Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[AmRacer]

oh for sure, likely and not guaranteed, maybe i should have gone for "possible" or something

We will have a big figth for the yellow and another bigger fight for the white.

 

[Peter von]

We will have a big figth for the yellow and another bigger fight for the white.

yeah, will be fun to see how it plays out. two of the white contenders are also doms for two big favorites for the yellow, so maybe they'll have to sacrifice themselves.

 

[shadowrider]

I can only hope the madness stops at 63kg, and can understand he'd be a bit above that now since he was behind schedule.

Well, I can reassure you. He achieved to to reduce his weight to about 61.5 kg. Enough for an extra 25 seconds in a tough final climb. Not enough to challenge Pogacar, Vingegaard and even Roglic. But enough to compete till the final km against most opponents.

 

[Berniece]

Well, I can reassure you. He achieved to to reduce his weight to about 61.5 kg. Enough for an extra 25 seconds in a tough final climb. Not enough to challenge Pogacar, Vingegaard and even Roglic. But enough to compete till the final km against most opponents.

Why isn't it enough to challenge them? Take for example his first week in the Vuelta '22. In that form he isn't that far from Pogacar/Vingegaard, which we saw from his (estimated) w/kg performance during the climbs in that week.

 

[shadowrider]

For the fans, the neutral cycling enthusiasts and the haters

Evenepoel also said during the interview that gaining weight was and will always be an issue. He gains an average of 5 kg in the off-season. From which I deduce that if he wants to win another GT, he has to do so within two to three years. Because with his physique and metabolism it will become increasingly difficult to achieve the ideal GT weight. I guess Evenepoel will turn in only a (still strong) one day racer in a few years.
One of the problems with overweight after his fractures, was not only the inactivity, but also the core/arm/shoulder excercices he had to do with the physiotherapist during his recovery and revalidation. Those muscles were difficult to finish. After the Dauphiné, he phased out the core training to lose weight. Also he was on a diet.
After his crash in the dauphiné, he suffered from his knee(patella). An injury which is still not completely healed. But in general, Evenepoel seems optimistic for the upcoming weeks.

 

[Berniece]

Evenepoel also said during the interview that gaining weight was and will always be an issue. He gains an average of 5 kg in the off-season. From which I deduce that if he wants to win another GT, he has to do so within two to three years. Because with his physique and metabolism it will become increasingly difficult to achieve the ideal GT weight.

What does his metabolism have to do with gaining 5kg of muscle mass and fluids? Because it isn't fat that he's gaining off-season.

 

[shadowrider]

Why isn't it enough to challenge them? Take for example his first week in the Vuelta '22. In that form he isn't that far from Pogacar/Vingegaard, which we saw from his (estimated) w/kg performance during the climbs in that week.

Yes, not that far from the Pogacar/Vingegaard in that period. Buth both became stronger since then (maybe with the exception of Vingegaard during the upcoming Tour, due to his training backstand). Moreover, I don't think Evenepoel can maintain that level for three weeks. Maybe Pogacar, (Vingegaard) and Roglic, Rodriguez also not. But still better, I think.

 

[AmRacer]

For the fans, the neutral cycling enthusiasts and the haters

Evenepoel also said during the interview that gaining weight was and will always be an issue. He gains an average of 5 kg in the off-season. From which I deduce that if he wants to win another GT, he has to do so within two to three years. Because with his physique and metabolism it will become increasingly difficult to achieve the ideal GT weight. I guess Evenepoel will turn in only a (still strong) one day racer in a few years.
One of the problems with overweight after his fractures, was not only the inactivity, but also the core/arm/shoulder excercices he had to do with the physiotherapist during his recovery and revalidation. Those muscles were difficult to finish. After the Dauphiné, he phased out the core training to lose weight. Also he was on a diet.
After his crash in the dauphiné, he suffered from his knee(patella). An injury which is still not completely healed. But in general, Evenepoel seems optimistic for the upcoming weeks.

I would like to see Remco doing a full classics season, from SB, MSR all the way to LBL. Maybe skip a few sprinter races and PR. The "extra" weight won't matter then, it will be an advantage.
Remco has shown us miltiple times he has the ability to power away from the peloton at anytime and do long range attacks.

 

[shadowrider]

What does his metabolism have to do with gaining 5kg of muscle mass and fluids? Because it isn't fat that he's gaining off-season.

It is fat, muscles and a bit liquids. It's clear that his build and metabolism allowing him to gain more muscle and fat faster with limited inactivity.

It is also a big misunderstanding that no (extra) muscles are grown with limited inactivity. That may not be the case with you and me, but it is the case with top athletes. The body of a top athlete is designed to develop muscles, also during lower activities. Every household activity, a chore, working in the garden, builds muscle (and preferably in places that are not interesting for a top athlete). Evenepoel is also running during the off-season, which mainly provides extra calf muscles.
So do skeletal riders, but to a much lesser extent. So they barely gain one to two kilos.

 

[shadowrider]

I would like to see Remco doing a full classics season, from SB, MSR all the way to LBL. Maybe skip a few sprinter races and PR. The "extra" weight won't matter then, it will be an advantage.
Remco has shown us miltiple times he has the ability to power away from the peloton at anytime and do long range attacks.

That will be his future anyway. But I can understand he wants to win another GT and perform (podium ?) at least once in the Tour. But if he wants to perform also in Strade bianche, Milan-San Remo, even Flanders, another San Sebastian, he has to drop the Giro and the Tour. Which should still allow him to occasionally participate in the Vuelta at the end of the season.

 

[AmRacer]

That will be his future anyway. But I can understand he wants to win another GT and perform (podium ?) at least once in the Tour. But if he wants to perform also in Strade bianche, Milan-San Remo, even Flanders, another San Sebastian, he has to drop the Giro and the Tour. Which should still allow him to occasionally participate in the Vuelta at the end of the season.

He can still do one one-week race in February.

 

[Berniece]

It is fat, muscles and a bit liquids. It's clear that his build and metabolism allowing him to gain more muscle and fat faster with limited inactivity.

It is also a big misunderstanding that no (extra) muscles are grown with limited inactivity. That may not be the case with you and me, but it is the case with top athletes. The body of a top athlete is designed to develop muscles, also during lower activities. Every household activity, a chore, working in the garden, builds muscle (and preferably in places that are not interesting for a top athlete). Evenepoel is also running during the off-season, which mainly provides extra calf muscles.
So do skeletal riders, but to a much lesser extent. So they barely gain one to two kilos.

He said no fat, only muscles and liquids. I'm just not sure why a slower metabolism will have a negative effect on this. I would even think this might have a positive effect because this will reduce how quickly his muscle mass will grow.

 

[Ulle97]

What are the chances that Remco can hold the wheel of Pogacar on the Galibier on stage 4. If he can hang in on this stage I feel he will be in a good position until at least stage 14.

I just can't see him matching the top 3-4 climbers on Pla d'Adet, Plateau de Beille and Bonette/Isola. Could lose minutes on these stages.

 

[houtdffan]

For the fans, the neutral cycling enthusiasts and the haters

Evenepoel also said during the interview that gaining weight was and will always be an issue. He gains an average of 5 kg in the off-season. From which I deduce that if he wants to win another GT, he has to do so within two to three years. Because with his physique and metabolism it will become increasingly difficult to achieve the ideal GT weight. I guess Evenepoel will turn in only a (still strong) one day racer in a few years.
One of the problems with overweight after his fractures, was not only the inactivity, but also the core/arm/shoulder excercices he had to do with the physiotherapist during his recovery and revalidation. Those muscles were difficult to finish. After the Dauphiné, he phased out the core training to lose weight. Also he was on a diet.
After his crash in the dauphiné, he suffered from his knee(patella). An injury which is still not completely healed. But in general, Evenepoel seems optimistic for the upcoming weeks.

So, remco was respecable while being sick and having a busted knee…

 

[shadowrider]

What does his metabolism have to do with gaining 5kg of muscle mass and fluids? Because it isn't fat that he's gaining off-season.

Inevitable, also fat. But many people think that an athlete is only gaining fat during the off-season. That's not the case of a trained topsporter. At least, not the first two or three months. Almost the opposite with a normal being. Just practice sports, even training during (spring) summer (autumn). Not doing a lot during winter (drinking a beer regularly, eating out regularly.....).So, maybe you and me. Believe me, the weight we/they are gaining during that period is mostly fat and a bit liquids. Proportionately more fat than a heavily trained top athlete who is out of action for a few weeks during the winter.

 

[Berniece]

Inevitable, also fat. But many people think that an athlete is only gaining fat during the off-season. That's not the case of a trained topsporter. At least, not the first two or three months. Almost the opposite with a normal being. Just practice sports, even training during (spring) summer (autumn). Not doing a lot during winter (drinking a beer regularly, eating out regularly.....).So, maybe you and me. Believe me, the weight we/they are gaining during that period is mostly fat and a bit liquids. Proportionately more fat than a heavily trained top athlete who is out of action for a few weeks during the winter.

So Evenepoel is lying? When he says he barely gains fat, he’s lying and you know better?

 

[shadowrider]

What are the chances that Remco can hold the wheel of Pogacar on the Galibier on stage 4. If he can hang in on this stage I feel he will be in a good position until at least stage 14.

I just can't see him matching the top 3-4 climbers on Pla d'Adet, Plateau de Beille and Bonette/Isola. Could lose minutes on these stages.

If there is no heavy fight on the Galibier, it's possible that Evenepoel, Pidcock, Vlasov, Jorgenson, Bardet, Bilbao, Gall, Carapaz, Gaudu, Martinez etc. could hold up. But I would be very surprised if Pogacar wouldn't attack heavily there. After a fierce pace by his teammates. Then at most I see Roglic, Rodriguez and possibly Simon Yates holding out for a while. Once dropped, they could be overtaken (in the descent?) by some previously dropped riders, but also by Pogacar's teammates, Ayuso, Adam Yates and Almeida.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Well, I can reassure you. He achieved to to reduce his weight to about 61.5 kg. Enough for an extra 25 seconds in a tough final climb. Not enough to challenge Pogacar, Vingegaard and even Roglic. But enough to compete till the final km against most opponents.

He now weighs 61.5kg? In case he achieved that riskfree, i would be pleasantly surprised and optimistic. Not only because i think he actually would be a lot more competitive, but mainly because it completely debunks what you have been claiming for the past weeks, lol.
Seriously though, i'm sceptical because PL claimed he needed to lose just 1kg, which meant he was 62.5 in the Dauphiné and i do not buy that for one second. Or. He lost more weight than 1kg, and as we discussed and both agree, that is risky.

 

[shadowrider]

So Evenepoel is lying? When he says he barely gains fat, he’s lying and you know better?

Well, barely... I say not gaining a lot of fat (as we non topsporters would do). Because Evenepoel is a topathlete. So, it's more a semantic question.

 

[Berniece]

Well, barely... I say not gaining a lot of fat (as we non topsporters would do). Because Evenepoel is a topathlete. So, it's more a semantic question.

Sure, I just don’t see an issue with future GT endeavours if his metabolism would slow down due to age.

 

[AmRacer]

Sure, I just don’t see an issue with future GT endeavours if his metabolism would slow down due to age.

He won't ride GT's in his 40s.

 

[Berniece]

He won't ride GT's in his 40s.

shadowrider was talking about in 2-3 years. So as if Evenepoel at age 28 isn't able to win a GT anymore due to his metabolism.

 

[AmRacer]

shadowrider was talking about in 2-3 years. So as if Evenepoel at age 28 isn't able to win a GT anymore due to his metabolism.

I doubt his metabolism has slowed down when he is 28.

 

[shadowrider]

He now weighs 61.5kg? In case he achieved that riskfree, i would be pleasantly surprised and optimistic. Not only because i think he actually would be a lot more competitive, but mainly because it completely debunks what you have been claiming for the past weeks, lol.
Seriously though, i'm sceptical because PL claimed he needed to lose just 1kg, which meant he was 62.5 in the Dauphiné and i do not buy that for one second. Or. He lost more weight than 1kg, and as we discussed and both agree, that is risky.

It was 1,5 kg (but not knowing what the ideal weight is). This can be perfectly achieved by doing (much) less core training compared to the Dauphiné and by cycling more and longer. Combined with a diet.
Of course that's not the ideal situation. It would have been better if, like Roglic, Jorgenson, Rodriguez, he just had to lose a little more weight (half a kilo?) after the Dauphiné. But the situation is what it is. After his crash, surgery, recovery, physiotherapy and first trainingweeks. The method followed is/was certainly better than forcing himself to aim for the (almost) ideal weight at the start of the Dauphiné. Which means he might have performed better during the Dauphiné, but not during the Tour.

Now if we were to compare with Van Aert, who started training about three (?) weeks earlier than Evenepoel. He was still not close to his very best form on Sunday. Also a bit too heavy. But I dare not predict what all these unwanted situations will bring about for Van Aert, Evenepoel, Cras and Vingegaard in the Tour. but I dare say that it will probably not turn out well for two of them, but it will for the other two . So, fifty fifty. I cannot predict which riders will be the lucky ones..

 

[shadowrider]

I doubt his metabolism has slowed down when he is 28.

It's not only physically, also mentally. Roglic not having the same metabolic weight issues even in his mid thirties, probably the same for Vingegaard and Pogacar when going to their late twenties. It's far more easy for those riders to keep their weight under control. Physically and mentally. I'm not sure whether Evenepoel will continue to do so for many years to come. Let's just look at Sagan, who gradually lost the battle against the pounds at the age of 28. He was never able to reverse this and has barely achieved anything after the age of 28.