Tour de France 2011 STAGE 20 - Grenoble 42.5 km ITT

[goggalor]

One point on tomorrow versus stage 20 in 2008: Evans didn't lose 2 minutes to Andy on the Alpe d'Huez. He's been pretty much as strong as Andy in the mountains all Tour.

I'm still not confident he can do it though. It will be unbelievably close. But I hope he can, if only because this may his last chance, and he's fought with such grit to stay within reach. Andy has plenty of good Tours left in him.

 

[benpounder]

Yep. As far as I could see it's light rain the whole day. Wind should be a factor as well. That one is a bit harder to predict whether it's head, tail or cross.

As it is a circuit, it will be all three.

 

[benpounder]

Are the start times listed

http://www.letour.fr/2011/TDF/LIVE/us/2000/allChronos.html Two minute intervals starting ar 10:26 - Last twenty at 3:00 minutes apart - No splitting of teammates.

 

[the chicken from T]

prediction

1. Martin
2. EBH +24
3. Alberto +54
4. Coppel + 1.02
5. Fabian + 1.04
8. Cadel + 1.38
29. Andy +2.19
84. Frank + 4.58

 

[maltiv]

Always raining in the TTs, I hate it. It makes for a really unfair race and it doesn't show us who is the strongest, instead the good TTer with the best conditions wins.

I hope EBH will crush the competition tomorrow...for norway...

 

[El Pistolero]

I heard they're letting Andy Schleck start after Frank... Wow, Prudhomme can you be more blatant in who you want to win the Tour?

 

[luckyboy]

I can't see Andy putting 3 minutes into Frank

 

[El Pistolero]

I can't see Andy putting 3 minutes into Frank

Which won't be needed if they only want one guy on the podium... In yellow. He can just easily stroll by until Andy sees him and then up the pace a little. I'm not saying they're going to do this, but if they have a brain they would do it.

 

[benpounder]

B) You didn't recon the TT course. You saw it on TV. You are satisfied that you "have a clue."

Let's see, one of these things is not like the other. I mean, I know a lot of course recon is done by TV, and maybe that's OK during the regular season, but for the most important race of your life?

According to the official websites, the two ITT courses are different.

Dauphine:

TdF:

While I do find it a little surprising that Andy didn't recon, he will have gotten good info from his team. And who knows, maybe he felt it more important to scout some of the other routes.

Someone upthread mentioned that the 660m of climbing will not necessarily favor Andy, he isn't as negatively impacted had it been a flat course. It doesnt look too difficult interms of turns and curves, and I'm sure he with either ride or moto-scout it in the morning. It will be an anxious day for both Schleck and Evans.

 

[Iker_Baqueiro]

Just read a very dramatic and telling article in ABC Deportes, entitled "la mejor manera de perder" (the best way to lose). The first paragraph goes something like this:

"200 meters beyond the summit of the Alp d'Huez, Frank is looking for the Leopard bus. His brother Andy is the Tour's leader and he is second, 53 seconds down. Sounds good, but that is deceiving. Frank goes with his head down. Until he hears a familiar voice. His wife, with their child in arms. They do not talk. She notices immediatly. She hugs him. Frank goes crying on the fence. The child, who knows nothing, makes a funny face. His father and his uncle lead the GC, however they have just lost the tour to Evans (only 57 sec down) who is favored by the Grenoble ITT. Beautiful defeat, just as Contador's."

You think this actually happened ?

 

[BYOP88]

I hope tomorrow it rains then rains some more. I don't want anyone to crash but I want it to pi$$ down.

 

[benpounder]

Which won't be needed if they only want one guy on the podium... In yellow. He can just easily stroll by until Andy sees him and then up the pace a little. I'm not saying they're going to do this, but if they have a brain they would do it.

While it is expressly forbiden to draft (and pace), Frank could play a carrot at 100-150m for a while. I suspect the race jury is going to be paying very close attention should that scenerio come to pass. Also, it garantees Frank loses a podium position.

 

[El Pistolero]

While it is expressly forbiden to draft (and pace), Frank could play a carrot at 100-150m for a while. I suspect the race jury is going to be paying very close attention should that scenerio come to pass. Also, it garantees Frank loses a podium position.

They don't need to draft. It's been proven many times one can go faster if he sees a cyclist he can focus on.

 

[luckyboy]

Just read a very dramatic and telling article in ABC Deportes, entitled "la mejor manera de perder" (the best way to lose). The first paragraph goes something like this:

"200 meters beyond the summit of the Alp d'Huez, Frank is looking for the Leopard bus. His brother Andy is the Tour's leader and he is second, 53 seconds down. Sounds good, but that is deceiving. Frank goes with his head down. Until he hears a familiar voice. His wife, with their child in arms. They do not talk. She notices immediatly. She hugs him. Frank goes crying on the fence. The child, who knows nothing, makes a funny face. His father and his uncle lead the GC, however they have just lost the tour to Evans (only 57 sec down) who is favored by the Grenoble ITT. Beautiful defeat, just as Contador's."

You think this actually happened ?

I would cry if I had just lost the Tour.

 

[davestoller]

Which won't be needed if they only want one guy on the podium... In yellow. He can just easily stroll by until Andy sees him and then up the pace a little. I'm not saying they're going to do this, but if they have a brain they would do it.

I think the point is Andy will have to catch up to Frank by a good 2minutes 30 to even see him since they will depart 3 minutes apart, its 3 right?

To act as a carrot.

 

[benpounder]

Because I had the 2011 Dauphine website open, I checked the ITT results.

Cadel Evans +01' 20"
Rein Taaramae +01' 56"
Thomas Voeckler +03' 18"
Pierre Rolland +04' 53"

Rolland's time in white may be shorter than Schleck's, and is certainly more vunerable.

 

[luckyboy]

Frank Schleck is hardly the best carrot to chase in a TT anyway.

 

[Dedelou]

Yeah, don't know why. Cadel had no reason to work anyway though.

I can imagine that if he had to choose Andy rather be in front than behind on that climb.. So many things can happen on the way up.

 

[jobiwan]

I've got a feeling that Andy is either going to win by about a 20 second margin, or lose by a pretty big margin. If he gets 1 minute behind while still on the course, it would be a tough blow to take.

That said, I still think he can do it!!

AND PLEASE DON'T RAIN!

 

[jobiwan]

Another thing, do you want the times of your competitors in the Time Trial, or would you rather just ride your own race?

 

[BYOP88]

Frank Schleck is hardly the best carrot to chase in a TT anyway.

exactly, if I was going to be "paced" by someone in an ITT, I'd say anyone but Frank please!!! I hope Andy does get paced by Frank cos that way there wont be 2 Schlecks on the podium.

 

[El Pistolero]

MarkCavendish Mark Cavendish
88 guys in our 'groupetto' yesterday. That's over half the riders in the race finished outside the time-limit! Great ride by @andy_schleck.

He's an Andy fanboy Let's hate Cav moar

 

[slafkins]

Itt

Watch out for Peter Velits,

 

[rides like a girl]

I think Canc will win.

I hope AC crushes it and puts pressure on Frank. My heart would love to see AC get his stage win.

It will crush Andy and/or Cadel if they lose by a little. Too close for me to call, I don't follow either of them close enough to have an educated guess. Last TT i saw Andy do, he slipped his chain, so not sure what will happen. Either way this forum is going to explode and I most likely will just be a reader.

Last year the weather was worse for the late starters and it affected the times. If it rains, could be an interesting factor.

I am not sure I would want to know the times of the guy I am chasing or in front of, especially if I couldn't get my body to react. Perhaps just key times and data...not sure

 

[benpounder]

Because I had the 2011 Dauphine website open, I checked the ITT results.

Cadel Evans +01' 20"
Rein Taaramae +01' 56"
Thomas Voeckler +03' 18"
Pierre Rolland +04' 53"

Rolland's time in white may be shorter than Schleck's, and is certainly more vunerable.

I decided to check the Tour de Suisse for comproble numbers. I'd pay attention to Leipheimers' time. He was third at 00' 13" behind Cancellera, and 00' 04" behind Kloden. All three were clearly fit and motivated (but Levi and Andreas were building for the TdF.

Tom Danielson +00' 38"
Ryder Hesjedal +01' 57"
Damiano Cunego +02' 16"
Andy Schleck +02' 32" (and he was definitly just training for the TdF)
Frank Schleck +03' 06"

I point this out because I think we can use Levi's time as a good indicator the where Cadel will be (+/- 00' 20" I'd guess, more likely better), and hence able to anticipate the others time deltas.