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Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

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Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

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Red Rick said:
But are you really expecting Remco to be so weak that he only has 25s?

I actually think he can win solo, but not by only having 25 seconds at the base.
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I think 25s seems like a reasonable gap, joking aside. As well as to what could be realistic for him to gain after his attack, as to what could be enough for him to hold. I think in order to catch him on the Mur with a 25s lead, they would need to start early. So who's going to start early with Alaphilippe in his wheel? I think Evenepoel is better than most (if not all) to sustain the effort on the Mur after having gone on the attack on the flat. It wouldn't even be unthinkable that some of the chasers might die on the climb sooner than Evenepoel if they chased hard on the flat. Anyway, i think Alaphilippe's presence might be enough of a deterrent that a 25s gap could be enough.
 
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Big Doopie

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Y oh y of all races are we discussing FW with Remco? ;)

it is probably the least likely race on his schedule that he will perform well.

and no way does he win with only 25 seconds at the base of Huy. No way.

and I was just getting to enjoy Remco as the all-purpose underdog since the haters have been so ardent in their hate that he is now pegged as the second coming of Spilak. Please, I beg you, let that continue.

all I can say about Remco and FW is that he should simply be used exactly as he should have been at the WC. let him go from far out making all the other teams chase like crazy so that Ala can dominate easily. Remco and Ala actually compliment each other perfectly if you are looking for the TEAM to win.

the more I think about it the unpardonable sin of the Belgian team at the WC was putting the team on the front to chase down Remco’s second break group when the gap was still under a minute. Unforgivable! Let the French burn themselves up, make Ala make more of a solo effort to catch the break and now he no longer has the legs to break away. Simply mind-boggling.
 
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Blanco

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Salvarani said:
Remco in great form could win Fleche if he goes early on the Mur I believe, even if he is not as explosive as some others. He could tire the others out to the point they cant sprint past him, but he would have to be super-strong that day. I dont think that is too farfetched though. It might/could happen in the future.

Someone like Ala can just have a bad day also.
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No, I don't think he can. Only if he get a significant head start which is not going to happen. The likes of Roglic, Pogacar, Valverde, etc will easily give him 5-10 sec in that finishing 300-400 m.
Only way he could win is by going earlier, before the last Mur.
 
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red_flanders

red_flanders

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18-Valve. (pithy) said:
That seems to be what most people think, but Roche au Faucons could be a problem for Evenepoel, with Pog and others in freak form. The pace will be brutal. I think he'll do better in FW.
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I was just having a joke that all things RE must be discussed ad infinitum...and I'm as guilty as anyone. :)

That said, I think LBL suits him better than FW. I think there are more avenues for the win. He did pretty well on the steeps at Lombardy and San Sebastian IIRC. Where in FW he just doesn't have the closing sprint to compete that way, and his only avenue is a long breakaway.

What's the record for abbreviations in a post?
 
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Sandisfan

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There was talk here last year about Eddy riding and taking lessons regarding off road, gravel, cobbles and downhill riding in general. He looked good on that one Fall Italian race going downhill pretty fast. I haven't heard of any Bike handling work being done this last several weeks, other than short gravel ride late in the year. Just wondering.
 
Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

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Sandisfan said:
There was talk here last year about Eddy riding and taking lessons regarding off road, gravel, cobbles and downhill riding in general. He looked good on that one Fall Italian race going downhill pretty fast. I haven't heard of any Bike handling work being done this last several weeks, other than short gravel ride late in the year. Just wondering.
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Unfortunately i haven't heard anything about him doing specific CX or other training as he was supposedly going to do this winter (since last winter, which was initially planned, he was busy with his recovery from the crash). Maybe him and Vanthourenhout (who was supposed to help him with the CX training) not really on the best of terms, has put the entire idea on the backburner?
 
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Carrick-On-Seine

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Logic-is-your-friend said:
Unfortunately i haven't heard anything about him doing specific CX or other training as he was supposedly going to do this winter (since last winter, which was initially planned, he was busy with his recovery from the crash). Maybe him and Vanthourenhout (who was supposed to help him with the CX training) not really on the best of terms, has put the entire idea on the backburner?
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Stybar would have been the guy to help but he doesn't seem to have done any cross himself this winter either.
 
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Netserk

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A good schedule and a good winter without problems, so we should get a good impression of his climbing talents this year. No Les Forges in Liège, so it's straightforward that he should attack on/just after La Redoute. I certainly have higher expectations for him in Liège (where he has an outside chance to win) than Tirreno and Itzulia (where I think he's likely in the 3rd-6th range). I'm not sure what to expect of Suisse, but I think it's fair to say that with this program the measure of a successful Vuelta is the podium? That he at least in one mountain stage shows elite level climbing? If no illness, crashes etc., what would it take before he disappointed (whatever post-hoc unreasonable expectations one might have), Logic?
 
Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

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What it would take, for me personally you mean?

Think it would depend on the situation, who he's facing, which type of climb, which race etc. Overall i'd say if he were dropped and lost considerable time, that would be a big disappointment tbh. We know he doesn't have a punch like the Slovenians, so getting dropped somewhere in the final 500 meters and losing 10s i wouldn't call that disappointing. If he gets dropped early, but doesn't lose extra time after the initial drop, would also not be much of an issue for me. On the other hand, i would also be disappointed if he couldn't drop non-top climbers (say guys like Bouwman, Konrad, Elissonde...) on a long climb, assuming that would be intended.

I think we can all agree his candle was dying halfway the Giro, and so it might be easy to forget, that he was still with the "main" group on Zoncolan until Benal's attack around the final 1k (i think), and well ahead of guys like Valter and Foss. He lost 18s on Vlasov, 28s on Bardet... Considering the circumstances, imho that was an encouraging effort, even though people were too busy mocking him for it. It was his first GT, after 2 weeks, his age, his injury, his recovery, preparation and dwindling form taken into account, that was already an indication imho.

What would it take before he confirmed or even impressed, Netserk?
 
Netserk

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Logic-is-your-friend said:
What it would take, for me personally you mean?

Think it would depend on the situation, who he's facing, which type of climb, which race etc. Overall i'd say if he were dropped and lost considerable time, that would be a big disappointment tbh. We know he doesn't have a punch like the Slovenians, so getting dropped somewhere in the final 500 meters and losing 10s i wouldn't call that disappointing. If he gets dropped early, but doesn't lose extra time after the initial drop, would also not be much of an issue for me. On the other hand, i would also be disappointed if he couldn't drop non-top climbers (say guys like Bouwman, Konrad, Elissonde...) on a long climb, assuming that would be intended.

I think we can all agree his candle was dying halfway the Giro, and so it might be easy to forget, that he was still with the "main" group on Zoncolan until Benal's attack around the final 1k (i think), and well ahead of guys like Valter and Foss. He lost 18s on Vlasov, 28s on Bardet... Considering the circumstances, imho that was an encouraging effort, even though people were too busy mocking him for it. It was his first GT, after 2 weeks, his age, his injury, his recovery, preparation and dwindling form taken into account, that was already an indication imho.

What would it take before he confirmed or even impressed, Netserk?
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Over the whole season, given no illness and injuries etc.

Sounds like you have quite low expectations (do you really think he is so bad that no higher expectations than that are reasonable?), and it doesn't seem like you think he can challenge the best in the Vuelta.

I wrote my expectations in the post you quoted. They were quite clear and explicit. If he does even better than that, then he would have impressed me quite a bit.

In a hypothetical scenario were the coming Vuelta had the same field and route as the previous one, I would be disappointed if he did worse than Haig, but impressed if he was at a level similar to Mas and delivered an elite climbing performance (like Mas did on Velefique).
 
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Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

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Netserk said:
Over the whole season, given no illness and injuries etc.

Sounds like you have quite low expectations (do you really think he is so bad that no higher expectations than that are reasonable?), and it doesn't seem like you think he can challenge the best in the Vuelta.

I wrote my expectations in the post you quoted. They were quite clear and explicit. If he does even better than that, then he would have impressed me quite a bit.

In a hypothetical scenario were the coming Vuelta had the same field and route as the previous one, I would be disappointed if he did worse than Haig, but impressed if he was at a level similar to Mas and delivered an elite climbing performance (like Mas did on Velefique).
Click to expand...
You asked me what it would take for me to be disappointed. So that's what i answered. What i expect is him to be better overall than climbers like Vlasov and Carthy or guys generally their level, unless they should hugely improve on their previous climbing achievements. What i hope is for him not to lose more time than he could potentially make up for in a TT.
 
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