Teams & Riders Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

[Red Rick]

Re:

Dumoulin gets his max advantage thru TTs. The number of people who have dropped him consistently in the mountains are rare but as long as they are there, they can easily drop him. Froome got 3 min in one stage. Quintana, Froome and Simon Yates have dropped him consistently and gained > 30 s in a single stage. If there are no TTs to offset these losses, he cant win and possibly will finish out of the podium as well. There is the possibility of a bad day as well. If the TDF is targeted, there is no plan B to save the season with the Giro or Vuelta( tiredness factor), or Monuments (Unproven). Consider the riders who have targeted the TDF for a long time but who have not won a single GT, it is a very long list. Also he does not have a team to defend the TDF having already lost 2 GTs. The appearance money would probably be a deciding factor as well.

- Quintana didn't drop him consistently and got dropped himself as well.
- Yates was in the shape of his life for 2 weeks to make up time for 40km of ITT, before he imploded.
- Froome's Finestre raid was an anomaly, don't treat it like it will happen with any sort of regularity

He got 2nd in the Tour after riding the Giro, performing better than Froome in the Tour, who won the Tour and Vuelta the year before. Riding the Vuelta if the Giro fails is not out of question.

He got 4th in the hardest WCRR in years after riding the worst schedule to be good in that time of the year. He won the Binckbank Tour beating out a bunch of classic specialists on both the Ardennes and Flemish stage. He also got caught for 2nd at the 2015 WCRR like 100m before the line.


Dumoulin isn't avoiding anything or anyone.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re: Re:

Is it the opposition he's running from and not the parcours? If he's seen that Froome and G are going all in for the Tour, his best chance of a GT win is one of the other GT's regardless of the amount of TT kilometres. He must be sick of the sight of SKY's backsides.

IMO, yes. He's avoiding Froome and G. He also doesn't like the media circus that is the Tour.

The Giro ITTs were designed to keep the subpar TTers in contention, also. As per Vegni himself.

- Froome's Finestre raid was an anomaly, don't treat it like it will happen with any sort of regularity

Froome was injured from the start. The GC wouldn't have been as close otherwise... there would have been no need for Froome to pull a Landis.

Also note that Dumoulin couldn't properly distance Froome in the main Giro ITT, or in the Tour one, for that matter. Yeah, he beat him, but by seconds.

True about the other contenders, but the field will be much stronger this time around. Simon Yates won't be racing like that ever again, either. Although I don't think Yates' main strength is in proper high mountain stages, anyhow. We'll see if he ever develops into a Giro or Tour winner, but I highly doubt it. Bernal, Mas, Roglic, on the other hand... maybe so.

 

[SafeBet]

So why didn't he avoid Froome in Giro 2018?

 

[Kwibus]

Is it the opposition he's running from and not the parcours? If he's seen that Froome and G are going all in for the Tour, his best chance of a GT win is one of the other GT's regardless of the amount of TT kilometres. He must be sick of the sight of SKY's backsides.

No way. If the tdf had the giro course and vice versa he wouldve 100% went to the tdf.

I think he made the right choice and thank god he didnt go to the tdf, because its the tdf, or because everyone expects him too. Allthough he more or less still does that by going to the tdf after the giro. Wish he didnt and went to the vuelta instead.

 

[DFA123]

Is it the opposition he's running from and not the parcours? If he's seen that Froome and G are going all in for the Tour, his best chance of a GT win is one of the other GT's regardless of the amount of TT kilometres. He must be sick of the sight of SKY's backsides.

Yep, I think his choice shows a tacit acknowledgment that he believes he is still a big underdog against Sky (which he is imo). If he believed he was at the same level as Sky, and a 50-50 shot against them, then he would surely go to the Tour, as it is the much bigger prize.

By choosing the Giro, he's maximizing his chances of winning another GT which is understandable. I'm not sure the Giro route actually suits him more than the Tour route - but the quality of riders there certainly does. And he's not confident enough in his ability yet to put all his eggs in the Tour basket.

 

[Red Rick]

Is it the opposition he's running from and not the parcours? If he's seen that Froome and G are going all in for the Tour, his best chance of a GT win is one of the other GT's regardless of the amount of TT kilometres. He must be sick of the sight of SKY's backsides.

No way. If the tdf had the giro course and vice versa he wouldve 100% went to the tdf.

I think he made the right choice and thank god he didnt go to the tdf, because its the tdf, or because everyone expects him too. Allthough he more or less still does that by going to the tdf after the giro. Wish he didnt and went to the vuelta instead.

TdF after Giro wasn't confirmed.

Dumoulin goes to the Giro cause the higher %% of winning the Giro makes it worth going there

After finishing the Giro, Vuelta vs Tour actually leans towards Vuelta so much stronger than Giro vs Tour now, that I'm 100% sure Tour after Giro would only be because the sponsor demands it.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

I think in some ways Dumoulin may be as close as we'll see to Indurain. Yes I think Dumoulin can with a Tour and possibly multiple Tours.

...hence the Dumourain references.

@movingtarget, what makes you think that the '20 Tour will be friendly to him, particularly after Sky being gone, Froome being done (although he can Horner his way to glory, I wouldn't be surprised, just dismayed).

Every lost opportunity is that: a lost opportunity. Ask Quintana.

Like I said if Dumoulin gets a moderate amount of TT kms and he wins the Giro he won't return again in 2020 I doubt, especially with so much expectation that he will chase the biggest race on the calendar and be favoured to win it. I have given up trying to understand the performances of Quintana. He could push Froome when Froome was at his peak as a climber but now he doesn't even look like podium material and he is in the best period as far as his age and experience go. He should be at his peak. I think he needs a fresh start at another team with a different director. A different approach maybe. Landa is also very unpredictable and Movistar tactically seem to be all over the place.

 

[Red Rick]

Is it the opposition he's running from and not the parcours? If he's seen that Froome and G are going all in for the Tour, his best chance of a GT win is one of the other GT's regardless of the amount of TT kilometres. He must be sick of the sight of SKY's backsides.

Yep, I think his choice shows a tacit acknowledgment that he believes he is still a big underdog against Sky (which he is imo). If he believed he was at the same level as Sky, and a 50-50 shot against them, then he would surely go to the Tour, as it is the much bigger prize.

By choosing the Giro, he's maximizing his chances of winning another GT which is understandable. I'm not sure the Giro route actually suits him more than the Tour route - but the quality of riders there certainly does. And he's not confident enough in his ability yet to put all his eggs in the Tour basket.

This Tour route just puts so much emphasis on team strength that Dumoulin is a huge underdog if he matches Froome uphill.

Like, perfect world for Dumoulin, he takes 30s out of Froome and Thomas in the TTT and ITT combined, then what. He'll get isolated and 2v1'd every next mountain stage.

Dumoulin can literally be better than Froome and have half the chance of winning if Thomas is like he was this year.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I think in some ways Dumoulin may be as close as we'll see to Indurain. Yes I think Dumoulin can with a Tour and possibly multiple Tours.

...hence the Dumourain references.

@movingtarget, what makes you think that the '20 Tour will be friendly to him, particularly after Sky being gone, Froome being done (although he can Horner his way to glory, I wouldn't be surprised, just dismayed).

Every lost opportunity is that: a lost opportunity. Ask Quintana.

Like I said if Dumoulin gets a moderate amount of TT kms and he wins the Giro he won't return again in 2020 I doubt, especially with so much expectation that he will chase the biggest race on the calendar and be favoured to win it. I have given up trying to understand the performances of Quintana. He could push Froome when Froome was at his peak as a climber but now he doesn't even look like podium material and he is in the best period as far as his age and experience go. He should be at his peak. I think he needs a fresh start at another team with a different director. A different approach maybe. Landa is also very unpredictable and Movistar tactically seem to be all over the place.

Can't possibly imagine Dumoulin choosing the Giro in 2020 no matter what happens in 2019 due to the Olympics, unless the ASO puts down one of them beauties like 2015.

Really one reason for the 2019 Giro field might be the anticipation that 2020 could have a really unfortunate place on the calendar with the Olympic and Worlds RR being likely very climber friendly.

 

[DFA123]

Is it the opposition he's running from and not the parcours? If he's seen that Froome and G are going all in for the Tour, his best chance of a GT win is one of the other GT's regardless of the amount of TT kilometres. He must be sick of the sight of SKY's backsides.

Yep, I think his choice shows a tacit acknowledgment that he believes he is still a big underdog against Sky (which he is imo). If he believed he was at the same level as Sky, and a 50-50 shot against them, then he would surely go to the Tour, as it is the much bigger prize.

By choosing the Giro, he's maximizing his chances of winning another GT which is understandable. I'm not sure the Giro route actually suits him more than the Tour route - but the quality of riders there certainly does. And he's not confident enough in his ability yet to put all his eggs in the Tour basket.

This Tour route just puts so much emphasis on team strength that Dumoulin is a huge underdog if he matches Froome uphill.

Like, perfect world for Dumoulin, he takes 30s out of Froome and Thomas in the TTT and ITT combined, then what. He'll get isolated and 2v1'd every next mountain stage.

Dumoulin can literally be better than Froome and have half the chance of winning if Thomas is like he was this year.

Agreed. He's not confident of going toe-to-toe with Sky at the Tour, and seriously risking finishing another season without a GT win, which is fair enough. It seems like most team leaders feel the same and fancy their chances at the Giro rather than riding for 2nd place at the Tour.

 

[yaco]

Dumoulin could have won the 2019 TDF if in-form -French teams will lose bucket loads of time in the TTT, while Sunweb would just be on the mark with Sky - Then Dumoulin could take time in the ITT and then it's up to the mountains - Giro is more appealing for TD because 2 out of the 3 ITT are rolling/hilly in which he is number one in the field - The only rider who will be close to him i this sphere is Rogic.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Dumoulin could have won the 2019 TDF if in-form -French teams will lose bucket loads of time in the TTT, while Sunweb would just be on the mark with Sky - Then Dumoulin could take time in the ITT and then it's up to the mountains - Giro is more appealing for TD because 2 out of the 3 ITT are rolling/hilly in which he is number one in the field - The only rider who will be close to him i this sphere is Rogic.

Roglic and Valverde (if he puts in an ITT he's capable) are the two GC riders who can get closest to him in an ITT. However, from what Valverde has said there are questions as to what in the world he's planning on doing in the Giro. Nibali should be able to limit his losses if he's on.

 

[Anderis]

Re: Re:

Roglic and Valverde (if he puts in an ITT he's capable) are the two GC riders who can get closest to him in an ITT. However, from what Valverde has said there are questions as to what in the world he's planning on doing in the Giro. Nibali should be able to limit his losses if he's on.

Valverde's record in ITTs during GTs isn't all that impressive to mention him together with Roglic and clearly ahead of anyone else IMO.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Roglic and Valverde (if he puts in an ITT he's capable) are the two GC riders who can get closest to him in an ITT. However, from what Valverde has said there are questions as to what in the world he's planning on doing in the Giro. Nibali should be able to limit his losses if he's on.

Valverde's record in ITTs during GTs isn't all that impressive to mention him together with Roglic and clearly ahead of anyone else IMO.

He's done some very good ITT's, but he's also an exceptionally inconsistent time trialist. For someone who is otherwise very consist, it is odd.

 

[Red Rick]

I'd say Dumoulin has a small edge on Roglic and they're both likely to be a minute ahead of all the rest in the long ITT. The non specialists range from solid to horrendous, and I'd put Nibali at the front of that pack, but he'll still lose 2s/km+ on flat ITTs.

I think Roglic is a small favorite in the prologue and they'll be quite comfortably ahead of the rest so that unless bonus seconds come into play for one of them - and I don't think they will - the winner of the prologue will probably keep pink until the San Marino ITT, unless it's shipped off to a breakaway.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

I'd say Dumoulin has a small edge on Roglic and they're both likely to be a minute ahead of all the rest in the long ITT. The non specialists range from solid to horrendous, and I'd put Nibali at the front of that pack, but he'll still lose 2s/km+ on flat ITTs.

I think Roglic is a small favorite in the prologue and they'll be quite comfortably ahead of the rest so that unless bonus seconds come into play for one of them - and I don't think they will - the winner of the prologue will probably keep pink until the San Marino ITT, unless it's shipped off to a breakaway.

Roglic is still learning how to be a grand tour rider which showed in the last Tour. For managing a three week performance I'd still favour Dumoulin even though Roglic has made an obvious jump like Yates, who should do well again in the mountains.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I'd say Dumoulin has a small edge on Roglic and they're both likely to be a minute ahead of all the rest in the long ITT. The non specialists range from solid to horrendous, and I'd put Nibali at the front of that pack, but he'll still lose 2s/km+ on flat ITTs.

I think Roglic is a small favorite in the prologue and they'll be quite comfortably ahead of the rest so that unless bonus seconds come into play for one of them - and I don't think they will - the winner of the prologue will probably keep pink until the San Marino ITT, unless it's shipped off to a breakaway.

Roglic is still learning how to be a grand tour rider which showed in the last Tour. For managing a three week performance I'd still favour Dumoulin even though Roglic has made an obvious jump like Yates, who should do well again in the mountains.

Roglic hadn't trained his ITT properly cause he still had a rock in his elbow, which is why that sucked so much. It also makes me wonder if that, in combination with the cobbled stage right before the Alps might explain why he was a little weaker there.

But he was definitely scary in the Pyrenees, though overall I still do favour Dumoulin.

 

[Vesica]

Dumbmoulin...that decision is insane: doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome. Unless he wants Giro win and Tour stages, which no longer is an option considering his achievements. Le Tour is the big prize, why not focus on it? Even if he wins Il Giro, he already won one. Then what? Get his butt kicked in July? Again?

I don't get it. I like TD but at this rate, he'll never win Le Tour. Years go by...ask Ritchie. And yea, the route isn't in his favor. So why not go Vuelta? I don't know.

That Giro-Tour idea is not a good one...my $0.02.

Welcome to 2019 Tonton. We're watching a new period of cycling where the Tour is no longer 'the most important race of the year'. I think it is still for spectators and certainly for sponsors, but I think that the Giro is ranked higher under the riders.

And why should Dumoulin go to the Tour, with a route which is not in his favor? He's 28, so lots of opportunities in the nearby future to ride (and maybe win) the Tour and/or Vuelta.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Dumbmoulin...that decision is insane: doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome. Unless he wants Giro win and Tour stages, which no longer is an option considering his achievements. Le Tour is the big prize, why not focus on it? Even if he wins Il Giro, he already won one. Then what? Get his butt kicked in July? Again?

I don't get it. I like TD but at this rate, he'll never win Le Tour. Years go by...ask Ritchie. And yea, the route isn't in his favor. So why not go Vuelta? I don't know.

That Giro-Tour idea is not a good one...my $0.02.

Welcome to 2019 Tonton. We're watching a new period of cycling where the Tour is no longer 'the most important race of the year'. I think it is still for spectators and certainly for sponsors, but I think that the Giro is ranked higher under the riders.

And why should Dumoulin go to the Tour, with a route which is not in his favor? He's 28, so lots of opportunities in the nearby future to ride (and maybe win) the Tour and/or Vuelta.

That's not a new period of cycling. TdF is still the greatest, the most important (..and so on).
Another issue I must admit.. so silly route.. . I hope none of the Frenchman will win it.
If I had to choose between let say Bardet and Valverde (who will not compete) ........., Valverde, please win TdF 2019.

 

[Koronin]

Dumbmoulin...that decision is insane: doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome. Unless he wants Giro win and Tour stages, which no longer is an option considering his achievements. Le Tour is the big prize, why not focus on it? Even if he wins Il Giro, he already won one. Then what? Get his butt kicked in July? Again?

I don't get it. I like TD but at this rate, he'll never win Le Tour. Years go by...ask Ritchie. And yea, the route isn't in his favor. So why not go Vuelta? I don't know.

That Giro-Tour idea is not a good one...my $0.02.

Welcome to 2019 Tonton. We're watching a new period of cycling where the Tour is no longer 'the most important race of the year'. I think it is still for spectators and certainly for sponsors, but I think that the Giro is ranked higher under the riders.

And why should Dumoulin go to the Tour, with a route which is not in his favor? He's 28, so lots of opportunities in the nearby future to ride (and maybe win) the Tour and/or Vuelta.

That's not a new period of cycling. TdF is still the greatest, the most important (..and so on).
Another issue I must admit.. so silly route.. . I hope none of the Frenchman will win it.
If I had to choose between let say Bardet and Valverde (who will not compete) ........., Valverde, please win TdF 2019.

WOW!!!! Did you really just say that?

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Dumbmoulin...that decision is insane: doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome. Unless he wants Giro win and Tour stages, which no longer is an option considering his achievements. Le Tour is the big prize, why not focus on it? Even if he wins Il Giro, he already won one. Then what? Get his butt kicked in July? Again?

I don't get it. I like TD but at this rate, he'll never win Le Tour. Years go by...ask Ritchie. And yea, the route isn't in his favor. So why not go Vuelta? I don't know.

That Giro-Tour idea is not a good one...my $0.02.

Welcome to 2019 Tonton. We're watching a new period of cycling where the Tour is no longer 'the most important race of the year'. I think it is still for spectators and certainly for sponsors, but I think that the Giro is ranked higher under the riders.

And why should Dumoulin go to the Tour, with a route which is not in his favor? He's 28, so lots of opportunities in the nearby future to ride (and maybe win) the Tour and/or Vuelta.

That's not a new period of cycling. TdF is still the greatest, the most important (..and so on).
Another issue I must admit.. so silly route.. . I hope none of the Frenchman will win it.
If I had to choose between let say Bardet and Valverde (who will not compete) ........., Valverde, please win TdF 2019.

WOW!!!! Did you really just say that?

:razz: Bardet/Pinot or Valverde in TdF 2019?
Ups. Valverde...

 

[Koronin]

Dumbmoulin...that decision is insane: doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome. Unless he wants Giro win and Tour stages, which no longer is an option considering his achievements. Le Tour is the big prize, why not focus on it? Even if he wins Il Giro, he already won one. Then what? Get his butt kicked in July? Again?

I don't get it. I like TD but at this rate, he'll never win Le Tour. Years go by...ask Ritchie. And yea, the route isn't in his favor. So why not go Vuelta? I don't know.

That Giro-Tour idea is not a good one...my $0.02.

Welcome to 2019 Tonton. We're watching a new period of cycling where the Tour is no longer 'the most important race of the year'. I think it is still for spectators and certainly for sponsors, but I think that the Giro is ranked higher under the riders.

And why should Dumoulin go to the Tour, with a route which is not in his favor? He's 28, so lots of opportunities in the nearby future to ride (and maybe win) the Tour and/or Vuelta.

That's not a new period of cycling. TdF is still the greatest, the most important (..and so on).
Another issue I must admit.. so silly route.. . I hope none of the Frenchman will win it.
If I had to choose between let say Bardet and Valverde (who will not compete) ........., Valverde, please win TdF 2019.

WOW!!!! Did you really just say that?

:razz: Bardet/Pinot or Valverde in TdF 2019?
Ups. Valverde...

Just surprised. That is all.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Yes, and it's the best thread to say it:
If ASO forces the 2nd/3rd rider of the World (TD) to abandon TdF because of its route, it's absolutely crazy.

 

[Red Rick]

Can we make a compromise and have Bauke Mollema win the Tour instead?

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Nope. Rafał the Greatest Majka (by his absence).