Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Rik Van Looy]

It doesn't matter much. To be in level with, say Sagan, he needs to grab 3 RWC's first, means three years. And he needs to grab about 105 pro wins to be in level with Peto, so if he wins every week throughout the season, two and half years. If once a month, about ten yrs….so, looks like he has a task to do after all, no need to talk about Merckx just yet.

I don't think it will be that difficult for Remco to better the results of Sagan. 3 world titles and 2 Monuments. Plus 3 times Gent-Wevelgem (but that is of less importance). He also has 12 stage victories in the Tour de France and 4 in the Vuelta. Sagan is an underperfomer in the Monuments. Somebody like Gilbert has won more important races than him.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I don't think it will be that difficult for Remco to better the results of Sagan. 3 world titles and 2 Monuments. Plus 3 times Gent-Wevelgem (but that is of less importance). He also has 12 stage victories in the Tour de France and 4 in the Vuelta. Sagan is an underperfomer in the Monuments. Somebody like Gilbert has won more important races than him.

For me he is an outlier not because of how much he can win, but because of the way he can win. Or should we throw Freire into the mix as well?

I know the word "talent" is subjective but MVDP is the most talented cyclist I've seen.

He is certainly one of the most versatile cyclists (i can only think of Pidcock being more versatile) and if you factor in technique as well, there might be a case for your argument, since i'm convinced it is a big part of why he is dominant in CX in this fashion. However, just going by physical potential, Remco exceeds that by some margin imho. But he is not as versatile, and he definitely is not as technically gifted (although it should be noted he's not yet been cycling for 3 years, unlike Mathieu who has been cycling since before he could walk, so to speak).

So it depends on how you want to look at it. Remco doesn't have a sprint, so in terms of victories, he will have a much harder time racking up wins (unlike Valverde, van der Poel, Sagan...). Which is why it makes it even more impressive, that at his age, he's already got 6 pro wins under his belt and a silver medal.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

TTing isn’t as useful as a sprint when it comes to win numbers but it does add quite a lot if you are very good at it, both directly and as part of GCs.

 

[Joelsim]

If you look at the all-time wins ranking, of riders who are still active today, the very best i.e. Cav and Sagan average about 10 per season over their careers, Valverde fewer, obviously some seasons are more, some are fewer.

https://www.procyclingstats.com/statistics/start/all-time-wins-ranking

Remco has 6 in his first season and this year so far, he's just turned 20.

Valverde's first win was when he was 23 years old - 1954.

Sagan won 5 as a 20 year old.

Cav didn't win any, but he won 23 races in 2009 which was his most prolific year. I would very much doubt Remco could win anything like 23 races in a year.

 

[memyselfandI]

Power estimate on a road bike?

Come on now, Sagan is a sprinter who mostly sits in the wheels. If Remco wins half of what Sagan has, he will have to be considered better, because his victories will be GC/TT/MTF/long De Gendt style breakaways. Froome, for example, has won only 45 races.

Topic is 'Remco is the new Eddy' ? Eddy can everything! Maybe a bit unfair, yes. It's better to make comparison between Remco and Bala tbo. wait..!

But. Sagan sitting in the wheels..I don't see him as a wheelsucker, he's a very complete athlete. Sitting wheels can happen for tactical reasons. He's quite marked man after all he's taken away from others. Medals from XCO, CX worlds underline his skillset too, very complete athlete. I see MVDP about equal with Peto if he starts to win as much in roads, pretty soon, but can he handle 3 weeks in the mountains to get 7-8 green jerseys with sitting wheels

 

[Bonimenier]

If you look at the all-time wins ranking, of riders who are still active today, the very best i.e. Cav and Sagan

The disrespect to Greipel is immense.

 

[Rik Van Looy]

For me he is an outlier not because of how much he can win, but because of the way he can win. Or should we throw Freire into the mix as well?

Just for fun : Freire has 3 world titles + 3 times MSR + 7 stage victories in the Vuelta + 3 stage victories in the TdF

 

[Joelsim]

The disrespect to Greipel is immense.

You're quite right. My bad.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I would very much doubt Remco could win anything like 23 races in a year.

Obviously not. But averaging 5-10 is certainly doable if he keeps this up. Which, again, for not being a sprinter (or a punchy rider) is immense. Not all of them will be gold medals, classics and GC's of course, but at the moment it's hard to not think of him winning at least 1-3 ITT's a season. Be it in a national championship, a small stage race (San Juan, Algarve, Baloise Belgium, California (if it's still alive)...) a GT, ECC or WCC. He's currently done 8 (i think) ITT's as a pro and won 2 of those. But of the last 3 he won two (Euro, San Juan) and finished 2nd in the WCC.

San Juan 12k flat - 3rd
Romandie prologue 4k flat - 57th (crashed before the start)
Romandie 17k flat - 15th (all day in the attack the day before)
Baloise Belgium Tour 9k flat - 4th
Belgian nationals 38k flat - 3rd
ECC 22k flat - 1st
WCC 54k hilly - 2nd
San Juan 15k flat+climb - 1st

I think that he's already reached a level that he can win any type of non-prologue ITT easily, unless facing an in form Roglic, van Aert, Dumoulin, Dennis or Campenaerts. And even then, he is far from beaten. At just 20 years old. I'm convinced, that had he gone into last years San Juan and BBT ITT's, with his current form he would have won at least those two as well.

But it remains unfair to judge him by wins when comparing him to sprinters or puncheurs. Those guys get 5 shots even in a 7 day race like San Juan. But there is only one ITT. Last year in Turkey, 4 or 5 sprint stages, no ITT, one MTF...

I have made a similar case in the Quinn Simmons topic. While both Simmons and Brenner also won a lot of junior races last year (though not quite as many as Remco), you have to look at the time differences (and dominating fashion) of how Remco won his. Of the dozens of victories of Simmons and Brenner, none of them was with a time gap larger than 1 minute (only Simmons came close with his WCC win, 57 seconds). Of all the dozens of wins Remco took, only three i believe were with a gap of less than one minute, all the others were between 1 and 10 minutes.

So, you guys can judge it by whatever metric you chose. A win is a win, i guess. But when i say i think he's the biggest outlier i've ever seen, i'm not talking about the amount of wins he has or can get, but by the way he can get them.

 

[Joelsim]

I agree, although he'd beat Campenaerts 99/100.

 

[RunningRouleur]

I think most of you understood I wasn’t disrespecting Sagan (though later in his career he’s mostly stopped attacking/can no longer hang on in climbs/win TTs/got dropped in the TDF TTT while in yellow). Win total just a different metric guys who take most of their victories in bunch sprints. Remco will never win a bunch sprint, and stupidly, Grand Tours continue to insist on a steady diet of boring stages. It gives him fewer chances to win. Riding for GC will reduce the total even more. You have to be conservative, team can’t chase down every break, you never win a stage with luck while fighting for the podium, etc.
On another note, he’s stated that he’s not good at punchy efforts. That might not bode well for him in the Ardennes.

 

[red_flanders]

I think most of you understood I wasn’t disrespecting Sagan (though later in his career he’s mostly stopped attacking/can no longer hang on in climbs/win TTs/got dropped in the TDF TTT while in yellow). Win total just a different metric guys who take most of their victories in bunch sprints. Remco will never win a bunch sprint, and stupidly, Grand Tours continue to insist on a steady diet of boring stages. It gives him fewer chances to win. Riding for GC will reduce the total even more. You have to be conservative, team can’t chase down every break, you never win a stage with luck while fighting for the podium, etc.
On another note, he’s stated that he’s not good at punchy efforts. That might not bode well for him in the Ardennes.

Maybe not disrespecting him, but I think describing him as "a sprinter who mostly sits in wheels" is a pretty unflattering description of his talents. To me he's a great classics and one-day rider with a sprint strong enough to let him compete in bunch sprints. I would never call him a "sprinter". Gaviria is a sprinter who mostly sits in wheels.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Change the title of the topic!

Evenepoel is the new Messi!

EDIT: link seems dead atm, here the google translate:

Evenepoel, the Messi of the bicycle

The Argentine press has already baptized the Belgian for his past in football. The reaches the top of El Colorado will show its conditions on the mountain, at 2,565 meters altitude

The Belgian press roams the hotel Del Bono, in the town of San Juan, at 12 p.m. in Argentina, 4 or 5 in the morning in Europe, while Remco Evenepoel received massage, then had dinner and later spoke with the journalists of his country.

The Belgian phenomenon, for the moment, continues to be a kid who is the only one who betrays him as a cyclist, off the road, the clothing of his team, the Deceuncink.

With the messy hairs and face of a child, its director, the Italian Davide Bramati, leaves him very calm. He is an experienced technician. He has directed Gaviria, Boonen, Alaphilippe, Stybar or Viviani, among others, in a group that has a Polish, Stybar, a French, a Colombian and three Belgians. A multinational that is where world cycling has been heading for a few years at a high level.

It is a group in which everyone works when you have to work. If someone does not do it, they can face a technician who understands everything when he raises his voice.

In Argentina, Evenepoel is much more protected than in his country. His past as a footballer, in the lower divisions of Anderlecht and PS Eindhoven, and the Belgian teams sub 15 and sub 16, along with his conditions as a cyclist have made some Argentine media have given him the name of the bicycle Messi.

One of the most important newspapers in Argentina, of national circulation, La Nación, dedicated an entire page, in which he shared the leading role with Cristian Bassedas, who now trains a football team of the third Argentine division, who was manager of Velez Sarsfiel and that as a player he was the man who supplied Alan Shearer with gold balls, who scored a whopping 260 goals in the Premier.

A whole page in a daily newspaper of that level to a cyclist is not normal. Alaphilippe, who arrived in Colombia yesterday, said of his partner that “he has no limits. Its potential is incredible. He is very young and has plenty of time to reach his roof. I have no doubt that he will get very important things, ”explained the Frenchman.

In the time trial, rather than pedaling, it seemed to destroy the road with the power with which it moves its legs. His pedaling is a martyrdom for asphalt.

It is true that when you arrive in Europe you will find other rivals, but also your fitness will be different.

They try, during their training, not to feel the pressure that already prevents them from going outside in their country, if not with a hat on. If something has been done well over the last few years, Deceuninck is working with young cyclists, thanks to the work done by Joxean Matxin, who is now one of the top leaders of the UAE Emirates, with names such as Enric Mas, Julian Alaphilippe , Fernando Gaviria, Alvaro Hodeg, Fabio Jakobsen or Max Schachmann, among others.

Remco has already been asked about Eddy Merckx, the last winner of his Tour de France country, 43 years ago: «I am a young man who rides a bicycle. I don't want to be better than anyone. Merckx was a great champion, as was Alberto Contador, who was my idol. I hope to one day fulfill my dream of being able to win the Tour, at least one ».

After the first stage he slept nine hours straight. In the fall that occurred in the goal he suffered scratches and his elbow was slightly swollen, but nothing serious. Her masseuse put ice on her and everything was in an anecdote.

The differences he has in the general seem sufficient to him to be able to maintain the first position: «With the seconds that I have on Ganna and Seville, I can go calm to El Colorado. It wouldn't be the same if I only had ten seconds.

He already knows what he will have to ascend on that mountain, «in which he is climbing for three hours, a continuous effort that must come to me well. It is not an explosive arrival. Only when three kilometers remain does the ascent begin. I know her well last year and I am calm ».

He gives many explanations, quickly, in English: «The difference with last year is that then I had to work for Alaphilippe and this year I will go on the defensive. It is a very different way of understanding the race, of running. Besides, I have a strong team ».

Meet Oscar Sevilla last year and know that he is going to attack: «It is his land and he also knows the climb very well. He will not be the only one to attack.

He has demonstrated his level in one-day tests, the San Sebastian Classic, in time trials, such as the European Championship, in a week-long stage race, such as the Tour of Belgium.

The general feeling is that we are facing a phenomenon, but there are still challenges ahead if we talk about the high mountains, the three-week races, the classic paves.

Of course, he has a long time to finish the Messi of cycling.

An important test

Tomorrow, Friday, the test will arrive at the top of El Colorado, a first-class port, with 14.4 kilometers of ascent.

It does not have very pronounced ramps, but the altitude at which it is located, 2,565 meters, and the speed at which the group usually climbs complicate it, along with the heat.

Evenepoel will face his first big test on a selective mountain as a leader. You notice the lack of oxygen on that rise.

The numbers say that in the three previous international editions of the race, those who left there as leaders ended up winning: Bauke Mollema, Oscar Sevilla and Winner Anacona.

Rui Costa has dominated that peak in 2017. In 2018 Gonzalo Najar won, with 1:58 over Óscar Sevilla. The Argentine runner would be disqualified shortly after for doping.

Last year it was Winner Anacona who won. He won ahead of Paredes and Montoya, followed by Carapaz and Sevilla, 32 seconds.

Evenepoel wants to win and we will have to see how he responds to the attacks of Seville and a good number of Colombians waiting for his opportunity.

The eyes of world cycling will be on Evenepoel, which weighs less than a year ago, and with the tests that have been done up to 1,800 meters in Liviano (Italy) you already know how far you can go.

This time it will be 2,565 meters, and that is major words. It will face a new challenge.

I'll add another one.

Tour of San Juan: Remco Evenepoel puts his crown at stake in Alto Colorado

After his overwhelming triumph in the individual time trial, a specialty in which he devastates as if he were a specialist and has spent his entire life dedicating himself to her, Remco Evenepoel (Deceuninck-Quick-Step) puts his crown into play on Friday in a scenario that has not yet It is known if it dominates.

Although he is only 20 years old, the strength of the young talent is known in one-day races and even in one-week laps, because he won the Tour of Belgium last year. It is known that it is very strong in level and time trial, and also in climbs and short recesses. It remains to be known, however, if you can also with three-week races and if you pass the high mountain, unknowns that will probably be cleared this year at the Giro d'Italia, although tomorrow we will have a breakthrough to see their behavior and performance in the Alto Colorado, where his rivals, and especially Oscar Sevilla, will try to snatch the crown.

Evenepoel has the advantage of knowing the ascension of last year, when he gave 1 minute and 30 seconds on Anacona, the winner. It is a considerable time, which this time would not be enough to maintain the leadership, but the Belgian then helped his partner Alaphilippe and that reference may not be valid. "Physically, tactically and mentally, I am better than last year," Evenepoel said a few days ago. "I am a better runner than a year ago," he added with the sincerity of his age. It would not be surprising, therefore, that also in Alto Colorado was the strongest or one of the strongest, although it must be verified.

The Italian Filippo Ganna (Ineos) is the closest rival he has in the general, 33 seconds. However, it is not a climber. More respect imposes, if possible, veteran (43 years) Óscar Sevilla (Medellín), winner of the Vuelta a San Juan 2018 and who has not dropped any year of the podium since the race is international. The Portuguese Oliveira is not far, but he is not a climber, while the American McNulthy does well in the climbs.

Among them, quite possibly, is the winner of the Vuelta a San Juan 2020, although others, such as Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) and Eduardo Sepúlveda (Movistar), in addition to the always combative Argentine and Colombian cyclists, could take advantage of the marking of the aspiring the jackpot to win the stage win.

Always two days before the end, Mollema, Sevilla and Anacona leaders came out of Alto Colorado, which means that the race is decided on this climb and, therefore, is the saint and sign of the Tour of San Juan. It's like the Alpe d'Huez of the Tour de France, the Stelvio del Giro of Italy or the Angliru of the Tour of Spain.

High colorado

The Alto Colorado is a first class port and 14.4 kilometers of ascent that, although without large ramps, saves a slope of 665 meters. The altitude and the sensation of lack of oxygen due to the lower atmospheric pressure, since the goal is 2,565 m above sea level, usually passes as much or more than the ascent itself, so normally the South American runners depart with a little advantage to be more accustomed -live in altitude- and better acclimatized.

This mountain has been the usual scene of the queen stage of the Tour of San Juan and in its ramps Laureano Rosas, Ricardo Escuela and Juan Pablo Dotti, among others, have measured their strength many times when the race was not international. In 2017, when this test premiered its current category, the winner was Rui Costa, who surpassed in 3 "Rodolfo Torres, in 7" to Ricardo Escuela, in 10 "to Seville and in 12" to Bauke Mollema, who dressed as Leader and ultimately took the jackpot.

In 2018 Gonzalo Najar was exhibited in 1 minute and 58 seconds to Oscar Sevilla, 2 minutes and 5 seconds to Rodolfo Torres, 2 minutes and 15 seconds to Villalobos and 2 minutes and 23 seconds to Benoot. However, he would later be disqualified, so the title went to Oscar Sevilla, who was followed in the final general by Italian Filippo Ganna, 20 seconds later, and Colombian Rodolfo Torres, 50.

Finally, in 2019 the winner was Winner Anacona, who beat the compatriots Paredes and Montoya to the sprint, with Carapaz and Sevilla at 32 seconds. The Colombian Movistar dressed as leader and took the absolute victory, with 35 seconds over Alaphilippe, who was already beginning to show his potential in laps by stages, and 57 over Oscar Sevilla.

 

[rghysens]

Change the title of the topic!

Evenepoel is the new Messi!

...ah

 

[del1962]

If Evenepoel is the new Messi who is the new Ronaldo?

 

[Joelsim]

If Evenepoel is the new Messi who is the new Ronaldo?

Marc Hirschi.

 

[hayneplane]

If Evenepoel is the new Messi who is the new Ronaldo?

Pogacar

 

[DNP-Old]

Nah, my thread title was spot on.

 

[Bonimenier]

Nah, my thread title was spot on.

A bit disrectful to Remco, no?

 

[Rik Van Looy]

A bit disrectful to Remco, no?

I see that the bookies are not taking risk any risk whatsoever. The odds Remco winning the Tour of San Juan have been slashed from 1,7 to 1,03, ie you win almost nothing in case Remco wins this Tour.

He is still fourth favorite to win the Giro, but he is closing in on the top 3. His odds declined from 15/17 to 11. I wonder how much these odds will decline after tonight.

My Italians friends are now completely convinced that he will win the Giro this year even without seeing any signs of him being a excellent climber. A lot of money will be placed on him winning the Giro. I won't be surprised if he is favorite starting the Giro.

 

[303pbmf]

Let's wait untilat least after Tirreno before we bombard a 20 year old who has never ridden a Grand Tour to a top favorite to win the Giro.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Agreed. Evenepoel has to destroy the opposition today to even be considered as a possible 2020 Giro podium contender IMO, seeing as the San Juan GC field is weak af. Pappy Sevilla is his main opponent ffs.

 

[hayneplane]

Agreed. Evenepoel has to destroy the opposition today to even be considered as a possible 2020 Giro podium contender IMO, seeing as the San Juan GC field is weak af. Pappy Sevilla is his main opponent ffs.

This is true but I would expect him to because it is in his entire career through juniors and pros that he doesn't just ride to win but to win as comprehensively as he is able to do and exact maximum damage on his opponents.

I would be very surprised if he settled for surfing wheels and marking attacks without looking to launch himself and go solo particularly as he would not be likely to win any kind of contested finish in a small group if it came down to 4 or 5 riders.

 

[303pbmf]

Offcourse he's going for the win, but whatever the result here is going to be, it's no guarantuee for good results in the Giro against real competition. People starting to call him favorite are just delusional.

 

[spalco]

I see that the bookies are not taking risk any risk whatsoever. The odds Remco winning the Tour of San Juan have been slashed from 1,7 to 1,03, ie you win almost nothing in case Remco wins this Tour.

He is still fourth favorite to win the Giro, but he is closing in on the top 3. His odds declined from 15/17 to 11. I wonder how much these odds will decline after tonight.

My Italians friends are now completely convinced that he will win the Giro this year even without seeing any signs of him being a excellent climber. A lot of money will be placed on him winning the Giro. I won't be surprised if he is favorite starting the Giro.

Many variables, I'm not 100% convinced he'll win THIS Giro, not least because it's not totally clear he wants to.

But I am convinced his style is absolutely perfect for GT racing. There's no reason to believe he can't climb. And with his power he should be able to drop anybody on inclines even without massive acceleration efforts.
I hope he has sufficient regeneration ability and clear focus not to waste energy without gain, those are bigger unknowns than his climbing ability imo.

I know he sort of views himself as a Classics rider, but I think he'll win more stage races than one-days in his career.