Interesting article about the changes he made in TT position.
Position tweaks from a day in Specialized's wind tunnel pay dividends in Algarve.
Pogacar was not in great form at the Euros. Pogacar should in theory also be better in shorter efforts comparatively given his better punching/sprinting ability.
On the other hand, Evenepoel in Algarve seems to have taken a step forward in TT. If we compare it to his TT two years ago, where he beat Dennis with 10' over 20k, Küng with 16', and guys like Schachmann and Lopez finishing at 38' iirc... Even extrapolating that 20 to 32k, the differences saturday were a lot bigger to known TTers (Küng, Hayter...). If he did work on his shorter efforts that might also be less of a disadvantage in a shorter TT.
I think a lot depends on how Pogacar shows up. He's had Covid recently, has he been able to train normally, is he behind on schedule etc. I think the best Remco vs the best Tadej on a 14k ITT, we might see something of a 15s gap under normal circumstances. Pogacar lost little over 1s/km to Van Aert in last year's Tirreno TT over 10k. If Evenepoel did improve both his TT position as well as his power on short efforts, and if Pogacar is not at top shape yet, maybe 30-35s. My guess would be around 20s, so not nearly enough, but i wouldn't be surprised if it were only 10s or even less. I would be surprised if he doesn't finish ahead of Pogacar.
Van der Poel was a non-factor in the GC, that's why he was allowed to ride off so early in the race. He was also nearly caught by the time he got to the finish and completely emptied himself.