You haven't seen "any sort" of the consistency you need to land a big result in a GT? Winning 1 week races back to back with less than a week in between, and being inside the top 10 of the Giro for over two weeks isn't "any sort" of consistency? When you say Haig and O'Connor are "more favorite" than him, does that also mean you would put your money on them winning a GT rather than him? Assuming Roglic and Pogacar both do the Vuelta with something akin to full form (considering they rode the Tour), and you had to pick one person that could possibly beat them, would you pick Haig and O'Connor before Evenepoel? Or by "more favorite" do you mean to finish inside the top 10?
Why exactly isn't it realistic that he "could"? You are making a huge deal about finishing a GT first. So because he only did 18 days in the Giro out of 21 (with one of those remaining days being a TT), it's impossible, even if he was in the top 10 for 15 of those 18 days? Mas finished 2nd in the Vuelta after finishing 77th in his first. I doubt Mas put his body through more stress his first year. Pogacar finished on the podium on his first try. Andy Schleck did it as well. Gesink, Almeida and plenty of others finished well inside the top 10, that with a different scenario, more could have been possible. So because Evenepoel didn't get to softpedal two more stages and do a 30 minute effort in a TT, last May, that means there now is no chance in hell he could finish on the podium. Legit.