The Sky-Con-O-Meter. Predictions on how much more ridiculous they can get

[Dear Wiggo]

Something's bothering me about this whole chainring, +4% business.

I read somewhere Brad trains on normal rings and TT races on Osym rings.

If I knew my chain rings were overestimating my power by 4% (~20W), I would be bumping my power 20 watts for the race, so I was performing at my true threshold. 20W is a lot - enough to make a difference when looking at a power meter display.

So we're either saying
1. Brad only does 430W for real. (hence the 6.26 listed above) which looks like 450W with Osyms ring installed - OR -
2. Brad did 450W for real - and it displayed as 470W on his PM, but he's already fixed that back to 450W when talking about it later, in his book.

Apparently Brad is intelligent. And if acoggan knows the 4% difference, I'd be pretty confident Julich + Kerrison + Wiggins also knows.

Is this +4% Osym difference mentioned anywhere in his book?

My point being: subtracting 4% is very handy for acoggan who has an indirect commercial relationship with Sky and wishes to project an aura of Sky performance believability. It's also good for Sky to have any numbers published magically reduced as part of the subsequent discussion.

But it's not necessarily a given that the calculation has not already been done pre-publishing.

 

[SundayRider]

The interview where he lost it and let out a load of expletives showed that he isn't really that intelligent.

 

[Gregga]

It would be interesting to know what Sir Knighthood's power outputs of 2007 were, autobus Brad that is, nowhere near Sir Knighthood of now is my guestimate.

Clean Bradley was averaging 47km/h in Albi in 2007 when dirty Vino was doing 48.5. In 2012, he did 48.5 and 50km/h in the two ITT of Besançon and Chartres. That's certainly part of the answer. But flat ITT are not the best way to evaluate power. In the '09 Giro - last power files ever published - he averaged 400w on his powertap for Alpe di Siusi, which must be corrected at 415w for the drivetrain loss. According to his book, his weight was 71.5kg, that made 5.8w/kg, enough be in the top 10 in the first mountain stages, better I guess than Armstrong but much lower than what we saw last July. Marginal gains.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Anyway if you have to dope like crazy to achieve 6.8w/kg then you can produce 6.5w/kg cleaner than clean, hmmm.

I don't think there's any need to try to inflate the figure to fit the theory.
6.3w/kg (Gregga's reasoned estimate) is sufficient to question.

 

[SundayRider]

I wonder when Brad changed and why...

 

[Dear Wiggo]

I wonder when Brad changed and why...

I posted my theory elsewhere: 2006 he tried to win the prolog at the Dauphine and failed miserably. He was on the road with a road focus and a team dedicated to him winning that 4.1km (ring a bell?) race.

~1000 days later (see Tyler Hamilton's book for relevance) he competed in the Tour de France, and ended up 4th overall against known dopers. A big birdie to Brailsford who had not included him in the plans for Sky.

 

[Wallace and Gromit]

If memory serves, LeMond's estimates of his maximum possible efforts were ~5.9w/kg for long climbs at the end of a mountain stage and ~6.3w/kg for a one-off effort in a GT, such as a TT.

The cumulative impact of a stage prior to the final climb makes a significant difference (adverse) vs. a rested effort.

 

[Wiggo Warrior]

Yeah I was surprised as well. The weight was included in a different part of the book to the wattage but still...

The weight was in the 2011 tour section, he put on a couple of kilos of core muscle for 2012 after problems TTing in the Vuelta according to reports which means closer to 6.62w/kg in the 2012 TT.

Ooops, missed the bit where the TT 470w was for a 6km section. Book re-reading time...

 

[thehog]

Anyway if you have to dope like crazy to achieve 6.8w/kg then you can produce 6.5w/kg cleaner than clean, hmmm.

SundayRider you're a welcome addition to the Clinic.

From your notations Wiggins as fast if not faster than Lance in ITT - watt for watt, yes?

 

[samerics]

The interview where he lost it and let out a load of expletives showed that he isn't really that intelligent.

Nonsense, I take it you've never lost your temper then? He's far from stupid, but when you've just left your **** on the road for 5 hours you're not going to be relaxed for an interview like that.

 

[thehog]

Nonsense, I take it you've never lost your temper then? He's far from stupid, but when you've just left your **** on the road for 5 hours you're not going to be relaxed for an interview like that.

Based on that theory then every rider, in fact every sportsman should behave in the same manner?

Excuses. Excuses.

 

[BroDeal]

I posted my theory elsewhere: 2006 he tried to win the prolog at the Dauphine and failed miserably. He was on the road with a road focus and a team dedicated to him winning that 4.1km (ring a bell?) race.

~1000 days later (see Tyler Hamilton's book for relevance) he competed in the Tour de France, and ended up 4th overall against known dopers. A big birdie to Brailsford who had not included him in the plans for Sky.

I mark the change of heart happening at the 2009 P-N time trial where he was beaten by Contador. By 2010 his blood values were at the same suspicion level as Armstrong and the other GT contenders. If we could get our hands on the 2012 list then Wiggins and crew would probably all be pulling nines and tens.

 

[samerics]

Based on that theory then every rider, in fact every sportsman should behave in the same manner?

Excuses. Excuses.

Ridiculous. I never said that, but then you know that. No excuses. I'm not saying he's right, I'm just saying that when someone has buried themselves in the Tour for five hours, drugs or no drugs, you're not always in the best of tempers when all you want is a massage and a long bath! It's not a sign of a lack of intelligence, more of a quick temper and a bit of arrogance. God, everyone on here is bloody perfect!

 

[thehog]

Ridiculous. I never said that, but then you know that. No excuses. I'm not saying he's right, I'm just saying that when someone has buried themselves in the Tour for five hours, drugs or no drugs, you're not always in the best of tempers when all you want is a massage and a long bath! It's not a sign of a lack of intelligence, more of a quick temper and a bit of arrogance. God, everyone on here is bloody perfect!

But it wasn't after a stage. It was a scheduled press conference in the evening. Showered, change of clothes, some food, relaxation time.

One might ask the question he was asked to deserve such a tirade.

The anwser to his behavior might be in the question.

Do you remember the question he was asked?

 

[Dear Wiggo]

I mark the change of heart happening at the 2009 P-N time trial where he was beaten by Contador. By 2010 his blood values were at the same suspicion level as Armstrong and the other GT contenders. If we could get our hands on the 2012 list then Wiggins and crew would probably all be pulling nines and tens.

I'm more inclined to believe 2009 was his experimental year and 2010 he was strangled by new team management, his performances, all of Sky's performances, reflecting this.

2011 he was back on the wagon. Ooh look, Dr Leinders is here. Well I never.

Regardless of these theories, having the blood passport values, with dates, from 2009 - 2012 should surely paint a telling picture of cleanliness or dirtiness.

People are so quick to jump on the "you're not an expert" or "you're a hater" bandwagon, but here's the bottom line: 5 years of blood profile data cannot be anything but complete and irrefutable proof either way. It's too much data tied to too many training camps and race results to be anything but indicative of clean or doped riding.

 

[Wiggo Warrior]

But it wasn't after a stage. It was a scheduled press conference in the evening. Showered, change of clothes, some food, relaxation time.

One might ask the question he was asked to deserve such a tirade.

The anwser to his behavior might be in the question.

Do you remember the question he was asked?

I seem to remember it was something like "What would you say to those people who say you have to be doped up to win the Tour"

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I seem to remember it was something like "What would you say to those people who say you have to be doped up to win the Tour"

It was actually more along the lines of asking him to address those people who had made the comparisons - that Wiggins and Sky themselves had been practically begging for - to US Postal, but not the comparisons that were wanted.

 

[The Hitch]

I posted my theory elsewhere: 2006 he tried to win the prolog at the Dauphine and failed miserably. He was on the road with a road focus and a team dedicated to him winning that 4.1km (ring a bell?) race.

~1000 days later (see Tyler Hamilton's book for relevance) he competed in the Tour de France, and ended up 4th overall against known dopers. A big birdie to Brailsford who had not included him in the plans for Sky.

I believe Wiggins was clean in 2007 hence the very admirable stance he took against doping and the fury that was clear in his voice when he spoke about it.

For me the total absence of anything resembling such passion against doping since his return in 2009, outright contradicting most of the things he said and even at one point denying it occured, is of course the biggest cause for sceptisicsm in wiggins.

Because all the other stuff i could in theory understand. Maybe somehow Wiggins really is this once in a generation talent and maybe Bailsford lies arent hiding doping and maybe marginal gains really does work and so on.

But what other explanation can there possibly be for someone to almost overnight switch from such an intense stance against those responsible for doping in cycling (including calling out Brunyeel by name) to not just preaching coexistence with them but even defending them and denying the problem exists.

How does someone who finds getting searched by police for doping so traumatic that he openly questions if he will ever return to the sport, a couple of years later remark that doping happened "15 years ago"?

That puzzle just doesnt fit, even when i try to carve it.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

I believe Wiggins was clean in 2007 hence the very admirable stance he took against doping and the fury that was clear in his voice when he spoke about it.

As do I.

My memory of anti-doping 180s is limited, but are there any other examples where a rider was under performing vs other dopers, and vocal about it, then a few years later managing to beat those same riders but no longer vocally anti-doping? And subsequently done for doping?

Did Tyler or Floyd ever say anything early in the piece? I am inclined to believe he was clean for the first ~1000 days.

Liberty Seguros - does your enviable encyclopaedic knowledge base throw any other examples up that match this pattern? (Vocal re: anti-doping, then a few years later almost the opposite).

I seem to remember David Millar was vocally annoyed about being asked about it, then got done, but not strictly vocally anti-doping.

 

[thehog]

It was actually more along the lines of asking him to address those people who had made the comparisons - that Wiggins and Sky themselves had been practically begging for - to US Postal, but not the comparisons that were wanted.

Well Wiggins was referring to the Sky team as US Postal in January of that year - Cycling Weekly Magazine..

He made further references till about May 2012 and also said they were like Indurain and Banesto.

In 2011 he made his I love Lance statements and 500 tests etc.

Around the time of the USADA charges dropped Wiggins started talking more about Indurian and referred to dopers like "Virenque".

So the journalist asked "What do you say to those people who liken you to US Postal.." he didn't get the end of e question out before the rant has started....

Never fall in love with Lance.

 

[Cycle Chic]

Wiggins steller 2012

When he thanked LANCE on the Paris-Nice podium something 'wasn't Normal' !! Wiggins First British Paris-Nice Victor in 45 Years
http://bicycling.com/blogs/thisjust...-first-british-paris-nice-victor-in-45-years/

Just looked at his Results on the Sky site...its so abnormal its not funny.

2012 RESULTS

Volta ao Algarve: 1st Stage 5, Finished 3rd overall
Paris - Nice: 1st overall 1st Stage 8, 2nd Stage 1, 3rd Stage 5,
Volta a Catalunya: DNF
Tour de Romandie: 1st overall 1st Stage 1, 1st Stage 5,
Criterium du Dauphine: 1st overall 1st Stage 4, 2nd Prologue,
Tour de France: 1st overall 1st Stage 9, 1st Stage 19, 2nd Prologue, 3rd Stage 7, 3rd Stage 17,
Olympic Games: 1st overall
Tour of Britain: DNS
World Championships: DNF

2011 RESULTS

Tour of Qatar: Finished 31st overall
Paris - Nice: 2nd Stage 6, Finished 3rd overall
Milano - San Remo: Finished 44th overall
Criterium International: 2nd Stage 3, Finished 41st overall
Driedaagse De Panne: 0th Stage 3a, Finished th overall
Scheldeprijs: Finished 126th overall
Paris - Roubaix: Finished 90th overall
Tour de Romandie: Finished 62nd overall
Bayern-Rundfahrt: 1st Stage 4, Finished 14th overall
Criterium du Dauphine: 1st overall 2nd Stage 3, 3rd Prologue,
Tour de France: DNF
Vuelta a Espana: Finished 3rd overall 3rd Stage 10,
World Championships: Finished 2nd overall
World Championships: Finished 108th overall


2010 RESULTS

Tour of Qatar: Finished 114th overall
Ruta del Sol: 2nd Stage 4, Finished 48th overall
Vuelta a Murcia: 3rd Stage 4, Finished 3rd overall
Vuelta al Pais Vasco: Finished 35th overall
Fleche Wallonne: Finished 67th overall
Liege - Bastogne - Liege: Finished 74th overall
Giro d'Italia: 1st Stage 1, Finished 40th overall
Tour de France: Finished 24th overall
GP Ouest-France: Finished 119th overall
Tour of Britain: 2nd Stage 5, Finished 35th overall
Paris - Tours: Finished 71st overall
Il Lombardia: DNF

 

[Wiggo Warrior]

It was actually more along the lines of asking him to address those people who had made the comparisons - that Wiggins and Sky themselves had been practically begging for - to US Postal, but not the comparisons that were wanted.

That seemed like more like an observation to me (The chatter in the twitter-sphere re US postal bit), prior to the actual question which was as I stated above, I will re-listen to the question and let you know the exact wording.

 

[xcleigh]

It was actually more along the lines of asking him to address those people who had made the comparisons - that Wiggins and Sky themselves had been practically begging for - to US Postal, but not the comparisons that were wanted.

Here is the audio:
http://sporten.tv2.dk/tour/2012-07-09-lydfil-her-sviner-wiggins-sine-kritikere
So a statement on the comparisons between sky and US postal and then a question about insinuations on the twitter-sphere that the tour can only be won doped up.

oh and sports people don't ever get angry/upset/sweary!?? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KsfFS16Ae0

 

[sniper]

I'm more inclined to believe 2009 was his experimental year and 2010 he was strangled by new team management, his performances, all of Sky's performances, reflecting this.

2011 he was back on the wagon. Ooh look, Dr Leinders is here. Well I never.

Regardless of these theories, having the blood passport values, with dates, from 2009 - 2012 should surely paint a telling picture of cleanliness or dirtiness.

People are so quick to jump on the "you're not an expert" or "you're a hater" bandwagon, but here's the bottom line: 5 years of blood profile data cannot be anything but complete and irrefutable proof either way. It's too much data tied to too many training camps and race results to be anything but indicative of clean or doped riding.

this i think is hitting nail on head.
data over a five year period would average out any isolated measurement errors and would give a compelling overall image.
but we're not going to get it, for obvious reasons.

 

[Corona]

I don't think there is any doubt Wiggo was clean in 2007.

Call me naive but I also think Brailsford was initially genuine with his marginal gains and winning the tour clean. I think he managed to do that with the track team due to the extraordinary funding and facilities in Manchester in a sport that wasn't taken that seriously by too many countries. I suspect he arrogantly thought he could do the same in the world of road racing but got a rude awakening.

Once he signed Wiggins after his excellent showing in the 09 tour they both had a problem as 2010 showed. If 'Mr Clean JV' can get that kind of performance out of Wiggo but DB can't it tarnishes his reputation somewhat. Or, does he throw one of BC's shining lights under a bus and suggest all may not have been as it seemed in 09?

There was the well documented meeting between them at the end of the 2010 debacle. I wonder if it was then that Bradley said 'wake up and smell the coffee Dave, if you want to win the tour then this is how it's gotta be...'