Re:
manolo57 said:
His true level at ITT is about Nibali's one. If he had done the same TT than Nibali, I wouldn't say anything, but here he failed.
Last year he won 3 TTs, whose one in WT and the NC, about 1 min above every others riders. This year he made two good TTs in Ruta del Sol and Tirreno. Yesterday, for the first time since 2014, he finished a TT without being in the top 20.
So I think it's quite evident he didn't perform at his best, I don't know what the reason is, maybe he lost a bit of level in the TTs to be better in the mountains... But it's pretty sure he is able to do better.
Think about this for perspective then.
I went through the first time trial and looked at times. Then went back to the 2014 Tour for confirmation.
He has NEVER time trialed at the same level of Nibali in a grand tour. Nibali is always reasonably ahead of him. Nibali can top 10 in a time trial whilst riding GT, in both the first and second time trials. When has Pinot done this?
Ignoring riders like Wiggins, Froome and now Dumoulin, that's a HUGE trump card. You can beat others in the climbs and get anywhere up to a minute, perhaps a bit more, on them in the time trial.
Pinot has always been, roughly around the other GC riders. That's perfectly fine. It's very good. It's not outstanding though.
So after his stage win, I had a bit of a historical comparison.
My thinking, was that should Nibali have been where Nairo was on GC relative to Tom Dumoulin, THEN we'd have had a very close GC race on our hands, barring Dumoulin not making a mistake or mechanical.
Tom, actually was really good, but believable. He looked fatigued and relative to others had dropped from the first ride. Nairo improved BTW. By a lot. His gap to Nibali was on par with the distance and gap they had in the first time trial. The difference is, had Nairo finished with Nibali's time into Milan, he'd have lost the Maglia Rosa for a second.
So my assumptions, based on the first time trial and historical norms they all exhibit were fairly accurate. The issue was how much fatigue Tom Dumoulin took in. He showed he does drop...that's a good thing! Makes his performance look more credible IMO.
But Pinot...this thread dozens of pages and years back started claiming Pinot had improved as a time trialist.
When? A stage race last year where he finished second overall? That's great. Porte's won time trials in stage races and won the outright convincingly. Yet in grand tour's I am not claiming he will put in a killer time trial and deliver. Why? Because I've never seen him actually do it.
Even better...time checks at the tour last year showed he was third, on par with Froome. By the end, he'd dropped over 90 seconds! He was right near Quintana. That's historic comparison. You compare riders at the same relative fatigue levels in specific races that show that accumulated level of fatigue.
Yes Pinot has some good chrono's in shorter races. So does Nairo. But at the end of a GT, he's around all the other GT boys. He did what I expected him to. 9 seconds faster first time trial and 4 seconds slower second time trial to Nairo...which leaves both riders as good against the clock, but they need to be a bit better, around Nibali's level, if not higher to really be dangerous and truly complementary to their climbing pedigree and attacking nature.
That type of racing would have really scared Dumoulin...and he was scared. You could see it in his reactions. He did over power them all though...eventually. And it made a great race.
And no...I don't think Nairo or Pinot will just up and improve their time trialing like that. Porte is a different kettle of fish. He use to be a really good time trialist and he weighs the same as Quintana or a few kg more. WATCH him this Tour and see if he really has regained his old capacity...because if he has, he could foresee to win the Tour.
NOTE: Surely I am not the ONLY person who thought before the Milan stage that if Nibali had the time gap to Dumoulin that Quintana possessed and was wearing the maglis rosa, that he'd have been able to possibly hold onto it? His time on the stage shows he would have been VERY close. He was 54 seconds slower than Tom who started 53 seconds behind Quintana.
My bad...this forum had folk claiming Nibali AND Quintana were going to lose their podium places. Irrational emotion versus common sense is prevailing around here. That's normal though!
Pinot FWIW did not fail. Not at all. He performed admirably. You've under talked his capacity whilst Tonton, who is a nice fellow and a big fan of Pinot, has slightly over talked his accolades. The truth is found in the middle. That French man and his team have a lot to cheer for. A stage win and 4th is a huge achievement. For crying out loud, the Criterium International PLUS French national champion doesn't mean he can time trial at the end of 3 weeks in a grand tour.
Michael Rogers was a 3x WORLD CHAMPION before the BioPassport. He never won a time trial in a grand tour or performed to an excetpional level. This is like the Aussies (I am Australia BTW) who big note Aussie time trialers. Yes many are good...but keep it in perspective. Pinot is not Sylvain Chavanel. The comparison with Porte is apt. Until EITHER actually gets the first and second time splits warranting a top end GT time trial, it's all just talk dude.
Wait and see them do it. Don't expect it to just magically appear. That's fanboy hype. The CI is 3 stages bro. 3 stages. Keep it real please!
I threw this in for comparison: 2016 Tour de Romandie. ITT he was 2 seconds faster than Dumoulin, and 9 ahead of BOTH Froome and Quintana.
Good performance but note, his form took a major nose dive after this race. That's still, not beating Froome or Dumoulin at the Tour in the ITT. It's also only 15km...
Again, perspective please. You can't compare apples and oranges. The stages and parours are exactly that. Look at the riders in the specific races with their accumulated race loads and relative fatigue to each other in THAT race. Pinot has never actually under perfomed in a single time trial during a GT!
People have simply mistaken one or two shorter performances in races where his GT rivals were not in stellar huge form and assumed, he's near them here, thus he will be in the Tour. Based on the 2016 Romandie ITT we could all expect Nairo Quintana to time trial like Chris Froome come the Tour, can we not?
Not a chance. Such assumption is ignorant and fanboy behaviour. Not one Quintana fan did so. So why are Pinot's fans demanding so much?
It's called being delusional.
He's ridden really darn well. Heck, if people treated it this way, they'd avoid getting upset when he doesn't perform!!