Tour de France 2016 route prediction

[winkybiker]

Re: Re:

Stage 15 is good, but i still prefer stage 8 ( dam, it's too early!)

-Col du Tourmalet: 19 km al 7,4% (2.115 m);
-Hourquette d'Ancizan: ; 10km al 7.5%
-col de Val Louron-Azet: 10,7 km al 6.8% (1.580 m);
-col de Peyresourde: 7,1 km al 7.8% (1,569 m)

Great

the trio Hourquette-Azet-Peyresoude is very nice. I had to take a look at google maps to see the exact route. 3 nice cols in 30 km as the crow flies
Hourquette has a very narrow road

Yes the choice to descend the Horquette, rather than the Aspin is interesting. With little flat between there and the finish, perhaps a chance for an early break by someone like Nibali. Azet descent is pretty technical, too. Peyresourde, not so much.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Stage 15 is good, but i still prefer stage 8 ( dam, it's too early!)

-Col du Tourmalet: 19 km al 7,4% (2.115 m);
-Hourquette d'Ancizan: ; 10km al 7.5%
-col de Val Louron-Azet: 10,7 km al 6.8% (1.580 m);
-col de Peyresourde: 7,1 km al 7.8% (1,569 m)

Great

the trio Hourquette-Azet-Peyresoude is very nice. I had to take a look at google maps to see the exact route. 3 nice cols in 30 km as the crow flies
Hourquette has a very narrow road

Yes the choice to descend the Horquette, rather than the Aspin is interesting. With little flat between there and the finish, perhaps a chance for an early break by someone like Nibali. Azet descent is pretty technical, too. Peyresourde, not so much.

Well I fear Nibali wont ride the tour, moreover such long range attack on the day before the first mtf are rather unlikely

 

[ILovecycling]

Well, not that bad but not either really good, what caught my attention is stage 19, thats laughable

 

[Libertine Seguros]

plus points:
- Le Lioran stage about the best it can be, and early enough in the race to separate wheat from chaff preventing eleven stages of crashes like the tedious first half of the 2011 race
- stage 2 has an interesting enough run-in, punchy without being a real murito
- Mont Bisanne!!!
- ASO actually getting creative a bit with loops in the Grand-Colombier stage, which has a lot of potential
- Col de la Gueulaz!
- last mountain stage is a descent finish
- no TTT
- Alps less predictable than usual and some new and interesting MTFs
- no __________/ stages except Ventoux, which is a hard enough climb it doesn't need much to precede it (which is good as there isn't much you can do to precede it from the classic Bédoin side)
- not backloaded

minus points:
- Ventoux too soon after last time for my liking. Like Stelvio, it had its mythology despite, and perhaps because of, infrequent use compared to l'Alpe.
- Nothing like enough flat time trial mileage. 37km that isn't really flat? What is this, the Vuelta? Not a very interesting-looking MTT either.
- Arcalis!!!
- Better sides of Grand-Colombier available for the first ascent
- Yet again no long stages in the Alps
- Tough Arcalis stage may neuter some action in the Luchon stage
- Luchon stage includes Tourmalet
- Mont Bisanne too far from the finish with no other obstacles between it and Le Bettex
- No hilly stages after the opening weekend unless you count Perthus and the northwest face of Pas de Peyrol as hills
- another year with a flat stage on the penultimate weekend with practically nothing but GC relevant stages afterward until Paris. What the actual f***, ASO?

 

[barmaher]

Do you think it is a good route overall, LS?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

It has far too many fundamental flaws for me to call it a "good" route (only 37km "flat" TT, penultimate weekend sprint stage) but it's a definite improvement on the last couple, seems better than the Giro on first look and shows ASO actually trying out some new and different things for once, even if the long awaited use of Mont Bisanne is a bit like the first time La Vuelta used Ancáres, in the middle of a stage designed for the breakaway.

 

[Tonton]

Flaws yes, but not "too many". The best design in quite some time, that should keep the suspense until the end. My minuses are that the ITT isn't the day before Paris, the only tradition that I like with the TdF. Also, as mentioned, if you want to highlight Le Grand Colombier, don't half-arse it go Artemare-Virieu...I have yet to see all the profiles and specifics to prepare my "rate the '16 TdF course" post, as I suspect the thread is imminent.

 

[JRanton]

I've seen some people say it's a balanced route but I couldn't disagree more. The 2 hilly time trials do not make the route balanced. If anything just even more unbalanced. Froome's performance in the 2013 flat ITT to Mont-Saint-Michel (which was only 33km!) has led to ASO creating completely unbalanced routes with the aim of gifting Quintana a Tour win. When Quintana does win the Tour, can we then go back to a normal, balanced route, so we get to see the best and most complete GC rider win?

 

[damian13ster]

I've seen some people say it's a balanced route but I couldn't disagree more. The 2 hilly time trials do not make the route balanced. If anything just even more unbalanced. Froome's performance in the 2013 flat ITT to Mont-Saint-Michel (which was only 33km!) has led to ASO creating completely unbalanced routes with the aim of gifting Quintana a Tour win. When Quintana does win the Tour, can we then go back to a normal, balanced route, so we get to see the best and most complete GC rider win?

+1.
I wouldn't mind Froome just not showing up so a lesser GT rider can win and finally we can get back to balanced routes. The amount and profiles of TTs lately are a disgrace

 

[JRanton]

I've seen some people say it's a balanced route but I couldn't disagree more. The 2 hilly time trials do not make the route balanced. If anything just even more unbalanced. Froome's performance in the 2013 flat ITT to Mont-Saint-Michel (which was only 33km!) has led to ASO creating completely unbalanced routes with the aim of gifting Quintana a Tour win. When Quintana does win the Tour, can we then go back to a normal, balanced route, so we get to see the best and most complete GC rider win?

+1.
I wouldn't mind Froome just not showing up so a lesser GT rider can win and finally we can get back to balanced routes. The amount and profiles of TTs lately are a disgrace

It is. As for keeping the race close by reducing the flat ITT km's, if Contador shows up at or close to his best (which I think he will) then we could have had a very close fight for the victory even with a flat 50km ITT.

 

[hrotha]

Flaws yes, but not "too many". The best design in quite some time, that should keep the suspense until the end. My minuses are that the ITT isn't the day before Paris, the only tradition that I like with the TdF. Also, as mentioned, if you want to highlight Le Grand Colombier, don't half-arse it go Artemare-Virieu...I have yet to see all the profiles and specifics to prepare my "rate the '16 TdF course" post, as I suspect the thread is imminent.

Oh, it'll keep the suspense alright. It's designed specifically to ensue that, much like the recent Vueltas.

It just so happens that, for some of us, having a close race doesn't translate into having a good race; quite the contrary, pretty often. The lack of flat ITT km is very important on that front, since the short, kinda hilly ITTs we see these days minimize gaps between the contenders. That puts more people into theoretical striking distance of the yellow jersey or the podium, which many people see as a good thing. But it also makes the race much more conservative, since everybody thinks they have more to lose by attacking.

To those of us whose philosophy revolves around the idea that maximizing the amount of time the contenders face off against one another is the key to a good race, and that, AS A GENERAL RULE, bigger gaps lead to more kilometers of racing among the favourites, having a single shortish ITT in that mold is a very, very fundamental flaw that completely ruins the design of the whole race. Stages can't be analyzed in isolation. In our view, you could have 8 of the best-designed mountain stages humankind has ever seen, and the race would still be deeply flawed because of the time-trialing (or lack thereof).

edit: That said, it's not much worse than the Giro in this regard.

 

[Tonton]

I've seen some people say it's a balanced route but I couldn't disagree more. The 2 hilly time trials do not make the route balanced. If anything just even more unbalanced. Froome's performance in the 2013 flat ITT to Mont-Saint-Michel (which was only 33km!) has led to ASO creating completely unbalanced routes with the aim of gifting Quintana a Tour win. When Quintana does win the Tour, can we then go back to a normal, balanced route, so we get to see the best and most complete GC rider win?

Great points. However, and it's a matter of taste, I like when a GT is won in the mountains so I can't help liking what I have seen of the course so far (through the Tour website). You mention Quintana: I'm not sure it is so much about Quintana winning the TdF as it is for Froome to lose it. And I would add that the French top riders are all excellent climbers. This course plays to their strengths. Having said that, how about Contador? He must be licking his chops. If he can go back to his Dauphine '14 form (his best in recent years IMO), he'll be lethal.

 

[Tonton]

To those of us whose philosophy revolves around the idea that maximizing the amount of time the contenders face off against one another is the key to a good race, and that, AS A GENERAL RULE, bigger gaps lead to more kilometers of racing among the favourites, having a single shortish ITT in that mold is a very, very fundamental flaw that completely ruins the design of the whole race.

I don't disagree. And as I hinted (maybe I should have elaborated), the ITT should have been longer and flatter. Having said that, my expectations (as always with the TdF) were low, and I think it's a much better course than I thought it would be.

 

[hrotha]

I like when a GT is won in the mountains

I think this is something that many people overlook. Having proper ITTs is not just about having a proper all-rounder win, it's also about making sure the climbers *need* to move in the mountains. Climbing will always remain the key skill to win any GT; the difference is whether we're talking about who can climb the fastest in short 2-3 km bursts (because nobody needs to move before that), or about who can do it over several climbs.

 

[JRanton]

I've seen some people say it's a balanced route but I couldn't disagree more. The 2 hilly time trials do not make the route balanced. If anything just even more unbalanced. Froome's performance in the 2013 flat ITT to Mont-Saint-Michel (which was only 33km!) has led to ASO creating completely unbalanced routes with the aim of gifting Quintana a Tour win. When Quintana does win the Tour, can we then go back to a normal, balanced route, so we get to see the best and most complete GC rider win?

Great points. However, and it's a matter of taste, I like when a GT is won in the mountains so I can't help liking what I have seen of the course so far (through the Tour website). You mention Quintana: I'm not sure it is so much about Quintana winning the TdF as it is for Froome to lose it. And I would add that the French top riders are all excellent climbers. This course plays to their strengths. Having said that, how about Contador? He must be licking his chops. If he can go back to his Dauphine '14 form (his best in recent years IMO), he'll be lethal.

I agree with that. Contador in his 2014 shape will be hard to beat on this route. In that shape the only thing that Contador would be concerned about would be a 50km flat ITT (against Froome) and of course there is nothing evenly remotely close to that in this route. My main point (in my second post) is that it could still have been a very competitive race between Froome and Contador even with the appropriate amount of flat time trialing being included. Frankly to make this route balanced you could easily make a case for there needing to be 70-80km of flat TT km's. I'm only asking for one at 50km long!

You're right that it's more anti-Froome rather than pro-Quintana. They are effectively making it impossible for a double Tour winner to display his greatest asset (relative to his rivals) and in turn making the route hopelessly unbalanced. It's poor form as we say in Britain.

 

[Tonton]

I like when a GT is won in the mountains

I think this is something that many people overlook. Having proper ITTs is not just about having a proper all-rounder win, it's also about making sure the climbers *need* to move in the mountains. Climbing will always remain the key skill to win any GT; the difference is whether we're talking about who can climb the fastest in short 2-3 km bursts (because nobody needs to move before that), or about who can do it over several climbs.

Hence my comment about the ITT taking place stage 20, the only tradition that I like about the TdF.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

You're right that it's more anti-Froome rather than pro-Quintana. They are effectively making it impossible for a double Tour winner to display his greatest asset (relative to his rivals) and in turn making the route hopelessly unbalanced. It's poor form as we say in Britain.

No more biased than the 2012 Tour with its super-long TTs and lack of MTFs which was clearly biased in Wiggins' favour, or the 2009 Tour designed specifically to keep Armstrong in contention as long as possible. Race routes in favour of contenders the organizers want to see win or biased against contenders they don't are nothing new - think of Moser's Giro, for example, or the emergence of the 15 puncheur finishes in the Vuelta with Purito and Valverde at the top of the sport. Besides, Froome did just win an even more unbalanced Tour with 13km of flat TTing of course!

The thing is, they have to protect their event, and they need to protect the spectacle. If you were going to pin this on an anti-Froome agenda, it is possibly no more than that ASO may now recognise that they have an unpopular winner at the moment and aren't keen on seeing a repeat of this year, with their race over after a week with the main coverage in the international press after that being for fans revolting against the race and for relentless Clinic talk that leaves everybody looking bad.

 

[Tonton]

...a long ITT last is an incentive for climbers to attack, but also from a design perspective, you can place it in an area between the last mountain stage and Paris, area that would otherwise be ignored. Look at this map: not the tour de la France . That's my biggest minus actually: how 75% of the country will pay taxes for Police and Gendarmerie, and everything else, and get NOTHING. I watched my first TdF on TV in '75, didn't care that much, I didn't follow the '76 Tour. Then in '77 I was on the side of the road with my family for the Besancon-Thonon les Bains stage. I saw Eddy. Without that experience I would never have taken on cycling. And maybe that's what is the most overlooked point about TdF designs: bring the TdF to the public and you might inspire the kid who will later become a champion. That, to me, is a great failure, year after year, after year.

 

[Tonton]

You're right that it's more anti-Froome rather than pro-Quintana. They are effectively making it impossible for a double Tour winner to display his greatest asset (relative to his rivals) and in turn making the route hopelessly unbalanced. It's poor form as we say in Britain.

No more biased than the 2012 Tour with its super-long TTs and lack of MTFs which was clearly biased in Wiggins' favour, or the 2009 Tour designed specifically to keep Armstrong in contention as long as possible. Race routes in favour of contenders the organizers want to see win or biased against contenders they don't are nothing new - think of Moser's Giro, for example, or the emergence of the 15 puncheur finishes in the Vuelta with Purito and Valverde at the top of the sport. Besides, Froome did just win an even more unbalanced Tour with 13km of flat TTing of course!

The thing is, they have to protect their event, and they need to protect the spectacle. If you were going to pin this on an anti-Froome agenda, it is possibly no more than that ASO may now recognise that they have an unpopular winner at the moment and aren't keen on seeing a repeat of this year, with their race over after a week with the main coverage in the international press after that being for fans revolting against the race and for relentless Clinic talk that leaves everybody looking bad.

Were you reading my mind? . So true.

 

[zlev11]

when i read these threads i always wonder what the best TDF route of the past 25 years is? probably something from the mid '90's, right? 1994?

 

[asdfgh101]

A disgusting attack on Cav in the press book preview of Stage 16 ;-)

Avant la séquence alpine, les grimpeurs observeront un relatif répit sur
la route de Berne, qui sillonne entre les nombreuses vallées du Jura.
Les purs sprinteurs ne devront pourtant pas se faire trop d’illusions :
la bosse qu’ils auront à passer dans le final urbain pourrait éjecter
les plus gros bébés de la lutte pour la gagne !

Before the alpine sequence of the Tour, the climbers will enjoy a
relative break on the road to Berne that goes through the numerous
valleys of the Jura area. The pure sprinters shouldn’t hope for too much:
indeed the hill they’ll have to climb in the urban final of the stage
could prevent the biggest babies from fighting for victory!

 

[jens_attacks]

Looooooooollll hahaha

 

[OlavEH]

Re:

It has far too many fundamental flaws for me to call it a "good" route (only 37km "flat" TT, penultimate weekend sprint stage) but it's a definite improvement on the last couple, seems better than the Giro on first look and shows ASO actually trying out some new and different things for once, even if the long awaited use of Mont Bisanne is a bit like the first time La Vuelta used Ancáres, in the middle of a stage designed for the breakaway.

You're probably the one in this forum that is most critical to the organizers regarding route design. What is, in your opinion, the best Giro route and the best Tour route the last 10 years, and how would you rate them on the usual scale from 1-10? Just asking out of curiosity....

 

[Kwibus]

@tontom

I rather have a long flat TT before the climbs or in between. This way the climbers know how much they have to make up.
A TT on the penultimate stage probably causes a lot of climbers to overestimate their TT power.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I've seen some people say it's a balanced route but I couldn't disagree more. The 2 hilly time trials do not make the route balanced. If anything just even more unbalanced. Froome's performance in the 2013 flat ITT to Mont-Saint-Michel (which was only 33km!) has led to ASO creating completely unbalanced routes with the aim of gifting Quintana a Tour win. When Quintana does win the Tour, can we then go back to a normal, balanced route, so we get to see the best and most complete GC rider win?

Great points. However, and it's a matter of taste, I like when a GT is won in the mountains so I can't help liking what I have seen of the course so far (through the Tour website). You mention Quintana: I'm not sure it is so much about Quintana winning the TdF as it is for Froome to lose it. And I would add that the French top riders are all excellent climbers. This course plays to their strengths. Having said that, how about Contador? He must be licking his chops. If he can go back to his Dauphine '14 form (his best in recent years IMO), he'll be lethal.

I don't consider the first TT to be hilly as it's mostly close to pan flat, if the profile is to believed. It's a mix with most of it being flat. I'd say the

I agree with that. Contador in his 2014 shape will be hard to beat on this route. In that shape the only thing that Contador would be concerned about would be a 50km flat ITT (against Froome) and of course there is nothing evenly remotely close to that in this route. My main point (in my second post) is that it could still have been a very competitive race between Froome and Contador even with the appropriate amount of flat time trialing being included. Frankly to make this route balanced you could easily make a case for there needing to be 70-80km of flat TT km's. I'm only asking for one at 50km long!

You're right that it's more anti-Froome rather than pro-Quintana. They are effectively making it impossible for a double Tour winner to display his greatest asset (relative to his rivals) and in turn making the route hopelessly unbalanced. It's poor form as we say in Britain.

The first TT suits 2012 Froome to a T, IMO, and I think gaps will be plenty big if he can drill it like he used to. His ability to own everyone on the first MTFs is just as big of an asset at this point, though

He can take time in the stages to Arcalis, Ventoux and the first TT the day after, if he recovers well relative to his opponents - and can then defend his lead, or not.