Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[The fridge in the blue trees]

Neither is Arensman.
Thomas is in complete new territory, with a second peak. At 70 years of age or something. Arensman surely starts as Co-Leader here, similar to Tao in the Giro.

 

[peterfin]

A question regarding Remco's Vuelta 2023: What is in your opinion a good result?

I would be satisfied with a podium spot, assuming that those ahead of him are Roglic and/or Vingegaard with up to a minute or two ahead of him. In that case he could leave the Vuelta with the knowledge that he is already at a point where he can challenge JV and Pogacar. His preparation for this Vuelta was probably ok but not optimal due to the change in plans and the team is neither so he and his team can still make some progress. The extra experience and data will help him too to prepare for the TdF so in that regard this mountain-heavy Vuelta with top opposition is a very good challenge for him that was not planned early on. I hope he can leave with the knowledge that he has an opportunity to beat JV and Pogacar and then goes all in this winter and spring to prepare optimally for that challenge.

 

[Netserk]

If he is on the path towards something greater (and last year's victory wasn't a one-off), he must beat at least one of the Jumbo captains and stay in contention for the overall victory throughout the race. Third in GC more than two minutes down would be a failure.

 

[Riek s]

Depends a lot on how the time delta comes to be.
If he is 10 minutes behind due to a multi pronged tactical attack from JV from the start and SQS is completely absent to help at all. Which results in him needing to make a choice to not ride or die trying...

If he is 5minute behind because he couldn't follow a straight up climbs where he wasn't in a strange tactical ploy/or fneuked by his team strength.

I think for Remco within SQS he needs podium. (also as indication his team is strong enough). For Remco personally it can be that he performs good enough to be close to the win, but is hampered by the team).

 

[Berniece]

A question regarding Remco's Vuelta 2023: What is in your opinion a good result?

I would be satisfied with a podium spot, assuming that those ahead of him are Roglic and/or Vingegaard with up to a minute or two ahead of him. In that case he could leave the Vuelta with the knowledge that he is already at a point where he can challenge JV and Pogacar. His preparation for this Vuelta was probably ok but not optimal due to the change in plans and the team is neither so he and his team can still make some progress. The extra experience and data will help him too to prepare for the TdF so in that regard this mountain-heavy Vuelta with top opposition is a very good challenge for him that was not planned early on. I hope he can leave with the knowledge that he has an opportunity to beat JV and Pogacar and then goes all in this winter and spring to prepare optimally for that challenge.

Podium is good, winning it is great.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Podium, physically not lose more than 30 s per stage time on the mountains with 50% being equal or win would be good enough. If he beats all of them by 30 s margin in at least 2 of mountain stages that would already be a good deposit towards success. Beat everybody in the TT by at least 30s. Any amount of tactical loss is ok.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

A stage win and top 3 GC would be a great result in a backup GT a few weeks after his target (WC ITT).

 

[houtdffan]

He needs to win this race or finish 2nd with many stage wins

Not sure why everyone is so googoogaga for Rog. He has that 1 or 2 horrible, no good, very bad days in every GT. He had 2 last year and Remco absolutely buried him those days (stage 6 and stage 9). He has a Mt Bondone repeat in this race, he's losing 1-2 minutes, not 30 seconds

 

[IndianCyclist]

Remco says "Strong team around me" Guess we will see in the coming week

 

[Riek s]

Remco says "Strong team around me" Guess we will see in the coming week

He includes bahrain who rides for Landa who rides for Remco.

 

[Oldermanish]

Remco says "Strong team around me" Guess we will see in the coming week

He also needs to ride the race and prove out any obvious weaknesses for next year's team.

 

[pman]

He just needs to ride a strong race, ideally, win or lose, he'd install some doubt into Jumbo Visma. Vingegaard is going to be exceptionally difficult to beat at the Tour until someone forces him to ride a tempo he's not comfortable with. That's how you break that kind of rider. The problem is Vingegaard can climb at a faster tempo than anyone else. Therefore, the obvious answer is that you don't beat Vingegaard in the climbs, you scare him with your time trialing ability and force him into a tempo he's not comfortable with on climbs, in order to make up for the time from the time trial. If Remco can put a minute, 90 seconds into Vingegaard in the time trial and then just keep up with him the best he can in the mountains who knows. I think a close top 3 is a success for him.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

. If Remco can put a minute, 90 seconds into Vingegaard in the time trial and then just keep up with him the best he can in the mountains who knows. I think a close top 3 is a success for him.

it’s 25 km, even Mas can probably lose less then 90 seconds.

 

[Berniece]

Watched the last 3 episodes of Rainbow Remco today. A fun behind the scenes of his biggest victories for this season yet. Would have preferred deeper conversations, but the interviewer isn’t good enough for that.

I also really dislike Remco’s taste in music. I’m happy I’m not a domestique for him. My ears would bleed having to listen to hardcore on the bus.

 

[Extinction]

He just needs to ride a strong race, ideally, win or lose, he'd install some doubt into Jumbo Visma. Vingegaard is going to be exceptionally difficult to beat at the Tour until someone forces him to ride a tempo he's not comfortable with. That's how you break that kind of rider. The problem is Vingegaard can climb at a faster tempo than anyone else. Therefore, the obvious answer is that you don't beat Vingegaard in the climbs, you scare him with your time trialing ability and force him into a tempo he's not comfortable with on climbs, in order to make up for the time from the time trial. If Remco can put a minute, 90 seconds into Vingegaard in the time trial and then just keep up with him the best he can in the mountains who knows. I think a close top 3 is a success for him.

Even if it was a hilltop finish, Vingegaard, it is said, produced the best TT in the history of the Tour last time. That doesn't indicate someone who can be easily gapped significantly in the races against the clock, unless the Tour brings back the 50+ km TTs on mostly flat to rolling terrain. Yet in the third week, reserves, more than sheer TT ability, come to the fore and Vingegaard seems to have the most reserves in week three. The problem thus is that the Vingegaard who won the last Tour showed no chinks in his armor. Indeed his meer pressence in this Vuelta seems to have had a humbling effect on Evenepoel, who now plays down any hope of winning and talks about just the podium or even claiming stages as constituting a successful race. Whereas if Vingegaard were not at the start, I think his stated ambition would be 'we come to try and win." Hopefully Remco has good climbing legs. He'll need them to build confidence in what he can achieve in this Vuelta and in prospect for a good Tour in 2024. Because if he gets dropped like a stone uphill, he could develop a harmful complex.

 

[Big Doopie]

…he looks pretty skinny…

Here’s hoping.

 

[Nick2413]

A stage win and top 3 GC would be a great result in a backup GT a few weeks after his target (WC ITT).

Is this really serious? I will never believe WC ITT is a bigger target than Vuelta for him even considering the change of plans.

 

[303pbmf]

This year it was, because the vuelta comes extra. It's pretty simple really.

 

[Extinction]

This year it was, because the vuelta comes extra. It's pretty simple really.

That's a fair point, but once you commit it's all in. It's no different for Roglic and Thomas. Now it's possible that maintaining his WCTT ambition will hurt his climbing in this Vuelta, but all the main competitors, save Ayusa and Almeida, have the Vuelta as "extra". So I really don't think that's an excuse if he isn't fighting for the top GC position, but stronger rivals.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Is this really serious? I will never believe WC ITT is a bigger target than Vuelta for him even considering the change of plans.

It’s of course not possible for us on the outside to know exactly, but the WC ITT was always mentioned as one of the three big targets this season, together with Liege and Giro. The Vuelta participation was not decided before early July, so it’s hard from the outside to think that something decided less than 2 months before the start of the race is a bigger target than something set as a big target before the start of the season.
But this is only my view of the situation of how this season has shaped up for him.

 

[Berniece]

Indeed his meer pressence in this Vuelta seems to have had a humbling effect on Evenepoel, who now plays down any hope of winning and talks about just the podium or even claiming stages as constituting a successful race. Whereas if Vingegaard were not at the start, I think his stated ambition would be 'we come to try and win."

He always says that he goes for a podium because he's aware that a fall, or a bad day might really influence his performance. It's a 3 week race, a lot can happen, therefor podium is always the more realistic goal, but he'll obviously try to win it.

Now it's possible that maintaining his WCTT ambition will hurt his climbing in this Vuelta, but all the main competitors, save Ayuso and Almeida, have the Vuelta as "extra".

He did say that he had to lose some weight after the WC ITT. I would think that he isn't as lean as he was last year though. Might lose a bit during the first few stages, but I don't think that's healthy.

 

[Extinction]

He always says that he goes for a podium because he's aware that a fall, or a bad day might really influence his performance. It's a 3 week race, a lot can happen, therefor podium is always the more realistic goal, but he'll obviously try to win it.

He did say that he had to lose some weight after the WC ITT. I would think that he isn't as lean as he was last year though. Might lose a bit during the first few stages, but I don't think that's healthy.

Last year he said he's going for top ten, with a stage victory (read: I'm here to win, but I can't say that or else I'll look presumptuous). This year, with Vingegaard showing up, he says: I'm going for the podium, but even if I just win some stages it will be a good Vuelta (read: I'm unsure if I can make the podium if I get dropped in the mountains, in which case I might drop out of GC altogether and go for some stages).

 

[Berniece]

Last year he said he's going for top ten, with a stage victory (read: I'm here to win, but I can't say that or else I'll look presumptuous). This year, with Vingegaard showing up, he says: I'm going for the podium, but even if I just win some stages it will be a good Vuelta (read: I'm unsure if I can make the podium if I get dropped in the mountains, in which case I might drop out of GC altogether and go for some stages).

Wouldn't it be a good Vuelta if he wins 4 stages? Let's say he falls, and loses 15min. GC is over, so he makes the best of it and wins 4 stages. Would you call that a bad Vuelta?

 

[Extinction]

Wouldn't it be a good Vuelta if he wins 4 stages? Let's say he falls, and loses 15min. GC is over, so he makes the best of it and wins 4 stages. Would you call that a bad Vuelta?

The worst case scenario is everybody's problem, crashing hard or illness. What I'm talking about is performance level, without problems. In that case, winning 4 stages while fighting for red, isn't the same as winning 4 after you've dropped out of contention.

 

[red_flanders]

Even if it was a hilltop finish, Vingegaard, it is said, produced the best TT in the history of the Tour last time. That doesn't indicate someone who can be easily gapped significantly in the races against the clock, unless the Tour brings back the 50+ km TTs on mostly flat to rolling terrain. Yet in the third week, reserves, more than sheer TT ability, come to the fore and Vingegaard seems to have the most reserves in week three. The problem thus is that the Vingegaard who won the last Tour showed no chinks in his armor. Indeed his meer pressence in this Vuelta seems to have had a humbling effect on Evenepoel, who now plays down any hope of winning and talks about just the podium or even claiming stages as constituting a successful race. Whereas if Vingegaard were not at the start, I think his stated ambition would be 'we come to try and win." Hopefully Remco has good climbing legs. He'll need them to build confidence in what he can achieve in this Vuelta and in prospect for a good Tour in 2024. Because if he gets dropped like a stone uphill, he could develop a harmful complex.

He’s said “podium and stages” before his last two GT’s. Dont think it has anything to do with his competition.