Tirreno-Adriatico Stage 6: Ussita - Macerata - 178km. Last Chance

[royalpig180]

My money's on Cunego for the win. He and Scarponi have been so close to each other all week, I imagine that for once he'll be the one given the chance to go for the win, and the finish appears to suit him. Evans could also be up there, as this finish appears to be too hard for the Gilbert type.

 

[Sasquatch]

Liquigas to set a blistering pace leading up to and the first stages of the climb.

 

[taiwan]

You seriously believe Cuddles has more punch than Bertie? Or even A. Schleck?(when he peaks, which isn't a lot)

Was he really that explosive at FW? Just paced him self well on the climb and made his move on the right time. Igor Anton went from way too far, although he did hang on for quite a long time(relatively speaking)

Sums up what attacking is to a great extent. He had the measure of Rodriguez and Contador that time. The Ardennes classics can be won by riders such as Gilbert who are nowhere in the high mountains. Contador has the ability to launch an unanswerable attack from an elite selection of climbers, but he still has something to prove in races where heavier more powerful riders are still present. In terms of finishing I'm rating Evans above Contador and Andy Schleck. He's a bit more of an all rounder, IMO.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Punchness is more to do with a shorter climb. Acceleration is seen as more on longer climbs. Don't take everything to offence El Clenbuterlero. It's alright!

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

So ACF... I'd like to see it, but do you think Cadel can hold off the field ftw??? I like his chances with Tuesday's ITT.

 

[auscyclefan94]

So ACF... I'd like to see it, but do you think Cadel can hold off the field ftw??? I like his chances with Tuesday's ITT.

for the stage win? Maybe. Though he didn't look to good (better than basso or gilbert) near the finish yesterday on the climb. That is probably to do with not having much racing in the legs. He has a good chance and he peformed well in Macerata last year.

Oddly on paddy power betting odds, they have basso favourite for the stage win.

 

[Ferminal]

Is the finish harder or easier than last year?

EDIT: Thanks, Hitch. It's hard to talk logic with someone who isn't logical.

Harder, probably 1.5x as hard.

The most climbing of any of the finishes so far. There shouldn't be any groups coming in... just a shattered field all the way down.

 

[movingtarget]

Evan's can afford to drop a few seconds. Even if the Italians finish ahead of him, it won't be much of a time gap but it's always an advantage to start last in the time trial so I think Evans will try his best to hold his narrow lead. With the time bonuses he has the job ahead of him. I think Cunego will be hard to hold out but won't win the overall. I think Evans will be within a few seconds at the end of today's stage and win the overall. Cancellara, Thomas Lov and Pinotti will be Evan's toughest adversaries in the time trial. Cancellara should win even though he seems to prefer the longer TT's. Lars Boom a chance ?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Last year's macerata finish.

 

[benpounder]

The Last chance before the tt for the climbers to get some time.

But it does look like a good stage.

Looks like training for Milan-San Remo and the rest of the classics... I suspect to see Cunego test himself.

 

[Ryaguas]

BMC will have to save Greg possibly closer to the finish and/or try to find some allies as I imagine Lampre will send Scarponi up the road early on the final climb and let cadel then chase him down and then maybe Cunego can counter.

Well I think that this time Cunego will be first... in Chieti was Michele's turn now is Damiano's also the finish suits him very well...

Fleche Wallone? TBH he's one of the GC riders who fares better in the Ardennes and the minor Italian races. I'll give you Gilbert, Cunego and Di Luca, but in terms of GC riders he has more punch than many (Bert, A. Schleck, Menchov, Basso...).

Wow... wow... easy mate... Saying that Cuddles has more Punch than Alberto is a very big thing...

Contador has the ability to launch an unanswerable attack from an elite selection of climbers

Well lets see if this year Alberto goes to AGR and FW or FW and LBL... Last year He was outstanding in FW and awesome in LBL defending Vino very well... Lets see if this year He wants to take a shot in AGR...

He has a good chance and he peformed well in Macerata last year.

As you said it "He had more Kms last year" now He is lacking that... but Cuddles is going good with his big engine He should and can hang there...

Well I guess that everybody knows that I'm going with Il Principe
I'll pick Il Killer as second choice... I dont want to jinx him! He is riding great...
mmmmm the diesels will be there but will lose some secs against Damiano and Di Luca in the finish...
My Top 5:
Il Principe
Il Killer
Cuddles
Michele
Basso

 

[luckyboy]

Anyone think Basso will be able to get the bonus and enough time over Evans to take the overall? Whatever Cunego does I can't see him getting the 40+ secs he'll need unless Evans totally falls apart.

 

[The Hitch]

Anyone think Basso will be able to get bonus points and enough time over Evans to take the overall? Whatever Cunego does I can't see him getting the 40+ secs he'll need unless Evans totally falls apart.

Hell need more than that unfortunately.

Amsterdam (ITT) 8.4km
3 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:00:02
144 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre-Farnese Vini 0:00:52

This ones a bit longer than that, though Cuddles might not be on such good form.

 

[Ferminal]

Garzelli
Scarponi +22s
Basso +24s
Di Luca +30s
Evans +36s
Cunego +36s

 

[luckyboy]

Yeah it's not gonna happen for Cunego is it?

Looking back, Basso was 20~secs behind him in the prologues last year. Can't see him getting that time either tbh.

 

[movingtarget]

Once again an Italian race trumps what is happening in France although the weather did not help in the Paris-Nice. The route also needs a makeover. Some pretty anaemic stages. Martin never looked in trouble once he had the lead while the Tirreno won't be decided until the last day. There is no doubt that the two breakaway riders butchered their chances yesterday. Gilbert only needs half a chance and he will take it. Two days of the Tirreno has been more interesting than the whole Paris-Nice. More entertainment to come.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Harder, probably 1.5x as hard.

The most climbing of any of the finishes so far. There shouldn't be any groups coming in... just a shattered field all the way down.

Fair assesment.

A quick comparison.

2010
1.5km @ 9.4% Max 16%
4x through Macerata (incl. finish)


2011
2km @ 9.7% Max: 18%
3x through Macerata (incl. finish) but has 9.5km climb proceeding the macerata circuit.

BMC should really let a breakaway go up the road which is insignificant. Ride a false tempo until Lampre is forced to chase. This applies for Liquigas as well. BMC will then have some numbers saved for the latter part of the race.

btw, Cadel looked a little emotional when taking the lead or does he just have blood shot eyes?

 

[Benotti69]

btw, Cadel looked a little emotional when taking the lead or does he just have blood shot eyes?

dirt from the wet roads????

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Today you could see the difference between a classics specialist and a climber/tter.

Cadel just doesn't have that kick, that final sprint, that explosiveness.

Di Luca, Cunego and Gilbert have all those things.

Cuddles just isn't the type to drop other cyclists by making an explosive acceleration. Let's be honest, Cuddles will never win LBL. He can finish in the front group for sure, but he's still going to get out sprint by someone more explosive.

As for the winner on this stage, my money is on Di Luca or Cunego. I hope the latter.

you're wrong. I agree he wont attack today, but rather follow, but he could win LBL, and his explosiveness is underrated. On a short steep uphill finish he knows what he is doing.

 

[auscyclefan94]

you're wrong. I agree he wont attack today, but rather follow, but he could win LBL, and his explosiveness is underrated. On a short steep uphill finish he knows what he is doing.

and gesink is an awesome time trialler

 

[Ferminal]

2011
2km @ 9.7% Max: 18%
3x through Macerata (incl. finish) but has 9.5km climb proceeding the macerata circuit.

Who is this new avatar person?!

They do the climb 4 times, the first time isn't counted as a GPM or Sprint so doesn't show up in bold on the main profile.

I like to think this climb is a lot harder because of the "double ramp", it goes:

300m @ 8.6%
500m @ 12.6% (First 300m 8-10% then the final 200m up around the max of 18%)
500m @ 5.6% (Nice easy section...)
500m @ 11.8% (400m in the middle of this is @12.5%, Max 18%)
240m @ 0% (Flat section before they turn for the line - I think that's right, a the profile is a bit confusing though)
260m @ 6.1% (Final kick up to the line)

So if you're struggling on the first 18% section, you're going get distanced badly on the second. If you are brave enough to attack on the first ramp you want to be sure you can go again and hold off the challengers on the second one. Pacing your effort will be everything, Evans should draw upon his years of failure and success in FW. It's why I think Basso might go well, it's hard enough that his consistent effort might be stronger than the attackers.

 

[Connor Pass]

So if you're struggling on the first 18% section, you're going get distanced badly on the second. If you are brave enough to attack on the first ramp you want to be sure you can go again and hold off the challengers on the second one. Pacing your effort will be everything, Evans should draw upon his years of failure and success in FW. It's why I think Basso might go well, it's hard enough that his consistent effort might be stronger than the attackers.

Yeah I like Basso for this stage - Scarponi was getting caught when he won 2 days ago and he won't be let go as readily today.

I think there is a chance that a breakaway may hold on too - they really should have done yesterday - depends how strong the chase is behind.

 

[boomcie]

Yeah I like Basso for this stage - Scarponi was getting caught when he won 2 days ago and he won't be let go as readily today.

I think there is a chance that a breakaway may hold on too - they really should have done yesterday - depends how strong the chase is behind.

I really don't think anyone let Scarponi "go" on stage 4. He was one of the favorites and he just ruled the field IMO. He kept a small lead over the entire climb, which looked damn hard.

Lampre has a really good hand, let's see how they play their cards today.

 

[Lanark]

I really don't think anyone let Scarponi "go" on stage 4. He was one of the favorites and he just ruled the field IMO. He kept a small lead over the entire climb, which looked damn hard.

Lampre has a really good hand, let's see how they play their cards today.

Yeah, Scarponi attacked early on a steep climb, which is usually a death sentence, but he was able to hold off attacks by Gilbert, Di Luca and Evans. The first two blew up trying to catch Scarponi. Definitely a very strong performance by Scarponi.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Oss DNS. Not the best start for Liquigas.