MarkvW said:
I don't understand this at all. Buy into this reasoning, and everybody MUST be doping. If you're too consistent, then you must be doping. If you fluctuate, then you must be doping. The only wiggle room in your rationale is the "huge difference" between performances in any one year. That doesn't mean anything to me because a non doper's performances would be expected to fluctuate wildly.
Race-day performance boosters will get the racer caught (won't they?). Blood doping (including microdosing EPO) is an exception, but it is only useful for maintenance of hematocrit, because the doper will get caught if the spike is too big. All the other techniques focus on long term improvement. The doper is the ultra-consistent robotic machine. Am I missing something?
This dope-fueled consistency is what makes the Tour so boring lately. Everything is calculated and measured. Yawn.
There is a big gap between super consistency and fluctuating performance that is occupied by most of the peloton.
Its not that Cancellara is inconsistent. That would be if he didnt do anything in the Tour of Quatar. Its that he was extremely poor. He got dropped in the ttt. Its more so the case with Schleck. Hes a climber who crushed everyone but Contador on the Tourmalet. Put minutes at will into the best climbers out there. And he gets dropped by sprinters in the TOC. Loses 9 minutes on the first road bump in the Vuelta. These are huge differences between their peaks and off days. Perhaps not as much with Cancellara.
Im not the one who says that being consistent is sign of doping. But the people that do wont point to someone performing well at minor events like TOC, TOT before a gt. Thell point to someone like COntador winning Castille y Leon, Algarve, Paris Nice, top 10 ing ardennes classics, winning 2 stages in Dauphine including alpe, then winning tour. That is top level performance for a big period of time. I can see why people might see that as suspicious.
But this all is of minor importance anyway because those arent the reasons why i think either Cancellara or Schleck dopes. Like i said, they are just points to consider.
The reason why i think all the top guys dope, is because we have seen time and time again people that they beat, get caught for doping.
Di Luca was a doper. Schleck at the age of 21 matched him in the mountains in the Giro. FInished close behind a doped Piepoli on the ZOnc.
Ricco was a doper. Contador beat him in the Giro.
Mosquera is a doper Nibali beat him in the Vuelta.
Doping isnt something that gives you a 0.5 % edge, something that would help an otherwise decent Ricco, contend in the Giro. SOmething that you take to then lose to clean riders. Doping gives you HUGE advantages.
I can accept the peloton is clean if no one gets caught. THen theres nothing for me to speculate that they are all doping. But the moment, RIcco tests positive, Mosquera tests positive, Di Luca tests positive, the whole graph is shifted. I and others find it difficult to believe that clean Schlecks, Nibalis, Contadors are so superhuman that they can contend with and BEAT guys who are getting a 15% + advantage from PEDs.
I also take into account what people like Frei said, regarding how easy it is to cheat the tests, and what people like Kohl said, regarding it being impossible to contend without drugs.