Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[rikvanlooy]

Might be time to let it go? Time will tell us if Valverde's comment translates to results. It was, after all, the opinion of one pro - which other current experienced pros have made a similar comment? Opinions are fallible by definition.

But I think it's safe to say Remco won't be the next Merckx. He can't sprint - ironically Remco is a worse sprinter than Valverde was. Pogacar is a better finisher and for that reason will likely end up with more wins even if Remco is so good he wins 10 grand tours.

I was surprised at how easy it was for Remco to win sprints at the end of Vuelta stages (almost always for minor places, but still). His second stage win was also an easy one. Mas was no match at all. I am no longer certain that Remco will never win in a sprint. He improved quite a lot.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I was surprised at how easy it was for Remco to win sprints at the end of Vuelta stages (almost always for minor places, but still). His second stage win was also an easy one. Mas was no match at all. I am no longer certain that Remco will never win in a sprint. He improved quite a lot.

He already won a sprint in Norway.

 

[houtdffan]

He will win many many more races if he can start winning small group sprints. That opens up races like Flanders and MSR

 

[Red Rick]

He will win many many more races if he can start winning small group sprints. That opens up races like Flanders and MSR

Those aren't the type of sprints he'd be likely to win. It is one thing to beat some other climbers for a stage or Lombardia, but it's a whole other thing to beat the Flandrien and Sanremo type guys in a sprint.

 

[Extinction]

Those aren't the type of sprints he'd be likely to win. It is one thing to beat some other climbers for a stage or Lombardia, but it's a whole other thing to beat the Flandrien and Sanremo type guys in a sprint.

At the end of those races, how much energy remains counts as much as explosivity under other circumstances. But certainly the idea would be to arrive alone.

 

[Big Doopie]

I was surprised at how easy it was for Remco to win sprints at the end of Vuelta stages (almost always for minor places, but still). His second stage win was also an easy one. Mas was no match at all. I am no longer certain that Remco will never win in a sprint. He improved quite a lot.

he won a sprint at the tour of Norway.

I think it depends completely on if he is the freshest at the end of a hard day.

had he come to the line against some at the Worlds he may have beaten them. Not Pog. Not VDP of course. But he can outkick riders who are cooked.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Considering holidays are nearing. Best to pin this thread?

 

[houtdffan]

Those aren't the type of sprints he'd be likely to win. It is one thing to beat some other climbers for a stage or Lombardia, but it's a whole other thing to beat the Flandrien and Sanremo type guys in a sprint.

He may only have 2-3 others he has to beat though in those races. May be a climber who can hang with him on Ciepressa who he has to outsprint. If he goes on Ciepressa, only the best of climbers are going to be with him at the end

 

[Berniece]

For the really big fans, Evenepoel is bringing out photo album of 2022 called “REMCO mijn jaar” which translates to REMCO my year, as well as a Belgian reporter who wrote a book after the Vuelta called “Om nooit te vergeten - Hoe Remco de Vuelta won”, which translates to “Never forget - Hoe Remco won the Vuelta”.

I guess both versions will only be available in Dutch.

 

[tobydawq]

He may only have 2-3 others he has to beat though in those races. May be a climber who can hang with him on Ciepressa who he has to outsprint. If he goes on Ciepressa, only the best of climbers are going to be with him at the end

When is that scenario ever going to happen?

Which climber would be able to hang on to him while Van Aert and Van der Poel can't?

 

[houtdffan]

When is that scenario ever going to happen?

Which climber would be able to hang on to him while Van Aert and Van der Poel can't?

MSR on the Ciepressa. Ciepressa is ~4km in length. WVA isn't hanging on on a climb that long. It would take a Pog or a climber to be able to hang on. The Poggio would be a different story as it is much shorter

 

[tobydawq]

MSR on the Ciepressa. Ciepressa is ~4km in length. WVA isn't hanging on on a climb that long. It would take a Pog or a climber to be able to hang on. The Poggio would be a different story as it is much shorter

Cipressa will never happen.

 

[red_flanders]

MSR on the Ciepressa. Ciepressa is ~4km in length. WVA isn't hanging on on a climb that long. It would take a Pog or a climber to be able to hang on. The Poggio would be a different story as it is much shorter

I wouldn't bet a nickel against WVA hanging on over the Cipressa. Well within his capabilities.

 

[Andre]

MSR on the Ciepressa. Ciepressa is ~4km in length. WVA isn't hanging on on a climb that long. It would take a Pog or a climber to be able to hang on. The Poggio would be a different story as it is much shorter

Wout can climb that without any problem

 

[Red Rick]

Drafting is so big on Cipressa as well it's not really funny. For Evenepoel a shot at Sanremo would likely be a very late attack or an early sneak attack on the Poggio with a bad chase.

Contrary to other classics, the group is typically very big after the Cipressa adn a chase is still quite feasable. This year they absolutely nailed the Cipressa, with a tailwind, and then the 2nd group was only a few seconds behind at the base of the Poggio.

 

[Berniece]

Even if Evenepoel would be able to get away on the Cipressa he won’t make it to the finish line. MSR is just not hard enough, so after the Cipressa there are more than enough teams with more than enough people to chase him. Can’t imagine him being able to hold them off.

 

[Salvarani]

Drafting is so big on Cipressa as well it's not really funny. For Evenepoel a shot at Sanremo would likely be a very late attack or an early sneak attack on the Poggio with a bad chase.

Contrary to other classics, the group is typically very big after the Cipressa adn a chase is still quite feasable. This year they absolutely nailed the Cipressa, with a tailwind, and then the 2nd group was only a few seconds behind at the base of the Poggio.

It is not impossible and I would not be surprised if it happened one day.

 

[hayneplane]

It is not impossible and I would not be surprised if it happened one day.

Not impossible but even Pogacar In fantastic form couldn’t break the field on the Poggio and his team softened them up on the Cipressa. Remco has improved his descending massively but is not a superstar in this area like Nibali was to win solo and he will be too much marked out to sneak off on the flat like Stuyven.

His best bet would be an all or nothing move 30-40kms our on the capi that forces others to follow or risk the race not coming back to them like in the Worlds.

 

[will-10]

MSR on the Ciepressa. Ciepressa is ~4km in length. WVA isn't hanging on on a climb that long. It would take a Pog or a climber to be able to hang on. The Poggio would be a different story as it is much shorter

have you ever watched MSR?

 

[houtdffan]

Cipressa will never happen.

and it was said Redoutte would never happen again

 

[yaco]

and it was said Redoutte would never happen again

Remco attacked on the false flat at the end of Redoubte.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

and it was said Redoutte would never happen again

Could only happen if it was raced hard from the start so that a lot of doms are already tired halfway. The race is too easy otherwise, the peloton would be too big and he would never get away far enough to hold a lead over the Poggio. But i'd like to see him try. I wonder what would happen if he were to attack full out at the foot of the Poggio and just keep going. Not wait for the sprint on the steepest section, but make everybody suffer before that. I think in a TT, nobody would beat him up a "climb" like that. If he has 5 seconds after the Poggio, he's gone.

Remco attacked on the false flat at the end of Redoubte.

You're actually helping his case imho.

 

[houtdffan]

Remco attacked on the false flat at the end of Redoubte.

yep. Where drafting played a significant role. Didn't matter in the end.

I'm talking about an all out attack at the base of Ciepressa, similar to his San Sabastien attack. Yes, Ciepressa is 6-7% not 11%. However, that is still enough to get a significant time gap on the doms, or force the other favorites to chase themselves, which would blow the doms out the back, resulting on Remco being chased by a small group, which little gets reduced further on Poggio

 

[red_flanders]

yep. Where drafting played a significant role. Didn't matter in the end.

I'm talking about an all out attack at the base of Ciepressa, similar to his San Sabastien attack. Yes, Ciepressa is 6-7% not 11%. However, that is still enough to get a significant time gap on the doms, or force the other favorites to chase themselves, which would blow the doms out the back, resulting on Remco being chased by a small group, which little gets reduced further on Poggio

The Cipressa is 6% for 500 meters at the start with an overall average of 4.1%. Readily available info. Not only would WVA not be dropped, I struggle to think of a rider better suited for that climb.

 

[houtdffan]

The Cipressa is 6% for 500 meters at the start with an overall average of 4.1%. Readily available info. Not only would WVA not be dropped, I struggle to think of a rider better suited for that climb.

first 1k is at 5.8%. The final 2 km is basically a false flat

That said, I still overstated the difficulty a bit. Its closer to a 5% average gradient over the first 4 km instead of 6-7