Tour de France 2011 STAGE 20 - Grenoble 42.5 km ITT

[luckyboy]

Andy may have softpedalled every race this season, but I would think that he would've tried his best in the Suisse TT. Gotta have some way to judge how this TT training he has been doing actually works out.

 

[fuggles]

I guess that's one of the advantages of not actually racing anything leading to the TdF?

Nobody actually knows what you can do.

 

[fuggles]

I decided to check the Tour de Suisse for comproble numbers. I'd pay attention to Leipheimers' time. He was third at 00' 13" behind Cancellera, and 00' 04" behind Kloden. All three were clearly fit and motivated (but Levi and Andreas were building for the TdF.

Tom Danielson +00' 38"
Ryder Hesjedal +01' 57"
Damiano Cunego +02' 16"
Andy Schleck +02' 32" (and he was definitly just training for the TdF)
Frank Schleck +03' 06"

I point this out because I think we can use Levi's time as a good indicator the where Cadel will be (+/- 00' 20" I'd guess, more likely better), and hence able to anticipate the others time deltas.

And the TdS TT was 32km, along with a few lumps as well. At the same time Cadel was doing the Dauphine, so if Andy improved a bit since then so did Cadel (all things being equal).

 

[skidmark]

In the 'I'm only mentioning this because I'm interested in every battle' category, Tommy D needs 2:31 on Basso for 8th place. I believe it's possible, and even likely.

Cunego's 5th should become 7th, Voeckler's 4th should become 6th...

 

[sportzchick]

Im bit perplext with the order - Isnt there a rule where they split team mates in the TT if they are starting behind them? I was going to ask since frank is a terrible TTer would it be better for Cadel to pass him on the road early on. Ive got NFI on Voeckler's TT ability.

Another question - Are the 2 hills big enough for Cadel to get any advantage on the decent or is it much too small for any impact...if it is slippery out there Cadl would be less 'conserned' then Andy.

Im thinking more of a pshycological(sp???) if it is damp and cadel starts passing riders on the road (realistally probally only Voeckler) would that 'spook' Andy more?

 

[benpounder]

And the TdS TT was 32km, along with a few lumps as well. At the same time Cadel was doing the Dauphine, so if Andy improved a bit since then so did Cadel (all things being equal).

No question!

I'm just searching for data that I feel confident for using as "on road" analysis. Based upon extrapolating previous results, I think Cadel is going to win by 38 seconds.

But, I also think Andy could have the TT of his life and squeek it out by less than 10. My metric, well one of them, is watching what Levi's splits are, for he starts well before Cadel and Andy, and when both Levi and Cadel are motivated, they are darn close in time trials.

And I think Levi is going to be "on".

(not predicting a win, just to judge Cadel's ride).

 

[BillytheKid]

Im bit perplext with the order - Isnt there a rule where they split team mates in the TT if they are starting behind them? I was going to ask since frank is a terrible TTer would it be better for Cadel to pass him on the road early on. Ive got NFI on Voeckler's TT ability.

Another question - Are the 2 hills big enough for Cadel to get any advantage on the decent or is it much too small for any impact...if it is slippery out there Cadl would be less 'conserned' then Andy.

Im thinking more of a pshycological(sp???) if it is damp and cadel starts passing riders on the road (realistally probally only Voeckler) would that 'spook' Andy more?

Voekler was a full 3:18 off the winning time of Tony Martin in the Dauphine and 1:58 behind Cadel. Evans is the only GC hopeful to have ridden this course which is identical to what they rode in the Dauphine. I think that is a huge advantage with the one he's already got. Cadel should win the Tour! But after three weeks who knows?

 

[BillytheKid]

No question!

I'm just searching for data that I feel confident for using as "on road" analysis. Based upon extrapolating previous results, I think Cadel is going to win by 38 seconds.

But, I also think Andy could have the TT of his life and squeek it out by less than 10. My metric, well one of them, is watching what Levi's splits are, for he starts well before Cadel and Andy, and when both Levi and Cadel are motivated, they are darn close in time trials.

And I think Levi is going to be "on".

(not predicting a win, just to judge Cadel's ride).

I'm sure you data is good, but my money's on Edvald Boasson Hagen (third in the Dauphine :32 behind Wiggins), but then again you might be right about Levi.

 

[Handbrake]

I think Andy will win by 10 seconds but I hope Evans can pull it off. Evans may go out too hard early trying to make up the 57 seconds. Bookies have Evans at $1.50 and Schleck at $2.40. Surely it should be closer than that?

 

[ChopperArris]

I think Andy will win by 10 seconds but I hope Evans can pull it off. Evans may go out too hard early trying to make up the 57 seconds.

I think if anyone makes a critical miscalculation, it'll be Andy...

May the best man win, at the end of the day, because they will have been.

 

[benpounder]

I'm sure you data is good, but my money's on Edvald Boasson Hagen (third in the Dauphine :32 behind Wiggins), but then again you might be right about Levi.

I'm looking at the GC race. Cancellera is going to crush it tomorrow/today/this evening/yesterday. Martin is going to be a distant second.

Levi/Evans/Danielson to be 7-12.

The question is where Andy fits in...

And Rein and Pierre...

 

[fuggles]

Back of the envelope:

Looking at the 2009 TT in Annecy @ 40.5k w/ 205m ascent:
Andy @ +0:01:45 (on form)
Cadel @ +0:01:14 (questionable form)

The 2011 TT @ 42.5k w/ 558m ascent. Evans is certainly stronger this year. So give him +1m. But there is more climbing here, so maybe knock off 20s from Cadel to give Andy. Andy has presumably improved his TT a bit so give him another 10s. So +61s for Evans.

Too close to call!

 

[AussieGoddess]

Im going to pic Cadel for yellow in Paris (rain, better TT ability and has ridden the course)

Cance for the win today

both are deserving winners though - so will be ok with whichever of them wins.

And I cant beleive they are letting Frank ride in front of Andy.

 

[The Hitch]

Hows this for a prediction.

The race gets decided by a mechanical.

One of them will get a mechanical and lose the race.

Or what if both of them get mechanicals at some point. That would be epic. Frank still wouldnt win but would create some great tv.

 

[fuggles]

Hows this for a prediction.

The race gets decided by a mechanical.

One of them will get a mechanical and lose the race.

Or what if both of them get mechanicals at some point. That would be epic. Frank still wouldnt win but would create some great tv.

Or: Cadel gets the sweats over '08 and he goes nuts on a slick road and wipes out.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Yep. As far as I could see it's light rain the whole day. Wind should be a factor as well. That one is a bit harder to predict whether it's head, tail or cross.

Wind may be a factor but it is an out-and-back course. Theout part to the first time check is rather straight long drags. What winds would Evans want on that part of the course?

Looks like we might well have another throw of the dice:
http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail/FRXX0153?dayNum=1
Same as for the Dauphine, it seems.
Who gets a wet descent..................loses.

They are going 6 mins after each other. I don't think the tdf will be decided on that.

2008 Post-Stage 19 GC:

Carlos Sastre: 82 h 54 m 36 s
Cadel Evans: +1'34"

2008 Post-Stage 20 (52 km ITT):

Carlos Sastre: 84 h 1 m 0 s
Cadel Evans: +1'05"

Only 29 seconds in a longer, flatter time trial.
ANDY HAS A CHANCE!!! GO ANDY!

you going to judge Evans on the 20008 TT, being an Andy Schleck fan I don't think that is a good idea.

Nah i dont want Andy to win. Well i would be happy with whoever. I tend to support guys that are older, for whom it is a last chance over guys like Andy who are young and will get their win some day.

I also would like to see Cuddles get a good reception in Australia.

Its the Cadel fanboys that put me off Cadel during the stages. But whoever wins ill be happy for them.

Cadel is getting lots of reception in Aus. Therewas5 pages on him in the apper this morning. They have also had a fair bit on him in the past week.

Sorry about turning you off Evans.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I'm thinking Cadel is going to just be able to pull it off. I think Andy is just a little bit more tired, even though wearing the maillot jaune may help alleviate that. I also think having Frank like a carrot in front of Cadel is going to help, as he may actually be able to catch him. I also think in the back of Cadel's mind he has to know this is his last chance to win the Tour and he has to give the ride of his life.

A big part of me would like to see Contador ride well enough to make the podium, he certainly deserves it with his riding this past week.

Someone else may win the stage, Cadel may win the Tour by a few seconds.

 

[fuggles]

I'm thinking Cadel is going to just be able to pull it off. I think Andy is just a little bit more tired, even though wearing the maillot jaune may help alleviate that. I also think having Frank like a carrot in front of Cadel is going to help, as he may actually be able to catch him. I also think in the back of Cadel's mind he has to know this is his last chance to win the Tour and he has to give the ride of his life.

A big part of me would like to see Contador ride well enough to make the podium, he certainly deserves it with his riding this past week.

Someone else may win the stage, Cadel may win the Tour by a few seconds.

From what I've been reading the order is Cadel->Frank->Andy. They are not switching Cadel and Frank up.

 

[Cycloid]

The conditions and the time scenario remind me of "that American" and Jan a few years ago. Jan going full-bore trying to get back time, taking risks and crashing at the roundabout. Lance was able to be more conservative knowing he had time up his sleeve.
Like then, I am cheering for the rider not in the MJ. Lets hope this one pans out better - I think Cadel deserves it (not that Ullrich didn't).
The similarities are scary. Lets hope its not a case of dejavu, the roads dry up and it all comes down to the best rider on the day, nothing else.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think my calculations were wrong about how well Evans needs to go to beat Andy at each time check so I will post it again


VIZILLE (15km) Needs to be 20.47 seconds at first time check
Saint-Martin-D'Uriage (27.5km) He needs to be 37.5 seconds faster
Gieres (35.5km) Needs to be 48.4 seconds faster.

 

[biopass]

My prediction.

Both Evans and Andy will ride fast TT´s, wich will see Andy leading Evans by 2 seconds.

At Champs-Elysses BMC will make it epic and Evans will make a Vino and fool everyone with a 3 second stage win and 1 second overall victory.

 

[sportzchick]

Wind may be a factor but it is an out-and-back course. Theout part to the first time check is rather straight long drags. What winds would Evans want on that part of the course?


They are going 6 mins after each other. I don't think the tdf will be decided on that.

you going to judge Evans on the 20008 TT, being an Andy Schleck fan I don't think that is a good idea.


Cadel is getting lots of reception in Aus. Therewas5 pages on him in the apper this morning. They have also had a fair bit on him in the past week.

Sorry about turning you off Evans.

who cares - if he soft enough not to like rider becaue he has an issue another faceless forumer well thats not anyone elses problem....everyone will find excuses to justify how they feel, thats the way of the world.

I wouldnt care if AC/AS had the nicest fans in the world - wont change how I feel....i dont like either of them and probally like AC less out of the pair...but good on them for making it a great tour!

 

[mewmewmew13]

I think my calculations were wrong about how well Evans needs to go to beat Andy at each time check so I will post it again


VIZILLE (15km) Needs to be 20.47 seconds at first time check
Saint-Martin-D'Uriage (27.5km) He needs to be 37.5 seconds faster
Gieres (35.5km) Needs to be 48.4 seconds faster.

Are you nervous ACF????
I don't know if I can open my eyes when they are riding at the finish tomorrow!!
eeek!
btw I like your new sig line

 

[auscyclefan94]

Are you nervous ACF????
I don't know if I can open my eyes when they are riding at the finish tomorrow!!
eeek!
btw I like your new sig line

I was nervous on the early sloopes of the Galibier. I thought he was losing the tour de france tbh. He just went crazy on the galibier.

I will start feeling nervous once cadel's start time nears. I am going to plan some things to do to keep my mind preoccupied before the coverage starts.

 

[Tuarts]

57 is a huge lead and its likely Andy will win, he'll pull a good TT out of his **** but Cadel has ridden the best TDF I've seen him ride, he's looked one of the strongest and he has ridden this course before. If there's a time that you'd think Cadel could pull back that much of a lead, its this TT now. Good luck to him, it will really will be who has any energy left.