Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Red Rick]

1/ They should make the race as hard as possible well before the final. Else it doesn't make sense to have Evenepoel attack. He doesn't have the zip or punch to drop other WT riders when they aren't on the limit. Else every Tom, D!ck and Harry could simply get in his wheel and he'll have a hard time getting rid of them. It also makes no sense to attack if the entire peloton is fresh and can get organized easily. If Italy, Netherlands, France, Denmark... all have one or two fresh domestiques in the chase, they can keep him within reach without breaking a sweat. However if the race has taken its toll, and he attacks from a group of 40, with teams being diminished to 2 or 3 guys, getting organized will be a lot harder. In that case, he will force bigger names to commit to the chase, which is in favor of Van Aert.

2/ If he can't get away solo and has some other strong riders with him, he should ride until there is a sizable gap, and then stop cooperating. He doesn't have a sprint, his leader is in the chasing group, he has no incentive to ride once the gap is established. He has nothing to gain from further distancing his leader, and towing rivals to the finish for him to be beaten. If his companions keep riding, he can attack them and try to get away solo after all.

3/ He has to attack before leaving the Flandrien circuit. He can tire his companions out if he takes the time, but not on 10 or 15 km. Having him attack in one of the last local laps makes no sense unless he can go solo, but at that point nobody is going to let him leave and the local laps aren't hard enough for him to get away solo anyway. Attacking from further out will invite b-tier or c-tier favorites to try and go with him, while the biggest guns will probably not feel comfortable going in the offensive too soon, risking to put everything in an attack that has a high likelihood of getting caught, especially with Evenepoel not towing them to the line, like he did Colbrelli two weeks ago.

4/ He doesn't have to attack too soon either. The sooner he attacks, the bigger the peloton will still be, the easier to control him. Having him attack with 100k to go is not credible, even for him, unless he's part of a bigger break initially, that might get some freedom from the peloton, when rival countries assume they have a guy up there who can keep up and outsprint Evenepoel.


So, make the race hard before his attack. It has the added bonus of choking (or dropping) guys like Ewan and getting rid of a lot of domestiques, meaning the bigger names will have to get their hands dirty sooner than they'd have hoped. Attack from further than what most of Van Aert's rivals would deem comfortable, so that they would not try to go with Evenepoel at that point, meaning he doesn't get the cream of the crop in his wheel, but guys he might be able to drop eventually on this course.

Yeah he isn't winning a solo if the peloton is too big. What I'm curious about is if the circuit in Leuven helps him but I'm not sure there. It makes chasing hard but it's also a lot of stopping and starting and very technical, and the hills aren't nearly long enough to make up for his lack of explosivity.

 

[Riek s]

The problem with Evenepoel.... Even if you are in his wheel... its not like being there is that comfortable.
It is not like riding behind a Tony Martin, or a Cancellera or VDP. He drives ridiculous fast but due to his low surface area the guy behind him has less benefit than normally. Van Aert riding behind Evenepoel will cost him a lot more energy, not sure if that is the place you want to be if you still have competition in your own wheel.

 

[Rackham]

Damn now I want Van Aert to win a sprint.

What if I said I'd die laughing if Remco Evenepoel wins the world title... with a solo attack?

It would be worth it just to see the self proclaimed highbrow armchair experts (& others like Chris Horner) eat some crow. Hell, I didn't even start the year as a Remco Evenepoel fan but you know what? I now like this rider.

And seeing all the commentators & others (including Eddie Merckx) attempt to chastise him like he's a schoolkid is just hilarious (like Merckx himself was never a hungry young rider shooting for glory...). But I unfortunately feel the opposite will now occur & Evenepoel will likely ride far too conservatively & constantly look over his shoulder because he's been bombarded with negativity in the build up to this race.

It's really wild to see people take one of the best new talents in cycling & want to turn him into a nameless domestique because they're so obsessed with WvA winning.

 

[Savant12]

The problem with Evenepoel.... Even if you are in his wheel... its not like being there is that comfortable.
It is not like riding behind a Tony Martin, or a Cancellera or VDP. He drives ridiculous fast but due to his low surface area the guy behind him has less benefit than normally. Van Aert riding behind Evenepoel will cost him a lot more energy, not sure if that is the place you want to be if you still have competition in your own wheel.

Pretty sure in the Euros, I saw Colbrelli taking it rather easy behind him. Yes, Colbrelli made some hard efforts to follow Remco uphill but that was that.

 

[Rackham]

Pretty sure in the Euros, I saw Colbrelli taking it rather easy behind him. Yes, Colbrelli made some hard efforts to follow Remco uphill but that was that.

Colbrelli looked like he was about to explode in the final meters of the uphill section on Evenepoel's wheel.

So the race was close to going in a different direction with a different result.

 

[Red Rick]

What if I said I'd die laughing if Remco Evenepoel wins the world title... with a solo attack?

It would be worth it just to see the self proclaimed highbrow armchair experts (& others like Chris Horner) eat some crow. Hell, I didn't even start the year as a Remco Evenepoel fan but you know what? I now like this rider.

And seeing all the commentators & others (including Eddie Merckx) attempt to chastise him like he's a schoolkid is just hilarious (like Merckx himself was never a hungry young rider shooting for glory...). But I unfortunately feel the opposite will now occur & Evenepoel will likely ride far too conservatively & constantly look over his shoulder because he's been bombarded with negativity in the build up to this race.

It's really wild to see people take one of the best new talents in cycling & want to turn him into a nameless domestique because they're so obsessed with WvA winning.

I think they're obsessed with winning, and Van Aert is the super logical favorite to do so. You rarely have the Worlds at home, especially with the out and out top favorite. It isn't some hate campaign that there is tremendous pressure on the Belgians to win.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Yeah he isn't winning a solo if the peloton is too big. What I'm curious about is if the circuit in Leuven helps him but I'm not sure there. It makes chasing hard but it's also a lot of stopping and starting and very technical, and the hills aren't nearly long enough to make up for his lack of explosivity.

I think it would help him to stay away, not to get away. Doing the local course solo should be easier for him imho.

 

[Rackham]

I think they're obsessed with winning, and Van Aert is the super logical favorite to do so. You rarely have the Worlds at home, especially with the out and out top favorite. It isn't some hate campaign that there is tremendous pressure on the Belgians to win.

I think we've reached the point where the pressure is negative.

They spend more time telling Evenepoel what he shouldn't do than caring about what he can do. Same with WvA, i.e. they're so focused on bringing in a bunch sprint I feel there's a lack of flexibility in their approach. Every other team which wants this race is going to want to make the Belgians work & WvA has a huge bullseye on his back.

I get the reasoning behind their attempts to get Evenepoel to do exactly what they need to bring in a sprint finish, but when you have such a huge talent I think some freedom wouldn't be a bad idea.

It's not like cycling is an exact science & teams can always make a race go exactly as they planned.

 

[Red Rick]

I think we've reached the point where the pressure is negative.

They spend more time telling Evenepoel what he shouldn't do than caring about what he can do. Same with WvA, i.e. they're so focused on bringing in a bunch sprint I feel there's a lack of flexibility in their approach. Every other team which wants this race is going to want to make the Belgians work & WvA has a huge bullseye on his back.

I get the reasoning behind their attempts to get Evenepoel to do exactly what they need to bring in a sprint finish, but when you have such a huge talent I think some freedom wouldn't be a bad idea.

It's not like cycling is an exact science & teams can always make a race go exactly as they planned.

This race being without radios probably makes everyone involved a lot more anxious about tactical fuckups.

 

[Rackham]

This race being without radios probably makes everyone involved a lot more anxious about tactical fuckups.

Good point. I'd forgotten about that.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I think we've reached the point where the pressure is negative.

They spend more time telling Evenepoel what he shouldn't do than caring about what he can do. Same with WvA, i.e. they're so focused on bringing in a bunch sprint I feel there's a lack of flexibility in their approach. Every other team which wants this race is going to want to make the Belgians work & WvA has a huge bullseye on his back.

Merckx is right IMO that there isn't much point in having Evenepoel on board if he isn't a (secondary) leader.

Apparently, he's allowed to attack (which screams secondary leader to me), allegedly to keep the pressure off of WVA and the rest of the Belgian squad, but assuming he drops everyone in a potential break, we all know that he could take it to the finish line.

The Belgians want to win at all costs, IMO. Evenepoel is the Plan B.

As for WVA I agree that a bunch sprint is not a guarantee to success. But neither is a sprint-à-deux, for example. They can ride the perfect race and still lose. I don't see WVA as this huge favorite with no one else even remotely close.

 

[Red Rick]

Merckx is right IMO that there isn't much point in having Evenepoel on board if he isn't a (secondary) leader.

Apparently, he's allowed to attack (which screams secondary leader to me), allegedly to keep the pressure off of WVA and the rest of the Belgian squad, but assuming he drops everyone in a potential break, we all know that he could take it to the finish line.

The Belgians want to win at all costs, IMO. Evenepoel is the Plan B.

As for WVA I agree that a bunch sprint is not a guarantee to success. But neither is a sprint-à-deux, for example. They can ride the perfect race and still lose. I don't see WVA as this huge favorite with no else even remotely close.

IMO there's just objectively nobody faster than him that's also likely to survive. Question might be how much of a favorite he is vs guys like Van der Poel.

 

[memyselfandI]

Fingers crossed that Pidcock takes up any big buddy who likes to jump with him from a small group and lifts him up to the barriers Bettini styleeee.

 

[Valanga]

Merckx is right IMO that there isn't much point in having Evenepoel on board if he isn't a (secondary) leader.

Apparently, he's allowed to attack (which screams secondary leader to me), allegedly to keep the pressure off of WVA and the rest of the Belgian squad, but assuming he drops everyone in a potential break, we all know that he could take it to the finish line.

The Belgians want to win at all costs, IMO. Evenepoel is the Plan B.

As for WVA I agree that a bunch sprint is not a guarantee to success. But neither is a sprint-à-deux, for example. They can ride the perfect race and still lose. I don't see WVA as this huge favorite with no else even remotely close.

He's probably even the worst domestique to have on a track like this.

• The low drag as Riek said
• The Leuven track seems to be a constant fight for position. Something Remco is extremely bad at.
• Very short, somewhat punchy climbs
• No point in having Remco as a lead out in the sprint

If Remco wouldn't be allowed to go in the attack, you might as well leave him home and take Van Hooydonck instead.

 

[tobydawq]

The problem with Evenepoel.... Even if you are in his wheel... its not like being there is that comfortable.
It is not like riding behind a Tony Martin, or a Cancellera or VDP. He drives ridiculous fast but due to his low surface area the guy behind him has less benefit than normally. Van Aert riding behind Evenepoel will cost him a lot more energy, not sure if that is the place you want to be if you still have competition in your own wheel.

Maybe they will attach a large balloon-like device to Evenepoel's back or make him ride in a feathered coat.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Every man and his dog knows Remco is gonna attack during the race, when that happens is another matter. It's the only way he can win. WVA is gonna have to rely on other teams to bring him back as once Remco gets a break, he isn't looking back, all in. Buuuut, I don't think he will be allowed to get away as he will get hangers on and he will cry because no-one will work with him. A Dane with their name beginning with M will win this race.

 

[Angelo1985]

Remco starts with number 13, he was junior world champion in Innsbruck with number 13. Is this a sign? http://www.thebikecomesfirst.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Remco-Evenepoel-2018-World-Champs.jpg

 

[topt]

IMO there's just objectively nobody faster than him that's also likely to survive. Question might be how much of a favorite he is vs guys like Van der Poel.

after such a long race I think Pogacar can beat Wout in a sprint, he came damn close in Tokyo

 

[Lequack]

Remco: "Is this thing on? ... I hereby declare, that I am not working for myself. Thanks"

 

[SafeBet]

after such a long race I think Pogacar can beat Wout in a sprint, he came damn close in Tokyo

But he didn't beat him. And Van Aert had spent an insanely high amount of energy chasing the duo ahead, which isn't likely to happen again.

 

[topt]

But he didn't beat him. And Van Aert had spent an insanely amount of energy chasing the duo ahead, which isn't likely to happen again.

it was photo finish and Pogacar spent an insanely amount of energy trying to get away on the climb, he said he was dead after it. I am not saying he would be the favorite in a position like that i just think its possible

 

[Red Rick]

after such a long race I think Pogacar can beat Wout in a sprint, he came damn close in Tokyo

Because Van Aert did all the work for like 35km straight and also decided to once again launch from a comical distance.

If Van Aert is relatively fresh the question is in how many million years does Pogacar never beat Van Aert.

 

[topt]

Because Van Aert did all the work for like 35km straight and also decided to once again launch from a comical distance.

If Van Aert is relatively fresh the question is in how many million years does Pogacar never beat Van Aert.

dont agree, 250km + races, reduced group sprint would be damn close

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Van Aert isn't always very fast after a long or hard race. The Olympics road race is not the only example.

wouldn't be surprised if he gets outsprinted tomorrow even if he's not boxed in. Guys like Pedersen could be dangerous if it comes down to a sprint.

 

[peterfin]

I think the race won't be hard enough for a final with an elite group like last year. We may end up with a San-Remo-like bunch. In the end it may be somebody like Stuyven (who knows every corner of the circuit) or Sagan (who is on nobodies mind) who goes along when everyone else is on WVA's back. I fear a bit that silver is again WVA's most likely metal.