Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Mayomaniac]

lol, clearly i was talking about Carlos Rodriguez. I wasn't aware Christian Rodriguez dropped him in Valencia.

Lol, seems like I had a bit of a brainfart...

 

[Extinction]

I didn't watch today, but I'm just gonna assume it was about electing to not follow surges and keeping an even pace.

Look, I don't believe Remco is a top tier climber, but not every half hearted reverse-attack needs to be a gotcha moment

The climbs were short, but steep, when he got gapped it was simply because he didn't have the necessary watts when the pace went up towards the top.

 

[Lui98]

Lol, seems like I had a bit of a brainfart...

Don' worry, you are not alone, I had it too

 

[AlfaLum]

He got gapped by about 10-12 riders who looked better today on the steepest section. Not that great considering that they only went full gas for a limited time. If the climbs would have been longer Remco would have gotten distanced again.

Then again it is indeed much better than Carpegna, but for me Carpegna was also the worst outlier we can find. Todays stage probably more comparable to the Fermo Tirreno stage anyhow, so Carpegna doesn't matter much.

For me the real test for Remco is on Saturday. Thats where the big guys will show their actual strenght instead of just playing around a bit to find out who gets dropped. The good thing for Remco is that the course on saturday might already explode before we get to the real difficult climbs (Krabelin & Usartza), so I can definitely see him being a big factor on Saturday. Also Krabelin & Usartza are a bit shorter than Carpegna, which might be better for Evenepoel, but I think there will be 5-8 riders on saturday that will be better than Remco.

 

[Big Doopie]

Trouble for him is it's one thing to close the gap after the crest of these shorter climbs, another when you still have 4 k to go. Then the split likely widens and you don't get back on terms.

true.

but i guess the inference is that on longer (more likely less steep) climbs he may not get gapped. I think we have to wait and see on that one. for instance, on 12 kms at 8% (Stelvio), will he drop away three kms from the top and incur too big of a gap to recover. it's fair to say, i do not know.

i am glad that he dieseled and did not appear to go in the red (at least he certainly recovered) -- tho i did think we had lost him a couple of times.

Overall, he did not appear to be as easy as the likes of Adam Yates and Vlasov and Vingo, etc... when it went steep. question is when it is not so steep but long, will he also have to concede...(?)

 

[Bolder]

I do think he can be a fine climber -- what actually convinced me was Campo Felice, which although not long was very steep and had that sterrato section. But today he frittered away a lot of energy in the 10k before the last climb. Also, that was a very strong group, with multiple GT podium finishers, plus dangerous wildcards like Martinez, Gaudu, Bilbao and Vlasov.

 

[Extinction]

true.

but i guess the inference is that on longer (more likely less steep) climbs he may not get gapped. I think we have to wait and see on that one. for instance, on 12 kms at 8% (Stelvio), will he drop away three kms from the top and incur too big of a gap to recover. it's fair to say, i do not know.

i am glad that he dieseled and did not appear to go in the red (at least he certainly recovered) -- tho i did think we had lost him a couple of times.

Overall, he did not appear to be as easy as the likes of Adam Yates and Vlasov and Vingo, etc... when it went steep. question is when it is not so steep but long, will he also have to concede...(?)

Good points. The Stelvio is a lot longer, although I presume you mean the last, most difficult section, which Geoghegan Hart got over (although the competition was different) obviously in the stellar fashion. As always, it depends on the strength of competition and on longer climbs he will need more watts, all things being equal. Or maintain the same watts but lose another 3 kili. I think that is what he needs to do, drop weight, but maintain power (not relative, but in absolute watts).

 

[Big Doopie]

Good points. The Stelvio is a lot longer, although I presume you mean the last, most difficult section, which Geoghegan Hart got over (although the competition was different) obviously in the stellar fashion. As always, it depends on the strength of competition and on longer climbs he will need more watts, all things being equal. Or maintain the same watts but lose another 3 kili. I think that is what he needs to do, drop weight, but maintain power (not relative, but in absolute watts).

lol, yes, i meant 12 miles.

i rode both sides in september, so i should know

 

[Extinction]

lol, yes, i meant 12 miles.

i rode both sides in september, so i should know

Awesome!

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

true.

but i guess the inference is that on longer (more likely less steep) climbs he may not get gapped. I think we have to wait and see on that one. for instance, on 12 kms at 8% (Stelvio), will he drop away three kms from the top and incur too big of a gap to recover. it's fair to say, i do not know.

i am glad that he dieseled and did not appear to go in the red (at least he certainly recovered) -- tho i did think we had lost him a couple of times.

Overall, he did not appear to be as easy as the likes of Adam Yates and Vlasov and Vingo, etc... when it went steep. question is when it is not so steep but long, will he also have to concede...(?)

He rubber banded a few times. I do think his ideal climbing weight weight is 57-58kg.

Is it that he simply cannot stay with the top climbers, or are there adjustments he can make that get him to that next level.

 

[Extinction]

He rubber banded a few times. I do think his ideal climbing weight weight is 57-58kg.

Is it that he simply cannot stay with the top climbers, or are there adjustments he can make that get him to that next level.

Well 57kg (also 54) is Pantani weight, but, yes, to climb with the very best at his stature.

 

[Red Rick]

He rubber banded a few times. I do think his ideal climbing weight weight is 57-58kg.

Is it that he simply cannot stay with the top climbers, or are there adjustments he can make that get him to that next level.

I think if he's naturally in the 62-63 range then dropping 7-10% of that is a crazy drop. I doubt his performance will benefit much from it.

 

[topt]

I think if he's naturally in the 62-63 range then dropping 7-10% of that is a crazy drop. I doubt his performance will benefit much from it.

it wont, also based on this age I expect him to gain weight not go down

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think if he's naturally in the 62-63 range then dropping 7-10% of that is a crazy drop. I doubt his performance will benefit much from it.

I think currently he's above that, rather 64, maybe more.
Per kilo you lose, on a 30 minute climb you can gain 20 seconds according to an interview i read a few years back with one of Dumoulin's trainers when they were prepping him for his Giro win. I assume for a lighter rider that could be even more considering one kg accounts for a larger % of his weight. So if Evenepoel could lose 3kg, he could already climb 1 minute or more faster on a 30 minute climb. If he really is 64 now and he could drop to 59 or 60, which was his weight last year before the Giro, he could climb a minute and a half or maybe two, faster on 30 minute efforts.

 

[Red Rick]

I think currently he's above that, rather 64, maybe more.
Per kilo you lose, on a 30 minute climb you can gain 20 seconds according to an interview i read a few years back with one of Dumoulin's trainers when they were prepping him for his Giro win. I assume for a lighter rider that could be even more considering one kg accounts for a larger % of his weight. So if Evenepoel could lose 3kg, he could already climb 1 minute or more faster on a 30 minute climb. If he really is 64 now and he could drop to 59 or 60, which was his weight last year before the Giro, he could climb a minute and a half or maybe two, faster on 30 minute efforts.

Yeah but it's hard to see him not losing power cause I reckon that's why he gained weight back in the first place.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Yeah but it's hard to see him not losing power cause I reckon that's why he gained weight back in the first place.

I'm assuming that is part of the equation that was made in that example. I think if you drop 3kg but are able to keep pushing the same watts, you'd benefit a lot more than 1 minute on a 30 minute climb. Especially since muscle weighs more than fat. So losing power is likely part of it. I'm sure there is a reason behind Dumoulin, Van Aert, Froome, Wiggins... all losing weight in order to be able to climb better as they will also lose power in the process.

 

[Big Doopie]

I'm assuming that is part of the equation that was made in that example. I think if you drop 3kg but are able to keep pushing the same watts, you'd benefit a lot more than 1 minute on a 30 minute climb. Especially since muscle weighs more than fat. So losing power is likely part of it. I'm sure there is a reason behind Dumoulin, Van Aert, Froome, Wiggins... all losing weight in order to be able to climb better as they will also lose power in the process.

btw 1kg was worth much more than 20 seconds according to Lemond. Then again I suppose they know the science better now.

 

[Big Doopie]

He may also have to be careful about losing weight. They’re are many possible reasons for his drop in form at the Giro. One could be that he was more fragile for being so skinny.

maybe he needs a GT with an old fashioned 120kms of TT and climbs that are generally 7-8% climbs. Today had some 15-18% I think.

then again, he still might not deal well with the repetition of those 7-8% climbs…

we will see.

 

[Oldermanish]

Lol, seems like I had a bit of a brainfart...

Do those have the same, sad odor as mine? The stench of elder shame, I guess.

 

[Oldermanish]

He may also have to be careful about losing weight. They’re are many possible reasons for his drop in form at the Giro. One could be that he was more fragile for being so skinny.

maybe he needs a GT with an old fashioned 120kms of TT and climbs that are generally 7-8% climbs. Today had some 15-18% I think.

then again, he still might not deal well with the repetition of those 7-8% climbs…

we will see.

Your point about weight loss is totally relevant. It also plays into the long term planning for a career rider. Remco doesn't need to win everything now as much as he should manage his injury recovery into incremental performance goals. Lately, it looks like that may be what's happening. His GT future is now a longer road than Tadej, Egan and any number of hyper-young phenoms. He truly looks built for a long career with broader capabilities and he may enjoy winning every type of race. We'd all love to see that; but you don't win every type of race in each year, every year. Won't happen for Tadej or anyone else.

 

[Boes]

I did expect a better GT performance from him this year.
I hope there's some kind of masterplan in work but until a couple of months ago I deemed Remco to be one of those super talents like Pogacar, MVP or WVA that defied all cycling logic and could win every race he started in.

He's still a good racer, but Belgium will have to bury their hopes for a GT winner for another couple of years.

 

[BigCoward]

I'm assuming that is part of the equation that was made in that example. I think if you drop 3kg but are able to keep pushing the same watts, you'd benefit a lot more than 1 minute on a 30 minute climb.

I'm sure in Tyler Hmiltons book he said 1kg on Alpe d'Huez was worth 1 minute. So 3kg is a huge chunk of time.

 

[Extinction]

I did expect a better GT performance from him this year.
I hope there's some kind of masterplan in work but until a couple of months ago I deemed Remco to be one of those super talents like Pogacar, MVP or WVA that defied all cycling logic and could win every race he started in.

He's still a good racer, but Belgium will have to bury their hopes for a GT winner for another couple of years.

Pragmatically I agree with you, but I still reserve final judgment until seeing his overall progress this year given that, after all, last season was basically a non-year for him following his terrible injury. If we can see a flash of brilliance at the Vuelta this year, durring which he digests well the 3 week duration, then there is still hope me thinks.

 

[OlavEH]

I did expect a better GT performance from him this year.
I hope there's some kind of masterplan in work but until a couple of months ago I deemed Remco to be one of those super talents like Pogacar, MVP or WVA that defied all cycling logic and could win every race he started in.

He's still a good racer, but Belgium will have to bury their hopes for a GT winner for another couple of years.

His progress until Il Lombardia 2020 was as expected (satisfactory) looking at his junior results. Winning Classica San Sebastian and being nr 2 in the WC ITT is pretty unique. His performance in the Poland 2020 was also pretty immense. After Lombardia he hasn't been quite the same. Good performances in 5 days tours isnt the same as Grand Tours, Monuments or even the bigger one week races. He need to perform on highest level again. Maybe not in a GT, but certainly in a big classic or one week race.

 

[Red Rick]

His progress until Il Lombardia 2020 was as expected (satisfactory) looking at his junior results. Winning Classica San Sebastian and being nr 2 in the WC ITT is pretty unique. His performance in the Poland 2020 was also pretty immense. After Lombardia he hasn't been quite the same. Good performances in 5 days tours isnt the same as Grand Tours, Monuments or even the bigger one week races. He need to perform on highest level again. Maybe not in a GT, but certainly in a big classic or one week race.

They're just that. Expectations.

I think his ITTs are better than they were before. And he can definitely still pull off solos on hilly terrain. But he's doing bigger races and they're very wary of letting Evenepoel attack right now.

With losing some weight his climbing should improve, but it won't be down to his Lombardia crash if he doesn't become Pogacars big rival.