Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Logic-is-your-friend]

There sure were. Pais Vasco is, by all accounts, the stage race with the highest level outside of the Tour de France, and there he was good, but certainly not the strongest rider in the race.

He beat Roglic and Vingegaard lol. What's the point.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

"I tried to get his wheel, but it was impossibile, because he was going three times as fast as everyone else."

When did Nibali say this?

 

[Extinction]

When did Nibali say this?

In an interview in Gazzetta dello Sport right after the race.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

In an interview in Gazzetta dello Sport right after the race.

I gathered as much. But which race?

 

[Extinction]

I gathered as much. But which race?

Liege or course.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

read the quote. He doesn’t just say “he was going three times faster than me”. He says he was going three times faster than everyone.

Not sure why you’re emphasizing this when obviously he wasn’t going 3 to Ned faster than anyone in the race.

Also, y’all acting crazy in this thread. Roglic and Remco are phenomenal and it’s impossible to say how the Vuelta would have gone. It’s impossible to argue Roglic was at peak but also to argue that Remco’s performance wasn’t incredibly high caliber. I think they’re co favorites for the Giro, but I’d give the edge to Remco because Roglic has had a very tough year, is getting old, and theres a lot of TT mileage.

 

[houtdffan]

Still people underestimating 2014 TdF winning Nibali I see. There has never been a stronger Nibali than 2013 to 2014.

As for Remco, he looks very ominous. I am rather frightened by what could be possible in the years ahead. For possible weaknesses, what is the quality of Remco's descending?

He descends MUCH better than his grandma level descending of the 2021 giro. Even Ullrich would have dropped him on the downhill that year

 

[Netserk]

Will he really not ride any race with Alaphilippe in the first half the season?! Quite surprising.

 

[theyoungest]

lol. Defensive much?

if u read up there were two or three posts. And there have been many in the past, simply ignoring that the only two times Remco was in any way challenged was in two days when he was most affected by his crash. In fact on the second of those days, despite an all out jumbo attack, Rog ended up literally following Remco’s pacing up the entire climb to of Sierra Nevada only to take 15 secs from him in his usual acceleration in the last km. And he was dropped by Mas. Mas who Remco matched and beat in the final week when he had recovered.

from San Sebastián all the way thru to the Worlds, the only blip in Remco’s transcendent form was precisely days two and three after his crash (which is notoriously when riders are most affected by such things). Had those stages not been two of the hardest, we likely would never had seen that he was hurting.

to extrapolate from there that Rog would have challenged or beaten him on the merits is the definition of a false narrative.

But this is not about whether Roglic would have beaten Evenepoel in the Vuelta, that's not very likely. It's more about the conclusions we can draw from that race for this year's Giro. And I think that's pretty difficult, as the Roglic we saw in this Vuelta was far from the best Roglic. If you take Enric Mas as the benchmark, which you apparently want to do, that becomes pretty obvious. Mas is a good rider, but usually no match for Rog.

 

[Berniece]

But this is not about whether Roglic would have beaten Evenepoel in the Vuelta, that's not very likely. It's more about the conclusions we can draw from that race for this year's Giro. And I think that's pretty difficult, as the Roglic we saw in this Vuelta was far from the best Roglic. If you take Enric Mas as the benchmark, which you apparently want to do, that becomes pretty obvious. Mas is a good rider, but usually no match for Rog.

The only rider that was able to match pogacar in lombardia?

Although I feel these comparisons don’t matter that much. Mad was great the last few months of the season, but purely looking at Remco’s power numbers in the Vuelta we know he put in one of the best performances of the season.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

But this is not about whether Roglic would have beaten Evenepoel in the Vuelta, that's not very likely. It's more about the conclusions we can draw from that race for this year's Giro. And I think that's pretty difficult, as the Roglic we saw in this Vuelta was far from the best Roglic. If you take Enric Mas as the benchmark, which you apparently want to do, that becomes pretty obvious. Mas is a good rider, but usually no match for Rog.

Mas/Movistar have said he reached his best level ever in the Vuelta/Lombardia iirc.

 

[Extinction]

But this is not about whether Roglic would have beaten Evenepoel in the Vuelta, that's not very likely. It's more about the conclusions we can draw from that race for this year's Giro. And I think that's pretty difficult, as the Roglic we saw in this Vuelta was far from the best Roglic. If you take Enric Mas as the benchmark, which you apparently want to do, that becomes pretty obvious. Mas is a good rider, but usually no match for Rog.

Once again, Roglic could not have been far off his best level at the start of the Vuelta, otherwise he would not have been competitive. By the end of the second week he had arrived in top form, otherwise you don't gain 1 minute on a hurt Remco at Sierra Nevada. As far as Mas is concerned, he reached his highest career level at the Vuelta and had he enjoyed such form at the Tour likely would have gotten on the podium.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I’m struggling to understand how the context we know (fractured vertebrae + dislocated shoulder) and Vuelta stage 6 didn’t say very clearly that Roglic was not at his best. Do you really think Ayuso and Mas put this kind of time into Roglic close to his best? He dropped like a stone and it was obvious to everyone watching that we were witnessing the not unexpected evidence that Roglic was not at his best. https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/vuelta-a-espana/2022/stage-6

 

[Extinction]

I’m struggling to understand how the context we know (fractured vertebrae + dislocated shoulder) and Vuelta stage 6 didn’t say very clearly that Roglic was not at his best. Do you really think Ayuso and Mas put this kind of time into Roglic close to his best? He dropped like a stone and it was obvious to everyone watching that we were witnessing the not unexpected evidence that Roglic was not at his best. https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/vuelta-a-espana/2022/stage-6

With fractured vertebrae you are looking at minimum of eight weeks down (two months), which would have made Vuelta participation impossible. So either he didn't have fractured vertebrae, or some sort of milder compression. The time he lost on stage six to Remco and Mas was what 1"22'? That's hardy being "dropped like a stone." At that level, to contain your losses to 1"22' against a flying Remco , you'd need to be within 2-3 percent, at maximum 5 percent, off top form, which isn't "far from his best." Actually that's near your best, which would have been necessary to fight for victory at all. And clearly Jumbo-Visma brought Roglic to fight for overall victory, as the opening TTT showed. So he could not have been "far from his best," otherwise GC ambitions would have been impossibile. Rather it's more likely the plan was for him to do damage control in the first mountain stages, to then gain full form in the second half of the race, which effectively he seemed to have achieved when disaster struck.

The other thing is that Mas's level was so much higher compared to the Tour that it made Roglic seem further from his best than he actually was. Ayuso too clearly was at a very high level, as his final third place demonstrated, which doubtless would have only been fourth place had Roglic finished the race.

The other misleading conception is that Roglic only had 2 weeks prep for the Vuelta. Well that's not exactly true, because he wasn't starting from a low fitness level, but building upon the preparation he already did to reach peak level for the Tour. The crash in France, though painful and performance affecting, would not have magically taken away all the form acquired in the build-up to the Tour. So after he pulled out of the race, got some rest and healed, his Vuelta prep would have been about getting back up to, or as near to, Tour fitness and not starting over from scratch. Under similar circumstances in 2014 after crashing out of the Tour, both Contador and Froome were able to show up at the Vuelta with winning or near winning form.

 

[theyoungest]

With fractured vertebrae you are looking at minimum of eight weeks down (two months), which would have made Vuelta participation impossible. So either he didn't have fractured vertebrae, or some sport of milder compression. The time he lost on stage six to Remco and Mas was what 1"22'? That's hardy being "dropped like a stone." At that level, to contain your losses to 1"22' against a flying Remco , you'd need to be within 2-3 percent, at maximum 5 percent, off top form, which isn't "far from his best." Actually that's near your best, which you would have been necessary to fight for victory at all. And clearly Jumbo-Visma brought Roglic to fight for overall victory, as the opening TTT showed. So he could not have been "far from his best," otherwise GC ambitions would have been impossibile. Rather it's more likely the plan was for him to do damage control in the first mountain stages, to then gain full form in the second half of the race, which effectively he seemed to have achieved when disaster struck.

The other thing is that Mas's level was so much higher compared to the Tour that it made Roglic seem further from his best than he actually was. Ayuso too clearly was at a very high level, as his final third place demonstrated, which doubtless would have only been fourth place had Roglic finished the race.

The other misleading conception is that Roglic only had 2 weeks prep for the Vuelta. Well that's not exactly true, because he wasn't starting from a low fitness level, but building upon the preparation he already did to reach peak level for the Tour. The crash in France, though painful and performance affecting, would not have magically taken away all the form acquired in the build-up to the Tour. So after he pulled out of the race, got some rest and healed, his Vuelta prep would have been about getting back up to, or as near to, Tour fitness and not starting over from scratch. Under similar circumstances in 2014 after crashing out of the Tour, both Contador and Froome were able to show up at the Vuelta with winning or near winning form.

Your whole argument seems to be that you can't believe Roglic had fractured vertebrae, so he didn't, and so he was close to his best in the Vuelta. Yet for Mas it's the other way around: he wasn't great in the Tour, because it doesn't suit the narrative. The truth, as often, is probably somewhere in the middle: Roglic was reasonably fit to race, and Mas was a bit better in the Vuelta than in the Tour.

Jumbo needed a leader for the Vuelta, because it started in their home country. Without Roglic there wasn't much that they were going to do, lots of injuries and out of shape riders. That they won the TTT doesn't mean Roglic was in fantastic shape either. I think if the Vuelta had started in Jerez de la Frontera they probably wouldn't have brought Rog in the first place.

 

[Extinction]

Your whole argument seems to be that you can't believe Roglic had fractured vertebrae, so he didn't, and so he was close to his best in the Vuelta. Yet for Mas it's the other way around: he wasn't great in the Tour, because it doesn't suit the narrative. The truth, as often, is probably somewhere in the middle: Roglic was reasonably fit to race, and Mas was a bit better in the Vuelta than in the Tour.

Jumbo needed a leader for the Vuelta, because it started in their home country. Without Roglic there wasn't much that they were going to do, lots of injuries and out of shape riders. That they won the TTT doesn't mean Roglic was in fantastic shape either. I think if the Vuelta had started in Jerez de la Frontera they probably wouldn't have brought Rog in the first place.

Number one, fractured vertebrae require months, not weeks, to heal (I know, because I've had them), but compressed vertebrae, depending on the severity, could take far less time. Secondly, an out of form Roglic gets dropped on the winning TTT, that he didn't indicates the form was more than decent at the start of the Vuelta. Thirdly a "far from best" Roglic doesn't loose just 1"22' to Remco and Mas on stage 6, but like 12 minutes and drops completely out of contention. Thirdly, an out of shape Roglic doesn't suddenly become the best climber in the race after Remco's fall. None of these things make logical sense.

So the narrative that doesn't add up to me, based on his actual performances, is the one that says a half-ass Roglic showed up at the Vuelta. I will concede that in the beginning he wasn't at his very best, but again he could not have been far off the mark to ride strongly in the TTT and then keep himself in contention after the first mountain stages, to then get himself up to full flight, doubtless as was planned, by the end of week two. Moreover, with the numbers Remco was putting up, Primoz would have had to been near top shape to remain in the GC race.

 

[Cookster15]

I have thought about this seriously and, as far as I can tell, Contador and Froome had a higher condition at that Tour than Nibali, who in any case had incredible form. The Paris-Roubaix stage did huge damage, but Froome was already out and Contador suffered a mechanical. Only Alberto remained in the race with Nibali, but his +2 minute loss on the cobbles may indeed have been too much to compensate for in the mountains. But verily that season Contador was stronger than peak Nibali and probably Froome as well, judging by how the subsequent Vuelta went between them.

At risk of being off topic in the Remco thread, I don’t think we can read much into the subsequent Vuelta. That was a consolation prize all three were targeting the TdF.

Nibali had incredible form in 2013 too - demolished the Giro and his TTs were the big clue of how strong he was. So it wasn’t fleeting form. So, I am still not convinced Contador and Froome could have beaten Nibali in the 2014 TdF with that form. Once those two crashed out Nibs soft pedaled some stages and still won by 7 minutes. Credit where due.

 

[Extinction]

At risk of being off topic in the Remco thread, I don’t think we can read much into the subsequent Vuelta. That was a consolation prize all three were targeting the TdF.

Nibali had incredible form in 2013 too - demolished the Giro and his TTs were the big clue of how strong he was. So it wasn’t fleeting form. So, I am still not convinced Contador and Froome could have beaten Nibali in the 2014 TdF with that form. Once those two crashed out Nibs soft pedaled some stages and still won by 7 minutes. Credit where due.

On the first uphill finish (not MTf) when Contador went full gas Nibali ceded, bowing his head in resignation in the end. On a real mountain finish Alberto would have dropped him. That year Contador was back to his very best and, sorry, top Contador beats top Nibali. Froome was in monstrous shape too, but crashed out before he could show it.

I'll grant you, however, that with that form and the time gained on the Roubaix stage, Nibali perhaps could have held off Contador for yellow. The 7 minutes would have been off the podium had Contador and Froome finished.

 

[tobydawq]

On the first uphill finish (not MTf) when Contador went full gas Nibali ceded, bowing his head in resignation in the end. On a real mountain finish Alberto would have dropped him. That year Contador was back to his very best and, sorry, top Contador beats top Nibali. Froome was in monstrous shape too, but crashed out before he could show it.

I'll grant you, however, that with that form and the time gained on the Roubaix stage, Nibali perhaps could have held off Contador for yellow. The 7 minutes would have been off the podium had Contador and Froome finished.

Hilarious that the "the battles we never got to see" is literally the thread right above this, yet stuff like this still goes into the Remco thread...

 

[Big Doopie]

Hilarious that the "the battles we never got to see" is literally the thread right above this, yet stuff like this still goes into the Remco thread...

cha-ching.

post away!

slowly but steadily Remco thread climbing to be the greatest of all time!!

woot!

 

[topcat]

Will he really not ride any race with Alaphilippe in the first half the season?! Quite surprising.

A relevant, on topic and current comment. It obviously has no place in this thread. C'mon, get with the program.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Will he really not ride any race with Alaphilippe in the first half the season?! Quite surprising.

Liège according to PCS. Alaphilippe will be riding a lot with Van Wilder early on.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Liège according to PCS. Alaphilippe will be riding a lot with Van Wilder early on.

It is heavily rumoured, although I slightly doubt it is actually the case, that Alaphilippe will not ride the ardennes this season.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It is heavily rumoured, although I slightly doubt it is actually the case, that Alaphilippe will not ride the ardennes this season.

Then if Remco is not riding Fleche, and Julian is not riding Fleche, who will be leading the team there? I know Van Wilder isn't riding Fleche, so that basically leaves only Bagioli who could try to get a top 10. Can't see Mauri pull that off, unless from a break, which isn't happening.

 

[Bonimenier]

Then if Remco is not riding Fleche, and Julian is not riding Fleche, who will be leading the team there? I know Van Wilder isn't riding Fleche, so that basically leaves only Bagioli who could try to get a top 10. Can't see Mauri pull that off, unless from a break, which isn't happening.

Why do you think they signed Merlier?