Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Salvarani]

Non-exhaustive list of potential biases at play in Valverde’s proclamation (and our posts):

• Recency bias: Valverde had just been beaten by Remco when he made the comments.
• Availability bias: Remco had a recent run of success so Valverde rated that higher than Pogacar’s broader body of work.
• Anchoring bias: Remco was the original “next Mercx” and it is difficult to shake the initial perspective. In fact this might lead to…
• Confirmation bias: Only paying attention to facts that confirm the view of Remco as the best and disregarding evidence to the contrary.
• Hot hand fallacy: Because Remco is on a tear, he will continue without impediment from others.
• Exposure bias: He raced Evenpoel head to head a lot more than Pogi and Vingo, including in the Vuelta.
• Country bias: Remco honored and won his home tour.
• Audience bias: He was speaking to Belgians, not Slovenians.

Might be post of the year.

 

[Extinction]

Might be post of the year.

Except for the list of potential biases against assessment. As in you don't know what the fuk you are talking about!

 

[Salvarani]

Except for the list of potential biases against assessment. As in you don't know what the fuk you are talking about!

Sure, thought it was just funny and clever.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Except for the list of potential biases against assessment. As in you don't know what the fuk you are talking about!

You’re usually very coherent. What got in the way here? Also, does it make it better if I say that I think those biases affect all of us, including Roglic fans like myself? Also, I am a Remco fan, just not exclusive.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Also, I am a Remco fan, just not exclusive.

Damn hippie.

 

[Oldermanish]

True, but Sagan was no TTer or climber. Yikes!

Sagan managed to climb effectively to take 6 green jerseys in the Tour. He's also won some TT's when it suited him. The point being: it doesn't get easier and good/great riders don't gain latitude from other competitors. The status quo will not win no matter what Valverde says.

 

[Extinction]

You’re usually very coherent. What got in the way here? Also, does it make it better if I say that I think those biases affect all of us, including Roglic fans like myself? Also, I am a Remco fan, just not exclusive.

Beer.

What I meant was it's all to facile to cry "confirmation bias" or whatever, because of the brashness of the statement, less easy to conclude there is the distinct possibility that one, in this case a seasoned veteran with actual firsthand experience (which none here have), knows what he is talking about and that the those claiming bias don't.

At any rate, time will tell just how true or false Valverde's assessment was, will be or won't be. It would be interesting to see, however, how much folks are willing to bet against him on grounds of being biased or for him on grounds of actually being in the know.

 

[Extinction]

Sagan managed to climb effectively to take 6 green jerseys in the Tour. He's also won some TT's when it suited him. The point being: it doesn't get easier and good/great riders don't gain latitude from other competitors. The status quo will not win no matter what Valverde says.

So you are saying Sagan can climb? On that note Cav got to Paris in 2021. So he can climb too.

 

[tobydawq]

Sagan managed to climb effectively to take 6 green jerseys in the Tour. He's also won some TT's when it suited him. The point being: it doesn't get easier and good/great riders don't gain latitude from other competitors. The status quo will not win no matter what Valverde says.

7!

! being an exclamation mark, not a factorial.

 

[tobydawq]

So you are saying Sagan can climb? On that note Cav got to Paris in 2021. So he can climb too.

Of course Sagan could climb. Not as well as Van Aert, obviously, but comparing him to Cavendish is more a sign of forgetfulness than any bias.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

7!

! being an exclamation mark, not a factorial.

Wait, Sagan didn‘t win 5040 green jerseys?
Also, some people might be allergic to mathematics, so give a warning out beforehand.

 

[Extinction]

Of course Sagan could climb. Not as well as Van Aert, obviously, but comparing him to Cavendish is more a sign of forgetfulness than any bias.

The point was that everyone who finishes inside the time limit at the Tour can climb compared to non-pros, yet the difference between Evenepoel (for the original statement was about him) and Sagan is greater than that between Sagan and Cav, who, for example, won MSR getting over the Capi.

 

[tobydawq]

The point was that everyone who finishes inside the time limit at the Tour can climb compared to non-pros, yet the difference between Evenepoel (for the original statement was about him) and Sagan is greater than that between Sagan and Cav, who, for example, won MSR getting over the Capi.

Okay, for the record I think the gap between Remco and Sagan (at peak) and Sagan and Cavendish is approximately the same. If not smaller. Look at Sagan on Mount Baldy 2015.

But I don't want to spend my Sunday in some rabbit hole where some people may think that I argue that Sagan has a similar skillset to Remco

 

[Red Rick]

Okay, for the record I think the gap between Remco and Sagan (at peak) and Sagan and Cavendish is approximately the same. If not smaller. Look at Sagan on Mount Baldy 2015.

But I don't want to spend my Sunday in some rabbit hole where some people may think that I argue that Sagan has a similar skillset to Remco

Too late now.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I just got an emergency call that someone was trying to convince people Sagan is as good a climber as Evenepoel. On a Sunday! Okay, who was that?

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Sagan always had better hair and better interviews than Remco. That's all that matters really

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Sagan always had better hair and better interviews than Remco. That's all that matters really

That voice though.
And i don't really agree about the hair either.

 

[peterfin]

I asked ChatGPT what it thinks about Valverde's statement and this is the answer: "It is difficult to say how accurate a statement like this is, as it is a matter of personal opinion. Valverde, who has had a long and successful career, may believe that Evenepoel is the best cyclist in his generation based on what he has seen of his abilities and achievements. However, it is ultimately up to others to decide whether or not they agree with this assessment. Additionally, it is worth noting that Evenepoel is still relatively young and his career is just beginning, so it is possible that he may continue to improve and achieve even more in the future." With these wise words of a chatbot we can now end the discussion

 

[gregrowlerson]

That voice though.
And i don't really agree about the hair either.

I really think that we should seek out the opinion of hair expert Alejandro Valverde to settle this debate.

 

[Barkintheeye]

I asked ChatGPT what it thinks about Valverde's statement and this is the answer: "It is difficult to say how accurate a statement like this is, as it is a matter of personal opinion. Valverde, who has had a long and successful career, may believe that Evenepoel is the best cyclist in his generation based on what he has seen of his abilities and achievements. However, it is ultimately up to others to decide whether or not they agree with this assessment. Additionally, it is worth noting that Evenepoel is still relatively young and his career is just beginning, so it is possible that he may continue to improve and achieve even more in the future." With these wise words of a chatbot we can now end the discussion

Probably the Chatbot is as accurate as any of us

 

[Extinction]

I asked ChatGPT what it thinks about Valverde's statement and this is the answer: "It is difficult to say how accurate a statement like this is, as it is a matter of personal opinion. Valverde, who has had a long and successful career, may believe that Evenepoel is the best cyclist in his generation based on what he has seen of his abilities and achievements. However, it is ultimately up to others to decide whether or not they agree with this assessment. Additionally, it is worth noting that Evenepoel is still relatively young and his career is just beginning, so it is possible that he may continue to improve and achieve even more in the future." With these wise words of a chatbot we can now end the discussion

Thus basically all assessments are worth the same, according to the logic that each opinion is no different. Well, I wouldn't want to be diagnosed for a malady by a truck driver, but a doctor. This is so typical of a social media world that has no faith in experts, because aparently experts abound.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Thus basically all assessments are worth the same, according to the logic that each opinion is no different. Well, I wouldn't want to be diagnosed for a malady by a truck driver, but a doctor. This is so typical of a social media world that has no faith in experts, because aparently experts abound.

Granted, I am biased as a strategy consultant, but do you think that factory workers are the best operations strategists? The best basketball player the best GM? (See: Lebron James / Russell Westbrook).

In regard to your medical analogy, no one is saying truck drivers should diagnose maladies; they’re saying that one surgeon saying another is the greatest of all time doesn’t automatically mean that surgeon is in fact the greatest of all time. That surgeon’s opinion should absolutely be considered as a very strong data point, no question.

Have you seen Moneyball? Somewhat relevant here.

Lastly, haven’t other cyclists, like Roglic, said similar things about Pogi as AV said about Remco?

Regardless, I guess this pedantic discussion is as for a way to waste some time as any.

 

[Extinction]

Granted, I am biased as a strategy consultant, but do you think that factory workers are the best operations strategists? The best basketball player the best GM? (See: Lebron James / Russell Westbrook).

In regard to your medical analogy, no one is saying truck drivers should diagnose maladies; they’re saying that one surgeon saying another is the greatest of all time doesn’t automatically mean that surgeon is in fact the greatest of all time. That surgeon’s opinion should absolutely be considered as a very strong data point, no question.

Have you seen Moneyball? Somewhat relevant here.

Lastly, haven’t other cyclists, like Roglic, said similar things about Pogi as AV said about Remco?

Regardless, I guess this pedantic discussion is as for a way to waste some time as any.

Nah, I don't buy your argument. It depends on the individual, of course, but I'd take the right factory worker over any theorist appointee operations strategist, because he knows the job too. In any case, were judging the best worker, not the whole factory operation. So it's not like Valverde said for GTs QS is by far better than JV. Secondly, surgeons don't operate together to rank themselves, so the analogy is moot. And, no, the others didn't say this about Pogacar. Listen if Valverde is off his rocker, I'll owe you a pint.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Nah, I don't buy your argument. It depends on the individual, of course, but I'd take the right factory worker over any theorist appointee operations strategist, because he knows the job too. In any case, were judging the best worker, not the whole factory operation. So it's not like Valverde said for GTs QS is by far better than JV. Secondly, surgeons don't operate together to rank themselves, so the analogy is moot. And, no, the others didn't say this about Pogacar. Listen if Valverde is off his rocker, I'll owe you a pint.

• Generally numbers and analytics tell a better story than qualitative peer assessment, whether you’re looking at systems or individuals. Workers often let biases get in the way of assessments or are simply better at executing than assessing. That’s a big reason why the beat workers are often not the best managers. You see it in hiring too. Generally, SPIFFs and bonuses are determined by quantitative output, not a peer saying, This person is the best. However, I would agree it’s a very useful data point to consider.
• You’re the one who brought up the doctor / trucker; I agree, that is moot. No one is suggesting you ask a trucker to diagnose your injury.
• Not sure how to look this up, but surely someone can reference quotes from other cyclists going on about how good Pogacar is. Roglic has certainly made similar comments.
• Who said Valverde is off his rocker? I’m certainly not arguing he is off his rocker.

 

[Extinction]

• Generally numbers and analytics tell a better story than qualitative peer assessment, whether you’re looking at systems or individuals.

Only when it comes to quantitative production within the logic of profit, with regards to material outcomes. But how do you tell the story of a poem, a piece of music or an artwork? They say nothing about the ineffables, which only muses and vates can qualify. There's a whole thread about ranking the best, analytics and so forth, but Valverde's is about craft.