Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[AmRacer]

This makes sense if not for the headwind. With the headwind, I don't think you do that. It will be a lot more straightforward once we hit climbs like Plateau de Beille and Isola where we expect Remco and Jonas to just launch all over and then we could see Remco just time trialing to the top

In his chase for Tadej Merckx.

 

[topt]

First part fair, he’s not a threat to Pogi. Only Vingo and MVDP are, depending on the race and whether it’s a A race for them.

The second part…sounds like maybe you’re not adjusting your opinion to current facts? Hard to see assessing Remco as top 10. Right now he looks like the 3rd strongest in the race and could well win the TT.

My response was to Logic claim Remco will become a contender which means he will have to beat Pog.
Yes right now, but we have a lot of evidence to believe my prediction is right

 

[Berflamand]

My response was to Logic claim Remco will become a contender which means he will have to beat Pog.
Yes right now, but we have a lot of evidence to believe my prediction is right

If you can only be a GT-contender when you have beaten Pog that basically means that only Pog and Vingegaard actually are GT-contenders in todays field.

That is obviously a way too strict definition of the word 'contender'.

 

[topt]

If you can only be a GT-contender when you have beaten Pog that basically means that only Pog and Vingegaard actually are GT-contenders in todays field.

That is obviously a way too strict definition of the word 'contender'.

doesnt the word contender mean fighting for win.... and yes its true, only Pog and Jonas are contenders for tour

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

So much improved over the Dauphine I actually believe a bit again. Wasn't even that far in response to Pogi's attack either.

 

[Berniece]

doesnt the word contender mean fighting for win.... and yes its true, only Pog and Jonas are contenders for tour

Isn't he fighting for the win? He'll win the TT, and gain time, doesn't that automatically mean you are fighting for the top position? You are making the assumption that eventually Pogacar will win. Well then no one is a contender besides Pogacar. But only looking at the past 4 stages, Evenepoel is a contender, since he's in front of Vingegaard too.

 

[topt]

Isn't he fighting for the win? He'll win the TT, and gain time, doesn't that automatically mean you are fighting for the top position? You are making the assumption that eventually Pogacar will win. Well then no one is a contender besides Pogacar. But only looking at the past 4 stages, Evenepoel is a contender, since he's in front of Vingegaard too.

a lot of riders are fighting to win, only 2 are contenders;he will win the TT ? first time I hear about that
Assumption ? if Pog doesnt crash there is ZERO chance Remco beats him in this tour; I bet my account on this

 

[Valanga]

Before this tour I was very skeptical about Evenepoels abilities:
*) on high mountains (never performed well above 2000m, although he barely raced at that altitude)
*) on really difficult climbs (combination of length and gradient)
*) during a succession of multiple climbs
*) towards the end of a gt (in all 4 gt´s he has raced so far, his first half was undeniably better than the second half).

Yesterday´s stage has at least convinced me about his high altitude capabilities. Stage 14 will sort out the next two question marks and stage 19 the last one. But let´s not forget that the mountains in stage 4 suited his "aerobullet" capabilities very well (low gradient, so high speed, so aerodynamics play a larger role). The long flats between climbs in stage 15 should also suit him.

How so?
Giro 2021: well yeah, we know what happend there and how stupid it was to ride that GT.
Vuelta 2022: he won stage 18 for example, that's not exactly fading?
Giro 2023: he abandoned after winning the TT on stage 9 with covid.
Vuelta 2023: he cracked on the first few km's going up on stage 13. Still not sure what actually happened there, but in any case it's not exactly "towards the end", nor was it because of "a succession of multiple climbs".

I really can't see the same pattern that you apparently see.

 

[Berniece]

a lot of riders are fighting to win, only 2 are contenders;he will win the TT ? first time I hear about that
Assumption ? if Pog doesnt crash there is ZERO chance Remco beats him in this tour; I bet my account on this

First time you heard that the current WC ITT would win the first TT in the TDF?

 

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

I don't care if this guy (kid) is a junior, he is insane and we need to get the hype started. Secure your place on the bandwagon when it's still early, because Evenepoel is about to take over the entire cycling world. The things he does as a junior per se are beyond great, but this is a guy (kid) who had never even touched a race bike until April of last year(!).

Just this week, Evenepoel destroyed everything in his path. First he became the U19 Belgian TT champion, with a time that would have landed his #1 in the U23 time trial as well, and then he won Course de la Paix - one of the more prestigious U19 races - in dominating fashion. He won two of the four stages in the process, first securing the W in the time trial, proceeded by a huge solo in today's ultimate stage, putting minutes into everyone.

Here goes the next Eddy Merckx.

So, do you guys think it's late for me to get the hype started 1030 pages later?

 

[shadowrider]

Great performance today, a bit unexpected TBH. I do hope he'll be able to repeat this but all things considered: these shallow gradients, UAE's headwind pacing allowing him to draft comfortably did work in his favor.

At this moment he clearly benefits from carrying 2.5kg less, but i wonder whether this aggressive weight loss in such a short period of time won't turn against him in the 2nd half of the Tour.

He lost enough weight, but of course not 2,5 kg. Part of that weight loss is due to the planned atrophy of his upper body. That part of the weight loss does not reduce body resistance (as a defense against viruses).

 

[shadowrider]

Evenepoel and Pogacar have faced in a TT 5 times prior. On average Evenepoel takes 2.26s per km on Pogacar.
However, 4 out of those 5 TT's were championship TT's, and the only TT they faced each other in a GC was an opening TT in Tirreno. So all TT's were raced "fresh".
That said, the first TT both should be "relatively" fresh as well, and Evenepoel looks bullish on the flats so far.

But also Pogacar. I expect him not to lo lose more than 20 to 25 seconds. It's a pity (for Evenepoel )it's only a 25 km TT. I wonder what the TT-results of Ayuso (also a TT-specialist) and Almeida wil be. I expect them both perform very well and being in the top 5 after Friday.

 

[shadowrider]

Brilliant ride from Remco love to see it! The second strongest today (all be it a mountain that suits his characteristic? arrest me if im wrong)

But love to see it hopefully it continues and he just gets better then it can get really interesting suspect he and Pogacar smash the TT too.

I think, if Poga had attacked earlier (he should have done, even with headwind), he would have taken more time at the summit, and Evenepoel would probably have come back on Vingegaard before the summit.

 

[shadowrider]

So, do you guys think it's late for me to get the hype started 1030 pages later?

Well, he didn't take over the cycling world.... and he didn't became (become) the new Merckx. It was rather Pogacar who did that, but not completely.

But Evenepoel did meet some of the expectations, despite serious injuries.

 

[shadowrider]

It could be that Pog and Vingegaard are peaking right now isn’t. 27-30 the optimal age for endurance athletes and Remco still can improve? It’s not that many percentage different if this is Remcos level now.

We don't know. It could also be the reverse. Evenepoel, as a junior, already being at another level than his peers. More than Pogacar was, and certainly far more than Vingegaard. So I guess, Vingegaard could last longer as a GT-rider. Especially because Vingegaard is specialising in GT's and is not spending energy in one-dayraces (as Evenepoel and Poga do).

 

[topt]

First time you heard that the current WC ITT would win the first TT in the TDF?

a bit different dont you think winning WC and winning TT in 3 week race while trying to go for top 10 spot

 

[Didinho]

a bit different dont you think winning WC and winning TT in 3 week race while trying to go for top 10 spot

He won almost all his TT’s in GT’s when going for GC. Some with impressive margins. Even one in the Giro while sick.

 

[shadowrider]

His descending was not very good but in the end he only loses 18s to Pogacar from the top to the finish. There have been GC riders who lost minutes on descends.

But it is one of the other issues the team was supposed to address 3 yeas ago. They were going to have him do some training on cornering at high speeds with a MotoGP friend of Cavendish (when they were still team mates). Never happened. But since Evenepoel descends "well" on training, they assume he will do the same when riding 20kmh faster for GC in the biggest race of all and the issue got solved by itself.

In fact, I have never seen him descending that bad. Well, at least when caught by camera. That makes sense, because the very first part of the descent, he didn't lose to much time. But then, he suddenly lost more time. Shortly afterwards we could see him caught by camera, completely cramped on the bike. That agrees with his statement that after a few turns he almost crashed because of the meltwater. Already a bad downhill racer by nature, his old demons returned. He was lucky that in the second part of the descent, there was a fewer steep and winding road where he did not lose more time.

 

[Berniece]

a bit different dont you think winning WC and winning TT in 3 week race while trying to go for top 10 spot

The last TT, sure, but on the 7nd stage while he was very good on Galibier and the next two stages are flat? Nope he'll definitely beat any GC candidate unless he crashes.

 

[Sciatic]

It could be that Pog and Vingegaard are peaking right now isn’t. 27-30 the optimal age for endurance athletes and Remco still can improve? It’s not that many percentage different if this is Remcos level now.

If everyone started training like a pro at the same age that should be true, but the (albeit older) theory is that riders “age” in terms of GTs finished. For example, Kuss aged 3 yrs in “pro biker” years in 2023

 

[shadowrider]

a bit different dont you think winning WC and winning TT in 3 week race while trying to go for top 10 spot

You are right, but not for this first TT (Evenepoel should win there). For the second TT, the last day of the Tour, it comes down more to shape and freshness. In addition, it is half a climbing time trial, with a difficult descent to Nice. I don't see him winning there and maybe losing a lot of time on Pogacar and Vingegaard. Hopefully that loss of time will no longer have too much of an influence on his place in the GC.

 

[Sciatic]

I liked the way Remco responded when Tadej attacked with one kilometer to the summit. First Vingo went, and then I saw Remco accelerate and almost catch Vingo...he then settled in and gapped everyone else it seemed. A little trouble on the downhill but much better than I expected. I believe Tadej went full gas and it all amounted to some seconds gained (what was it 40 45 seconds?) Maybe too much effort for less gain than he thought...just my observation. post scriptum: Vingo looks strong but will his form last?

A 45-sec lead for the race favorite after Stage 4 is in no way a small gain for the effort expended. People sometimes forget the other riders finishing behind him did not arrive on e-bikes or in a horse carriage. That is, They likely expended as much energy as Pog.
I’m not trying to downgrade Remco’s chances. But there is a common judgement bias in which people’s brains tend see the “two birds in the bush” as looking better than the one in the hand. Pogacar has those 45 seconds in hand and should not be discounted.

 

[shadowrider]

I think he will gain over a minute on vingeegard

Steels was talking about stage 4. Not about GC in Nice. Maybe we should not count our chickens before they hatch. I can see a scenario for Pogacar, Evenepoel and Vingegaard where each of them fade in week 3. Pogacar because he's been racing hard all season and already rode the Giro. Vingegaard because he needed to race against the clock to get ready. Evenepoel because he might have tried to lose the needed weight too fast. After all, uphill so far Pog was 8 seconds better than Vingegaard, and 23 seconds better than Evenepoel.

One would think Roglic could benefit from it. Because he had the best preparation. But after seeing him perform in stage 2 and 4, and considering his age, I don't think this will be the case anymore.

 

[Sciatic]

Will be interesting to see if he can beat Pogi on Friday. The climb is a bit nastier than I thought so could be a close one. Would be great for the race if Remco could come closer.

Will be awesome for the racing!

 

[Didinho]

Rewatched the descent and with 13km to go he got dropped by the other 3. That was my moment where I thought everything was over, see him taking that corner really bad just after. The group was given 35”.
To only lose that amount at the finish is not bad after all, when I thought in that moment he would lose easily another half minute.

From hoping he could get to Vingo, to hoping he could follow these 3 and not losing more. Gaining back again and looking strong in the end. Emotional rollercoaster.

There was also one image of Pogi flying over a little cornered bridge above 70km/h. I imagine Remco going way slower there with his Lombardia crash in mind.