Tour 2012. Who is your money on.

[42x16ss]

Yeah he was riding behind the favourites since the very beggining of the Tour so he didn't have anything to lose by attacking. But in normal circunstances (if that exist) I agree that after Contador he can be one of the best climbers there.

I just couldn't recall if anything else had happened (crashes, injuries,....) but it was probably too much attacking that gor the best of him.

I was under the impression that Contador and Samu surrendered the Tour 2/3 of the way up the Galibier after the bad luck they had in the first week, then agreed to work together the next day to try for a prestigious stage win on the Alpe.

Rewatch the stage, when Evans starts to hit the "go pedal" AC and Samu start conferring as soon as they look uncomfortable.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

There are still too many unknowns to make a reasonable prediction about the winner. The parcours, if the leak is accurate, effectively rules out the specialist climbers with a moderate or worse TT. There are still too many climbs for the outright TT men who can't really climb. But there are big question marks over most of the riders who are not ruled out by the parcours.

Contador is the biggest favourite if he is there, as he is on just about any GT parcours, but there's a very real possibility that he'll be banned.

Evans is probably the next biggest favourite, but it has to be said that he isn't getting any younger. Next year, he's a year older while some of the others will still be improving or will still be solidly in their peak years.

Wiggins has to be in with some kind of shout on that parcours, but his team is going to be facing a lot of different pressures with Cavendish and also the Olympics limiting the support he can expect. And he'll be under a certain amount of pressure to perform at the Olympics himself. Also, he has sucked in GTs more often than he's performed.

Menchov is someone who should in theory be ranked with the previous two but he hasn't produced the necessary form for a long time now. And really, we don't know if he's still capable of it. He also has a record of throwing away time unnecessarily.

Samu Sanchez can time trial well enough to make the list of favourites but his advantage over the three riders above is his climbing, and this parcours goes a long way towards nullifying that.

Froome might not be there, might be working for Wiggins and might in any case be a flash in the pan.

Valverde is coming back from a ban and that has most often removed riders from GC consideration. There are also some other guys like Nibali or Kreuziger who the parcours won't rule out but who are probably too similar to better guys above in these conditions.

The chances are that some of these guys either won't be there or simply won't perform. My suspicion is that one of them will show up in form, with a strong team and will wallop everyone is the most boring Grand Tour in years. I'd love to see some relative no mark get a big lead through a breakaway and then try desperately to hold on, providing a bit of suspense, but that's probably too much to hope for.

 

[El Imbatido]

Although i do agree that it is way too early to be picking a winner for a race that isn't till next july. I did vote for Cadel Evans for a couple of reasons. Yes my Aussie bias, the parcours suit him, and i don't think Alberto Contador will be there. If this happens i think he will have to be one of the biggest favourites if not the favourite.

I do think Valverde could be a dark horse depending on how he comes back form his lay off and of course most of the usual suspects will be there or there abouts

 

[just some guy]

How does Kern ITT anyone ?

and hows his knee ?

 

[movingtarget]

There are still too many unknowns to make a reasonable prediction about the winner. The parcours, if the leak is accurate, effectively rules out the specialist climbers with a moderate or worse TT. There are still too many climbs for the outright TT men who can't really climb. But there are big question marks over most of the riders who are not ruled out by the parcours.

Contador is the biggest favourite if he is there, as he is on just about any GT parcours, but there's a very real possibility that he'll be banned.

Evans is probably the next biggest favourite, but it has to be said that he isn't getting any younger. Next year, he's a year older while some of the others will still be improving or will still be solidly in their peak years.

Wiggins has to be in with some kind of shout on that parcours, but his team is going to be facing a lot of different pressures with Cavendish and also the Olympics limiting the support he can expect. And he'll be under a certain amount of pressure to perform at the Olympics himself. Also, he has sucked in GTs more often than he's performed.

Menchov is someone who should in theory be ranked with the previous two but he hasn't produced the necessary form for a long time now. And really, we don't know if he's still capable of it. He also has a record of throwing away time unnecessarily.

Samu Sanchez can time trial well enough to make the list of favourites but his advantage over the three riders above is his climbing, and this parcours goes a long way towards nullifying that.

Froome might not be there, might be working for Wiggins and might in any case be a flash in the pan.

Valverde is coming back from a ban and that has most often removed riders from GC consideration. There are also some other guys like Nibali or Kreuziger who the parcours won't rule out but who are probably too similar to better guys above in these conditions.

The chances are that some of these guys either won't be there or simply won't perform. My suspicion is that one of them will show up in form, with a strong team and will wallop everyone is the most boring Grand Tour in years. I'd love to see some relative no mark get a big lead through a breakaway and then try desperately to hold on, providing a bit of suspense, but that's probably too much to hope for.

Voeckler won't be given much room to manoeuvre next year after his ride this year. I can't see a break being let go with a dangerous rider. The big break in the 2010 Giro was freakish and the 2006 TDF break with Pereiro was just moronic. I think Sanchez would be pretty happy with the route as will Evans, Menchov and Leipheimer. Contador would have wanted more climbing but will still perform and the TT's won't bother him too much. I don't think Evans age will matter much. Menchov is a little younger, Leipheimer is older, and Evans had a late start to riding grand tours. Voeckler and Basso are almost mid thirties as well. Schleck and Contador may have the age gap but I don't think it's their youth that is getting them results. Valverde has been out of competition for too long to figure this year. Wiggins, Sanchez, Froome, Rolland, Martin should provide some interest and figure in the top 5 or 10. I think Sanchez has a chance to podium. Wiggins will never get a better course for his talents and if he climbs well it could be interesting. If Martin can improve his climbing he would also be a threat but I don't think it will happen for him in 2012. Rolland could be the big improver if he does not have to ride for others. His TT is solid and his climbing is very good. VDB and Gesink I am in two minds about. Gesink in peak form would be good on this course as his TT has improved but the crashes and injuries seem to keep happening. I don't think it's a good course for Basso, Nibali, Scarponi or Rodriguez. Not enough climbing and too much TT.

 

[FignonLeGrand]

has anyone actualy seen Menchov ride at the Tour he always finds a way too lose some daft time somewhere,hell never win it.

+1 he has done nothing for ages, never beaten any quality. Tour is way out of his league. Even if this does have lots of TT there are lots of TTrs better than him.

 

[Angliru]

+1 he has done nothing for ages, never beaten any quality. Tour is way out of his league. Even if this does have lots of TT there are lots of TTrs better than him.

He was on the 3rd step of the Tour podium just last year.

 

[The Hitch]

+1 he has done nothing for ages, never beaten any quality. Tour is way out of his league.

1. MENCHOV Denis RAB 86h03'11"
2 DI LUCA Danilo LPR 01.03
3. PELLIZOTTI Franco LIQ 01'59"
4. SASTRE CANDIL Carlos CTT 03'46"
5. BASSO Ivan

2010 Tour
1 Alberto Contador (ESP) Astana 91h 58' 48"
2 Andy Schleck (LUX) Team Saxo Bank +0' 39"
3 Denis Menchov (RUS) Rabobank +2' 01"
4 Samuel Sanchez (ESP) Euskaltel +3' 40"
5 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (BEL) Omega Pharma – Lotto +6' 54"
6 Robert Gesink (NED) Rabobank +9' 31"
7 Ryder Hesjedal (CAN) Garmin +10' 15"
8 Joaquim Rodríguez (ESP) Katusha +11' 37"
9 Roman Kreuziger (CZE) Liquigas +11' 54"
10 Chris Horner (USA) Team Radioshack +12' 02

2007 Vuelta

1 Denis Menchov RAB 80h 59' 07"
2 Carlos Sastre CSC + 3' 31"
3 Samuel Sánchez EUS + 3' 46"
4 Cadel Evans PRL + 3' 56"
5 Ezequiel Mosquera KGZ + 6' 34" N/A
6 Vladimir Efimkin GCE + 7' 07"
7 Vladimir Karpets GCE + 8' 09"
8 Igor Antón EUS + 8' 44"
9 Manuel Beltrán LIQ + 9' 38"
10 Carlos Barredo QSI + 10' 12"

Vuelta 2005
1 Roberto Heras Liberty Seguros 82h 22' 55"
2 Denis Menchov Rabobank 82h 27' 31"
3 Carlos Sastre Team CSC + 18"
4 Francisco Mancebo Illes Balears-Caisse d'Epargne + 1' 22"
5 Carlos García Quesada Comunitat Valenciana-Elche + 3' 30"
6 Rubén Plaza Comunitat Valenciana-Elche + 7' 00

Even if this does have lots of TT there are lots of TTrs better than him.

Giro monster tt.

1. MENCHOV Denis RAB 1h34'29"
2. LEIPHEIMER Levi AST 20"
3. GARZELLI Stefano ASA 01'03"
4. BRAJKOVIC Janez AST 01'14"
5. PELLIZOTTI Franco LIQ 01'27"
6. WIGGINS Bradley GRM 01'59"
7. BOSISIO Gabriele LPR 02'04"
8. SERPA PEREZ Jose Rodolfo SDA
9. BRUSEGHIN Marzio LAM 02'17"
10. BASSO Ivan LIQ 02'17"
11. SASTRE CANDIL Carlos CTT 02'18"
12. ARMSTRONG Lance AST 02'26"
13. ROGERS Michael THR 02'46"

TT EVans had to win to become Tour winner.

1 Stefan Schumacher (GER) Gerolsteiner 1h 03' 50"
2 Fabian Cancellara (SUI) Team CSC Saxo Bank + 21"
3 Kim Kirchen (LUX) Team Columbia + 1' 01"
4 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Garmin-Chipotle-H30 + 1' 05"
5 David Millar (GBR) Garmin-Chipotle-H30 + 1' 37"
6 Denis Menchov (RUS) Rabobank + 1' 55"
7 Cadel Evans (AUS) Silence-Lotto + 2' 05"
8 Sebastian Lang (GER) Gerolsteiner + 2' 19"
9 Bernhard Kohl (AUT) Gerolsteiner + 2' 21"
10 George Hincapie (USA) Team Columbia + 2' 28

same race

1 Stefan Schumacher (GER) Gerolsteiner 35' 44"
2 Kim Kirchen (LUX) Team Columbia + 18"
3 David Millar (GBR) Garmin-Chipotle-H30 + 18"
4 Cadel Evans (AUS) Silence-Lotto + 23"
5 Fabian Cancellara (SUI) Team CSC Saxo Bank + 33"
6 Denis Menchov (RUS) Rabobank + 34"
7 Jens Voigt (GER) Team CSC Saxo Bank + 35"
8 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Garmin-Chipotle-H30 + 37"
9 George Hincapie (USA) Team Columbia + 41"
10 Vincenzo Nibali (ITA) Liquigas + 47"


2010 Tour With wind problems

11 MENCHOV Denis RAB 03'51"
17. MILLAR David GRM 04'20"
33. VINOKOUROV Alexandre AST 05'32
35. CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto AST 05'43"
41. LEIPHEIMER Levi RSH 05'59"

2007 Vuelta
1. SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel EUS 22'11"
2. MENCHOV Denis RAB 12"
3. CLEMENT Stef BTL 14"
4. BARREDO LLAMAZALES Carlos QSI
5. GONZALEZ CAPILLA Santos KGZ
6. EVANS Cadel PRL 19"
7. MCCARTNEY Jason DSC 25"
8. KARPETS Vladimir GCE 26"
9. MONFORT Maxime COF 28"
10. HANSEN Adam TMO 34"

 

[ferryman]

There are still too many unknowns to make a reasonable prediction about the winner. The parcours, if the leak is accurate, effectively rules out the specialist climbers with a moderate or worse TT. There are still too many climbs for the outright TT men who can't really climb. But there are big question marks over most of the riders who are not ruled out by the parcours.

Contador is the biggest favourite if he is there, as he is on just about any GT parcours, but there's a very real possibility that he'll be banned.

Evans is probably the next biggest favourite, but it has to be said that he isn't getting any younger. Next year, he's a year older while some of the others will still be improving or will still be solidly in their peak years.

Wiggins has to be in with some kind of shout on that parcours, but his team is going to be facing a lot of different pressures with Cavendish and also the Olympics limiting the support he can expect. And he'll be under a certain amount of pressure to perform at the Olympics himself. Also, he has sucked in GTs more often than he's performed.

Menchov is someone who should in theory be ranked with the previous two but he hasn't produced the necessary form for a long time now. And really, we don't know if he's still capable of it. He also has a record of throwing away time unnecessarily.

Samu Sanchez can time trial well enough to make the list of favourites but his advantage over the three riders above is his climbing, and this parcours goes a long way towards nullifying that.

Froome might not be there, might be working for Wiggins and might in any case be a flash in the pan.

Valverde is coming back from a ban and that has most often removed riders from GC consideration. There are also some other guys like Nibali or Kreuziger who the parcours won't rule out but who are probably too similar to better guys above in these conditions.

The chances are that some of these guys either won't be there or simply won't perform. My suspicion is that one of them will show up in form, with a strong team and will wallop everyone is the most boring Grand Tour in years. I'd love to see some relative no mark get a big lead through a breakaway and then try desperately to hold on, providing a bit of suspense, but that's probably too much to hope for.

Nothing against your analysis but you really should have mentioned A Schleck. His time trial really isn't that bad and should improve under Bruyneel (Grrr I know) and he will be forced to attack on whatever he is given by way of climbs.

I've checked more than a dozen bookmakers and everyone still has Andy strong 2nd favourite, closely followed by Evans with Wiggans a distant 4th. As for Sanchez and Menchov you can get fantastic odds right now for a podium place, even better for a win.

Froome and Valverde also.

Bookies get it wrong (they did last year) but the huge difference in odds (and I mean huge if you want to check it out) that they are offering does make me wonder that they know something we don't.

For what it is worth I already have a nice investment on Contador (money back if no show)

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Nothing against your analysis but you really should have mentioned A Schleck. His time trial really isn't that bad and should improve under Bruyneel (Grrr I know) and he will be forced to attack on whatever he is given by way of climbs.

I've checked more than a dozen bookmakers and everyone still has Andy strong 2nd favourite, closely followed by Evans with Wiggans a distant 4th. As for Sanchez and Menchov you can get fantastic odds right now for a podium place, even better for a win.

Froome and Valverde also.

Bookies get it wrong (they did last year) but the huge difference in odds (and I mean huge if you want to check it out) that they are offering does make me wonder that they know something we don't.

For what it is worth I already have a nice investment on Contador (money back if no show)

Bookies set prices to balance books, not to say who they think will win. If they took money on Andy before the route, and don't want to take any more until the book expands, they won't lengthen his price.

 

[jordan5000]

1. MENCHOV Denis RAB 86h03'11"
2 DI LUCA Danilo LPR 01.03
3. PELLIZOTTI Franco LIQ 01'59"
4. SASTRE CANDIL Carlos CTT 03'46"
5. BASSO Ivan

2010 Tour
1 Alberto Contador (ESP) Astana 91h 58' 48"
2 Andy Schleck (LUX) Team Saxo Bank +0' 39"
3 Denis Menchov (RUS) Rabobank +2' 01"
4 Samuel Sanchez (ESP) Euskaltel +3' 40"
5 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (BEL) Omega Pharma – Lotto +6' 54"
6 Robert Gesink (NED) Rabobank +9' 31"
7 Ryder Hesjedal (CAN) Garmin +10' 15"
8 Joaquim Rodríguez (ESP) Katusha +11' 37"
9 Roman Kreuziger (CZE) Liquigas +11' 54"
10 Chris Horner (USA) Team Radioshack +12' 02

2007 Vuelta

1 Denis Menchov RAB 80h 59' 07"
2 Carlos Sastre CSC + 3' 31"
3 Samuel Sánchez EUS + 3' 46"
4 Cadel Evans PRL + 3' 56"
5 Ezequiel Mosquera KGZ + 6' 34" N/A
6 Vladimir Efimkin GCE + 7' 07"
7 Vladimir Karpets GCE + 8' 09"
8 Igor Antón EUS + 8' 44"
9 Manuel Beltrán LIQ + 9' 38"
10 Carlos Barredo QSI + 10' 12"

Vuelta 2005
1 Roberto Heras Liberty Seguros 82h 22' 55"
2 Denis Menchov Rabobank 82h 27' 31"
3 Carlos Sastre Team CSC + 18"
4 Francisco Mancebo Illes Balears-Caisse d'Epargne + 1' 22"
5 Carlos García Quesada Comunitat Valenciana-Elche + 3' 30"
6 Rubén Plaza Comunitat Valenciana-Elche + 7' 00



Giro monster tt.

1. MENCHOV Denis RAB 1h34'29"
2. LEIPHEIMER Levi AST 20"
3. GARZELLI Stefano ASA 01'03"
4. BRAJKOVIC Janez AST 01'14"
5. PELLIZOTTI Franco LIQ 01'27"
6. WIGGINS Bradley GRM 01'59"
7. BOSISIO Gabriele LPR 02'04"
8. SERPA PEREZ Jose Rodolfo SDA
9. BRUSEGHIN Marzio LAM 02'17"
10. BASSO Ivan LIQ 02'17"
11. SASTRE CANDIL Carlos CTT 02'18"
12. ARMSTRONG Lance AST 02'26"
13. ROGERS Michael THR 02'46"

TT EVans had to win to become Tour winner.

1 Stefan Schumacher (GER) Gerolsteiner 1h 03' 50"
2 Fabian Cancellara (SUI) Team CSC Saxo Bank + 21"
3 Kim Kirchen (LUX) Team Columbia + 1' 01"
4 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Garmin-Chipotle-H30 + 1' 05"
5 David Millar (GBR) Garmin-Chipotle-H30 + 1' 37"
6 Denis Menchov (RUS) Rabobank + 1' 55"
7 Cadel Evans (AUS) Silence-Lotto + 2' 05"
8 Sebastian Lang (GER) Gerolsteiner + 2' 19"
9 Bernhard Kohl (AUT) Gerolsteiner + 2' 21"
10 George Hincapie (USA) Team Columbia + 2' 28

same race

1 Stefan Schumacher (GER) Gerolsteiner 35' 44"
2 Kim Kirchen (LUX) Team Columbia + 18"
3 David Millar (GBR) Garmin-Chipotle-H30 + 18"
4 Cadel Evans (AUS) Silence-Lotto + 23"
5 Fabian Cancellara (SUI) Team CSC Saxo Bank + 33"
6 Denis Menchov (RUS) Rabobank + 34"
7 Jens Voigt (GER) Team CSC Saxo Bank + 35"
8 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Garmin-Chipotle-H30 + 37"
9 George Hincapie (USA) Team Columbia + 41"
10 Vincenzo Nibali (ITA) Liquigas + 47"


2010 Tour With wind problems

11 MENCHOV Denis RAB 03'51"
17. MILLAR David GRM 04'20"
33. VINOKOUROV Alexandre AST 05'32
35. CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto AST 05'43"
41. LEIPHEIMER Levi RSH 05'59"

2007 Vuelta
1. SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel EUS 22'11"
2. MENCHOV Denis RAB 12"
3. CLEMENT Stef BTL 14"
4. BARREDO LLAMAZALES Carlos QSI
5. GONZALEZ CAPILLA Santos KGZ
6. EVANS Cadel PRL 19"
7. MCCARTNEY Jason DSC 25"
8. KARPETS Vladimir GCE 26"
9. MONFORT Maxime COF 28"
10. HANSEN Adam TMO 34"

Very well done.

 

[trevim]

I was under the impression that Contador and Samu surrendered the Tour 2/3 of the way up the Galibier after the bad luck they had in the first week, then agreed to work together the next day to try for a prestigious stage win on the Alpe.

Rewatch the stage, when Evans starts to hit the "go pedal" AC and Samu start conferring as soon as they look uncomfortable.

That's a decent theory for sure. It just failed when Sanchez chased down Contador the day after

 

[ferryman]

Bookies set prices to balance books, not to say who they think will win. If they took money on Andy before the route, and don't want to take any more until the book expands, they won't lengthen his price.

Thank you for the lesson but I know how bookmakers work and you missed my point completely and you are wrong. Bookmakers change odds radically when circumstances of a race change radically. Andy's price has not altered one point but either has any of the others apart from Evans. Wot no money on Wiggans

 

[trevim]

How does Kern ITT anyone ?

and hows his knee ?

He was TT national champion this year beating Chavanel, Riblon, Roux, Coppel, Peraud, Champion, Lequatre..... So he can TT for sure. Oh and he won a MTF at Dauphine

 

[trevim]

Very well done.

Nothing more to add really. He's the best GT rider between Armstrong and Contador. And he still has it. I hope he gets to the Tour in "silent-killer" mode

 

[roundabout]

When Kern's 'knee' gets better he will be back to a rider he was before June 2011...

 

[Maxiton]

There are still too many unknowns to make a reasonable prediction about the winner. The parcours, if the leak is accurate, effectively rules out the specialist climbers with a moderate or worse TT. There are still too many climbs for the outright TT men who can't really climb. But there are big question marks over most of the riders who are not ruled out by the parcours.

Contador is the biggest favourite if he is there, as he is on just about any GT parcours, but there's a very real possibility that he'll be banned.

Evans is probably the next biggest favourite, but it has to be said that he isn't getting any younger. Next year, he's a year older while some of the others will still be improving or will still be solidly in their peak years.

Wiggins has to be in with some kind of shout on that parcours, but his team is going to be facing a lot of different pressures with Cavendish and also the Olympics limiting the support he can expect. And he'll be under a certain amount of pressure to perform at the Olympics himself. Also, he has sucked in GTs more often than he's performed.

Menchov is someone who should in theory be ranked with the previous two but he hasn't produced the necessary form for a long time now. And really, we don't know if he's still capable of it. He also has a record of throwing away time unnecessarily.

Samu Sanchez can time trial well enough to make the list of favourites but his advantage over the three riders above is his climbing, and this parcours goes a long way towards nullifying that.

Froome might not be there, might be working for Wiggins and might in any case be a flash in the pan.

Valverde is coming back from a ban and that has most often removed riders from GC consideration. There are also some other guys like Nibali or Kreuziger who the parcours won't rule out but who are probably too similar to better guys above in these conditions.

The chances are that some of these guys either won't be there or simply won't perform. My suspicion is that one of them will show up in form, with a strong team and will wallop everyone is the most boring Grand Tour in years. I'd love to see some relative no mark get a big lead through a breakaway and then try desperately to hold on, providing a bit of suspense, but that's probably too much to hope for.

I agree with pretty much the whole of this.

1. MENCHOV Denis RAB 86h03'11"
2 DI LUCA Danilo LPR 01.03
3. PELLIZOTTI Franco LIQ 01'59"
4. SASTRE CANDIL Carlos CTT 03'46"
5. BASSO Ivan

2010 Tour
1 Alberto Contador (ESP) Astana 91h 58' 48"
2 Andy Schleck (LUX) Team Saxo Bank +0' 39"
3 Denis Menchov (RUS) Rabobank +2' 01"
4 Samuel Sanchez (ESP) Euskaltel +3' 40"
5 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (BEL) Omega Pharma – Lotto +6' 54"
6 Robert Gesink (NED) Rabobank +9' 31"
7 Ryder Hesjedal (CAN) Garmin +10' 15"
8 Joaquim Rodríguez (ESP) Katusha +11' 37"
9 Roman Kreuziger (CZE) Liquigas +11' 54"
10 Chris Horner (USA) Team Radioshack +12' 02

2007 Vuelta

1 Denis Menchov RAB 80h 59' 07"
2 Carlos Sastre CSC + 3' 31"
3 Samuel Sánchez EUS + 3' 46"
4 Cadel Evans PRL + 3' 56"
5 Ezequiel Mosquera KGZ + 6' 34" N/A
6 Vladimir Efimkin GCE + 7' 07"
7 Vladimir Karpets GCE + 8' 09"
8 Igor Antón EUS + 8' 44"
9 Manuel Beltrán LIQ + 9' 38"
10 Carlos Barredo QSI + 10' 12"

Vuelta 2005
1 Roberto Heras Liberty Seguros 82h 22' 55"
2 Denis Menchov Rabobank 82h 27' 31"
3 Carlos Sastre Team CSC + 18"
4 Francisco Mancebo Illes Balears-Caisse d'Epargne + 1' 22"
5 Carlos García Quesada Comunitat Valenciana-Elche + 3' 30"
6 Rubén Plaza Comunitat Valenciana-Elche + 7' 00



Giro monster tt.

1. MENCHOV Denis RAB 1h34'29"
2. LEIPHEIMER Levi AST 20"
3. GARZELLI Stefano ASA 01'03"
4. BRAJKOVIC Janez AST 01'14"
5. PELLIZOTTI Franco LIQ 01'27"
6. WIGGINS Bradley GRM 01'59"
7. BOSISIO Gabriele LPR 02'04"
8. SERPA PEREZ Jose Rodolfo SDA
9. BRUSEGHIN Marzio LAM 02'17"
10. BASSO Ivan LIQ 02'17"
11. SASTRE CANDIL Carlos CTT 02'18"
12. ARMSTRONG Lance AST 02'26"
13. ROGERS Michael THR 02'46"

TT EVans had to win to become Tour winner.

1 Stefan Schumacher (GER) Gerolsteiner 1h 03' 50"
2 Fabian Cancellara (SUI) Team CSC Saxo Bank + 21"
3 Kim Kirchen (LUX) Team Columbia + 1' 01"
4 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Garmin-Chipotle-H30 + 1' 05"
5 David Millar (GBR) Garmin-Chipotle-H30 + 1' 37"
6 Denis Menchov (RUS) Rabobank + 1' 55"
7 Cadel Evans (AUS) Silence-Lotto + 2' 05"
8 Sebastian Lang (GER) Gerolsteiner + 2' 19"
9 Bernhard Kohl (AUT) Gerolsteiner + 2' 21"
10 George Hincapie (USA) Team Columbia + 2' 28

same race

1 Stefan Schumacher (GER) Gerolsteiner 35' 44"
2 Kim Kirchen (LUX) Team Columbia + 18"
3 David Millar (GBR) Garmin-Chipotle-H30 + 18"
4 Cadel Evans (AUS) Silence-Lotto + 23"
5 Fabian Cancellara (SUI) Team CSC Saxo Bank + 33"
6 Denis Menchov (RUS) Rabobank + 34"
7 Jens Voigt (GER) Team CSC Saxo Bank + 35"
8 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Garmin-Chipotle-H30 + 37"
9 George Hincapie (USA) Team Columbia + 41"
10 Vincenzo Nibali (ITA) Liquigas + 47"


2010 Tour With wind problems

11 MENCHOV Denis RAB 03'51"
17. MILLAR David GRM 04'20"
33. VINOKOUROV Alexandre AST 05'32
35. CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto AST 05'43"
41. LEIPHEIMER Levi RSH 05'59"

2007 Vuelta
1. SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel EUS 22'11"
2. MENCHOV Denis RAB 12"
3. CLEMENT Stef BTL 14"
4. BARREDO LLAMAZALES Carlos QSI
5. GONZALEZ CAPILLA Santos KGZ
6. EVANS Cadel PRL 19"
7. MCCARTNEY Jason DSC 25"
8. KARPETS Vladimir GCE 26"
9. MONFORT Maxime COF 28"
10. HANSEN Adam TMO 34"

Impressive research, Hitch. I don't think we could ever say that Denis Nikolayevich isn't a top flight rider, but I do think it's debatable whether he has already peaked in his career.

He's been a pro for the same amount of time as Evans (eleven years), but Evans is clearly at the peak of his prowess and the only question is how long he can stay there. Menchov, on the other hand, seems to have peaked in 2009, when he won the Giro quite convincingly. Also, back then he had a strong team - Rabobank - while next year that likely won't be the case.

Lastly, it must be pointed out that the Tour organization diverges from the Giro when it comes to attitudes towards preparation, which might very well be to Menchov's disadvantage. That might sound unfair, but that's the way it seems.

 

[just some guy]

He was TT national champion this year beating Chavanel, Riblon, Roux, Coppel, Peraud, Champion, Lequatre..... So he can TT for sure. Oh and he won a MTF at Dauphine

Yes I know he can climb that why I asked about his ITT.

Maybe a good pick for top frenchy

 

[greenedge]

I think Evans,Contador, Andy and Froome

I would have said Rolland as top Frenchy but too many ITT kms.

 

[barmaher]

I find it incredible that people are suggesting that Kloden has more of a chance than Schleck.

Are people giving too much weight to the parcours? Andy has been second in three wildly different Tours de France. He will have the benefit of new training methods and tactics, which have been shown to be beneficial.

Kloden will be 37, Schleck nearing his prime. It will be three years since Kloden lost by 2:30 to Andy in a Tour. Kloden didn't make much more than a minute in the Annecy 40km time trial.

Assuming they both race, if Bruynell were to put all his TdF eggs in the Kloden basket over Andy, he would need his head examined.

 

[Duartista]

I agree with pretty much the whole of this.



Impressive research, Hitch. I don't think we could ever say that Denis Nikolayevich isn't a top flight rider, but I do think it's debatable whether he has already peaked in his career.

He's been a pro for the same amount of time as Evans (eleven years), but Evans is clearly at the peak of his prowess and the only question is how long he can stay there. Menchov, on the other hand, seems to have peaked in 2009, when he won the Giro quite convincingly. Also, back then he had a strong team - Rabobank - while next year that likely won't be the case.

Lastly, it must be pointed out that the Tour organization diverges from the Giro when it comes to attitudes towards preparation, which might very well be to Menchov's disadvantage. That might sound unfair, but that's the way it seems.

1/ What influence do race organisers have on how riders prepare for their races?
2/ Menchov was far more impressive last time he rode the Tour than the last time he rode the Giro.

That said, it is true that his time trialing has been unimpressive this year, although his climbing in the last week of the Vuelta seemed close to his top level.

 

[jens_attacks]

if menchov can get near the 2009 giro form,he will be on the podium.but i'm sure he wants more,le tour being his only goal now after he won both giro and vuelta.
he was very impressive in vuelta's mountain stages,and let's keep in mind that he said he didn't do any high altitude training before it,nada.
he must come at 110% form if he wants to stand a chance to beat alberto.

 

[Maxiton]

1/ What influence do race organisers have on how riders prepare for their races?
2/ Menchov was far more impressive last time he rode the Tour than the last time he rode the Giro.

That said, it is true that his time trialing has been unimpressive this year, although his climbing in the last week of the Vuelta seemed close to his top level.

I was referring to arguably less tolerance in France and at the Tour for le dopage.

 

[Winterfold]

I was referring to arguably less tolerance in France and at the Tour for le dopage.

And the Vuelta too - I think a certain team will be less confused about who their GC leader is in 2012...

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Contador, Menchov, Wiggins or Evans imo... Don't think any of the other climbers can TT enough. Sammy can on a good day when he's feeling like it but that doesn't happen too often....