Teams & Riders Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

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Wiggins estimates that Thomas will just follow wheels now and Froome will be given license to attack as long as Dumoulin doesn't follow.

It'll be interesting to see how TD plays it now as he needs to gain time.
 
Oliwright said:
Wiggins estimates that Thomas will just follow wheels now and Froome will be given license to attack as long as Dumoulin doesn't follow.

It'll be interesting to see how TD plays it now as he needs to gain time.
He needs on time on Thomas yes, but as Froome states, Dumoulin is a risk averse rider, he won't be doing crazy attacks but calculated risks (like the downhill attack with Kragh). And more hope that Thomas will collapse.

He doesn't need to gain time on Froome at this point as he's only 11s behind. Following would be enough
 
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Rollthedice said:
With Nibali gone, Quintana looking like he'll rather be somewhere else, Dumoulin is the only hope left for humanity. Let us all pray he'll have the legs until the end. He can do it.
Wow, being at froome's ridiculous level in second consecutive grand tour turns out to be perfectly normal, when it comes to saving humanity. :)
 
Still looks to me like Thomas is stronger.

And today was the perfect example why it's good for Sky that they have 2 there. Like now he attacked, those 2 follow. Then they don't ride with him, and counter attack him. It's unbelievable he still has the strength to come back somehow. But at some point this is going wrong and we're looking at Sky riding away in the distance
 
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Still looks to me like Thomas is stronger.

And today was the perfect example why it's good for Sky that they have 2 there. Like now he attacked, those 2 follow. Then they don't ride with him, and counter attack him. It's unbelievable he still has the strength to come back somehow. But at some point this is going wrong and we're looking at Sky riding away in the distance
Like I said in the race thread, the tactical prowess of Dumoulin almost completely negates the numerical Sky advantage. He didn't attack to ride away, but to keep initiative. If he hadn't, Sky would have done a 1-2 attack and beat him.

I've not been a natural fan of Dumoulin in the past but his racing really impresses me.
 
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Still looks to me like Thomas is stronger.

And today was the perfect example why it's good for Sky that they have 2 there. Like now he attacked, those 2 follow. Then they don't ride with him, and counter attack him. It's unbelievable he still has the strength to come back somehow. But at some point this is going wrong and we're looking at Sky riding away in the distance
Thomas is definitely the more consistent so far but Froome is certainly the one based on the past that could do something unexpected. He was yo yo ing a bit today as usual but recovered before the top of the climb. Looks like a four man race for the podium. The others don't seem to have it this year. Roglic has ridden a smart race so far. Could be an amazing TT if the gaps start to shrink. Four good TT riders battling for the podium.
 
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dacooley said:
Rollthedice said:
With Nibali gone, Quintana looking like he'll rather be somewhere else, Dumoulin is the only hope left for humanity. Let us all pray he'll have the legs until the end. He can do it.
Wow, being at froome's ridiculous level in second consecutive grand tour turns out to be perfectly normal, when it comes to saving humanity. :)
Yes. I wasn't implying anything less than a team who absolutely massacres Tour de France since 2012 with one rider and now apparently with another one, that are so dominant any resistance is futile. It's enough.
 
I do not see Tom in such a comfortable position. the first thing rhat he's alone, practically without a team, against two who have instead the strongest team and what's more is the same.
second, let's forget that he has to recover almost 2 mins a to Thomas and if you remember last year at the giro he gave him only 50s. not to mention the fact that now g is physically healthy, does not have giro in the legs and the ITT is at the end of the tour.
paradoxically tom must hope that g breaks or even attacks him

 
 
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Red Rick said:
Dekker_Tifosi said:
Plus he has to have the legs. It's not unforeseeable that Dumoulin himself cracks
True, but speculating about that is no fun is it :eek:

Rollthedice said:
Red Rick said:
At some point I think Dumoulin might have to gamble that Froome wants to drop Thomas too.
Why not vice versa?
How do you mean? Thomas already has the time he needs?
Maybe he wants more time, maybe he wants to win Le Tour, maybe Froome can't follow a Dumoulin attack? As things look now even if he wants, Froome is unable to drop Thomas.
 
The four best TTers from the GC guys are the four best climbers as well. Very strange! What are the pure climbers doing?
The level is very high as well, if we look at the climbing times.
As for Tom, he has a fantastic race and without the stage 6 problem he would be in pole position now. As for the rest of the race how can he win?
In my opinion, Thomas, Froome and Roglic are on a very similar level for the upcoming TT, and Tom can beat all of them by an approximately 30 sec margin. That means that he needs to find 1:20 on Thomas while he can't lose more than 20 sec to Froome and more than 1:20 to Roglic.
We have three stages with downhill finishes left: Carcassone, Bagnéres-de-Luchon and Laruns. Tom is a great descender and he can try another attack in one of these descents but Froome is damn good too and Thomas is not bad either. I don't really think that he can win the race with a big attack downhill. Stage 15 and 16 are not that hard, I don't expect differences between the 4 leaders in those stages. Stage 19 could be a different story, but still not that big of a chance there. So the big chance for Tom is obviously Stage 17 with the Portet mountain top finish. Dumolin showed that he is in excellent form and is one of the best climbers in the peloton. Still, winning the time needed on such a hard stage after 2 and a half weeks of racing with the Giro already in his legs. I would love to be optimistic but I don't really see it happening.

In my opininon the only realistic way for Tom to win the Tour is Thomas cracking big time on stage 17 or 19. in that case all he needs to do is follow Froomey's wheel. Not that that is such an easy thing to do. Anyway, if this won't happen I still hope Tom won't crack and he can finish on the podium. That would be a super great result for him. He would be a big favourite to win next year even if he won't progress further which I very much doubt.

An interesting note: Geschke almost got within the TOP20 with his break today and with some luck he cen be in the TOP20 comes Stage 17 so maybe he can start from the same group as the leaders. Not that I think that has big importance but it wouldn't hurt for sure.
 
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kiszol said:
The four best TTers from the GC guys are the four best climbers as well. Very strange! What are the pure climbers doing?
The level is very high as well, if we look at the climbing times.
As for Tom, he has a fantastic race and without the stage 6 problem he would be in pole position now. As for the rest of the race how can he win?
In my opinion, Thomas, Froome and Roglic are on a very similar level for the upcoming TT, and Tom can beat all of them by an approximately 30 sec margin. That means that he needs to find 1:20 on Thomas while he can't lose more than 20 sec to Froome and more than 1:20 to Roglic.
We have three stages with downhill finishes left: Carcassone, Bagnéres-de-Luchon and Laruns. Tom is a great descender and he can try another attack in one of these descents but Froome is damn good too and Thomas is not bad either. I don't really think that he can win the race with a big attack downhill. Stage 15 and 16 are not that hard, I don't expect differences between the 4 leaders in those stages. Stage 19 could be a different story, but still not that big of a chance there. So the big chance for Tom is obviously Stage 17 with the Portet mountain top finish. Dumolin showed that he is in excellent form and is one of the best climbers in the peloton. Still, winning the time needed on such a hard stage after 2 and a half weeks of racing with the Giro already in his legs. I would love to be optimistic but I don't really see it happening.

In my opininon the only realistic way for Tom to win the Tour is Thomas cracking big time on stage 17 or 19. in that case all he needs to do is follow Froomey's wheel. Not that that is such an easy thing to do. Anyway, if this won't happen I still hope Tom won't crack and he can finish on the podium. That would be a super great result for him. He would be a big favourite to win next year even if he won't progress further which I very much doubt.

An interesting note: Geschke almost got within the TOP20 with his break today and with some luck he cen be in the TOP20 comes Stage 17 so maybe he can start from the same group as the leaders. Not that I think that has big importance but it wouldn't hurt for sure.
If Dumoulin does not crack in the third week, it will be one of the most ridiculous ride of all time. The Giro-Tour double has not been attempted often (lately) because it is so hard and some of the best riders have a failed at it, despite heavy clinic associations. And now Dumoulin is supposed be in the running for a Tour title after finishing second in the giro by outclimbing the likes of Quintana, Bardet and Landa?!
 
Jul 14, 2015
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How on earth is Tom going to pull out 30 seconds in that basically uphill TT. The one in the Giro was longer and flatter and he only got 13 to Froome. Let's face it, his TT at the end of a GT where he focused on GC isn't world-beating, it's just very good.
 
Dumoulin is much better in a hilly/rolling TT than in a flat one. It was the rolling TT of the TDF 2016 where Dumoulin put major difference into the rest. Same with Giro 2017. Same with the World ITT championship.
It's the high speed flat TT's he barely put time into others, or even lose. Giro 2018 is a good example. End Giro 2017 is also a good example. Worlds ITT in Qatar is also a good example.

He almost never wins entirely flat TT's for a reason. He does not like them.
 
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Dumoulin is much better in a hilly/rolling TT than in a flat one. It was the rolling TT of the TDF 2016 where Dumoulin put major difference into the rest. Same with Giro 2017. Same with the World ITT championship.
It's the high speed flat TT's he barely put time into others, or even lose. Giro 2018 is a good example. End Giro 2017 is also a good example. Worlds ITT in Qatar is also a good example.

He almost never wins entirely flat TT's for a reason. He does not like them.
At the same time one could argue that Froome is for some reason better in flat TT's. Look at 2013 for example where he almost beat tony Martin in his prime in a pan flat TT while he almost lost to contador in a very hilly one. Some will say he was still better in the hilly one as he won it but I think the main difference is that there was no specialist in top shape for hilly TT's while there was an absolute flat TT specialist. Unfortunately there is no track record for Dumoulin in hilly TT's at the end of a gt, but I'm convinced he'll be good.
 
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Gigs_98 said:
Dekker_Tifosi said:
Dumoulin is much better in a hilly/rolling TT than in a flat one. It was the rolling TT of the TDF 2016 where Dumoulin put major difference into the rest. Same with Giro 2017. Same with the World ITT championship.
It's the high speed flat TT's he barely put time into others, or even lose. Giro 2018 is a good example. End Giro 2017 is also a good example. Worlds ITT in Qatar is also a good example.

He almost never wins entirely flat TT's for a reason. He does not like them.
At the same time one could argue that Froome is for some reason better in flat TT's. Look at 2013 for example where he almost beat tony Martin in his prime in a pan flat TT while he almost lost to contador in a very hilly one. Some will say he was still better in the hilly one as he won it but I think the main difference is that there was no specialist in top shape for hilly TT's while there was an absolute flat TT specialist. Unfortunately there is no track record for Dumoulin in hilly TT's at the end of a gt, but I'm convinced he'll be good.
Froome beat Dumoulin in 2016 Hilly ITT but was beaten by him in flat ITT that same tour, Froome prefers hilly aswell
 
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Gigs_98 said:
Dekker_Tifosi said:
Dumoulin is much better in a hilly/rolling TT than in a flat one. It was the rolling TT of the TDF 2016 where Dumoulin put major difference into the rest. Same with Giro 2017. Same with the World ITT championship.
It's the high speed flat TT's he barely put time into others, or even lose. Giro 2018 is a good example. End Giro 2017 is also a good example. Worlds ITT in Qatar is also a good example.

He almost never wins entirely flat TT's for a reason. He does not like them.
At the same time one could argue that Froome is for some reason better in flat TT's. Look at 2013 for example where he almost beat tony Martin in his prime in a pan flat TT while he almost lost to contador in a very hilly one. Some will say he was still better in the hilly one as he won it but I think the main difference is that there was no specialist in top shape for hilly TT's while there was an absolute flat TT specialist. Unfortunately there is no track record for Dumoulin in hilly TT's at the end of a gt, but I'm convinced he'll be good.
Imagine Dumoulin getting an ITT like the 2015 Giro.

I'm pretty sure we'll barely see hilly ITTs in the next few years almost solely because of how well Dumoulin is climbing as well right now.
 
del1962 said:
Gigs_98 said:
Dekker_Tifosi said:
Dumoulin is much better in a hilly/rolling TT than in a flat one. It was the rolling TT of the TDF 2016 where Dumoulin put major difference into the rest. Same with Giro 2017. Same with the World ITT championship.
It's the high speed flat TT's he barely put time into others, or even lose. Giro 2018 is a good example. End Giro 2017 is also a good example. Worlds ITT in Qatar is also a good example.

He almost never wins entirely flat TT's for a reason. He does not like them.
At the same time one could argue that Froome is for some reason better in flat TT's. Look at 2013 for example where he almost beat tony Martin in his prime in a pan flat TT while he almost lost to contador in a very hilly one. Some will say he was still better in the hilly one as he won it but I think the main difference is that there was no specialist in top shape for hilly TT's while there was an absolute flat TT specialist. Unfortunately there is no track record for Dumoulin in hilly TT's at the end of a gt, but I'm convinced he'll be good.
Froome beat Dumoulin in 2016 Hilly ITT but was beaten by him in flat ITT that same tour, Froome prefers hilly aswell

Wrong. Dumoulin was beaten by Froome in a pure climb TT. That wasn't a hilly TT.

For christ sake Aru and Bardet were in the top 5..
This was the profile
https://www.procyclingstats.com/images/profiles/ap/ac/tour-de-france-2016-stage-18-profile.jpg

I don't know how you can call that a hilly TT. This is what's called an MTT.

The TT he won wasn't flat. It was rolling with a very hilly finish:
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2016/stage-13-teams/today/profiles

I hate it when people sprout such misinformed nonsense.
 
Salvarani said:
A TT at the end of GT also comes down to who has the most left in the tank. Not just ability to TT well.
That is very much true, but that takes absolutely nothing away from my point that Dumoulin prefers hilly tt's and generally takes much more time in them than in flat high speed TT's, and generally also performs much better than in flat itt.
 

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