Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Big Doopie]

I assume he means that Vingegaard was nowhere near the level of Evenepoel when he was 22 and so that is is still possible to improve considerably over the next few years.

I actually would not be surprised if Remco performs much as Pidcock just did. I hope for better yet, but Pidcock does not doubt that he will himself eventually be competing for GTs.

 

[Riek s]

Well with Roglic probably not attending the vuelta, Pogacar not attending... The fastest uphill jumpers are not present. Can work in his favour in the mountains.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I actually would not be surprised if Remco performs much as Pidcock just did. I hope for better yet, but Pidcock does not doubt that he will himself eventually be competing for GTs.

Remco has shown lots and lots more than Pidcock has, especially in the mountains as long as it comes down to one big effort, at least. With Pogacar out, Roglic likely not in top-shape or even attending, Remco could do something BIG.

 

[Big Doopie]

Remco has shown lots and lots more than Pidcock has, especially in the mountains as long as it comes down to one big effort, at least. With Pogacar out, Roglic likely not in top-shape or even attending, Remco could do something BIG.

I really do hope so.

I just look at his body type and it seems so so different from recent GT winners (vingo, hindley, Pog)… hoping I am wrong tho.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I really do hope so.

I just look at his body type and it seems so so different from recent GT winners (vingo, hindley, Pog)… hoping I am wrong tho.

Pogacar has a different body type from Vingegaard, he has a much broader upper body and shoulders and doesn't look like the frail climber type either. Roglic looks different still and imho is not that dissimilar from Evenepoel, just a tad taller.

 

[frisenfruitig]

Strange that "Burgos"yo-yo.

What could be the reason to change the program three times already ? It had been clear for some time that riding Burgos before the Vuelta was a bad choice. Because Evenepoel would then start in good shape, to be able to win. He would go all the way there too. But we also know that Evenepoel can't keep top shape for weeks. He would then weaken during the second half of the Vuelta.

So now let him get some competition rhythm in the Clasica San Sebastian, without being in top shape. Then again at altitude for the tapering.

How do you know a rider of 22 years old with barely any GT experience can't keep top shape for weeks? Perhaps he can't and never will, I'm just curious how you have come to this conclusion.

I don't know what information you have access to but as far as I can tell he only did one GT with poor preparation (to put it lightly).

 

[Gratemans]

Pogacar has a different body type from Vingegaard, he has a much broader upper body and shoulders and doesn't look like the frail climber type either. Roglic looks different still and imho is not that dissimilar from Evenepoel, just a tad taller.

I could swear you were wrong about Roglic being taller but that indeed seems to be true. Must be his blocky build that makes him seem shorter.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

De cijfers achter mini-Tour van Evenepoel richting Vuelta: “Het kan zijn dat Remco in San Sebastian nog enkele procentjes tekortkomt”

Het is Remco Evenepoel (22) straks menens voor de Ronde van Spanje. Hij maakte van zijn voorbije hoogtestage in Livigno een mini-Tour de France. Quick Step Alpha Vinyl-trainer Koen Pelgrim vertelt het verhaal achter de Strava-cijfers. “De stage was volledig gericht op volume. We wilden een basis...

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Google Translate:

The figures behind the mini-Tour of Evenepoel towards Vuelta: "It may be that Remco comes still a few percentages up short in San Sebastian"

It will soon be Remco Evenepoel (22) serious for the Tour of Spain. He turned his past altitude training in Livigno into a mini Tour de France. Quick Step Alpha Vinyl trainer Koen Pelgrim tells the story behind the Strava numbers. “The internship was completely focused on volume. We wanted to lay a foundation for Vuelta.”

What Remco Evenepoel has done during the Tour de France? So trained hard. On Strava, he gave a full look at his training program at altitude training in Livigno for the past nineteen days. Or sooner in Trepalle, because an altitude internship can never be high enough.

“We were at a hotel in Livigno with the team, at 1,750 meters,” says Quick-Step trainer Koen Pelgrim. “But Remco has booked a hotel himself in Trepalle, another 500 meters higher. That creates an extra height effect.”

If you add up all the figures from the training sessions, it seems as if Evenepoel has ridden a small Tour de France or Giro. “The starting point of the internship was also to work mainly on volume, to lay a foundation for the Vuelta,” says Pelgrim. “But the comparison with a Grand Tour is not really valid. In altimeters and hours on the bike you come close, but the intensity is of course much lower. The focus is on endurance training. If you compare Remco's average heart rates to those of the riders in the Tour, there would be a big difference.”

Ideal conditions

There is indeed no shortage of long training sessions: Evenepoel was on the bike for more than six hours up to four times. Training days ten and nineteen took the cake, with rides of 6 hours 59 minutes. “The conditions were also ideal,” says Pelgrim. “We were able to do everything that was planned. In the summer the weather is perfect in Livigno and you can train very varied there: you have the valley along the lake, ideal for the quieter work in the first days. Or you can go to Bormio or Tirano.”

85 hours on the bike, that could be mentally tough, but Pelgrim puts it into perspective: “The effort-relaxation ratio was well balanced. Remco stayed a bit longer than the rest of the team, but most days he was able to train in group, which is always more pleasant. In Livigno you can really relax: go for a walk, have a drink… You are not isolated. Remco's girlfriend also came by last week."

And we see that on Strava too: on July 16, a walk to 2,435 meters is planned: 'Avec l'amour'. On day seventeen, Evenepoel and fiancé Oumi Rayane also cycle 56 kilometers along the lake. “We give riders the freedom to stay in the team's hotel,” said Pelgrim, “but they can also book something nearby for themselves. During this period, many riders want to train hard, without being away from the family for another three weeks. That way you can combine the internship with the family. You stay on your own, but in the team hotel you do have mechanics and caretakers available.”

Also team time trial

The internship in Livigno was the first step for Evenepoel in the preparation for the Vuelta. “Without the really specific work”, says Pelgrim, but it can be deduced from the Strava data that at least one specific part has already been planed. On day nine, the training is marked 'TTT', the English abbreviation for Team Time Trial, or team time trial. After all, on August 19, the Vuelta starts with that discipline in Utrecht. “We now had a lot of the guys for the Vuelta together,” explains Pelgrim. “So it was an ideal time to practice the technique again. How are you in the wheel? How do you get off the head? A team time trial has become so rare that many guys would like to refresh it.”

In preparation for the Vuelta, Evenepoel will soon drive few competitions. No Tour of Burgos for example, only the Clasica San Sebastian this weekend. It is one of the lessons after the Tour of Switzerland, where Evenepoel had raced a lot before. “Switzerland has made it clear that Remco has to start as fresh as possible,” says Pelgrim.

Early in Spain

It is certain that Evenepoel will spend his last training weeks before the Vuelta in Spain, so that he cannot be surprised by the heat. The transition from the relatively cold Tour of Norway to the hot Tour de Suisse caused some problems earlier this season.
Evenepoel will have his only race kilometers this Saturday in the Clasica San Sebastian, the race he won in a masterly way in 2019. Whether the intensive training internship there is already bearing fruit? “That's possible”, concludes trainer Pelgrim. “But the stage has been built up towards the Vuelta and not towards San Sebastian. It is therefore possible that he is still a few percent short due to the low-intensity work. On the other hand: a Remco at 95 percent can of course also win a race.”

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

How do you know a rider of 22 years old with barely any GT experience can't keep top shape for weeks? Perhaps he can't and never will, I'm just curious how you have come to this conclusion.

I don't know what information you have access to but as far as I can tell he only did one GT with poor preparation (to put it lightly).

We don't know on long term, of course. But it's about analyzing based on what we've already seen in periods of (one week) stage races and one dayraces. I also don't take the Giro in 2021 into account at all. It's not just about GTs at all. But about maintaining the condition over a longer period of time. Evenepoel was in topshape in june 2021, but faded in july. He was in topshape from mid august, but faded than in september/oktober. This year Evenepoel was good in february, but couldnt hold in march. Topcondition in april and may, but not anymore in june (Switzerland). I think that's completely normal too. You cannot perform at top level for months. He and his trainers should plan better. Either peak to Tirreno-Adriatico, then rest and rebuild for Liège and extend that form to Switzerland. So, not participate in Itzulia and in Norway. Or peak to Valencia in february, than rest, than peak again for Itzulia and Liège. Rest again and a last peak in Switzerland.
But next season, the plan is to participate in the Giro (the Tour de France only in 2024). So, that requires a first peak in shape
in Algarve and in Tirreno-Adriatico. No way participating in Itzulia, but resting and recovering. Then try to get some shape (not topshape) for Liège. That will imply that he probably won't have any chances of winning in Liège (you have to make choices). Finally leaving for the Giro in top form.
The only way to last, maybe, three weeks without weakening (much). Because Evenepoel isn't a superman.

 

[groogster]

Remco has shown lots and lots more than Pidcock has, especially in the mountains as long as it comes down to one big effort, at least. With Pogacar out, Roglic likely not in top-shape or even attending, Remco could do something BIG.

Something big maybe but will never be winning it. Not even sure if he has a shot at the podium! Still skeptical about his performance on the high gradients mountain stages where will be at least 7/8 riders that will put serious time on him.

 

[OlavEH]

Still waiting to see if Remco can follow the top climbers in the mountains in the biggest races? So far he has mainly excelled in non-WT races like Norway and Burgos in the mountains? I can see that he can have problems in these really steep 10 % or more climbs like Carpega in TA or Arrate in Basque country, but this time at least should be able to follow in the longer 7-8-9 % climbs which there are several of in this Vuelta.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Something big maybe but will never be winning it. Not even sure if he has a shot at the podium! Still skeptical about his performance on the high gradients mountain stages where will be at least 7/8 riders that will put serious time on him.

If he can make the podium, he has a big chance to win it. I think the chances that he wins or completely tanks (outside of top 10) are bigger than him becoming 3rd or 4th.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

Something big maybe but will never be winning it. Not even sure if he has a shot at the podium! Still skeptical about his performance on the high gradients mountain stages where will be at least 7/8 riders that will put serious time on him.

He doesn't seem like the type who can win big rounds either. Just too little climber, wasting a lot of energy climbing.
He can hold out for a few days, but eventually that breakdown follows. He will have to do a few GT's before that will become clear. From 2024 he may be able to go for stage victories and not for the general.

 

[groogster]

If he can make the podium, he has a big chance to win it. I think the chances that he wins or completely tanks (outside of top 10) are bigger than him becoming 3rd or 4th.

Being able to fight for the podium won’t necessarily mean that he has a chance of winning it (look at Geraint Thomas at TDF).
Since 2020 at Vuelta Algarve when I simply was mesmerized with Evenepoel I follow him very closely, I think that he’s the most amazing rider (even more than WVA and Poga) I’ve ever saw since I became a Cycling geek (I’m 47 year old btw and started to watch pro cycling when I was teenager) but still very skeptical about his chances to win a GT unless he decides to focus 100% on that which I’m afraid it won’t happen because he has a winning everything atitude that will prevent him to focus only on GC at GT. IMO he will end his career with tons of classics and 1 week tours victories in his belt but not very confident about a GT win.

 

[groogster]

He doesn't seem like the type who can win big rounds either. Just too little climber, wasting a lot of energy climbing.
He can hold out for a few days, but eventually that breakdown follows. He will have to do a few GT's before that will become clear. From 2024 he may be able to go for stage victories and not for the general.

I’m still not sure of that either. If he truly wants to focus his entire preparation for a GT he can be a contender. The problem with Evenepoel imo is that not being a natural born climber he would need to focus his entire preparation on that. The way that I see GT stages in the foreseeable future in terms of itt (less and less in the last years and probably showing us a trend for next years to come) will have a toll on riders like Evenepoel that will need that balance between High Mountains and iTT to truly be in contention for a win.

 

[Riek s]

What makes someone a natural born climber?

I think Evenepoel is climbing just fine, his weight is low (63kg. Pogacar is 66kg, the Fish 58-60kg), he has the power to push >6W/kg). He might need to learn how to spend the energy and be comfortable in the mountains and how to react on attacks, but other than that climbing is not something special.

Its good he is focussing more on climbs, to know how his body responds and how to interact/be with it.

 

[spalco]

If he can make the podium, he has a big chance to win it. I think the chances that he wins or completely tanks (outside of top 10) are bigger than him becoming 3rd or 4th.

Not necessarily. Bardet and Pinot for example are TdF podiumers, but neither of them was ever really close to winning a GT.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Not necessarily. Bardet and Pinot for example are TdF podiumers, but neither of them was ever really close to winning a GT.

Hey now, Pinot is the 2019 champion in our hearts.

 

[groogster]

What makes someone a natural born climber?

I think Evenepoel is climbing just fine, his weight is low (63kg. Pogacar is 66kg, the Fish 58-60kg), he has the power to push >6W/kg). He might need to learn how to spend the energy and be comfortable in the mountains and how to react on attacks, but other than that climbing is not something special.

Its good he is focussing more on climbs, to know how his body responds and how to interact/be with it.

Maybe being born and living at high altitute? Something like that has to be involved as we look, for instance, as colombians climb in high altitude mountain stages

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Not necessarily. Bardet and Pinot for example are TdF podiumers, but neither of them was ever really close to winning a GT.

Being able to fight for the podium won’t necessarily mean that he has a chance of winning it (look at Geraint Thomas at TDF).

That was not my point. Evenepoel is not Bardet or Pinot. I think the main question is whether he will tank at one point, meaning he will lose too much time to get a podium spot or even top 5-10. However, if he doesn't have one or more offdays, with the TT's and his ability to go on a raid on the flat/hilly parts, i think if he's close enough to finish on the podium, he can just as well finish it off. There are 3 GC riders who would not lose any/much time in the TT's, but none of them will be here (unless Roglic gets back to full health in time). All the other contenders risk losing minutes in the TT's.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Still waiting to see if Remco can follow the top climbers in the mountains in the biggest races? So far he has mainly excelled in non-WT races like Norway and Burgos in the mountains? I can see that he can have problems in these really steep 10 % or more climbs like Carpega in TA or Arrate in Basque country, but this time at least should be able to follow in the longer 7-8-9 % climbs which there are several of in this Vuelta.

The ascent of Vingegaard doesn't make it any easier. Not sure what weight Remco needed to compete with Pogi but now the bar seems even higher!

 

[Riek s]

Maybe being born and living at high altitute? Something like that has to be involved as we look, for instance, as colombians climb in high altitude mountain stages

Columbians are already smaller/lighter by design (8cm shorter on average than an average belgian). The altitude matters, but this is simulated by training at altitude. Don't know how much difference is still left after that, any id?

The ascent of Vingegaard doesn't make it any easier. Not sure what weight Remco needed to compete with Pogi but now the bar seems even higher!

In theory his weight from Norway should be enough if we assume he can push the same wattage in a GT in the 3rd week. And that is compared to a Pog who is pushing 6.4W/kg (2020 & 2021) same as Vingegaard (2022). But ofcourse there are reasons why someone can or cannot push those values and that might also be the case for Remco, that we don't know until he actually tries.

He pushed 409W average for 30min. (6.5W/kg) side note: Jay Vine was also pushing very high numbers, so they might be inflated. But if he drops 3kg (Tour of Italie weight) and still pushes 400W he would do 6,66W/kg for 30minutes. if can still push 390W he will do: 6.5W/kg

FYI: we know from TT power average from February! that he can push 392W for almost 40min on a TT bike. (early season, but was also a bit heavier 66kg? and on a TT bike).

 

[OlavEH]

The ascent of Vingegaard doesn't make it any easier. Not sure what weight Remco needed to compete with Pogi but now the bar seems even higher!

Especially in the really steep climbs and/or accelerations. Even if it could follow the longer and more even climbs, Remco isn't exactly very explosive. I could easily see him losing 20-30 sec + bonus seconds to Pog and Vingegaard on those last steep ramps to Belles Filles and Peyragudes.

But first things first. In the Vuelta he should at least show that he can follow in long and not so steep climbs

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Columbians are already smaller/lighter by design (8cm shorter on average than an average belgian). The altitude matters, but this is simulated by training at altitude. Don't know how much difference is still left after that, any id?



In theory his weight from Norway should be enough if we assume he can push the same wattage in a GT in the 3rd week. And that is compared to a Pog who is pushing 6.4W/kg (2020 & 2021) same as Vingegaard (2022). But ofcourse there are reasons why someone can or cannot push those values and that might also be the case for Remco, that we don't know until he actually tries.

He pushed 409W average for 30min. (6.5W/kg) side note: Jay Vine was also pushing very high numbers, so they might be inflated. But if he drops 3kg (Tour of Italie weight) and still pushes 400W he would do 6,66W/kg for 30minutes. if can still push 390W he will do: 6.5W/kg

FYI: we know from TT power average from February! that he can push 392W for almost 40min on a TT bike. (early season, but was also a bit heavier 66kg? and on a TT bike).

Obviously it's inflated. He can do it for 30 min of a standalone effort (or low-elevation uni-puerto) but it's completely different to do it in the middle (or at the end) of a gruelling GT on a multi-col hot (or very cold) stage at high elevation and with sudden tempo changes by top climbers.

 

[groogster]

That was not my point. Evenepoel is not Bardet or Pinot. I think the main question is whether he will tank at one point, meaning he will lose too much time to get a podium spot or even top 5-10. However, if he doesn't have one or more offdays, with the TT's and his ability to go on a raid on the flat/hilly parts, i think if he's close enough to finish on the podium, he can just as well finish it off. There are 3 GC riders who would not lose any/much time in the TT's, but none of them will be here (unless Roglic gets back to full health in time). All the other contenders risk losing minutes in the TT's.

If Almeida is on good form I doubt that Evenepoel could gain him more than 40/50 seconds in a 30k iTT (imo he will gain around 1.5 seconds per KM on Almeida)