Tour de France 2015 Stage 9: Vannes-Plumelec 28 km TTT

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

Froome will have to be careful who to mark.

I doubt he will mark anyone, I'd bet he is the first of the big 4 to attack on Tuesday.

I think we'll see a classic Sky train launchpad on Tuesday. They just want to kill this off.

Whether someone else jumps before Froome or not is something we'll have to wait and see. That might honestly be the best way to disrupt them.

They hit a 2km section with 9%-10% average gradient with 12km to go and then 3kms at 9.5-10.5 with 8km to go. Hard to think of train not derailling there with everyone in survival mode, watching each other and waiting for the last km attack.

 

[Richeypen]

Re:

I think we are in for some great racing the next weeks. Nibali, Quintana, Uran and Conta will all need to attack. TG will try all to stay there.

Chapeau to Roche, he left it all out there for the team.

This. He was in a world of hurt at the end but hung on. It cost them the win but had he dropped things would have been way way worse.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

Froome will have to be careful who to mark.

I doubt he will mark anyone, I'd bet he is the first of the big 4 to attack on Tuesday.

What if Quintana goes from far out?
When Froome should respond?
An immediate answer could cost him. The rest could benefit.

If he has team mates with him he will ride tempo. If not je will try to cover NQ (or any other big 4)himself
However PSM is the first real climb of he tour coming in the first real mountain stage and it's not suitable for attacks from the base of the climb. No top gun will attack from the base of the climb IMO, but I hope I'm wrong

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Froome will have to be careful who to mark.

I doubt he will mark anyone, I'd bet he is the first of the big 4 to attack on Tuesday.

I think we'll see a classic Sky train launchpad on Tuesday. They just want to kill this off.

Whether someone else jumps before Froome or not is something we'll have to wait and see. That might honestly be the best way to disrupt them.

I think Romandie showed that with little support, Froome doing his yo-yo-ing stem staring act is still effective at stopping any attacks from Quintana. He has clearly worked on that tactic since the Vuelta. However the Dauphine showed with a better team he can still do the Skytrain stuff like 2013 Tour. But he does still lack much evidence of the ability to chaange the plan and improvise when someone attacks.

 

[TMP402]

Froome has attacked from far out. He put a minute into Nibali when he attacked from 25km in Romandie last year. Lots of it was flat, but still.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

Froome will have to be careful who to mark.

I doubt he will mark anyone, I'd bet he is the first of the big 4 to attack on Tuesday.

I think we'll see a classic Sky train launchpad on Tuesday. They just want to kill this off.

Whether someone else jumps before Froome or not is something we'll have to wait and see. That might honestly be the best way to disrupt them.

I think Romandie showed that with little support, Froome doing his yo-yo-ing stem staring act is still effective at stopping any attacks from Quintana. He has clearly worked on that tactic since the Vuelta. However the Dauphine showed with a better team he can still do the Skytrain stuff like 2013 Tour. But he does still lack much evidence of the ability to chaange the plan and improvise when someone attacks.[/quote
well, there's no much room for improvisation on mountain top finish..

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

Froome will have to be careful who to mark.

I doubt he will mark anyone, I'd bet he is the first of the big 4 to attack on Tuesday.

What if Quintana goes from far out?
When Froome should respond?
An immediate answer could cost him. The rest could benefit.

If he has team mates with him he will ride tempo. If not je will try to cover NQ (or any other big 4)himself
However PSM is the first real climb of he tour coming in the first real mountain stage and it's not suitable for attacks from the base of the climb. No top gun will attack from the base of the climb IMO, but I hope I'm wrong

It's not a bad climb itself for an attack, but being the first really big in the race might kill the racing, true.
The gaps are significant already, though. The sooner you try, sooner you'll know what to race for.

 

[Ramira]

Re: Re:

One rest day and he will glue himself to Froome's wheel until 2Km to go, until he does what he did at the Vuelta.

I wonder why everyone always assumes CoNtador benefits disproportionally from rest days...?

Because all things being equal he has better recovery than any other GC rider currently in the peloton.

Does he really? I know he's the most consistent and successful GC rider since he who should not be named, but is his recovery anything special?

In the Giro he was not even in the top 5 strongest riders on the final stage. Now this could have been because his peak was already gone so he could peak for the TDF, but still it has some meaning.

Back in 2011 he seemed easily in control, only to struggle to hang onto Schleck and almost losing time to him in the TT, a discipline he should have crushed him in.

In many of his other Giro/TDF wins he wasn't even close to being challenged in the final week, having already won the GC by then.

The only GT he's every shown a great last week was the Vuelta, but that's a different animal. It's after a long season, where most riders already have a GT in their legs, and his last two wins came after a suspension or an aborted TDF, meaning he was still coming into form at the start of the Vuelta, forcing him to get better later on, and having a lot less wear and tear from training and racing in his legs.

All in all I don't believe Contador is anything special when it comes to recovery. He's an exceptional climber and a solid time trialist, who's great in hilly time trials. But if you want someone with great recovery look at Hesjedal, who was great this Giro, and won his only GT in the last week as well.

Yes really. And I disagree with your views here. Looking at the 2015 Giro, in isolation is simply wrong in light of his 2015 goals. He's at the 2015 TdF and looking solid for a podium position. Not sure how you conclude Hesjedal has great recovery. He finished 10'41 back on Contador at the Giro. Three weeks later he lost the Route du Sud to Contador. He was 35' down on GC going in to today's stage. Yes, I can see how you conclude he has better recovery than Contador.

You say I look at the 2015 Giro in isolation, while I offer at least 1 more example, which you completely ignore.

You also don't actually give any counter example.

And I'm pretty sure you realise I meant recovery within a race, not between races. Hesjedal was better than Contador in the final few stages of the Giro, even though he was nowhere near him early on. And when he beat Rodriguez to win the Giro he did it in the final week as well.

We have absolutely zero idea what Hesjedal did betweent he Giro and now, so it could have a dozen reasons, none of which have any relation to in race recovery.

Point me to any GT where Contador wasn't the best in the first few mountain stages but was in the final week (outside of the 2 Vuelta's where he started with no racing in his legs) and I might believe you.

For example:
2007 TDF: When Rasmussen got pulled he had 1:53 on Evans, he ended with 23 seconds, lost 1 minute 30 from stage 17 on.

2008 Giro: Took the Pink in stage 15, was 33 ahead of Ricco, and 1 minute 18 ahead of Bruseghin. They were 4 seconds and 2 minutes behind him respectively before the TT, which admittedly he crushed. Yet not exactly a display of final week climbing dominance.

2008 Vuelta: Took the gold jersey in stage 13, 1 minute 7 ahead of Leipheimer, ended 46 seconds ahead. Losing 21 seconds in that final week.

2009 TDF: Took the yellow in stage 15, was 2'26" ahead of Andy Schleck. Until the ITT it stayed at 2'26, there he jumped till 4'11" so he took 0 seconds to Andy in that final week.

2010 TDF: Took the yellow by 8 seconds in stage 15, 8 seconds ahead of Andy. Then was unable to take any more time till the ITT, where he took 31 seconds, by far the least he ever took on Andy Schlek in a TT.

2011 Giro: Was never threatened.

2012 Vuelta: Came back from suspension, so had no racing in his legs and was 100% fresh. Was behind Rodriguez early on, took the lead in Fuente de, then proceeded to lose 44 seconds to Rodriguez and 36 seconds to Valverde in the final stages. Even here he wasn't the best in the last week.

2013 TDF: After stage 13 he was 3rd, 2' 45" behind. In the end he was 4th 7' 10" behind. 2' 7" behind Quintana and 1' 23" behind Rodriguez. He had 2' 38" on Quintana and 3' 03" on Rodrigues, so he lost more than 4 minutes to both in his final week or so.

2014 Vuelta: He came back from injury, so no normal prep. Yet he was already leader by stage 10. He was 1' 18" ahead of Froome at that time (which was 1' 39" by stage 16). He ended up only 1' 10" ahead in the end. So once again, he failed to take time in the final week.

Basically when Contador wins a GT he does it by taking a lead and holding on to it in the final week. The only exception being Fuente de, where he didn't win back by being the best climber but by being the smartest rider.

There is simply no evidence Contador is better at recovery than other riders. Since his lead always seems to decrease in the final week. The only exception being the 2008 Giro and 2011 TDF, where he was able to take time on lesser time trialists in Ricco and Andy Schleck.

Again: Yes Contador is a great GT rider and an awesome climber, but his strength is NOT the final week. His strength is being to good early on and taking to much time for others to catch up. He then either loses some time through not being good enough, or because he's taking it easy. Neither option shows he's got great recovery.

 

[Ataraxus]

Sky and Tinkoff had roughly the same time up the climb. Movistar was fastest up followed by BMC. Quintana and Contador will have to go on the offensive. Nibali is pretty much done on GC unless he goes ballistic on descents. would probably need to team with Contador who is the only GC guy who goes downhill like a madman, but then would have to find a way to put time into him.

Would love to witness VN AC alliance in the descents but there's also the CF NQ alliance in the ascents to be considered. I wouldn't be surprised if they drop all the other conteders and take regular pulls with the aim to finish them off the GC.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Ramira has a point. Contador never really excelled in the 3rd week

 

[Publicus]

We'll agree to disagree or you can start a thread about it and we can carry on the discussion there.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

For example:
2007 TDF: When Rasmussen got pulled he had 1:53 on Evans, he ended with 23 seconds, lost 1 minute 30 from stage 17 on.

He lost all that time in the last ITT, Evans was just a vastly superior TTer at that point. Had nothing to do with recovery.

2008 Giro: Took the Pink in stage 15, was 33 ahead of Ricco, and 1 minute 18 ahead of Bruseghin. They were 4 seconds and 2 minutes behind him respectively before the TT, which admittedly he crushed. Yet not exactly a display of final week climbing dominance.

Nowhere in that GT was he dominant apart from the TT.

2008 Vuelta: Took the gold jersey in stage 13, 1 minute 7 ahead of Leipheimer, ended 46 seconds ahead. Losing 21 seconds in that final week.

Again, he lost all that time in the final ITT, Leipheimer was just a superior TTer.

2009 TDF: Took the yellow in stage 15, was 2'26" ahead of Andy Schleck. Until the ITT it stayed at 2'26, there he jumped till 4'11" so he took 0 seconds to Andy in that final week.

And he never tried to.

2010 TDF: Took the yellow by 8 seconds in stage 15, 8 seconds ahead of Andy. Then was unable to take any more time till the ITT, where he took 31 seconds, by far the least he ever took on Andy Schlek in a TT.

That year he was just overall crappy, so I wouldn't read anything into his performance.

2011 Giro: Was never threatened.

Indeed.

2012 Vuelta: Came back from suspension, so had no racing in his legs and was 100% fresh. Was behind Rodriguez early on, took the lead in Fuente de, then proceeded to lose 44 seconds to Rodriguez and 36 seconds to Valverde in the final stages. Even here he wasn't the best in the last week.

He wasn't the best in the entire race. Rodriguez was objectively better uphill, thanks to his great uphill sprinting skills. He won through tactics and gutsy riding.

2013 TDF: After stage 13 he was 3rd, 2' 45" behind. In the end he was 4th 7' 10" behind. 2' 7" behind Quintana and 1' 23" behind Rodriguez. He had 2' 38" on Quintana and 3' 03" on Rodrigues, so he lost more than 4 minutes to both in his final week or so.

Yes, he was terrible that year.

2014 Vuelta: He came back from injury, so no normal prep. Yet he was already leader by stage 10. He was 1' 18" ahead of Froome at that time (which was 1' 39" by stage 16). He ended up only 1' 10" ahead in the end. So once again, he failed to take time in the final week.

He lost 27 seconds in the final ITT in which he didn't push himself at all. He actually got gradually better throughout the race, dropping Froome twice and taking the win on the two biggest mountain stages, stage 16 and 20.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Froome will have to be careful who to mark.

I doubt he will mark anyone, I'd bet he is the first of the big 4 to attack on Tuesday.

What if Quintana goes from far out?
When Froome should respond?
An immediate answer could cost him. The rest could benefit.

I am one of the few posters who don't like to speculate what one rider would do versus another. I take life like really unpredictable. Anybody can still have a chance.

Having said that, I'll tell you one thing I know for certain, Quintana will not attack from far away. He has even said it several times that he learned his lesson well. He has to be completely out of it to do that. At that point nobody cares.

 

[Ramira]

The point was not that he regressed in all these GT's. It was that there's simply no evidence he's better in the final week than his competitors. Pretty much every GT he won he had a commanding lead going into the final week. The only race where he took command of a race where he was behind his main competitors was the 2012 Vuelta, and you yourself admitted he wasn't better than Rodriguez, not even in the final week.

I never said he wasn't the strongest rider in any of his wins. All I'm saying is that he wins by either being so much stronger that he isn't challenged or by taking enough time early on that he can afford to either lose some time, or not try to gain any more.

I don't understand why him being the best rider in 9 GT's isn't good enough, he also has to be the best at recovery, even though there's no evidence that he is.

 

[Springveldt]

Re: Re:

Froome will have to be careful who to mark.

I doubt he will mark anyone, I'd bet he is the first of the big 4 to attack on Tuesday.

What if Quintana goes from far out?
When Froome should respond?
An immediate answer could cost him. The rest could benefit.

With the team SKY have brought, personally I think it would be suicide for Quintana to go long. That SKY train is going to chug on until Porte kills off most of the peleton then Froome goes full gas and only the strongest will be able to hang on.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

I don't understand why him being the best rider in 9 GT's isn't good enough, he also has to be the best at recovery, even though there's no evidence that he is.

GTs are all about recovery. He was the best in 9 GTs, that should be enough evidence that his recovery is great.

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

Froome will have to be careful who to mark.

I doubt he will mark anyone, I'd bet he is the first of the big 4 to attack on Tuesday.

What if Quintana goes from far out?
When Froome should respond?
An immediate answer could cost him. The rest could benefit.

I am one of the few posters who don't like to speculate what one rider would do versus another. I take life like really unpredictable. Anybody can still have a chance.

Having said that, I'll tell you one thing I know for certain, Quintana will not attack from far away. He has even said it several times that he learned his lesson well. He has to be completely out of it to do that. At that point nobody cares.

So, bit by bit everyday?
That's nice too.
Although I would like the race to be turned upside down at a point. At least that's how I think they should put Sky under pressure. Tuesday might not be the good day for that, but the Thursday certainly is and the Wednesday to some extent.

 

[Ramira]

Re: Re:

I don't understand why him being the best rider in 9 GT's isn't good enough, he also has to be the best at recovery, even though there's no evidence that he is.

GTs are all about recovery. He was the best in 9 GTs, that should be enough evidence that his recovery is great.

GT's are about how good you are at the individual disciplines (Climbing/TT) combined with recovery. In virtually every GT he's won he was the best climber on the first real climb of that GT. It's that pure class that allowed him to win so many GT's. Of course his recovery is good enough that he's still the best (or one of the best) climbers in the final week.

My point is that from what I've seen in the past, when Contador wasn't the best climber in the first two weeks, he wasn't in the third either. His recovery has simply not been spectacular that way.

Now this year is different, he has a Giro in his legs, and because of that he had to rest a lot in preparation for the tour. So there's a chance he'll get better, but that won't be because he recovers so amazingly, it'll be because he peaked late in the tour.

 

[Walkman]

Re: Re:

Ah there we go people are overrating tj again. Not 1 mountain done in the tour and he's already on the podium.

It's always the same with tj in this forum.

As if he is the one getting overrated too much. Contador won the "Who will win the Tour-poll"…

Those polls most often show what people wish for. So just show that Berto is more loved.

This doesn't mean one mustn't make fun of their wishful thinkings. Wishful thinkings coming from july users get ridiculed constantly TBH

It was not my intent to make fun of anyone. My point was that I think many posters tend to overrate Contadors chances. I don't believe he will podium and I believe Tejay will beat him in the end. Simple as that. With that said, I am still cautious. The race is far from over and we will have to see how everyones legs responds when they hit the mountains.

 

[Finn84]

Are the individual times available somewhere? (those who were dropped by the teams)

 

[SergeDeM]

Re: Re:

Ah there we go people are overrating tj again. Not 1 mountain done in the tour and he's already on the podium.

It's always the same with tj in this forum.

As if he is the one getting overrated too much. Contador won the "Who will win the Tour-poll"…

Those polls most often show what people wish for. So just show that Berto is more loved.

This doesn't mean one mustn't make fun of their wishful thinkings. Wishful thinkings coming from july users get ridiculed constantly TBH

It was not my intent to make fun of anyone. My point was that I think many posters tend to overrate Contadors chances. I don't believe he will podium and I believe Tejay will beat him in the end. Simple as that. With that said, I am still cautious. The race is far from over and we will have to see how everyones legs responds when they hit the mountains.

This would make most of us think that you overrate TJ's chances.

 

[Miburo]

Re:

Ramira has a point. Contador never really excelled in the 3rd week

Euh?

There's way more edivence for contador being better in the 3rd week than quintana who is a so called god in the 3rd week.

Contador didn't do anything in last week of tour '09 cause the tour was won, he still crushed the ITT winning against spartacus in his prime with just the help of a hill of 5km

Same with the giro '11 and you saw the stage where he gave tiralongo the stage? Was still super fresh and sprinted away from purito like he was some scrub.

And what about the vuelta 2014? Wasn't clearly the best in the first 2 weeks but showed superiority in the last week.

In the tour 2010 he was by far the best with andy. In the tour 11 he had a really solid last week, especially knowing he had the giro in his leg, for sure his best week in that GT.

 

[Miburo]

Of course contador never truly showed his excellence in the 3rd week when he was at his best ('09 and '11) cause he already crushed the competition on the first climb...

 

[Gigs_98]

When people posted yesterday that one sky rider might drop on the last climb when froome sets the pace I thought something like that never could happen but thanks to roche we have the story of the day and a BMC stage win

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Froome will have to be careful who to mark.

I doubt he will mark anyone, I'd bet he is the first of the big 4 to attack on Tuesday.

What if Quintana goes from far out?
When Froome should respond?
An immediate answer could cost him. The rest could benefit.

I am one of the few posters who don't like to speculate what one rider would do versus another. I take life like really unpredictable. Anybody can still have a chance.

Having said that, I'll tell you one thing I know for certain, Quintana will not attack from far away. He has even said it several times that he learned his lesson well. He has to be completely out of it to do that. At that point nobody cares.

What? When did he say that and especially why did he say that? The tour 2013, where he lost time because of long range attacks, where a completely different situation because he wasn't a top favorite. However in 2014 he gained 4 minutes on uran at the giro with a long range attack so why should he say he learned his lesson?