Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Extinction]

I think the size stereotype with Roubaix may be playing a role here. He'll need to spend time to get used to riding cobbles, but his engine is more than enough to win Roubaix and Roubaix usually creates a breakway winner, which fits his primary win condition.

Of course he he has to enter the race to have a shot of winning but I think he's more than capable. I think if he wins Lombardia he'll race RVV and MSR next year (I think MSR is on the calendar next year away) and he'll attempt Roubaix for the first time in 2025 or 2026.

The Champions of old rode the cobbles, and appently we are dealing with that in the current cycling, so if Ganna and Moscon are capable of being competitive then so should Remco. It's a mindset, but he has to be full on.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I think Pog would have an excellent chance. He already proved at last year's TDF he can handle the cobbles. He had trouble extending his lead between the cobbles, however. That should be less of a problem in PR than a TDF cobble stage. I expect with Remco it would be the opposite

Andy Schleck, Menchov, and Contador also rode well on the cobbles of 2010 with Contador having a flat for awhile. It’s been discussed in years past that just because you do well in the Tour cobbles doesn’t mean it’s mutually inclusive to cobble classic success. Pog doing well in RVV and E3 are more hallmarks to success for PR than the Tour stage in my opinion.

 

[Oldermanish]

The Champions of old rode the cobbles, and appently we are dealing with that in the current cycling, so if Ganna and Moscon are capable of being competitive then so should Remco. It's a mindset, but he has to be full on.

We have to be strategically realistic on the body type that can ride serious cobble events. There is a reason that 99% of the winners are close to 6', 170 lbs. You have to be bigger to ride big gears forever on jarring pavement and taller to see what will kill your chances. Suggesting a 5' 7" and 140 lb rider can compete with a 6'4", 170 lb Ganna and 6', 160 lb Moscon is an unconnected logic leap. Why should Remco be able to do that?

More over; with Remco's talent, why would he want to?

 

[Big Doopie]

View: https://youtu.be/VrcQOrTQGsI


Looks pretty skinny at the end there. It must be the white kit that makes him look so “thick”.

 

[peterfin]

We have to be strategically realistic on the body type that can ride serious cobble events. There is a reason that 99% of the winners are close to 6', 170 lbs. You have to be bigger to ride big gears forever on jarring pavement and taller to see what will kill your chances. Suggesting a 5' 7" and 140 lb rider can compete with a 6'4", 170 lb Ganna and 6', 160 lb Moscon is an unconnected logic leap. Why should Remco be able to do that?

More over; with Remco's talent, why would he want to?

To answer your questions: we all know that a small rider with less overall power should normally be incapable to challenge the Wout's and Ganna's of this world in a flat TT yet Remco does. So, yes, he should be able to be competitive in PR and when he is able to do something he may want it (at some point). Heck, he may even start because of the challenge of it and not because it fits his profile perfectly!

 

[Oldermanish]

To answer your questions: we all know that a small rider with less overall power should normally be incapable to challenge the Wout's and Ganna's of this world in a flat TT yet Remco does. So, yes, he should be able to be competitive in PR and when he is able to do something he may want it (at some point). Heck, he may even start because of the challenge of it and not because it fits his profile perfectly!

You're still taking a leap in logic to the attributes that make a good PR rider. Comparing the results of power output in a TT (PR is definitely not a tt) on smooth pavement to the chaos of cobbled circuits would need some comparative data. It's not just that; it's the ability to absorb the abuse and tactically see the race. Shorter riders don't fare well in those situations unless you presume he would break away before the first cobbles and solo the distance.
He could address the rolling abuse of cobbles by gaining weight but I doubt that would make him faster.

 

[Big Doopie]

seems like the thread title is very appropriate...

https://flic.kr/p/2ngjXea

View: https://www.flickr.com/photos/67394469@N06/52025629911

https://road.cc/sites/default/files...evenepoel-wins-liege-bastogne-liege-2023.jpeg

only remco did it earlier...

Bwahaha!

 

[peterfin]

You're still taking a leap in logic to the attributes that make a good PR rider. Comparing the results of power output in a TT (PR is definitely not a tt) on smooth pavement to the chaos of cobbled circuits would need some comparative data. It's not just that; it's the ability to absorb the abuse and tactically see the race. Shorter riders don't fare well in those situations unless you presume he would break away before the first cobbles and solo the distance.
He could address the rolling abuse of cobbles by gaining weight but I doubt that would make him faster.

Remco is from Flanders. While he isn't riding on a bike that long, cobbles are part of his training since day one. He did 50x the Muur of Geraardsbergen in one ride as a training just for fun during the 2020 lock downs. He can handle cobbles. And tactically his style is also pretty simple: follow the best early on and attack before the real final starts so he doesn't need to deal with position tactics or accelerations on the cobbles.

 

[Andre]

View: https://youtu.be/VrcQOrTQGsI


Looks pretty skinny at the end there. It must be the white kit that makes him look so “thick”.

Thanks for the video Doopie

 

[jmdirt]

We have to be strategically realistic on the body type that can ride serious cobble events. There is a reason that 99% of the winners are close to 6', 170 lbs. You have to be bigger to ride big gears forever on jarring pavement and taller to see what will kill your chances. Suggesting a 5' 7" and 140 lb rider can compete with a 6'4", 170 lb Ganna and 6', 160 lb Moscon is an unconnected logic leap. Why should Remco be able to do that?

More over; with Remco's talent, why would he want to?

Every time that this discussion comes up, I can't help but wonder if a smaller guy would actually be able to go over the cobles more smoothly and therefore take less abuse. Maybe a dirt guy like TP or the like could do well/win PR?

 

[peterfin]

Every time that this discussion comes up, I can't help but wonder if a smaller guy would actually be able to go over the cobles more smoothly and therefore take less abuse. Maybe a dirt guy like TP or the like could do well/win PR?

More weight dampens the shocks a better while hitting the cobble stones so the story has always been that a heavy guy has a smoother ride. However, speed and material (tire width and pressure) are more important parameters. In many cases, the heavy guys have also the biggest power output (and speed) so they still come out on top unless it happens to be a light weight fellow with superb TT abilities of course.

 

[Oldermanish]

Roubaix is more about endurance than the cobbles imho. Yes, the cobbles are defining as they smash the peleton to pieces and make it much more a one to one battle as typically teams are unable to control the race. There is some handling involved (benefiting MVDP, WVA, ...) but the defining aspect is power (and aero). Remco has definitely a chance here.

Sorry, but "aero" is only useful when you're at the front of this race. Again; you can't avoid what you can't see. Can anyone recall a podium finisher shorter than 5'8"?

Every time that this discussion comes up, I can't help but wonder if a smaller guy would actually be able to go over the cobles more smoothly and therefore take less abuse. Maybe a dirt guy like TP or the like could do well/win PR?

Dirt is dirt. Cobbles are broken concrete with moss on them.

 

[Berniece]

According to Tom Boonen you don’t have to be weigh more to be good on the cobbles. If he thinks that’s not a necessity I follow his opinion since he’s the expert.

Dutch article on it:

Boonen gelooft dat Pogacar ooit Parijs-Roubaix kan winnen: "Onzin dat je zwaar moet zijn om over kasseien te rijden"

Kan Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) na zijn kabinetstukje in de Ronde van Vlaanderen ook ooit toeslaan op de kasseien van Parijs-Roubaix? "Ja", zegt viervoudig winnaar Tom Boonen. "In Roubaix gaat het vooral om het hoofd en de benen."

sporza.be

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Last Roubaix winner shorter than 1.7 meters was in the 60s. Emile Daems was 1.67m when he won in 1963

 

[Berflamand]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1651642075530575873

View: https://twitter.com/EvenepoelRemco/status/1651642075530575873?cxt=HHwWgoC2gfHt5-stAAAA


Looks like LBL was quite an easy ride compared to his training rides. I've never seen him pull a pain face like that in the race.

Such a shame we can't follow his training rides on Strava anymore.

 

[peterfin]

Sorry, but "aero" is only useful when you're at the front of this race. Again; you can't avoid what you can't see. Can anyone recall a podium finisher shorter than 5'8"?

Dirt is dirt. Cobbles are broken concrete with moss on them.

1983 winner Hennie Kuiper was 1m72. 1981 winner and 5 time TdF champion Hinault was 1m74 and had similar weight as Remco.

Size and weight obviously don't give him an advantage but they are not blocking a potential great performance at PR. Using statistics is neither helpful here because he is basically a statistical anomaly, an outlier in cycling history, together with a few others including Pogacar, Merckx and Hinault.

 

[Riek s]

More weight dampens the shocks a better while hitting the cobble stones so the story has always been that a heavy guy has a smoother ride. However, speed and material (tire width and pressure) are more important parameters. In many cases, the heavy guys have also the biggest power output (and speed) so they still come out on top unless it happens to be a light weight fellow with superb TT abilities of course.

I think the biggest takeaway is hat material has been changing over the years that makes riding cobbles more comfortable. So i'm assuming, just like RVV, lighter riders will slowly appear more and more at the front. I don't expect 60kg guys yet, but i expect a slow shift from 75+ to 65+kg

 

[rikvanlooy]

Evenepoel keeping it really really close in the 'most Big Wins at a certain age' race.

He is 23 years 2 months and 29 days old today and just notched his 4th big win (LBL 2022, Vuelta 2022, WCRR 2022, LBL 2023).

At that age Pogacar had just won Lombardia 2021 as his 4th big win (TDF 2020, LBL 2021, TDF 2021, Lombardia 2021)
At that age Merckx sat at 5 big wins (MSR 1966, MSR 1967, WCRR 1967, PR 1968, Giro 1968).

We know that Pogacar (currently 6) has so far not been able to keep pace with Merckx (9 at Pogacar's current age) since. Question is whether Evenepoel will.

It goes without saying that nobody else is really in this discussion.

You are correct. Pogacar and Evenepoel are amazing with regards winning the big ones. Merckx had 33, Coppi 17, Hinault 16, Binda 14, Bartali 12, De Vlaeminck and Girardengo 11, Van Looy 10, Kelly 9, Van Steenbergen and Moser and Boonen and Anquetil 8. It's almost certain that Pogacar and Evenepoel will win more than 10.

 

[DNP-Old]

 

[Panda Claws]

You are correct. Pogacar and Evenepoel are amazing with regards winning the big ones. Merckx had 33, Coppi 17, Hinault 16, Binda 14, Bartali 12, De Vlaeminck and Girardengo 11, Van Looy 10, Kelly 9, Van Steenbergen and Moser and Boonen and Anquetil 8. It's almost certain that Pogacar and Evenepoel will win more than 10.

And then you have Valverde at 6 wins but a 2nd place when it comes to Podiums in the big races.

 

[jmdirt]

Sorry, but "aero" is only useful when you're at the front of this race. Again; you can't avoid what you can't see. Can anyone recall a podium finisher shorter than 5'8"?

Dirt is dirt. Cobbles are broken concrete with moss on them.

Well, but dirt isn't just dirt. Its dirt, sand, rocks, gravel, mud, grass, water, boulders, braking bumps, whoops, drops, ruts, cement, asphalt... The ability to just let you bike 'flow' is an advantage in several ways on the cobles, not the least of which is using less energy.

 

[peterfin]

So Merckx misses just 1 big victory to have twice as much as the 2nd? We can't compare generations they say but sometimes the numbers just speak for themselves. Somebody may pass Coppi for 2nd place but Merckx stays on top until cycling as a sport ends.

 

[Didinho]

Training on his TT bike today, in his Belgian jersey. We won't be seeing his rainbow one in the Giro

 

[Oldermanish]

1983 winner Hennie Kuiper was 1m72. 1981 winner and 5 time TdF champion Hinault was 1m74 and had similar weight as Remco.

Size and weight obviously don't give him an advantage but they are not blocking a potential great performance at PR. Using statistics is neither helpful here because he is basically a statistical anomaly, an outlier in cycling history, together with a few others including Pogacar, Merckx and Hinault.

You get no argument from me on Remco's potential, should he choose to dedicate training for that unique effort.
So far we've seen a very small cross section of short riders in 60 years including an enraged Badger that famously said "Paris Roubaix is bullsh*t". He crashed alot and still made it into the prestigious small group for the velodrome win after a decimated field allowed him to ride freely back to it. Those smaller riders most recent wins were 40 years ago and before the trend of specialty we see today.
As for Boonen's opinion there is subtlety in it. If he thinks you don't need to be heavy to ride "well" or whatever his definition; he is a long reach to stating that a light, small rider isn't challenged to be a Winner.

 

[Panda Claws]

So Merckx misses just 1 big victory to have twice as much as the 2nd? We can't compare generations they say but sometimes the numbers just speak for themselves. Somebody may pass Coppi for 2nd place but Merckx stays on top until cycling as a sport ends.

Well to be fair Italians really didn't care for LBL or RVV at that time.