Time Landa Will Lose To Nibali In The FIrst Two ITTs

[Netserk]

Vote!

Edit: Eshnar's brilliant stage analysis of the two stages in question:

STAGE 1: Apeldoorn – Apeldoorn 9.8 km ITT

Stage start: 13.45 CET, 6 May

Technical Overview:
The 99th Giro opens with an individual prologue (it is not formally a prologue though, being over 8 km) just under 10 km long. It is completely flat and it features a few long straights, where the specialists will be able to exploit their power. The only slightly technical part is in the middle, between 6 and 3 km to go. The final 2 km feature two pretty serious bends that are virtually the only chance for riders to **** up.

What to expect:
It's a prologue for pure specialists. Gaps could be significant between them and pure climbers. The winner will make it under 11'.

STAGE 9: Radda in Chianti – Greve in Chianti 40.5 km ITT

Stage start: 12.35 CET, 15 May

Technical Overview:
The Giro continues its trend of wine-themed time trials with a twisty, rolling ITT set in the Chianti area. With its moderate length and complicated terrain, this TT will help the climbers limit their losses with respect to the specialists. The biggest hamper to the specialists will be the almost complete absence of straights: the course is filled with bends and hairpins, making it look strikingly similar to the first sector of the Saltara 2013 ITT. The terrain is not as hard as it looks however, as the profile has been “doped”, to make it look hillier than it really is, by stretching the altitude axis. Over the whole course there are only a few ramps that go beyond 5%. For example, the final hill measures 4.9 km at an average of 3.6%, with the first 3.5 km at an average of 4.5%... it is quite easy really.. Furthermore, the final ramp of the same hill, the one that ends in Panzano in Chianti, does not exist. I have no clue how they managed, but they messed it up, just look at the altitudes: a gain of 11m over 1.3 km... less than 1%. And before you ask, yes, the altitudes are correct, it is the profile that is wrong. Apart from this geeky remark, the final descent is very gentle but technical just as all the stage is.

What to expect:
The specialists to do their thing, and the best bike handlers between the GC guys to do extraordinarily well (I'm thinking about Nibali and Valverde). Gaps will not be too big, though. The winner will make it in around 45'.

 

[Guybrush]

No time, Nibali will not perform at this giro at all

 

[rune1107]

I don't know why, but I have this feeling that Nibali will pull a TDF 2014 and go from being s**t to just destroy the competition,. 3min in TT for me..

 

[saganftw]

he will gain time and be the best climber and the best TTist in the giro

 

[May0maniac]

25-30 seconds in the first one.
The 2nd one is easier than I thought but technical, hard to say, I assume that Landa worked a lot on his TT-skills, so maybe 1'30'', but that's just m guessing.
Nibali is always able to ride a good prologue or a good technical ITT, even when he's not in top shape.

 

[dacooley]

Re:

he will gain time and be the best climber and the best TTist in the giro

easily

 

[Red Rick]

Less than he can gain on Nibali on one mountain stage if Nibali doesn't get his *** together in time

 

[Taxus4a]

I think best Nibali can put on Landa about 3 and 4 minutes in the 2 first ITT.

Landa can lose about 50 seconds (with Nibali, with dumoulin more) in the first one, and about 2:30 in the second although is quite hilly. He has improve in ITT, this year Landa for instance is the first year he has an ITT bike at his home, with Astana and obviously with Euskaltel he hadnt.

With that Landa has a good option to win the Giro, it is more important luck with crashes and heath than 3 or 4 minutes.

I think Nibali will be at his best level and it will be difficult to drop, more than Contador but if someone can do it in this Giro is Landa.

 

[vedrafjord]

It'll be very interesting what happens, as it'll show how much TT prowess can be 'learned' - Landa will have spent the last year knowing his GT chances depend on improving his TT.

 

[Taxus4a]

Landa has improve his ITT skill and he is going to improve more, and he will be motivated,...but the same Landa has a big taloent to climb and to get a good hape, he has so far big problems in the ITT.

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=23882

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=26044

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=22293


Acording reference form other years, he shoul lose more than 1 minute with Nibali in the first one and more than 4 minutes in the second, so about 5-6 minutes. Now he is no so young and he has improved especially his ITt skill, but some people here is too much optimistic IMO. But all depends Nibali level, obviously, I mean Nibali close to the best in both ITT. Other way obviously Landa will lose less.

 

[jens_attacks]

Lol taxus 6 minutes.

2:23 is my prediction.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Lol taxus 6 minutes.

2:23 is my prediction.

Seems reasonable, that should be enough to force him to attack on stage 14.
Nibali and Valverde should be pretty aggressive on the hilly, medium mountain stages to gain some time and bonus seconds, Valverde will probably try to gain as much time as possible before the high mountains.

 

[Singer01]

he lost just over 4 mins in last years much longer, flatter TT. Nibali is no Kiryienka in a TT, and Landa will clearly have been working on his TT skills since then, and he is a year older and stronger.

 

[PremierAndrew]

10km flat TT - he'll probably lose about 45 seconds.

25km of flat/descending before becoming a hilly TT - probably 100 seconds loss

Given that Landa has worked a lot on his TTing, I'm expecting him to lose in the region of 2:25 across both TTs

 

[staubsauger]

Right now I'm worried whether Nibali will even make it to the tt.

Landa might lose about 1 1/2 minutes to Fuglsang & Valverde plus/minus 1/2 minute. Zaka might be the joker to pull out a Berzin tt which puts him in big favor on the gc.

As soon as Nibali hits shape I guess we're talking about 2 - 2 1/2 minutes. Again plus/minus 1/2 minutes.

Edith says that's for the long tt. The prologue should be about 20-50 seconds!? Mayo used to ride pretty fine prologues in his prime. Landa might even win 1-2 seconds there surprisingly!

The mtt. He's the favorite. He has the ability to jump up a regular col in the drops like Pantani used to.

 

[blackmamba]

People who think Landa will loose 45-50 sec in the 9km TT is gonne get surprised. Hell loose at top 30 sec and thats the max.

 

[Brullnux]

Nibali's TT is usually the only consistent part of his performance even when he is crap. I mean, look at Tirreno in 2015: he finished ahead of Contador in one of them and Quintana too. At the Tour last year he was the best out of the favourites (except Quintana who was in better conditions) IIRC, so I expect even if he's crap for him to gain time. Also Landa was pretty decent at Trentino - except on the TTT, where he was the weakest guy. I expect over a minute if he's bad, 2:30-3 if he's good and over 3:30 if the starts align.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

he lost just over 4 mins in last years much longer, flatter TT. Nibali is no Kiryienka in a TT, and Landa will clearly have been working on his TT skills since then, and he is a year older and stronger.

I think you didnt see the first link I put.. he lost a lot in a short hilly ITT

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Right now I'm worried whether Nibali will even make it to the tt.

Landa might lose about 1 1/2 minutes to Fuglsang & Valverde plus/minus 1/2 minute. Zaka might be the joker to pull out a Berzin tt which puts him in big favor on the gc.

As soon as Nibali hits shape I guess we're talking about 2 - 2 1/2 minutes. Again plus/minus 1/2 minutes.

Edith says that's for the long tt. The prologue should be about 20-50 seconds!? Mayo used to ride pretty fine prologues in his prime. Landa might even win 1-2 seconds there surprisingly!

The mtt. He's the favorite. He has the ability to jump up a regular col in the drops like Pantani used to.

In an interview with La Gazzetta Landa said that he's mostly worried about the opening ITT. Why? Because it's totally flat.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

Lol taxus 6 minutes.

2:23 is my prediction.

I didnt say that, man... Read my 2 post again. I voted 3-3-30 with the 2 ITT. But always if Nibali is the reference becouse he is in a big shape.

Landa lost 6:40 with Uran just 2 years ago in this ITT:

That landa was able to climb at a similar level than now and he did several times before: Neila, Bondone, San Sebastian , Indurain,...

Now Landa is a better rider year by year and now he has worked more especifically in the ITT, but to past from 6:40 to 1:30 as some people said in one ITT like that is too much optimistic.

He did well the last 2 ITT of basque country, but thet were really hilly...and last year ITT is a good reference...but he lost 4 minutes, and he had Contador as reference. He can improve, but not miracles.

Could he put more than minutes to everybody in the mountains... I said yes, it is posiblel, depends the circunstances is possible, But he is not good in the ITT, although he is quite obsesed to improve his ITT skills.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

Right now I'm worried whether Nibali will even make it to the tt.

Landa might lose about 1 1/2 minutes to Fuglsang & Valverde plus/minus 1/2 minute. Zaka might be the joker to pull out a Berzin tt which puts him in big favor on the gc.

As soon as Nibali hits shape I guess we're talking about 2 - 2 1/2 minutes. Again plus/minus 1/2 minutes.

Edith says that's for the long tt. The prologue should be about 20-50 seconds!? Mayo used to ride pretty fine prologues in his prime. Landa might even win 1-2 seconds there surprisingly!

The mtt. He's the favorite. He has the ability to jump up a regular col in the drops like Pantani used to.

In an interview with La Gazzetta Landa said that he's mostly worried about the opening ITT. Why? Because it's totally flat.

It is norrmal, a flat 10 Km ITT with corners is where he can lose more time by Km in cycling. about 10 sec by Km with an specialist like Cancellara. I hope now about 7 sec...

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Lol taxus 6 minutes.

2:23 is my prediction.

I didnt say that, man... Read my 2 post again. I voted 3-3-30 with the 2 ITT. But always if Nibali is the reference becouse he is in a big shape.

Landa lost 6:40 with Uran just 2 years ago in this ITT:

That landa was able to climb at a similar level than now and he did several times before: Neila, Bondone, San Sebastian , Indurain,...

Now Landa is a better rider year by year and now he has worked more especifically in the ITT, but to past from 6:40 to 1:30 as some people said in one ITT like that is too much optimistic.

He did well the last 2 ITT of basque country, but thet were really hilly...and last year ITT is a good reference...but he lost 4 minutes, and he had Contador as reference. He can improve, but not miracles.

Could he put more than minutes to everybody in the mountains... I said yes, it is posiblel, depends the circunstances is possible, But he is not good in the ITT, although he is quite obsesed to improve his ITT skills.

This TT was really hard, bur it's worth mentioning that that time by Uran was insane. Also this one is more technical; probably making it harder for Landa to lose as much time as the open flat roads and the open, grinding hills of the 2014 one.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

Lol taxus 6 minutes.

2:23 is my prediction.

I didnt say that, man... Read my 2 post again. I voted 3-3-30 with the 2 ITT. But always if Nibali is the reference becouse he is in a big shape.

Landa lost 6:40 with Uran just 2 years ago in this ITT:

That landa was able to climb at a similar level than now and he did several times before: Neila, Bondone, San Sebastian , Indurain,...

Now Landa is a better rider year by year and now he has worked more especifically in the ITT, but to past from 6:40 to 1:30 as some people said in one ITT like that is too much optimistic.

He did well the last 2 ITT of basque country, but thet were really hilly...and last year ITT is a good reference...but he lost 4 minutes, and he had Contador as reference. He can improve, but not miracles.

Could he put more than minutes to everybody in the mountains... I said yes, it is posiblel, depends the circunstances is possible, But he is not good in the ITT, although he is quite obsesed to improve his ITT skills.

This TT was really hard, bur it's worth mentioning that that time by Uran was insane. Also this one is more technical; probably making it harder for Landa to lose as much time as the open flat roads and the open, grinding hills of the 2014 one.

Obviously, but the tread is about how less time.

But

He is no so technical. That is not the question, the question is that he i improving his ITT skills... but some people accept as normal he lose in the second ITT less than 2 minutes with Nibali.

I dont think is impossiblee, I am not following closely Landa trainings and I dont know how he will fell in the Giro or how good day he can have that day, but if he lose less than 2 minutes in the second ITT despite is quite technical and with a few flat, it woudl be a big surprise.

By the way, he was at his home till today, today he went to the Giro. He has no plans to change his home, as others with Andorra, Swiss or thingss like that. The weather is bad, but he take the car and go to Castellon to train if necessary.

 

[Gigs_98]

I don't know how much time it will be, but I just hope for a lot. Then he should better attack in the mountains

 

[Red Rick]

1.30-2.30 is the most realistic. Unrealistically, I'm hoping for 8 minutes+