Teams & Riders Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

[DBotero]

Re:

He's a class act. He wil still probably end 5th or so in GC, hope he doesn't see that as a sign to aim at Grand Tours in the feature.

This is a guy that can be World TT Champion, win in the Ardennes and conquer 1-week races.

Nah,he needs to go big.If Sir Bradley manage it,might be possible for Dumoulin too.After he wins a GT he can go back to win your little races

 

[BigMac]

That's a matter of perspective. 'Go big' isn't a synonym of aiming at GT's, rather being the top dog at what you do. I think everyone agrees that it's a given he can dominate the types of races I mentioned, not GT's. I also think we shouldn't draw some sort of hierarchy that compares GT's with classics, especially monuments, with regards to importance. Each is important in their own right, and arguably 'many' monuments more than two of the three Grand Tours. Basically what you're saying is that Ryder Hesjedal has bigger wins than, say, Fabian Canellara, and therefore a better achieved career. Everyone would agree that Cancellara (and many other one-day specialists) went bigger than a significant part of Grand Tour winners. My point is, the GT obsession has driven many a rider away from a winning path they could otherwise have taken if aiming at what they're perceived to be good at before falling for the trap. Dumoulin is certainly one of the best all rounders around, likely to perform in a pletora of terrains and conditions, as opposed to the rider he'd become if turning his sights to GT specialization. Not worth the risk either unless he is to become a multiple GT winner, as it's certain he can dominate the courses mentioned above.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Re:

Long long way to go. He's in a nice position, but how will he come back from today's 100% effort? Will it take a toll and bury him on Wednesday? I suspect with the ITT in mind, all the other contenders will go all out on the final climb on Wednesday. If he stays in touch, it's his race to lose.

Next Wednesday will be the acid test, son. He is discovering himself day by day, and doesn't know where his own limits are yet. He may change his attitude to the race, depending on Wednesday. If he can stay in touch then, he's absolutely got a shot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2Bm2_etfuM

 

[Red Rick]

He's not gonna win, he's got absolutely no team. He's gonna be isolated very quickly

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

He's not gonna win, he's got absolutely no team. He's gonna be isolated very quickly

Yep. Craddock is not going to be enough vs Movistar, Tinkoff and Sky. He'll have to do everything himself

 

[Amsterhammer]

Re:

He's not gonna win, he's got absolutely no team. He's gonna be isolated very quickly

I agree. I don't 'believe' that he can stay close enough on Wednesday. But, IF he can stay in touch with the real mountain goats (remember that he surprised everybody in Switzerland,) he may decide to try for the once in a lifetime chance at a GT. But whatever he does, he has already given Dutch fans the biggest thrill, and biggest win, that we have seen in a very long time. For that alone we can already be grateful.

 

[BigMac]

Tom and Craddock will put an effort of epic proportions on the stage to Cortals d´Encamp to keep the jersey. Something like Voeckler and Rolland on Serre-chevalier.

 

[SeriousSam]

Obviously not sustainable, but extremely impressive nonetheless.

 

[bigcog]

He'll be off to Sky in the next few years, he's ideal for them

 

[BrentonOfTheNorth]

Re:

Why can't he win? I don't understand why everyone is saying he won't win. He's the strongest at the TTs and climbs so far. Today was a very serious climb. He has a minute lead and a future time trial to counteract stages 15 and 16 which are his biggest tests IMO...

He's not gonna win, he's got absolutely no team. He's gonna be isolated very quickly

It's not like his rivals are going to attack on anything but MTFs, judging by how conservatively they're racing. I don' think any serious GC contenders are going to attack on the Gallina. He doesn't need a great team if he's the strongest rider in this case.

 

[ray j willings]

Wait and see time. He said he has lost weight but not power, He has been great and to win today the way he did could be a sign of things to come. That was steep and nasty and he did not judge the climb as good as Froome but was just stronger. Very impressive.
If so no ITT the WC.[not toilet]

 

[JRanton]

Re:

He's not gonna win, he's got absolutely no team. He's gonna be isolated very quickly

It's going to be very difficult, particularly stage 11. He'll need to use the other teams. If I was him I'd stick to Froome's wheel on that stage. Sky could send riders pretty close on GC up the road but Movistar will probably mark them with one of their two big guns and Froome can't afford for Valverde or Quintana to take time. He'll use the Sky-Movistar dynamic to his advantage and if his legs are strong enough he should be ok.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah, I think Sky are gonna train away anyway. If he's still in the same position later they can always screw him over in the last mountain stage

 

[Vasilis]

Re:

Yeah, I think Sky are gonna train away anyway. If he's still in the same position later they can always screw him over in the last mountain stage

I'm not so sure, with 4 riders on GC they could probably send a couple up the road towards the end. They don't have to take responsibility and they haven't so far either. I don't think they will specifically ride against Dumoulin at this point.

 

[Taxus4a]

A start is born, he has very good result always in pros, but thi year he confirmed he is a rider for GC and maybe this Vuelta confirmed he is for GT as well. He is young, so has big potential still to improve.

Welcome, becouse cycling need more riders very strong in TT that are good in the mountains, so climblers will need to attack from far. With Porte out of Sky and Domoulin strong, cycling will be better.

 

[Kwibus]

So he said he did lose some weight before the Vuelta. He sure looked like he did.

Wednesday he has to rely on other teams. If for example Valverde goes up the road early and they all watch at Dumoulin they will all lose their chances of winning the Vuelta so without a doubt Katusha, Tinkov, Sky will put riders on the front to pull. Dumoulin must rely on that.
When the doms are gone he has to chase himself.

 

[Amsterhammer]

The whole final climb in HD. Kirby/Kelly warning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqC8KTnBcKM

 

[Gigs_98]

If we consider that he will take about 2 minutes on the other gc contenders except Froome in the ITT he would have an advantage of about 3 minutes if the TT would be tomorrow. And we also shouldnt forget that there are "only" 4 mtf's left and to take 3 minutes on 4 mtf's is extremely difficult. Dumoulin is still by far not my favorite but nobody should underestimate him anymore.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Well now we know why Sky have been sniffing around him for some time, A great TT'er who comes of age at the Vuelta!

 

[ray j willings]

Re:

A start is born, he has very good result always in pros, but thi year he confirmed he is a rider for GC and maybe this Vuelta confirmed he is for GT as well. He is young, so has big potential still to improve.

Welcome, becouse cycling need more riders very strong in TT that are good in the mountains, so climblers will need to attack from far. With Porte out of Sky and Domoulin strong, cycling will be better.

Porte will never win a GT. He's 2nd tier.

 

[MatParker117]

Re: Re:

He's a class act. He wil still probably end 5th or so in GC, hope he doesn't see that as a sign to aim at Grand Tours in the feature.

This is a guy that can be World TT Champion, win in the Ardennes and conquer 1-week races.

Nah,he needs to go big.If Sir Bradley manage it,might be possible for Dumoulin too.After he wins a GT he can go back to win your little races

Wiggo had four elite climbers, Dumoulin has Lawson Craddock.

 

[staubsauger]

Re: Re:

A start is born, he has very good result always in pros, but thi year he confirmed he is a rider for GC and maybe this Vuelta confirmed he is for GT as well. He is young, so has big potential still to improve.

Welcome, becouse cycling need more riders very strong in TT that are good in the mountains, so climblers will need to attack from far. With Porte out of Sky and Domoulin strong, cycling will be better.

Porte will never win a GT. He's 2nd tier.

How can a worse version of Alex Zülle be even close to 3rd tier?

 

[MatParker117]

Re: Re:

Why can't he win? I don't understand why everyone is saying he won't win. He's the strongest at the TTs and climbs so far. Today was a very serious climb. He has a minute lead and a future time trial to counteract stages 15 and 16 which are his biggest tests IMO...

He's not gonna win, he's got absolutely no team. He's gonna be isolated very quickly

It's not like his rivals are going to attack on anything but MTFs, judging by how conservatively they're racing. I don' think any serious GC contenders are going to attack on the Gallina. He doesn't need a great team if he's the strongest rider in this case.

The reason he's in this position is the mountain stages suit him, there one big mountain that he can TT up. Stages 11, 14, 15 & 16 contain multiple Cat 1 or ESP category climbs which Sky, Movistar, Tinkoff & Astana will look to drop him on and with his lack of mountain support is likely. Plus Froome in particular has hung with him in the TT's in the past.

 

[rafaelalencar]

I'm supporting him, for sure. But my honest opinion it's that he will be dropped like a stone on the really mountain stages! He can't match Fromme,Quintana, Aru, etc They will put 5+ or more on him.... Maybe one day he will fight with them but he is not ready to this yet...
I hope that I'm wrong... I love an unexpected champion!

 

[Vasilis]

Re: Re:

A start is born, he has very good result always in pros, but thi year he confirmed he is a rider for GC and maybe this Vuelta confirmed he is for GT as well. He is young, so has big potential still to improve.

Welcome, becouse cycling need more riders very strong in TT that are good in the mountains, so climblers will need to attack from far. With Porte out of Sky and Domoulin strong, cycling will be better.

Porte will never win a GT. He's 2nd tier.

If you say Porte's 2nd tier, fine. However, that does not mean he can't win a GT. Recently, Horner and Hesjedal come to mind as riders who you could consider 2nd tier, but they won a GT anyway. The two things aren't that directly related.