Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

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Volderke

Volderke

Mar 29, 2012
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Jagartrott said:
Without wanting to disrespect his teammates, but... looks like Evenepoel will have to do this mostly himself, starting with the TTT. The others with the exception of Cattaneo will only slow him down. He and Mattia can do a 2-man TTT, with enough people in the wheels hanging on until the end.
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Isn't Pedersen pretty decent? He had mostly top 10s in the TT he did this year.

Looking at Jumbo with Kuss, Kelderman, Gesink, Roglič, Valter, Vingegaard, van Baarle, Tratnik
vs. Soudal with Evenepoel, Vervaeke, Cattaneo, Bagioli, Hirt, Knox, Pedersen, Serry

I see above par TT in Roglic, Valter, Vingegaard, Van Baarle, while Soudal has Evenepoel, Cattaneo, Pedersen.

It's only 14.8K so even with the weaker Soudal team (on paper), it's mostly a matter of using resources efficiently and if so, differences will be 15-30s maximum.

But I agree it's a very weak selection. It seems like there wasn't really much choice and they desperately tried to select anyone who is a (half-decent) climber and there isn't anyone on the team I see pulling the peloton for a long time, so they are basically counting on other teams to do the work and already assuming the role of underdog.
 
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Extinction

Extinction

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Analysis on CN "comments": "That's the thing. They do not need to play with him (Roglic and Vingegaard). Either one will be a handful for him on their own.

But the biggest disadvantage for him is that Roglic has Vingo, Almeida has Ayuso, then you got Thomas, etc...these are all better than even the podium finishers last year!

All these guys are better than the podium finishers from last year....including Ayuso himself....Who does he have to mark all these guys?
Only crashes will allow this man to finish top three.

So his confidence is either foolish or full of it!"

I think this is a sh-it analysis, but what are the other opinions?
 
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Riek s

Jun 24, 2010
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Extinction said:
Analysis on CN "comments": "That's the thing. They do not need to play with him (Roglic and Vingegaard). Either one will be a handful for him on their own.

But the biggest disadvantage for him is that Roglic has Vingo, Almeida has Ayuso, then you got Thomas, etc...these are all better than even the podium finishers last year!

All these guys are better than the podium finishers from last year....including Ayuso himself....Who does he have to mark all these guys?
Only crashes will allow this man to finish top three.

So his confidence is either foolish or full of it!"

I think this is a sh-it analysis, but what are the other opinions?
Click to expand...
Easy to say with Remco dropping out of the Giro (in at that moment winning position), and Roglic dropping out of the vuelta (at that point in losing position).

Ayuso barely made the podium last year. Only because Carlos crashed, Roglic dropped out. (other dropping due to covid. Ayuso lost time due to covid, but i haven't seen anything this year that would make me put him as a GC contender). It is still strange that many see him as a potential win candidate, but Remco wouldn't make the podium :").

I think with this route and the major differences in team strength (and Vingegaard) this will be very hard to win. But loosing from vingegaard/roglic isn't a shame.
 
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red_flanders

red_flanders

Apr 3, 2009
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Extinction said:
Analysis on CN "comments": "That's the thing. They do not need to play with him (Roglic and Vingegaard). Either one will be a handful for him on their own.

But the biggest disadvantage for him is that Roglic has Vingo, Almeida has Ayuso, then you got Thomas, etc...these are all better than even the podium finishers last year!

All these guys are better than the podium finishers from last year....including Ayuso himself....Who does he have to mark all these guys?
Only crashes will allow this man to finish top three.

So his confidence is either foolish or full of it!"

I think this is a sh-it analysis, but what are the other opinions?
Click to expand...
Maybe. I think Mas was on some incredible form last year, Lombardia confirmed it. Teams aside, Remco is easily top 3 strongest individually. We'll see what happens.
 
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Extinction

Extinction

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Riek s said:
Easy to say with Remco dropping out of the Giro (in at that moment winning position), and Roglic dropping out of the vuelta (at that point in losing position).

Ayuso barely made the podium last year. Only because Carlos crashed, Roglic dropped out. (other dropping due to covid. Ayuso lost time due to covid, but i haven't seen anything this year that would make me put him as a GC contender). It is still strange that many see him as a potential win candidate, but Remco wouldn't make the podium :").

I think with this route and the major differences in team strength (and Vingegaard) this will be very hard to win. But loosing from vingegaard isn't a shame.
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Plus, it's been another strange season for the Belgian, so either he is a miss or he ups his game considerably. Obgectively, at 23 years old, it's impossible to predict.
 
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Volderke

Volderke

Mar 29, 2012
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Extinction said:
Analysis on CN "comments": "That's the thing. They do not need to play with him (Roglic and Vingegaard). Either one will be a handful for him on their own.

But the biggest disadvantage for him is that Roglic has Vingo, Almeida has Ayuso, then you got Thomas, etc...these are all better than even the podium finishers last year!

All these guys are better than the podium finishers from last year....including Ayuso himself....Who does he have to mark all these guys?
Only crashes will allow this man to finish top three.

So his confidence is either foolish or full of it!"

I think this is a sh-it analysis, but what are the other opinions?
Click to expand...
Just the most likely (but also optimal for Remco) scenario for the first week:
TTT: either Jumbo or Ineos wins this. So no pressure for Remco; another team has to defend the jersey. Ofcourse, Remco is behind in GC.
Stage 2: I don't see big gaps, at least no time loss for e.g. Roglic / Remco /...
Stage 3: I see Remco going good up that climb, and as he won't leading GC, his team doesn't have to work / pull.
Stage 4: I see nothing happening
Stage 5: I see nothing happening
Stage 6: A bit like stage 3, but steeper / harder. But who knows: last year, Remco destroyed everyone on steep climbs in the first week. So why would he be disadvantaged? Maybe because last year is not this year / Roglic is better this year / Vingegaard is a totally different level... We'll see. But most likely, Remco is still in the mix.
Stage 7: I see nothing happening
Stage 8: Tricky finale. I can actually see Remco getting dropped and Remco not able to chase back before the finish.
Stage 9: made for Roglic. Not really in favour of Remco.

If Remco rides like last year, I see him trying something on stage 3 and 6, and most potential for losing time on stage 8 and 9 (and 1 ofcourse).
If he manages to survive / be in the mix, he'll have stage 10 (the ITT) to try and gain some time. He'll need all he can, as stage 11 is another unipuerto (made for Roglic), stage 12 is nothing happening, stage 13 is key (Tourmalet), 14 is perfect for a raid with team mates in front (on Larrau), so much better for a stronger team. If Remco is still in the mix, and both Roglic and Vingegaard can aim for podium / the win, it's a stage where they can both work anyone over like they did with Pogacar on Granon. Stage 15 seems for the breakaway, stage 16 is another unipuerto (Roglic?), stage 17 (Angliru) can actually benefit Remco again, stage 18... I don't know, it's very hard but it's late in the race. Maybe things already are decided. Stage 19 is nothing, stage 20 is a bit lame.

If anything, the parcours seems to benefit a good Roglic (and he is good), and if Remco wants to win / be in the mix, he can't afford a weak moment in the mountains, and his stronges weapon (the TT) is pretty early in the race. All depends on Vingegaard's level, and if Remco isn't vulnerable (e.g. descents) and can keep a high level into the 3rd week. After analysing, it will be hard for Remco, but it's up to him to show what he's got. I don't see his team featuring anywhere in stages where sending a rider up the road could be beneficial... It will already be a miracle if his team can carry the weight of the race.
 
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peterfin

Feb 24, 2020
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A "JV show" will make it difficult but he has also some strengths he can build on. His season sofar was better than last year. Roglic did not drop him in Catalunya. The TdS showed that his base level is good, probably better than last year and that he learned to ride defensively and conserve energy. He outclasses top Ganna in TT's. He starts to win sprints against decent competition. His classic wins show again that he can put pressure on the competitions during the +200 km stages. He knows the Vuelta climbs and prepares the race better than anyone. His team is not great but last year neither and at least it's clear that they are all there to help him. There is no co-leadership.
 
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Extinction

Extinction

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Volderke said:
Just the most likely (but also optimal for Remco) scenario for the first week:
TTT: either Jumbo or Ineos wins this. So no pressure for Remco; another team has to defend the jersey. Ofcourse, Remco is behind in GC.
Stage 2: I don't see big gaps, at least no time loss for e.g. Roglic / Remco /...
Stage 3: I see Remco going good up that climb, and as he won't leading GC, his team doesn't have to work / pull.
Stage 4: I see nothing happening
Stage 5: I see nothing happening
Stage 6: A bit like stage 3, but steeper / harder. But who knows: last year, Remco destroyed everyone on steep climbs in the first week. So why would he be disadvantaged? Maybe because last year is not this year / Roglic is better this year / Vingegaard is a totally different level... We'll see. But most likely, Remco is still in the mix.
Stage 7: I see nothing happening
Stage 8: Tricky finale. I can actually see Remco getting dropped and Remco not able to chase back before the finish.
Stage 9: made for Roglic. Not really in favour of Remco.

If Remco rides like last year, I see him trying something on stage 3 and 6, and most potential for losing time on stage 8 and 9 (and 1 ofcourse).
If he manages to survive / be in the mix, he'll have stage 10 (the ITT) to try and gain some time. He'll need all he can, as stage 11 is another unipuerto (made for Roglic), stage 12 is nothing happening, stage 13 is key (Tourmalet), 14 is perfect for a raid with team mates in front (on Larrau), so much better for a stronger team. If Remco is still in the mix, and both Roglic and Vingegaard can aim for podium / the win, it's a stage where they can both work anyone over like they did with Pogacar on Granon. Stage 15 seems for the breakaway, stage 16 is another unipuerto (Roglic?), stage 17 (Angliru) can actually benefit Remco again, stage 18... I don't know, it's very hard but it's late in the race. Maybe things already are decided. Stage 19 is nothing, stage 20 is a bit lame.

If anything, the parcours seems to benefit a good Roglic (and he is good), and if Remco wants to win / be in the mix, he can't afford a weak moment in the mountains, and his stronges weapon (the TT) is pretty early in the race. All depends on Vingegaard's level, and if Remco isn't vulnerable (e.g. descents) and can keep a high level into the 3rd week. After analysing, it will be hard for Remco, but it's up to him to show what he's got. I don't see his team featuring anywhere in stages where sending a rider up the road could be beneficial... It will already be a miracle if his team can carry the weight of the race.
Click to expand...
Too many variables. It's like saying we'll know when it's over, although I appreciate your detailed analysis.
 
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Eddy Evenepoel

Eddy Evenepoel

Aug 31, 2019
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Jagartrott said:
Without wanting to disrespect his teammates, but... looks like Evenepoel will have to do this mostly himself, starting with the TTT. The others with the exception of Cattaneo will only slow him down. He and Mattia can do a 2-man TTT, with enough people in the wheels hanging on until the end.
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A TTT isnt the added sum of qualities in ITT. On such a short course and with corners i think a rider like Bagioli can be useful, as he’s a decent TT rider and pretty explosive. As mentioned by someone else above, Petersen should be a brilliant contributor and Vervaeke is also not useless. I expect these 3 to go to the line with Remco and Cattaneo, with Knox, Hirt and Serry to drop.
 
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O

Oldermanish

Jan 31, 2016
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houtdffan said:
If Remco is on form, the way for Remco to negate the team deficiency is to simply go to the front himself and set the tempo on the climbs. The doms will be quickly dropped and he then will only have to deal with other leaders
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If he can do that at 80% effort, sure. Problem is, some of the doms can climb better for long periods than the protected riders. In only takes Kuss to screw with that plan. Remco has to pick his wheel and stick with it as a strategy. JV may devolve into internal competition and, if I'm hoping for Remco's success; that situation becomes obvious at a critical time. Then he's stuck leading the other JV guy as far out on GC as he can.
 
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houtdffan

Jul 20, 2019
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Oldermanish said:
If he can do that at 80% effort, sure. Problem is, some of the doms can climb better for long periods than the protected riders. In only takes Kuss to screw with that plan. Remco has to pick his wheel and stick with it as a strategy. JV may devolve into internal competition and, if I'm hoping for Remco's success; that situation becomes obvious at a critical time. Then he's stuck leading the other JV guy as far out on GC as he can.
Click to expand...

Kuss is not staying on Remco's wheel. He couldn't even stay on Remco's wheel at UAE when Remco was not in shape
 
O

Oldermanish

Jan 31, 2016
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houtdffan said:
Kuss would never stay on an in form Remco's wheel. Only Vingegaard and probably Pog. Even Rog struggled last year
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You're missing my point. Kuss is likely tired per Peterfin, but if he's not he can stay on and accelerate off of any of the contenders. He's shown he can do it when it was requested.
None of these guys are going to "struggle" on Remco's wheel unless somehow the race has taken everyone to the brink on a particular stage. Remco and his team will be challenged to strategically do that so I think his best hope/strategy is JV doing damage to the field and their own resources in the process and Remco saves what he can. In the right situation Remco could separate the two JV guys and maybe with Yates or someone he'd have the opportunity to demonstrate the power you suggest he has.
If he can blow up the GC enough to guarantee a podium he could take that as a major success under the circumstances. Where he chooses to do that would be key, as well.
 
Extinction

Extinction

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Remco climbed very well in the Vuelta last year, but it did not have the repeated long climbs of this edition or those of the past Giro that illness, alas, prevented him from tackling. So in this regard Remco is still a bit of an unknown entity; that is, in the multi-high mountain stages, which will make this Vuelta a good test for him. His recent marathon, high mountains training ride seems to have been concieved to address this very issue. Frankly, I don't see why he would have any more difficulty than his competitors, as the pacing is the same for everybody. Still the Tourmalet stage will doubtless be critical in determining if Remco is capable of defending his title. Although, there, anyone can go into crisis, including Vingegaard and Roglic, if the legs falter on the finishing climb. At any rate, Remco is facing more experienced rivals, who know how to win three-week bike races, than himself, which may be another conditioning factor. We'll see.
 
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S

saunaking

Jul 22, 2010
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houtdffan said:
If Remco is on form, the way for Remco to negate the team deficiency is to simply go to the front himself and set the tempo on the climbs. The doms will be quickly dropped and he then will only have to deal with other leaders
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But also, with the depth of talent in this Vuelta he is going to have a bunch of domestiques chasing all the moves anyway.
Kuss & Kelderman
Almedia & Vine
Arensman & Bernal

Until Roglic & Jonas show themselves, I don't see anybody daring to attack Jumbo
maybe having Vine set a high pace if Ayuso feels good could be interesting, seeing which of the contenders will drop
 
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