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Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

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May 13, 2015
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Now they'll have to attack him in every stage possible since he will 100% be in red after the TT.

It's not just stage 20. But also stage 18 and 19.
 
But what are they going to do there?
The Riaza stage: climb is 7% at it's steepest.. too easy
Avila stage? climb is 5% at it's steepest, and the short ramp to Avila is perfect for Dumoulin. Hell, he could even gain time there.
Cercedilla stage. Sure, it's their best chance. But again the final climb looks to be too easy and there's a flat plateau at the top and a downhill. Suits Dumoulin just fine. He can just TT up there and do it all alone
 
Aug 31, 2012
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One bookie has Aru the favourite, another Dumoulin. Exciting.

He seemed very composed in the post stage interview today. It doesn't seem like his recovery is any worse than Aru's.
 
Potentially the most surprising GT winner in many years. In fact it's hard to think of anyone with less in the way of a record as a climber winning one since Mauri. And Mauri won during what Sean Kelly would firmly describe as "a different era of the sport".

It would be particularly hilarious given the endless parade of next big thing Dutch GC men who never quite made it in recent years.
 
Aug 31, 2012
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Horner was more surprising as recently as 2013. Froome would have been, had he won, and Froome was an even less notable climber than Tom before that faithful few weeks in Spain, 2011
 
Yeah, Froome was way more surprising. In fact Froome still is the most surprising GT winner ever and most surprising evolution ever.

Dumoulin at least had a 5th and a 3rd place in the tour de suisse. Froome had.. wel what? a 30th place on Alpe once
 
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SeriousSam said:
Horner was more surprising as recently as 2013. Froome would have been, had he won, and Froome was an even less notable climber than Tom before that faithful few weeks in Spain, 2011
Horner had vastly more of a record as a climber. Froome would have been a bigger surprise, even a much bigger surprise, had he won his breakthrough Vuelta, but he did not. By the time he won a GT he went in as a favourite. Cobo was also quite random, but again had a real record as a climber (if a flakey unreliable one).

Velits actually winning the year he made the podium would have been like Tom winning this year, although that sounds retrospectively harder on Dumoulin than is intended, given Velits anonymity in the years since. But Velits then was a promising young TT specialist who had a similar lack of a real record as a climber.
 
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SeriousSam said:
Horner was more surprising as recently as 2013. Froome would have been, had he won, and Froome was an even less notable climber than Tom before that faithful few weeks in Spain, 2011
Horner wasn't as surprising as Tom IMO. He came 6th at Tirreno against the second strongest field of that year (after the Tour) so showed some good climbing skills there, he finished 5th ahead of Contador on the MTF, 8 seconds ahead of Nibali in Chieti and 6 seconds ahead of Froome on the epic Marche stage. Tom Dumoulin this year has come 10th against a pretty poor field in Suisse, while having an incredible ITT which saved him 3rd, and a load of seconds taken from others' poor positioning.
 
Looked at a few TT results from previous GT's, and I don't think Purito can hang on to it in a flat TT. Best comparison I think was the flat TT of the TdF in 2013, and he lost 3'30" there to TM, a little less than he lost to Froome. That TT was also a little bit shorter. Dumoulin lost 1'45" in that TT and he's a better rider now, so I think Dumoulin has the edge over Purito.

For Aru, I think the best comparison would be the long tt in the Giro this year, where he lost 2'47" to Contador in 59km, which over 39km would be slightly less than the required 1'50" for Dumoulin to win. However, that TT was significantly hillier towards the end, allowing to Aru to limit his losses somewhat, and I think that Dumoulin is a better flat tt'er than Contador.

Couple of things

Dumoulin has had little training on his tt bike before the Vuelta.
Dumoulin has never rode a TT in the third week of the Tour after riding for GC for three weeks.

I personally think that they're all tired, but I think Dumoulin is higher up in his form curve (climbing with the best on such a stage) and fresher than Aru and Purito, not having ridden the Giro and only 3 day's of the Tour.

Maybe someone else can find some H2H tt results between Aru and Purito.
 
He's young (still under 25) and now he's showing his GT potential. Over the last two years he's already proved to have big engine. It's not that unusual that very good time trialists become decent climbers (especially if they lose a few kilos). Of course his current position (with realistic chances to win) is surprising but he's not a man out of nowhere. He's young but already showed his talent many times before.
 
Krzysztof_O said:
He's young (still under 25) and now he's showing his GT potential. Over the last two years he's already proved to have big engine. It's not that unusual that very good time trialists become decent climbers (especially if they lose a few kilos). Of course his current position (with realistic chances to win) is surprising but he's not a man out of nowhere. He's young but already showed his talent many times before.
Nobody is surprised that he is talented. That's obvious and was obvious long before this race. However out and out TT specialists who turn into GT winners are very rare. Wiggins is the only other member of the tribe who has done so for a long time. Wiggins had already put in many high level climbing performances before winning his one GT, and even then it was one where the parcours could have been designed by his mother and only after he underwent full body-horror weight loss.

I'm enjoying his performance and think its hilarious to see the climbers fail to put him away. But anyone who says they saw this coming is a liar.
 
The surprise with Horner was that he was capable of holding and improving his climbing form over the three weeks given his age and the fact that he has been inconsistent throughout his career regarding GTs but he was top twenty material on a grand tour with emphasis on mountains. Froome didn't win but came out of the blue, much more so than Dumoulin, beating Canc and his leader in the TT and dropping everybody bar Cobo. So that leaves us with Dumoulin, if he wins I'd say it will be the biggest surprise in recent years.
 
Zinoviev Letter said:
Krzysztof_O said:
He's young (still under 25) and now he's showing his GT potential. Over the last two years he's already proved to have big engine. It's not that unusual that very good time trialists become decent climbers (especially if they lose a few kilos). Of course his current position (with realistic chances to win) is surprising but he's not a man out of nowhere. He's young but already showed his talent many times before.
Nobody is surprised that he is talented. That's obvious and was obvious long before this race. However out and out TT specialists who turn into GT winners are very rare. Wiggins is the only other member of the tribe who has done so for a long time. Wiggins had already put in many high level climbing performances before winning his one GT, and even then it was one where the parcours could have been designed by his mother and only after he underwent full body-horror weight loss.

I'm enjoying his performance and think its hilarious to see the climbers fail to put him away. But anyone who says they saw this coming is a liar.
I agree that it's rare for time trialists to win GT but maybe such transformation at his young age is easier? Remember it's still time of his physical development. Maybe his 3rd overall at TdS was an indication?
 
Hes gonna have 2 beautiful targets to storm into. Weve worried about recovery and him destroying himself on the climbs before the TT, but so far he doesnt seem to be fading one bit. I think hes gonna completely annihalite everybody in 2 days and seal the deal.
 
other Dutchmen have been to the Vuelta but nobody was touted as a possible winner. This guy is seriously good GT material that all the climbers are wanting to drop him. Even without a team he is making them sweat
Compared to Barguil, he is doing much better
 
May 13, 2015
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classicomano said:
This couldnt be more perfect though.

CHAVES RUBIO, Esteban Orica GreenEdge 16:39
NIEVE, Mikel Team SKY 16:41
DUMOULIN, Tom Team Giant - Alpecin 16:43
He is going to catch both.
 
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IndianCyclist said:
other Dutchmen have been to the Vuelta but nobody was touted as a possible winner. This guy is seriously good GT material that all the climbers are wanting to drop him. Even without a team he is making them sweat
Compared to Barguil, he is doing much better
It's bizar. We had Gesink - 2nd for a large part of Vuelta 2009, finally dropped out of podium because of a gaping knee wound.. But he was expected and a big talent on the climbs.
Then Mollema in 2011, who was leading the race for a day and in podium contention for a long while vs Cobo, Froome and Wiggins. Also expected for a large part as Tour l'Avenir winner and gc prospect..

And now Dumoulin.. nobody expected him at all, not even deluded chauvinists as myself. I thought maybe a timetrial victory and a good showing in an intermediate hilly/mountain stage. But now he's less than 2 minutes down after so many hill and mountain stages. And now actually one of the biggest favorites to win the whole damn thing.
It's absurd how inpredictable cycling is.

As for his time trial chances. Well, the first time they even put him on a TT bike he immediately won. Now he is not only an expert, but also more motivated to do well than ever probably. And he didn't looked dead after today..
But I think Aru is going to be the biggest nut to crack. Especially after a rest day
 
Aug 12, 2012
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If anything go wrong Domoulin should win la Vuelta. It will be no wind on Wensday here in burgos, but I thing 2 the enough for him to get the red jersey.

But the Vuelta doesnt finish till the end and theren are stages after the ITT quite demanding, specially thursday stage.
 
Mar 13, 2015
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Big Tom is just savage. He is my new sentimental favourite. He doesn't quit and just plows on. He's a giraffe on two wheels that probably pushes 550 -600 climbing watts and still has enough gas to hang in there to finish near the pure climbers. This is great entertainment!
 

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