Van der Poel is not healthy right now...we still don't know how he will progress until those races come
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Which/how many of his presumed goals does he have to win this year for it not to feel like a failure. Is anything less than Giro, Liege, WCTT a bad season for him?
While i'm sure he could win a sprint against many climbers or domestiques at the end of a hard day, him sprinting against those 4 would need a miracle for him not finishing last.
Yes, more difficult races would suit him much better. But on the other hand, let's not forget he has won in ways and in races/stages that weren't even that hard, that nobody ever thought would make sense. Let's say QS makes the race as hard as possible, and he does attack early, gets away with an elite group including Pogacar, Van Aert, Van der Poel and some others that could survive Cipressa. If noone has any doms left to work, i could see a scenario where sets an excruciating pace at the foot of the Poggio, form permitting... If he does get a gap, knowing it's him, who is going to do the work chasing him? They will bank on catching him on the downhill, but if he has a 5 second lead after the descent, he's gone.
Was this season a failure for Pogacar? He did win Lombardia but that was not the biggest goal.
I think a failure would need him to not be in contention for a big victory at all. We can expect him on the podium of the Giro, but a lot can happen, and not every setback has to mean failure.
Yup, he is finished if he does not pull this off.
I think for some it was.
He had such insane expectations after a similar season as Remco this year, and ultimately didn't deliver.
Being amazing all year round in all different types of race is admired by the board, but ultimately JV won one race, did nothing in anything else, and still probably had the more successful season.
Short answer is 'it depends'. Mainly on your expectations, including your long term expectations.
If you expect him to compete with Pogacar and Vingegaard but then loses the Giro that would be a big disappointment.
I agree that all scenarios in which Remco wins MSR range from highly unlikely to basically impossible but we're talking about Remco here. I don't doubt that sooner or later he'll find a way to win the race.
5 seconds at the top of the Poggio or 5 seconds at the foot of the descent. Big difference as 5 seconds at the foot they never see him again until after the victory salute but a 5 seconds lead at the top would imo be gobbled up on the twisty technical descent.
Poggio is a pedalling descent, so I'm not that sure he would lose a truckload of time.
The way this thread is, I would be expecting him to win every race he enters. If not, he may as well hang his bike up.
What are you talking about? There are tons of hairpins on the Poggio descent.
I mean, both things are true. But the guys who have broken free on the descent are the best descenders in the peloton. Remco has clearly gotten better but I just don't see, given his talents and limitations, why he would make this race a goal. There are so many other ones which suit him so much better. IMO if he ever makes this a priority it will be because he's already won every other monument, which of course may never happen.
Big Doopie
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which is why through its history many of the greatest descenders of their time have forged their victory on this very descent.
Lordy.
Bonimenier
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I agree with this, but on the other hand MSR is the most "lottery-like" race among the monuments. If you want to win it during your career, it's probably best to get as many chances as possible, especially if the race itself doesn't really suit your type of rider.
Nah, it's about what the opportunity costs are, and they're not that high.
Yes, but on the straights you are pedalling and Evenepoels TT prowess will help him a lot there. Also a pedalling descent can hurt the chasing effort, which happened when Nibali won.
The real difficulty for Evenepol is getting a gap in the first place.
Looks like HelloDolly hacked your account there Rick. But yes, getting a gap will be the main problem, which is why it will only work when the race is lit early on, and he attacks early on the Poggio. I think that's the only way, but possible.
Fair, I just don’t see that approach at this point from Remco and company. Very targeted and specific. I have seen zero interest from him in MSR.
Disagree. There’s no scenario in which he can win without going balls out on the descent of the Poggio. Cost of a mistake there is yuge. Before his season really gets underway.
Why are they huge? Sure, he can crash, but most likely it will happen in a curve where the speed isn't that high.
Big Doopie
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yup. I can’t wait for JV to send Vingo and Rog to try win Paris -Roubaix. After all, there’s little cost.
Sanremo - controllable risk but chance of winningyup. I can’t wait for JV to send Vingo and Rog to try win Paris -Roubaix. After all, there’s little cost.
Roubaix - uncontrollable risk and no chance of winning
As PL has stated, an in form Remco can do well in ANY race.
Big Doopie
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well? Sure. But why prioritize the worst least significant monument, a race that he has little chance to win over all the races he can excel at?
he will be 23. So many other priorities. And I would rather see him win 5 LBLs and 5 Lombardias before he even waste one of his peaks on effin’ MSR.
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