Impressive ride. Glad he’s overcome that awful crash, which I watched live while on a bikepacking trip and found so disturbing the trip was somewhat ruined.
Anyone who says he won’t win a Tour is obviously saying they don't want him to win a Tour. It’d be defensible to bet on him never winning because things come up, there’s always Pogi, Vingo, or a new Pogi or Vingo, always crashes, etc. and you never know. But clearly he has the tools to win it and time is on his side. Based on his performances, age, and trajectory, I would expect him to win at least one Tour (in addition to Giro, more Monuments, etc.). Different skill sets than Pogacar, but maybe as versatile, or if he isn’t now he will be soon.