Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Blanco]

Really? Alaphilippe may not have had the legs, but he was marking Pogacar, which was understandable, but not the winning tactic. He was waiting for a turn of speed from Tadej that never materialized. In the meantime, victory went up the road and he was then too far back to close. I'm not so sure Remco could have been useless on the Mur, as coming towards the half-way point or thereabouts he was looking round for Alaphilippe. With fresher legs he may have been able to do a pilot accelleration. Attacking from 30 k out would have equally yeilded nothing as having him close on the break before the Mur. At any rate, reserving Evenepoel for the Mur as a trigger point for Julien I think was worth a try.

Really!
He closed similar gap last year and won.
Valverde in 2014 closed even bigger gap and won.
I repeat, he didn't had the legs to win, and Remco could last on the Mur only until the s-bend.

 

[Valanga]

Do you guys think Remco will try something before Faucons?

I can't see him dropping Pog or a handful of the best puncheurs on a climb like that. And he has no sprint. Could try a late attack on the flats leading up to the finish line but I'm not sure that is a good idea.

Not on the Roche aux Faucons itself, there he'll have to try to hang on. But if he can hang on, there is a section waiting for him on top of RoF that was tailor made for him.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Do you guys think Remco will try something before Faucons?

I can't see him dropping Pog or a handful of the best puncheurs on a climb like that. And he has no sprint. Could try a late attack on the flats leading up to the finish line but I'm not sure that is a good idea.

The window of opportunity for him is narrow. He has to go sooner than other big contenders deem ideal, but he has to go after those contenders have burned through most of their domestiques. So that either the intial chase is done by tired doms or rivals who want to keep their powder dry a bit longer. He can hope he gets some help from guys who think they can beat him in the sprint but who he can drop eventually.

So i think the team tactic will be to do a 1.5k leadout for Alaphilippe in the sprint (after all, that's clearly what they've been really training him for so far this season), so that the Frenchman can be outsprinted by Pogacar.

And Van Aert. And Martinez. And Bilbao. And Wellens. And my grandma.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Remember when Lefevere publicly roasted him for being too fat, which was why he wasn't able to follow in the mountains (2019)? Thanks to the teams effort, he is now as heavy as he was then. Current weight 64kg, according to an interview today in the newspapers.

 

[Extinction]

Really!
He closed similar gap last year and won.
Valverde in 2014 closed even bigger gap and won.
I repeat, he didn't had the legs to win, and Remco could last on the Mur only until the s-bend.

Right and I was suggesting an attack before the s-bend to draw out the favorites and expose any potential weaknesses of Alaphilippe's rivals. Quick-Step deploying Evenepoel thusly, I think would have been of better service to Alaphilippe, regardless if the Frenchman had the legs to finish it off. Consequently, I stand by my opinion that that would have been a more win-oriented tactic, than the one actually pursued by Quick-Step in the final 10 k of the race.

 

[TomBonnen2005]

Current weight 64kg, according to an interview today in the newspapers.

Link?

 

[Berflamand]

Link?

Exclusief dubbelgesprek met Gilbert en Evenepoel over hun passie voor Luik-Bastenaken-Luik: “Op een dag staat hij op je palmares, Remco”

Sterren komen, sterren gaan. Voor Remco Evenepoel (22) begint het zondag in Luik-Bastenaken-Luik, voor Philippe Gilbert (38) is het gedaan. In een exclusief dubbelgesprek preken de twee vrienden de passie voor ‘La Doyenne’, de Ardennen en... elkaar.

www.hln.be

It's behind a paywall. The part about his weight in the interview was like this:

"If I want to perform in the Grand Tours, my body will have to change a bit, I realize. From 64 to 64.5 kilos now, I have to get down to 63. In the Giro, last year, I weighed 60.5, but my strength was completely used up after the first week. While I really need those for my time trials as well.

After Liège-Bastogne-Liège I will take ten days of rest and then do nothing but train on longer climbs. In Spain and at high altitude. In June I will also ride the Tour of Switzerland. After the championships it's building up to the Vuelta. Where I still start without pressure. Without a specific result in my head."

 

[Escarabajo]

His Giro problems were not related to his weight. That is a poor excuse for not taking care of your weight. Quintana had the same issue and it killed him. And using the weight gain as defense for being better on TT and the flat but losing recovery for the mountains really bad.

 

[Extinction]

I don't see how only 1-1.5 kilos less is going to make the necessary boost in power to weight ratio for him to contend a GT victory. I think he needs last years Giro weight with the same watts he currently pushes. Whether or not he is physiologically capabable is another matter.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

2 kilos would makes a huge difference.
In Daniel Coyles book about Lance Armstrong there is a part about the Ventoux TT in Dauphine 2004 where Armstrong lost almost 2 minutes to Mayo.
There it says Brunyeel calculate that 1 kilo weight loss equals 1,25% each kilo and if Armstrong lost only 1 kilo before the Tour the gap would be less than half a minute.

So if Remco will have a 2,5% performance increase in climbs by going down to 62 kilos he should be a lot stronger.

 

[Netserk]

2 kilos would makes a huge difference.
In Daniel Coyles book about Lance Armstrong there is a part about the Ventoux TT in Dauphine 2004 where Armstrong lost almost 2 minutes to Mayo.
There it says Brunyeel calculate that 1 kilo weight loss equals 1,25% each kilo and if Armstrong lost only 1 kilo before the Tour the gap would be less than half a minute.

So if Remco will have a 2,5% performance increase in climbs by going down to 62 kilos he should be a lot stronger.

Following that line of reasoning, what's the lower limit? 50 kg? See him fly then ...

63 may very well be the optimum for him.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Exclusief dubbelgesprek met Gilbert en Evenepoel over hun passie voor Luik-Bastenaken-Luik: “Op een dag staat hij op je palmares, Remco”

Sterren komen, sterren gaan. Voor Remco Evenepoel (22) begint het zondag in Luik-Bastenaken-Luik, voor Philippe Gilbert (38) is het gedaan. In een exclusief dubbelgesprek preken de twee vrienden de passie voor ‘La Doyenne’, de Ardennen en... elkaar.

www.hln.be

It's behind a paywall. The part about his weight in the interview was like this:

"If I want to perform in the Grand Tours, my body will have to change a bit, I realize. From 64 to 64.5 kilos now, I have to get down to 63. In the Giro, last year, I weighed 60.5, but my strength was completely used up after the first week. While I really need those for my time trials as well.

After Liège-Bastogne-Liège I will take ten days of rest and then do nothing but train on longer climbs. In Spain and at high altitude. In June I will also ride the Tour of Switzerland. After the championships it's building up to the Vuelta. Where I still start without pressure. Without a specific result in my head."

If they really think him weiging 60.5kg last year was the problem, then they really are clueless. He weighed 61-62 when he was kicking Küng's and Dennis' butt in the Algarve TT so clearly he can still do great TT's at a lower weight as well. Knowing there are only few ITT km's in the Vuelta, him not losing more weight for his TT is beyond daft. He could possibly ride the ITT 20s faster being heavier, but he will easily lose a multitude of that by weighing 2kg more in the mountains.

Time to start looking for another team, Remco. Unless he's going to the Vuelta just for stagehunting, in that case, mosey on.

 

[TomBonnen2005]

I find his schedule very disappointing. Having to wait until mid August for a first big goal is not really common... Would have been interesting for his learning curve (and his palmares?) to copy Pidcock's schedule with all the classics and the Giro. And to see the second part of the season as a bonus rather than the main dish.

In fact his 2022 schedule would have been perfect for 2021, and his 2021 schedule perfect for this year... Quick Step strategy is quite confusing...

My feeling is that Evenepoel will finish the year with the Tour of Algarve, the Tour of Norway and the Tour of Burgos. I hope for him I'm wrong. But he will be under a lot of pressure with only 3 big objectives ahead (LBL, vuelta, Worlds), and the 3 extra kg his team gave him.

 

[Blanco]

Right and I was suggesting an attack before the s-bend to draw out the favorites and expose any potential weaknesses of Alaphilippe's rivals.

Mas already did that, and I doubt Remco could ride harder.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Following that line of reasoning, what's the lower limit? 50 kg? See him fly then ...

63 may very well be the optimum for him.

The “2 kilos would make a massive difference” was aimed at the poster above me which said only 1,5 kg wouldn’t be enough. Maybe just 1 kg would be really big. According to Bruyneels math two decades ago it would. Of course there is the question where the body can’t deal with weight loss. It seemed like 60 kg in Giro last year was too little, so I guess trying to do the Vuelta at 62ish could be sensible to try.

 

[Extinction]

Mas already did that, and I doubt Remco could ride harder.

Well it's up to his team to keep him in the game for that momment to find out if can go harder than Mas. As it was, he wasn't even in a position to try to be of any use. This is where I disagree with Quick-Step's managing of him late in the race; the difference between definitely being of no use and at least having the opportunity to be useful.

At any rate, the weight issue being discussed above seems to be a further factor or not just the weight, but he seems too stocky compared to the likes of Teuns, Vlasov, Valverde or Mas. He doesn't look withered enough to be honest.

 

[Red Rick]

If they really think him weiging 60.5kg last year was the problem, then they really are clueless. He weighed 61-62 when he was kicking Küng's and Dennis' butt in the Algarve TT so clearly he can still do great TT's at a lower weight as well. Knowing there are only few ITT km's in the Vuelta, him not losing more weight for his TT is beyond daft. He could possibly ride the ITT 20s faster being heavier, but he will easily lose a multitude of that by weighing 2kg more in the mountains.

Time to start looking for another team, Remco. Unless he's going to the Vuelta just for stagehunting, in that case, mosey on.

The Giro weight is whatever cause first race back and at so it's an insane reference poitn to extrapolate from.

I do think that even at 2020 weight he did less power than now, but it still seems really dumb to have him beef up.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yes, lets beef up for the Ardennes (primarily Liege) and Tour of the Basque Country, that increases his chances of following Pogacar on double digit gradients!

Who are these guys again??

 

[KZD]

Honestly after what I've seen from him this year, his biggest goal should be to become World TT champion where he has actually a decent shot, only Ganna and Van Aert should be above him in the favourites list

 

[Wvv]

From an interview with Het Nieuwsblad:

“Before the Basque Country, I worked very specifically on climbing for a month and I really felt that. The difference was big with Tirreno-Adriatico, which I started without any specific climb preparation. Then I also weighed a kilo more and that gives a completely different feeling uphill. I have found that as a rider I get the most pleasure from good climbing. In combination with the best possible time trials. I also think that I can still make the most progress in that area.”

How much margin do you have left in weight?
“I now weigh 64 kilos, which is already two and a half kilos less than in Valencia and the Algarve. But I'm never going to go under 60. You should not expect a major metamorphosis for the Vuelta either. The aim is to be there at 63 kilos. Last year I looked like a pure climber in the Giro, but we won't do that anymore. We know I have strong muscles, there's no point in changing that unnaturally. I have to make sure that my time trial remains a weapon.”

 

[Panda Claws]

I always read Remco has no sprint but I think he would absolutely crush most climbers in a Cancellara-like way if he went from far enough,

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

From an interview with Het Nieuwsblad:

So he weighed 66.5 kg in Valencia, and we were wondering why he struggled on the steep sections

The plan/idea of only a year ago has gone out the window, because clearly it was his weight that caused him to collapse after 2 weeks, and not his rehab and short prep without racedays that were to blame. Two months ago his trainer, Koen Pelgrim said we should expect a completely different Evenepoel in the Vuelta, now Evenepoel himself says not to expect a completely different Evenepoel. Seems like they have it all figured out. What a joke.

 

[Netserk]

From an interview with Het Nieuwsblad:

“Before the Basque Country, I worked very specifically on climbing for a month and I really felt that. The difference was big with Tirreno-Adriatico, which I started without any specific climb preparation. Then I also weighed a kilo more and that gives a completely different feeling uphill. I have found that as a rider I get the most pleasure from good climbing. In combination with the best possible time trials. I also think that I can still make the most progress in that area.”

How much margin do you have left in weight?
“I now weigh 64 kilos, which is already two and a half kilos less than in Valencia and the Algarve. But I'm never going to go under 60. You should not expect a major metamorphosis for the Vuelta either. The aim is to be there at 63 kilos. Last year I looked like a pure climber in the Giro, but we won't do that anymore. We know I have strong muscles, there's no point in changing that unnaturally. I have to make sure that my time trial remains a weapon.”

I don't think the weight of 66.5 kg was used here in this thread when interpreting his power numbers from the pre-season. Which is why a power file in itself doesn't tell you how many W/kg a rider pushes.

 

[Netserk]

As an example:

Someone got his watts on Strava : 392W for 38 minutes, to compare with Worlds ITT 2021 384W for 48 minutes. Quite impressive when you see today's route with lots of downhills. Should be somewhere around 6.3W/kg.

Had the weight of 66.5 kg been used here, the W/kg would have been just under 5.9.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't think his climbing has fluctuated nearly as much as the weight supposedly has over time. Even at the supposed 60.5kg the patterns of struggling on steeper climbs and doing better on shallower ones was still consistent.

IMO he should've just stuck to whatever was working well in the 2nd half of last year, and then make slight adjustment maybe after the Vuelta.