Tour de France 2011 STAGE 20 - Grenoble 42.5 km ITT

[auscyclefan94]

Just some more interesting statisitcs.

2007 Final time trial: He needed to bring back 2.17 seconds per km.
2008 Final time trial: He needed to bring back 1.79 seconds per km.
2011 Final time trial: He needs to bring back 1.36 seconds per km.

 

[its like that]

You will have nothing to worry about after Stage 20, auscyclefan94

 

[DenisMenchov]

Just some more interesting statisitcs.

2007 Final time trial: He needed to bring back 2.17 seconds per km.
2008 Final time trial: He needed to bring back 1.79 seconds per km.
2011 Final time trial: He needs to bring back 1.36 seconds per km.

This is exactly the same what I ve done in last years Tour calculating how much time does Denis needs.

Hope it turns out better for you than it did to me.

GO EVANS

 

[LukeSchmid]

Back of the envelope:

Looking at the 2009 TT in Annecy @ 40.5k w/ 205m ascent:
Andy @ +0:01:45 (on form)
Cadel @ +0:01:14 (questionable form)

The 2011 TT @ 42.5k w/ 558m ascent. Evans is certainly stronger this year. So give him +1m. But there is more climbing here, so maybe knock off 20s from Cadel to give Andy. Andy has presumably improved his TT a bit so give him another 10s. So +61s for Evans.

Too close to call!

You do realise that in 2009 Evans was the quickest on the climb, faster than everybody else including Contador. He lost 1:26 on Contador and 44 seconds on Andy in the first 18 kilometers, the flatest section of the course. Evans then gained 37 seconds on Andy in the second section including the climb. Andy actually went out very hard, he was equal 9th with David Millar, Bert Grabsch and Gustav Larsson at the first time check.

 

[Ferminal]

Having a climb in the middle of these longer time trials suits Cadel more than Andy.

Evans results haven't varied much whether they are pan flat or have a climb.

But most importantly, going uphill means going downhill.

The descent on the Dauphine was not straight forward, and we can guess that it's what cost Wiggins his time.

If there's moisture around again it will be tricky, and the risk taker may prevail (or fail spectacularly). If Evans takes a few risks he could put huge time into Andy the descent, with better skills but also acceleration.

All this talk of Andy's "improved time trialing", is just talk, I'm not sure where it is coming from - Leopard press releases? If he does a good time trial today we can say he's improved, but there is nothing in his results which suggest improvement since 2007.

Still think it's too close to call either way. If you sent them to a Worlds/Olympic ITT Evans would make the time over 95 out of 100 runs, but at the end of a brutal GT, with all the fatigue but also pressure, who knows.

 

[auscyclefan94]

You will have nothing to worry about after Stage 20, auscyclefan94

Haha, hope so.

Ferminal, on your point about the descent, the first descent is rather straight forward, it is the 2nd that is quite technical.

 

[LukeSchmid]

I think my calculations were wrong about how well Evans needs to go to beat Andy at each time check so I will post it again


VIZILLE (15km) Needs to be 20.47 seconds at first time check
Saint-Martin-D'Uriage (27.5km) He needs to be 37.5 seconds faster
Gieres (35.5km) Needs to be 48.4 seconds faster.

In the last couple of years Andy has gone out very hard and faded towards the end so I doubt Evans will gain as much time as needed at the first time check.

 

[auscyclefan94]

In the last couple of years Andy has gone out very hard and faded towards the end so I doubt Evans will gain as much time as needed at the first time check.

Agreed, Evans also doesn't start as well as others in TT's but finishes very strongly. You need to save a bit for that final climb and gradual descent back dow into Grenoble.

 

[blaxland]

On paper and reading past results Cadel should Smash Andy and Frank,but being the end of 3 weeks racing?I think for Cadel to win the overall he needs to pull back most of his time on Andy in the first half of the TT,putting extra pressure on the non Timetrial specialist.This is his last chance...Go Aussie Go....

 

[Ferminal]

Haha, hope so.

Ferminal, on your point about the descent, the first descent is rather straight forward, it is the 2nd that is quite technical.

Yes.

After conceding 40s on each of the first two segments to Wiggins in the Dauphine, Evans took back 11s from the top of the climb to the finish.

 

[Wergeland]

It will be very close, but I have a gut feeling that Andy will take this. Unfortunately.

I would like to see Evans win this.

 

[sportzchick]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/t...rance-time-trial/story-fn8s9i81-1226100161231

I found this artical on the herald sun website by Patrick Jonker about TT and why he things Cadel will do well in it.....its a good read actually

 

[BYOP88]

Im going to pic Cadel for yellow in Paris (rain, better TT ability and has ridden the course)

Cance for the win today

both are deserving winners though - so will be ok with whichever of them wins.

And I cant beleive they are letting Frank ride in front of Andy.

Relax it's Frank ahead of him not Cancellara.

 

[dlwssonic]

Just some more interesting statisitcs.

2007 Final time trial: He needed to bring back 2.17 seconds per km.
2008 Final time trial: He needed to bring back 1.79 seconds per km.
2011 Final time trial: He needs to bring back 1.36 seconds per km.

He can do it!!
even schlecks dad thinks so!!
come on cadel, its now or never.

 

[The Hitch]

Sorry about turning you off Evans.

Nah ACF its not you. Maybe a year ago, but like i said all year your a way better poster now. Well not so much during the Tour, you were a bit unfair on Sanchez at times but still, Ill be happy for you if Cuddles does it.

who cares - if he soft enough not to like rider becaue he has an issue another faceless forumer well thats not anyone elses problem...

Well one Cadel fanboy told me i should quote "choke and die" when I said Evans doesnt attack much, so soft as I may be, those are some pretty hard wacks.

 

[dlwssonic]

Really its raining? Big disadvantage to andy, we know how sucky he is on wet descents.

 

[sportzchick]

Its interesting - Andy starts well but fades whereas Cadel starts slowish and has a big back end of the TT

Which one will be better???? Really we wont know untill they start

 

[greenedge]

It's going to be so good
Evans Vs Shleck.
Rolland Vs Taaramae.
Cancellara Vs Martin.

 

[The Hitch]

Really its raining? Big disadvantage to andy, we know how sucky he is on wet descents.

The Tour is at stake going into the final tt. Andy descended like a champ on thursday, i think he could do some good descending today.

 

[dlwssonic]

The Tour is at stake going into the final tt. Andy descended like a champ on thursday, i think he could do some good descending today.

but it must surely be advantage to cadel, he will also descend with his heart out.

 

[jobiwan]

I think that Cadel will win, no I think Andy will hold on, Cadel, Andy, Cadel, Andy...

I HAVE NO IDEA!!!

Go Andy! He can do it, but it's gonna be close either way!

 

[washoezephyr1]

What happens on Sunday, if Cadel and Andy are like 5 seconds or less on GC after the TT? The team battle on Sunday, will go to the line!

 

[wirral]

Following the tragic events in Norway, I don't think EBH will have 100% focus today.

 

[leon993]

There will be interesting small matches. E.g. Bertie will do anything to catch Samu as fast as possible, to repay him for yesterday.

 

[The Hitch]

I think that Cadel will win, no I think Andy will hold on, Cadel, Andy, Cadel, Andy...

I HAVE NO IDEA!!!

Go Andy! He can do it, but it's gonna be close either way!

2 big things in Andy's favour

1 Cadel never got the time on Sastre.
2 Andy is very very confident.

Other than that logic says Cadel.

but it must surely be advantage to cadel, he will also descend with his heart out.

Descents favour Cadel time wise, but their existance helps ANdy in a way because it lets him rest up between climbs, go harder on the climbs - his advantage.

If their wet and Andrew isnt scared then the rain doesnt neccesarily favour Cadel.

How it helps Cadel though is that it makes the times slightly slower. The slower the times the more time Cadel has to put vital seconds into Andy.