]

I don't think descending is as big an issue as it's made out to be unless he's gonna get dropped or crash in descents where they aren't even pushing it.

Where his climbing ends up in relation to the other top dogs in GTs is more important, and I don't think there's anything to say about that other than rehashing our biases.

If Andy was better at descending 2011 would have been a lot closer.

 

[tobydawq]

When I read stuff like this, it comes across as an attempt to create an "Evenepoel's official support thread, everyone else can get lost" sort of discussion.

It's misguided because I'm not even criticizing Evenepoel or downplaying his long term prospects. I only think he wasn't ready to win a GT before his crash & he certainly isn't ready now & won't be in the immediate future (next 24 months or so). There's just too much lacking there.

If that opinion ruffles some feathers, I'd say some fans should probably reassess their own expectations & their own role in applying pressure on Remco Evenepoel.

I'm not really a fan but he didn't show any weakness at all in 2020 before his crash where he was a full-blooded monster. I really don't see what was lacking.

 

[tobydawq]

If he was strong enough to win the Giro in 2020 at the age of 20, surely one would expect him to be the best climber in the Giro next year, right?

The injury changes a lot of things.

 

[Netserk]

The injury changes a lot of things.

You don't expect another year to be enough to recover properly and to prepare optimally for the Giro next year?

Would you say that nothing Remco does or not from here on could possibly shed any light on how probable it would have been for him to win the Giro in 2020 without his crash?

 

[tobydawq]

Would you say that nothing Remco does or not from here on could possibly shed any light on how probable it would have been for him to win the Giro in 2020 without his crash?

Good question, actually. I'm inclined to say yes even if I would probably be a bit more nuanced in my opinion than a simple yes/no.

 

[Red Rick]

You don't expect another year to be enough to recover properly and to prepare optimally for the Giro next year?

Would you say that nothing Remco does or not from here on could possibly shed any light on how probable it would have been for him to win the Giro in 2020 without his crash?

When was he back training? Wasn't it like 3 months after?

 

[Rackham]

I'm not really a fan but he didn't show any weakness at all in 2020 before his crash where he was a full-blooded monster. I really don't see what was lacking.

He was lacking real tests against the best riders in the hardest stage races. That & real tests in 3 week stage races. I have to see a rider punch up a 1st & special category col (& series of cols) with the best before I go "yeah, this guy has what it takes". A bit like Pogacar in the 2019 Vuelta, i.e. obviously not expected to podium but he proved in the race he had what it takes to podium & win a GT. Or Roglic when he started winning 1 week races like Romandie & Basque Country.

So give us something to go by, i.e. something more than a Tour of Poland, San Sebastian or world championship TT. I mean if any other rider won/performed well in those three races or performed like Remco Evenepoel in 2019 & 2020 in the races he rode in (at any age), people wouldn't jump to the immediate "next Eddie Merckx FTW!" conclusion & say he's going to win the Giro.

There was a hype frenzy & it was based on 4+4=9, i.e. take a 20 year old who dominated the races he's been in & extrapolate a linear path towards dominance based on what they'd seen thus far.

Of course now after the crash the conversation is permanently stuck in a "the crash changed everything" circular debate when he doesn't perform... even though he never did actually demonstrate GT winning abilities at that time before that crash. Maybe he would have with some progression, but at the time of his crash? No. It's just guess work.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He was lacking real tests against the best riders in the hardest stage races. That & real tests in 3 week stage races. I have to see a rider punch up a 1st & special category col (& series of cols) with the best before I go "yeah, this guy has what it takes". A bit like Pogacar in the 2019 Vuelta, i.e. obviously not expected to podium but he proved in the race he had what it takes to podium & win a GT. Or Roglic when he started winning 1 week races like Romandie & Basque Country.

So give us something to go by, i.e. something more than a Tour of Poland, San Sebastian or world championship TT. I mean if any other rider won/performed well in those three races or performed like Remco Evenepoel in 2019 & 2020 in the races he rode in (at any age), people wouldn't jump to the immediate "next Eddie Merckx FTW!" conclusion & say he's going to win the Giro.

There was a hype frenzy & it was based on 4+4=9, i.e. take a 20 year old who dominated the races he's been in & extrapolate a linear path towards dominance based on what they'd seen thus far.

Of course now after the crash the conversation is permanently stuck in a "the crash changed everything" circular debate when he doesn't perform... even though he never did actually demonstrate GT winning abilities at that time before that crash. Maybe he would have with some progression, but at the time of his crash? No. It's just guess work.

Well, Geoghegan Hart never showed GT winning abilities even while winning a GT. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Well, Geoghegan Hart never showed GT winning abilities even while winning a GT. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!

He hadn't, correct. But when he had to step up to the plate and become the leader of his team he did it and walked away with the trophy. He also had completed the Vuelta twice so was proven over 3 weeks racing.

I'm really hoping Remco will come back to his normal self next season as I want to see him up against the best. Then he can be judged.