Tour de France 2015 Stage 9: Vannes-Plumelec 28 km TTT

[Miburo]

29 km isn't that long but a pretty hard parcours for a TTT. If you're only with 5 on that last hill and your 5th guy is cooked you're in serious trouble.

Luckely the most important GC contenders still have 9 riders (poor purito though). Big favorites imo are BMC, Tinkoff and Sky. Not sure about movistar and astana

 

[dacooley]

astana, saxo, bmc and sky to finish within '20. movistar +40', katusha '1'30

 

[TheGreenMonkey]

Uran will suffer without Martin and not have the greatest team for the final climb.

 

[bajbar]

LOL at the bookmakers. Tinkoff same odds as Lotto-NL. 22:1 ...

My prediction:

1. BMC
2. Tinkoff
3. Sky

 

[SeriousSam]

BMC #1. Not sure how the others are going to do. The ideal scenario would be for Astana and Movistar to gain at least a minute on Tinkov and Sky, to make things closer again between the Big 4.

It's not very satisfying to have something like stage 2 to have such a huge bearing on the general classification, and the same is true for a TTT, so if they somehow cancel each other, I'd be ecstatic.

 

[Pantani Attacks]

BMC will not be first

 

[Miburo]

Re:

BMC #1. Not sure how the others are going to do. The ideal scenario would be for Astana and Movistar to gain at least a minute on Tinkov and Sky, to make things closer again between the Big 4.

It's not very satisfying to have something like stage 2 to have such a huge bearing on the general classification, and the same is true for a TTT, so if they somehow cancel each other, I'd be ecstatic.

Why? Quintana was positioned poorly in stage 2 with his team, his own fault.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Id have said Orica and Etixx would have been favourites but both have had their chances gone, Etixx losing Tony and Orica being decimated by injuries.

I think BMC will either win or be very close to it. I have a feeling Tinkoff will just beat Sky, maybe by just a few seconds.

 

[rm7]

Re:

BMC #1. Not sure how the others are going to do. The ideal scenario would be for Astana and Movistar to gain at least a minute on Tinkov and Sky, to make things closer again between the Big 4.

It's not very satisfying to have something like stage 2 to have such a huge bearing on the general classification, and the same is true for a TTT, so if they somehow cancel each other, I'd be ecstatic.

You're the type that think ONLY the mountain stages should be decisive for a GT win or am I misunderstanding something? I really like the new kind of TdF where the winner should be good at a lot of things, but of course the mountains will always be most important.

 

[Flamin]

What's Plumence?

1 BMC
2 Movistar
3 Tinkoff
4 Sky

 

[the sceptic]

Froome might do a Lance and blow up Sky on that first hill.

 

[sir fly]

The organizers deserve a praise for this ttt - rest day set up.
The road logistics can already head south, and the riders will have free morning tomorrow, besides the rest day on the Monday.
Although it's a long transfer, they should be well recovered for the Tuesday.

BMC should do the best of GC contenders' teams, SKY and Tinkoff very close, Movistar slightly behind together with Katusha.
Astana is a mystery, but somewhere between BMC, SKY, Tinkoff and Movistar, Katusha, should be their place.
Won't be good for the race if the sextet will be packed in more than a minute.

 

[BigMac]

Re:

Froome might do a Lance and blow up Sky on that first hill.

It was funny how the rest were struggling to keep up in the Dauphiné. Bad signs for them if it happens again tomorrow.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

BMC #1. Not sure how the others are going to do. The ideal scenario would be for Astana and Movistar to gain at least a minute on Tinkov and Sky, to make things closer again between the Big 4.

It's not very satisfying to have something like stage 2 to have such a huge bearing on the general classification, and the same is true for a TTT, so if they somehow cancel each other, I'd be ecstatic.

You're the type that think ONLY the mountain stages should be decisive for a GT win or am I misunderstanding something? I really like the new kind of TdF where the winner should be good at a lot of things, but of course the mountains will always be most important.

ITTs too. If only this stage was an ITT.

If there was a very strong relation between some individual characteristic and gaining/losing time in something like stage 2 (or a TTT), I'd agree. I don't see convincing evidence of that being the case.

When the individual gets all the spoils for a Tour victory as is currently the case, I'd like individual characteristics to be decisive.

 

[staubsauger]

Sky hasnt done that many good ttt's recently, so normally I wouldn't have expected them to be in the mix.

 

[Iker_Baqueiro]

Re:

BMC #1. Not sure how the others are going to do. The ideal scenario would be for Astana and Movistar to gain at least a minute on Tinkov and Sky, to make things closer again between the Big 4.

It's not very satisfying to have something like stage 2 to have such a huge bearing on the general classification, and the same is true for a TTT, so if they somehow cancel each other, I'd be ecstatic.

I disagree. In cycling, as in life, the mistakes, confusions, doubts and excuses of some are the successes of others.

 

[del1962]

Re: Re:

Froome might do a Lance and blow up Sky on that first hill.

It was funny how the rest were struggling to keep up in the Dauphiné. Bad signs for them if it happens again tomorrow.

Sky have three new riders since Dauphinine, all stronger than the two replaced, on the final climb it will be G, Porte, Konig, Froome, Kennaugh and Poels, I think that other than G and Chris they heve saved energy over the last few days, main work by Roche on the front.

 

[Carols]

BMC will do well enough for Tejay to take Yellow!!!!

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

LOL at the bookmakers. Tinkoff same odds as Lotto-NL. 22:1 ...

My prediction:

1. BMC
2. Tinkoff
3. Sky

Good value for an e/w!

 

[BigMac]

Re: Re:

Froome might do a Lance and blow up Sky on that first hill.

It was funny how the rest were struggling to keep up in the Dauphiné. Bad signs for them if it happens again tomorrow.

Sky have three new riders since Dauphinine, all stronger than the two replaced, on the final climb it will be G, Porte, Konig, Froome, Kennaugh and Poels, I think that other than G and Chris they heve saved energy over the last few days, main work by Roche on the front.

Yes, it's highly unlikely.

 

[LaFlorecita]

1 BMC
2 Tinkoff-Saxo
3 Sky

I think Froome might blow up Sky esp on that last hill would be funny

 

[Gigs_98]

1. Sky
2. BMC
3. IAM (maybe a little bit bold but I have a feeling they will do quite well)

 

[Gigs_98]

1 BMC
2 Tinkoff-Saxo
3 Sky

I think Froome might blow up Sky esp on that last hill would be funny

And we would have a great sky tactics thread to discuss that

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

astana, saxo, bmc and sky to finish within '20. movistar +40', katusha '1'30

I think the gaps will be bigger.... in the Giro TTT the gap between 1st and 4th was 19", and that TTT was 1. on the first day, 2. shorter, 3. flat. This TTT is way more selective IMO.

 

[dacooley]

1 BMC
2 Tinkoff-Saxo
3 Sky

I think Froome might blow up Sky esp on that last hill would be funny

And we would have a great sky tactics thread to discuss that

im afraid we'll get a new thread about that