Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Berniece]

Evenepoel's time trial got even better this year, while all his best climbing performances date back to 2022, from what (little) I can tell. Definitely leaning towards that.

Usually there's a tradeoff.

I get that he wanted to win the WC ITT badly, after last year's near miss and getting pretty close in 2019 already. But not sure if it was that great for his development as a possible future Tour de France contender.

I agree that there was a tradeoff, but there's a lot of time between now and the TDF. I think they are going all in on getting lean again, and aiming for that 60-61kg with a focus on climbing. He's already got the WC ITT jersey now, and that's the most important part for him. He can mark that on his checklist. He'll probably win it again in the future, but on a more hilly terrain, he won't prepare for it like he did this year. Which means that for the next few years I don't immediately see him make big changes in his physique after going back to his lean Vuelta 2022 shape.

 

[peterfin]

I "liked" your last point because I understand it takes strenght and focus to realize that you are not made in a certain way and crossing the path to reach it is a deviation from your nature. Remco just has to find himself and realize that he's very talented, but that doesn't mean he can win all sorts of races.

Peter Sagan famously said - I quote him from memory - that he did not want to be the next Merckx, he wanted to be the first Peter Sagan. And that's what Remco needs to hear: be yourself and not what they told you would become.

As for the first part, it's not even logical. Having a good or bad team does not have a bearing on either you collapse in a multiple high-mountain stage.

Remco has said from day 1 that he didn't want to be the new Merckx but the new Remco. Any reference to Merckx is due to click bait media and fans lacking realism.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Any reference to Merckx is due to click bait media and fans lacking realism.

and people thinking the OP was 100% serious when he named this topic like this for a junior

 

[Elos Anjos]

Remco has said from day 1 that he didn't want to be the new Merckx but the new Remco. Any reference to Merckx is due to click bait media and fans lacking realism.

I think everyone is over the thread title pun, but my point is larger. Remco might not be the next Merckx, but perhaps he still believes he can be a GT contender. I think going down that path his a choice but not warranted by performances. It would be a bit like WVA suddenly shifting attentions from classics to GTs.

I take that knowing yourself as a rider comes with age. Rui Costa is a perfect example of a rider that has a very developed skill of reading both riders, races and parcours, as well as his own strenghts and weaknesses. If Remco cultivates other mental virtues besides training, he would become more deadly, IMHO.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

That reasoning would totally made sense if WVA also had won a GT at the age of 22…

 

[Extinction]

I think everyone is over the thread title pun, but my point is larger. Remco might not be the next Merckx, but perhaps he still believes he can be a GT contender. I think going down that path his a choice but not warranted by performances. It would be a bit like WVA suddenly shifting attentions from classics to GTs.

I take that knowing yourself as a rider comes with age. Rui Costa is a perfect example of a rider that has a very developed skill of reading both riders, races and parcours, as well as his own strenghts and weaknesses. If Remco cultivates other mental virtues besides training, he would become more deadly, IMHO.

You are drawing wild conclusions. Two of his GTs ended badly due to situations that have nothing to do with his talent, he won one and had a really bad day in another, winning 3 stages. At 23 that's more than most achieve in their whole careers. How then does this indicate that he can't fight for GT wins in the future? I doubt he's an Aru or even a Nibali, both of whom won at least one GT. All he needs to demonstrate again next year at the Tour, is that he can perform solidly over three weeks. If he does, he's back in the game, if not he should reconsider the matter. But we don't know yet, whereas you are saying a priori what can only be stated a posteriori.

 

[Elos Anjos]

You are drawing wild conclusions. Two of his GTs ended badly due to situations that have nothing to do with his talent, he won one and had a really bad day in another, winning 3 stages. At 23 that's more than most achieve in their whole careers. How then does this indicate that he can't fight for GT wins in the future? I doubt he's an Aru or even a Nibali, both of whom won at least one GT. All he needs to demonstrate again next year at the Tour, is that he can perform solidly over three weeks. If he does, he's back in the game, if not he should reconsider the matter. But we don't know yet, whereas you are saying a priori what can only be stated a posteriori.

It can indeed happen that Remco proves to be a GT contender after all but it would be a sudden shift in a trajectory that no other current, steady GT contender has recently showed. It's becoming more and more unlikely. Such riders have invariably held their own for three weeks since they were young and of course that may be due to not having a wide range of talents like Remco: by being good in GTs they already know where they focus should be, whilst Remco does not know where he should focus because he's so good in many ways.

 

[Berniece]

By being good in GTs they already know where they focus should be, whilst Remco does not know where he should focus because he's so good in many ways.

That's what they expect at the moment at SQS. That this season they went for too much, too diverse, and this has the biggest impact on races that are hardest, namely 3-week stage races.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

It can indeed happen that Remco proves to be a GT contender after all but it would be a sudden shift in a trajectory that no other current, steady GT contender has recently showed. It's becoming more and more unlikely.

One can actually see a little bit of Mas trajectory in Remco, just that Remco is slightly younger and have a bit better results (looking here at GTs only, overall the results are massively better).

When Mas was 22 and did his first GT he had a 3rd place in the break in the first week and then he faded and didn’t do anything until he helped Contador on Angliru stage 20. He ended 71st in GC.
Remcos first GT (age 21) he was good the first week, then faded and DNF’ed while he was still top 30 in GC.

In Mas second GT he was second behind Simon Yates in Vuelta and won a stage. In Remcos second GT he won two stages and GC.

Then in his third year racing GTs Mas did the Tour and he started pretty well. After 13 stages he was 4th in GC and ahead of the eventual winner Bernal. He then got sick and faded a lot and finished 22nd. He did not race the Vuelta that year.
In Remcos third year racing GTs he was leading the Giro after 9 stages but abandoned with Covid. He then rode the Vuelta, failing the GC bid but still finished 12th with 3 stage wins.

Then in Mas 4th year riding GTs he was 5th in both Tour and Vuelta confirming he is a quality GC rider and laid the foundation for repeating his best GC performance the two following years with another 2 GC podiums in the Vuelta.

If Remco follows Mas trajectory adjusted for his slightly higher level that should mean a top 5 in the Tour next year and winning GTs (but probably not the Tour) the two following years.

 

[Extinction]

It can indeed happen that Remco proves to be a GT contender after all but it would be a sudden shift in a trajectory that no other current, steady GT contender has recently showed. It's becoming more and more unlikely. Such riders have invariably held their own for three weeks since they were young and of course that may be due to not having a wide range of talents like Remco: by being good in GTs they already know where they focus should be, whilst Remco does not know where he should focus because he's so good in many ways.

Remco, though, is a case apart. He's Belgian and thus has the enormous weight of expectation placed upon his shoulders. He arrived relatively late into the sport, etc. And he had a career threatening crash at the beginning. Hence, I don't think we can draw long term conclusions at this point and, honestly, I've tried to refrain from doing so. I've thought his genetic makeup was similar to Lemond's, but better poised to take advantage of it in the classics and stage races as a Belgian. But then I wonder if he has the build to compete against the Vingegaards and Pogacars of today. Yet I, nor anybody at this point, am capable of drawing conclusions. Next year at the Tour, if he's capable of putting 3 solid weeks together, I'm not writing him off, as that would be normal without those other "crazy guys". However, his team is a great concern, especially at the Tour, so it isn't just about him. And I gave you a thumbs-up, because what you say is rational, but I don't think conclusive.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Remco's collapse was independent of the quality of the team he had to face.
Your whole argument can be advanced to the case of Mas. In the end it's about having the legs like Remco did not have.

And you know this how?

Please enlighten us when Mas was even an afterthought at La Vuelta. Prior to the race start , he was +1800, the 6th betting favorite.

The top 3 betting favorites were Vingegaard +110, Roglic +225, and Remco +380.

Mas never held the lead and never even podiumed a stage.

Remco had 3 wins 3 2nds.

So, no you can't advance the case of Mas because he was never in contention and didn't even affect the race.

 

[hayneplane]

Evenepoel's time trial got even better this year, while all his best climbing performances date back to 2022, from what (little) I can tell. Definitely leaning towards that.

Usually there's a tradeoff.

I get that he wanted to win the WC ITT badly, after last year's near miss and getting pretty close in 2019 already. But not sure if it was that great for his development as a possible future Tour de France contender.

One other issue I see is that he doesn't know when to drop. 2023 Javalambre, 2022 La Pandera. That's a bigger issue in a TDF context where teams have better climbing support / more riders who are on form.

We can hope that now he has ticked off the World TT title on his palmares he will give up on making it a priority focus and tailors his training and weight towards climbing multi cat 1 and HC climbs in a stage.

 

[Blanco]

You are drawing wild conclusions. Two of his GTs ended badly due to situations that have nothing to do with his talent, he won one and had a really bad day in another, winning 3 stages. At 23 that's more than most achieve in their whole careers. How then does this indicate that he can't fight for GT wins in the future? I doubt he's an Aru or even a Nibali, both of whom won at least one GT. All he needs to demonstrate again next year at the Tour, is that he can perform solidly over three weeks. If he does, he's back in the game, if not he should reconsider the matter. But we don't know yet, whereas you are saying a priori what can only be stated a posteriori.

What did you wanted to say with this? He's no Nibali in terms of what?
I know he's not Nibali, and I doubt he will be, but I'm curious what exactly you were trying to say? I kind of missed the point...

 

[houtdffan]

We can hope that now he has ticked off the World TT title on his palmares he will give up on making it a priority focus and tailors his training and weight towards climbing multi cat 1 and HC climbs in a stage.

let's wait and see what the tour route is next year first.

Rumors are of 2 TTs. If the week 1 rumored TT is an actual tour length TT, then he needs to be prepped for that as he can take big time in it

 

[Unchained]

His style points while racing make me a fan . The nickname Cannibal could definitely fit Remco. He has a hard charging style that I am sure Eddy Merckx can appreciate

 

[Extinction]

What did you wanted to say with this? He's no Nibali in terms of what?
I know he's not Nibali, and I doubt he will be, but I'm curious what exactly you were trying to say? I kind of missed the point...

I meant I believe he's a bigger talent than Nibali, who won all three GTs. This doesn't mean Remco shall do likewise, but to say he doesn't have the stuff for GTs is, I think, premature to say.

 

[red_flanders]

For those suggesting he’s always going to be limited as a GT rider or advocate that he do other races, or not go for GC…

…get a grip. He’s 23. He’s facing the best generation of GC riders since the 80s.

Just calm the f*** down already. His story nowhere close to being written.

 

[proffate]

As for the first part, it's not even logical. Having a good or bad team does not have a bearing on either you collapse in a multiple high-mountain stage.

If Remco were on JV, an opponent never would have gotten such an uncomfortable lead and Remco would also never have collapsed. When's the last time JV's science team let one of their riders have a bad day?

 

[AmRacer]

He’s facing the best generation of GC riders since the 80s.

Is that an excuse?

 

[Berniece]

I know he's not Nibali, and I doubt he will be

Lol, maybe compare palmares at the age of 23 of both riders.

 

[Blanco]

I meant I believe he's a bigger talent than Nibali, who won all three GTs. This doesn't mean Remco shall do likewise, but to say he doesn't have the stuff for GTs is, I think, premature to say.

He surely is, but Nibali wasn't the biggest talent out there, yet he had a phenomenal career. In terms of GT's purely, there's a long way in front of Remco to reach Nibali.

 

[Blanco]

Lol, maybe compare palmares at the age of 23 of both riders.

Lol, maybe I want to compare them at the end.
And maybe you actually read in what context did I wrote that.

 

[Berniece]

Lol, maybe I want to compare them at the end.

Obviously the best comparison is made at the end, but you are now already saying that you doubt he'll reach the palmares of a rider as Nibali. I'm saying maybe the trajectories should be compared at the same age, since I would assume younger riders still have time to grow. Maybe Remco will plateau and never win a GT again, but that's a weird thing to say for someone who already won one. So I found the assumption that Nibali will have had a better career than Remco weird.

 

[peterfin]

Nibali had 52 Pro wins and Remco is already at 50. Regarding the quality of those wins, the PCS all time ranking could be used as a reasonable reference. Remco currently has 68% of the points of Nibali. Unless Remco fades the coming years and never reaches his current level it is hard to see why he wouldn't surpass Nibali and this in a period with exceptional competitors.

 

[Salvarani]

Nibali had 52 Pro wins and Remco is already at 50. Regarding the quality of those wins, the PCS all time ranking could be used as a reasonable reference. Remco currently has 68% of the points of Nibali. Unless Remco fades the coming years and never reaches his current level it is hard to see why he wouldn't surpass Nibali and this in a period with exceptional competitors.

Nibali raced against exceptional riders, as well, and he is one himself.