Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Berniece]

This has been my concern for some years now. Lodewyck sitting in the car, and Pelgrim seemingly not being able to get the most out of him. I also wonder why everybody is going on altitude camps (most of his competitors in PN seem to have been) but he will only go after Liège according to what i've heard.

He decided this himself because it’s better for his mental state to be home more often. But without altitude I don’t see him beating Pogacar at Liege

 

[Hugh Januss]

Rogla has the exactly same situation as Remco. Neither team can pace hard enough to drop or hurt UAE and VLAB key domestiques.

They can count on those two to do the heavy lifting in that regard, they just need to keep up.

 

[Andre]

Is it just me, or does Remco have a lot of could've would've should'ves?

It's just you

 

[Ripper]

It's just you

I'm not sure I believe you

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Is it just me, or does Remco have a lot of could've would've should'ves?

This thread wouldn't have had 900+ pages otherwise.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Is it just me, or does Remco have a lot of could've would've should'ves?

Most top riders have this, as they don’t win all the time and every time they doesn’t win there might have been things they could’ve done better. Pogacar could’ve won the tour in 23 if he did differently on Granonstage with tactic and feeding. He could’ve perhaps won last year without the crash in Liege.

Roglic has a lot of these. Tour 2020 the big one, but also the Giro Carapaz won where he got a bit sick, the Vuelta last year and also a f Paris-Nice and Dauphine he should’ve won.

Even Vingegaard has a big one with the Vuelta last year.

Van Aert has a lot of them. Alaphilippe ans well and so on.

 

[rghysens]

I also wonder why everybody is going on altitude camps (most of his competitors in PN seem to have been) but he will only go after Liège according to what i've heard.

A matter of availability? The only place to go on "real" altitude camping (as opposed to altitude chambers) in winter or early spring is the Parador on the Teide. And it is well known that that is fully booked almost years in advance in some periode of the year. Once the snow starts to melt, there are other opportunities in Livigno, Tignes,....

 

[joseph89]

Those things are not necessarily connected. If you said he had no chance of winning the team would be very relevant. But to podium, for example third behind Vingegaard and Pog I think the team is almost a non-existent issue.

Not if VLAB & UAE play the shadow leader strategy.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Not if VLAB & UAE play the shadow leader strategy.

Okay. So then you are saying that all the podium spots are locked for Visma and UAE?

Your logic is very valid for winning imo, but not for the podium.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Okay. So then you are saying that all the podium spots are locked for Visma and UAE?

Your logic is very valid for winning imo, but not for the podium.

Last year the podium spots in the GTs were divided like this:

5x Jumbo-Visma
3x UAE
1x Ineos

That doesn't leave much room for the other teams. At the moment it looks like a third place in the Tour is the highest achievable for Evenepoel, but even then he'll have to compete with guys like Bernal, Skjelmose, and yes, the secondaries of Visma and UAE.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Last year the podium spots in the GTs were divided like this:

5x Jumbo-Visma
3x UAE
1x Ineos

That doesn't leave much room for the other teams. At the moment it looks like a third place in the Tour is the highest achievable for Evenepoel, but even then he'll have to compete with guys like Bernal, Skjelmose, and yes, the secondaries of Visma and UAE.

Of cours its tight, but joseph says Remco as a fact has no chance to podium because of his team («Time to face facts, remco is never going to podium another GT if he stays with SOQ»).
I think third place in the Tour is very much up for grabs for non-Visma/non-UAE. Forst and foremost for Roglic and Remco, but also other guys like SYates, Tao, Gall, Rodriguez, Mas (and also the secondaries of UAE and Kuss).

 

[joseph89]

Of cours its tight, but joseph says Remco as a fact has no chance to podium because of his team («Time to face facts, remco is never going to podium another GT if he stays with SOQ»).
I think third place in the Tour is very much up for grabs for non-Visma/non-UAE. Forst and foremost for Roglic and Remco, but also other guys like SYates, Tao, Gall, Rodriguez, Mas (and also the secondaries of UAE and Kuss).

+ hindley. If a move of shadow leaders goes up the road what is SOQ strategy even if landa is in that move.

SOQ just don't have the team to hurt the secondary leaders and remco will become isolated in a group that contains multiple teammates from teams that can roll attacks leaving remco to pull. None of the riders you mention are going to pull with remco if a podium spot is in play.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

+ hindley. If a move of shadow leaders goes up the road what is SOQ strategy even if landa is in that move.

SOQ just don't have the team to hurt the secondary leaders and remco will become isolated in a group that contains multiple teammates from teams that can roll attacks leaving remco to pull. None of the riders you mention are going to pull with remco if a podium spot is in play.

given how the tour has been ridden the last few years with Vingegaard and Pogacar there won’t be any issue with other candidates for podium rolling attacks on Remco. Jumbo and UAE will blow things apart and it will mostly be man against man on all the big mountain stages. I don’t see many scenarios where QS need to be the team that hurts the other podium contenders, based on the last few years Jumbo (and UAE) will do it for them.

If Landa is close to the same level he was last year he’ll be there for a long time, and be a total gamechange to how the QS team has looked this Paris-Nice.

 

[joseph89]

Assuming remco has a lead over all the names you mention after stage 7 TT, they priority is to make up time and then to gain time before the final stage 21 TT. Asumming the other podium spots are a lock for vlab and uae, other teams have no incentive to ride with remco.

 

[joseph89]

Jumbo and UAE will blow things apart and it will mostly be man against man on all the big mountain stages.

And where will yates, kuss and ayuso be? Wheelsucking remco 🤣

 

[joseph89]

Lets circle back after the TDF.

 

[tobydawq]

Last year the podium spots in the GTs were divided like this:

5x Jumbo-Visma
3x UAE
1x Ineos

That doesn't leave much room for the other teams. At the moment it looks like a third place in the Tour is the highest achievable for Evenepoel, but even then he'll have to compete with guys like Bernal, Skjelmose, and yes, the secondaries of Visma and UAE.

You're really not on Evenepoel's side if you think Skjelmose's presence in the Tour is what will prevent Evenepoel from getting a podium.

I think Skjelmose has a fair bit more to prove in Grand Tours than Remco does.

Also, Skjelmose will not do the Tour.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Last year the podium spots in the GTs were divided like this:

5x Jumbo-Visma
3x UAE
1x Ineos

That doesn't leave much room for the other teams. At the moment it looks like a third place in the Tour is the highest achievable for Evenepoel, but even then he'll have to compete with guys like Bernal, Skjelmose, and yes, the secondaries of Visma and UAE.

There's always a chance that Vingegaard or Pogačar blows up by trying to follow the other one, which could make it possible for someone like Remco, who might be better at riding his own pace, to finish second (as long as he doesn't blow up himself/decides to go for stages instead because he no longer believes he can win the race).

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

And where will yates, kuss and ayuso be? Wheelsucking remco 🤣

I would expect Yates and Kuss to burn matches pacing in the front for Pogacar and Vingegaard and not just save themself on Remcos wheel, but we will see how much they are riding for themselves. I think Jumbo and UAE mainly will ride for the win and the third place might be a bonus, not that they will put the tactical focus on how to kill Remco for third place.

No matter that, with the predicted advantage from the last TT (and I think it’s likely that Remco can take some seconds on these guys the first week, with bonuses and so on) Remco doesn’t necessarily need to drop them and can ride sensible to the line to limit losses.

If you look at how Remco has lost time to early attackers this week in Paris-Nice I think none of the stages would’ve played out in a similar way with Vingegaard and Pogacar in the race and the tactics would be massively different.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Lets circle back after the TDF.

Even if Remco finished 7th you can’t say that you’ve been correct in “Time to face facts, remco is never going to podium another GT if he stays with SOQ”.
We need to circle back when he leaves QuickStep or when he retires.

 

[Netserk]

The fight for third in last year's Tour was greatly affected by crashes and breakaways, so many riders are in play for that last step.

I don't think his teammates will matter much compared to how well he will do on a climb like Isola 2000 after Visma paces full gas.

 

[Valv.Piti]

He decided this himself because it’s better for his mental state to be home more often. But without altitude I don’t see him beating Pogacar at Liege

Pogacar at this level, Remco has absolutely no chance at dropping him. All he can hope for is beating him in a sprint when Pogi is rolling like this, and I doubt it will come down to that.

 

[Salvarani]

The fight for third in last year's Tour was greatly affected by crashes and breakaways, so many riders are in play for that last step.

I don't think his teammates will matter much compared to how well he will do on a climb like Isola 2000 after Visma paces full gas.

Yeah, the team thing is overstated and just another excuse. He won one with them after-all, right?

Either he has it or he dont.

I guess the only difference is he is not racing against neo-pros as his competition for the win.

 

[Red Rick]

Pogacar at this level, Remco has absolutely no chance at dropping him. All he can hope for is beating him in a sprint when Pogi is rolling like this, and I doubt it will come down to that.

IMO there's no race quite like Strade Bianche so it's really weird to gauge someone's form by Strade. Catalunya is a better reference point.

That said, I think Pogs form usually is going downhill by the time he hits the Ardennes after a heavy spring schedule, but this time I actually expect him to be much better.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Nah bro, Pogi will hit different this year, I respect and believe my guy mou. He told me that, and I will believe him until proven otherwise. Ready for destruction come the Ardennes. Actually he already started, and hes my favorite for MSR with it being MVP's first race as well.

Catalunya, meh, he will win the race with one leg without proper comp. Thats just a solid training block at this stage, no joke. Result is given