He's a kilo lighter than in the Giro. Says that makes it easier to climb. Says it's somehow easier for him to be lighter during the summer than during the spring
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He needs on time on Thomas yes, but as Froome states, Dumoulin is a risk averse rider, he won't be doing crazy attacks but calculated risks (like the downhill attack with Kragh). And more hope that Thomas will collapse.Oliwright said:Wiggins estimates that Thomas will just follow wheels now and Froome will be given license to attack as long as Dumoulin doesn't follow.
It'll be interesting to see how TD plays it now as he needs to gain time.
Wow, being at froome's ridiculous level in second consecutive grand tour turns out to be perfectly normal, when it comes to saving humanity.Rollthedice said:With Nibali gone, Quintana looking like he'll rather be somewhere else, Dumoulin is the only hope left for humanity. Let us all pray he'll have the legs until the end. He can do it.
Dekker_Tifosi said:Still looks to me like Thomas is stronger.
And today was the perfect example why it's good for Sky that they have 2 there. Like now he attacked, those 2 follow. Then they don't ride with him, and counter attack him. It's unbelievable he still has the strength to come back somehow. But at some point this is going wrong and we're looking at Sky riding away in the distance
Dekker_Tifosi said:Still looks to me like Thomas is stronger.
And today was the perfect example why it's good for Sky that they have 2 there. Like now he attacked, those 2 follow. Then they don't ride with him, and counter attack him. It's unbelievable he still has the strength to come back somehow. But at some point this is going wrong and we're looking at Sky riding away in the distance
dacooley said:Wow, being at froome's ridiculous level in second consecutive grand tour turns out to be perfectly normal, when it comes to saving humanity.Rollthedice said:With Nibali gone, Quintana looking like he'll rather be somewhere else, Dumoulin is the only hope left for humanity. Let us all pray he'll have the legs until the end. He can do it.
Why not vice versa?Red Rick said:At some point I think Dumoulin might have to gamble that Froome wants to drop Thomas too.
True, but speculating about that is no fun is itDekker_Tifosi said:Plus he has to have the legs. It's not unforeseeable that Dumoulin himself cracks
How do you mean? Thomas already has the time he needs?Rollthedice said:Why not vice versa?Red Rick said:At some point I think Dumoulin might have to gamble that Froome wants to drop Thomas too.
Red Rick said:True, but speculating about that is no fun is itDekker_Tifosi said:Plus he has to have the legs. It's not unforeseeable that Dumoulin himself cracks
How do you mean? Thomas already has the time he needs?Rollthedice said:Why not vice versa?Red Rick said:At some point I think Dumoulin might have to gamble that Froome wants to drop Thomas too.
kiszol said:The four best TTers from the GC guys are the four best climbers as well. Very strange! What are the pure climbers doing?
The level is very high as well, if we look at the climbing times.
As for Tom, he has a fantastic race and without the stage 6 problem he would be in pole position now. As for the rest of the race how can he win?
In my opinion, Thomas, Froome and Roglic are on a very similar level for the upcoming TT, and Tom can beat all of them by an approximately 30 sec margin. That means that he needs to find 1:20 on Thomas while he can't lose more than 20 sec to Froome and more than 1:20 to Roglic.
We have three stages with downhill finishes left: Carcassone, Bagnéres-de-Luchon and Laruns. Tom is a great descender and he can try another attack in one of these descents but Froome is damn good too and Thomas is not bad either. I don't really think that he can win the race with a big attack downhill. Stage 15 and 16 are not that hard, I don't expect differences between the 4 leaders in those stages. Stage 19 could be a different story, but still not that big of a chance there. So the big chance for Tom is obviously Stage 17 with the Portet mountain top finish. Dumolin showed that he is in excellent form and is one of the best climbers in the peloton. Still, winning the time needed on such a hard stage after 2 and a half weeks of racing with the Giro already in his legs. I would love to be optimistic but I don't really see it happening.
In my opininon the only realistic way for Tom to win the Tour is Thomas cracking big time on stage 17 or 19. in that case all he needs to do is follow Froomey's wheel. Not that that is such an easy thing to do. Anyway, if this won't happen I still hope Tom won't crack and he can finish on the podium. That would be a super great result for him. He would be a big favourite to win next year even if he won't progress further which I very much doubt.
An interesting note: Geschke almost got within the TOP20 with his break today and with some luck he cen be in the TOP20 comes Stage 17 so maybe he can start from the same group as the leaders. Not that I think that has big importance but it wouldn't hurt for sure.
At the same time one could argue that Froome is for some reason better in flat TT's. Look at 2013 for example where he almost beat tony Martin in his prime in a pan flat TT while he almost lost to contador in a very hilly one. Some will say he was still better in the hilly one as he won it but I think the main difference is that there was no specialist in top shape for hilly TT's while there was an absolute flat TT specialist. Unfortunately there is no track record for Dumoulin in hilly TT's at the end of a gt, but I'm convinced he'll be good.Dekker_Tifosi said:Dumoulin is much better in a hilly/rolling TT than in a flat one. It was the rolling TT of the TDF 2016 where Dumoulin put major difference into the rest. Same with Giro 2017. Same with the World ITT championship.
It's the high speed flat TT's he barely put time into others, or even lose. Giro 2018 is a good example. End Giro 2017 is also a good example. Worlds ITT in Qatar is also a good example.
He almost never wins entirely flat TT's for a reason. He does not like them.
Gigs_98 said:At the same time one could argue that Froome is for some reason better in flat TT's. Look at 2013 for example where he almost beat tony Martin in his prime in a pan flat TT while he almost lost to contador in a very hilly one. Some will say he was still better in the hilly one as he won it but I think the main difference is that there was no specialist in top shape for hilly TT's while there was an absolute flat TT specialist. Unfortunately there is no track record for Dumoulin in hilly TT's at the end of a gt, but I'm convinced he'll be good.Dekker_Tifosi said:Dumoulin is much better in a hilly/rolling TT than in a flat one. It was the rolling TT of the TDF 2016 where Dumoulin put major difference into the rest. Same with Giro 2017. Same with the World ITT championship.
It's the high speed flat TT's he barely put time into others, or even lose. Giro 2018 is a good example. End Giro 2017 is also a good example. Worlds ITT in Qatar is also a good example.
He almost never wins entirely flat TT's for a reason. He does not like them.
Imagine Dumoulin getting an ITT like the 2015 Giro.Gigs_98 said:At the same time one could argue that Froome is for some reason better in flat TT's. Look at 2013 for example where he almost beat tony Martin in his prime in a pan flat TT while he almost lost to contador in a very hilly one. Some will say he was still better in the hilly one as he won it but I think the main difference is that there was no specialist in top shape for hilly TT's while there was an absolute flat TT specialist. Unfortunately there is no track record for Dumoulin in hilly TT's at the end of a gt, but I'm convinced he'll be good.Dekker_Tifosi said:Dumoulin is much better in a hilly/rolling TT than in a flat one. It was the rolling TT of the TDF 2016 where Dumoulin put major difference into the rest. Same with Giro 2017. Same with the World ITT championship.
It's the high speed flat TT's he barely put time into others, or even lose. Giro 2018 is a good example. End Giro 2017 is also a good example. Worlds ITT in Qatar is also a good example.
He almost never wins entirely flat TT's for a reason. He does not like them.
del1962 said:Gigs_98 said:At the same time one could argue that Froome is for some reason better in flat TT's. Look at 2013 for example where he almost beat tony Martin in his prime in a pan flat TT while he almost lost to contador in a very hilly one. Some will say he was still better in the hilly one as he won it but I think the main difference is that there was no specialist in top shape for hilly TT's while there was an absolute flat TT specialist. Unfortunately there is no track record for Dumoulin in hilly TT's at the end of a gt, but I'm convinced he'll be good.Dekker_Tifosi said:Dumoulin is much better in a hilly/rolling TT than in a flat one. It was the rolling TT of the TDF 2016 where Dumoulin put major difference into the rest. Same with Giro 2017. Same with the World ITT championship.
It's the high speed flat TT's he barely put time into others, or even lose. Giro 2018 is a good example. End Giro 2017 is also a good example. Worlds ITT in Qatar is also a good example.
He almost never wins entirely flat TT's for a reason. He does not like them.
Froome beat Dumoulin in 2016 Hilly ITT but was beaten by him in flat ITT that same tour, Froome prefers hilly aswell
That is very much true, but that takes absolutely nothing away from my point that Dumoulin prefers hilly tt's and generally takes much more time in them than in flat high speed TT's, and generally also performs much better than in flat itt.Salvarani said:A TT at the end of GT also comes down to who has the most left in the tank. Not just ability to TT well.