Tour de France 2016 route prediction

[Poursuivant]

Thanks for replies.

I would like to see a long flat TT this year, 13km of TT is far too little.

 

[rghysens]

OK, using the star rating of Eshnar (***** = official, * = wild guess), so far we have (relying heavily on velowire.com)

stage 1: Mont Saint-Michel - Utah beach: (*****): flat stage mainly following the coastline of the Cotentin peninsula
stage 2: Saint-Lo - Cherbourg-Octeville: (*****) hilly final (one 4th cat hill with +/-8km to go and finish on a 3rd cat: 3km @ 5%, with pitches up to 16% and a small descent in the middle)
stage 3: Granville - Angers (****): flat stage
stage 4: Saumur or Tours - Limoges (****): stage with a rolling/hilly final. In 1995 the tour finished in Limoges, Pantani attacked the peloton in the final km and gained 20". In 2007 a Paris-Nice stage finished in Limoges with a long 2km uphill drag (3.5 - 4%) Pellizoti won, in front of a mixture of strong sprinters an punchers (purito finished top 5, f.e.)
stage 5: Limoges - Superlioran (****): first 150km or so are hilly, the closing 50km or so wil contain 2-3 2nd cat climbs and a hilltop finish
stage 6: Maurs/Aurillac - Montauban (**): rolling stage. Start probably will be between Maurs and Aurillac, finish is a strong guess. Montauban is a candidate.
stage 7: l'Isle Jourdain - lac de Payolle (***): can be anything from rolling with an uphill long false flat finish to a high mountain stage with a descent (Balès, peyresourde, Aspin). Three consecutive high mountain stages at this stage of the tour doesn't seem very likely, though.
stage 8: Pau - Loudenvielle (****): high mountains with descent finish
stage 9 : Vielha - Andorra (Els Cortals) (****): Andorra is a certainty, the exact finish location not. High mountain stage, likely with mtf
rest day
stage 10: Andorra - Revel (****): first half is mountainous, second half rolling, probably 3rd cat hill in the final
stage 11: Carcassonne - Montpellier (***): flat, final along the coastline is possible
stage 12: Montpellier - Mont Ventoux (****): flat + mtf
stage 13: Bourg Saint-Andéol - Vallon Pont d'Arc (*****): rolling tt, 40-50km
stage 14: Montélimar - Villard-les dombes (??) (**): flat stage going north, mainly following the course of the Rhone river upstream
stage 15: Villard-les-dombes?? - Champagnole?? (*): rumoured medium mountain stage through the Jura. Some gossips indicate a passage on the Grand Colombier
stage 16: Champagnole?? - Bern (***): rolling/hilly stage. Bern is a certainty
rest day
stage 17: Bern or Fribourg - Barrage d'Emosson (***): first 3/4 are rolling, very mountainous final with mtf from the Dauphiné 2014.
stage 18: Sallanches - Saint-Gervais (le Bettex??) (**): there are rumours about a mountainous tt in the Alps, but Morzine - Les Gets is out.
stage 19: Saint-Gervais - Mégève (**): mountain stage comparable to the stage to LGB in the 2013 TDF. At least one of stages 18 and 19 will be a waste of climbs
stage 20: Mégève - Morzine (***): mountain stage with Ramaz (probably), Joux Plane and maybe Avoriaz or Joux Verte in the final.
stage 21: Chantilly - paris (****): flat parade, but a more or less direct road between the two is 45km, so a 2nd long TT would be a most welcome surprise. In that case there won't be a TT in the Alps. This scenario (a TT on the last day) is highly unlikely, however

 

[Valv.Piti]

Great overview, cant wait for the presentation.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Given that there was only about 50 kms of ITT in 2014 and almost 0 this year, there should be AT LEAST 80 kms in the 2016 edition. If there is only a time trial on stage 13 then that would be pathetic.

No wonder Bavarianrider has been less active on here recently

Mont Ventoux, good. Three years after the last time, which was four years after the one before....this spacing is about right, and would also be the best way to go with Alp duez....

What do people think about the ITT the day after Ventoux? I ask because of the outrage caused by having the MTT in the Giro on stage 15, immediately after the queen stage of stage 14. Will the riders be less aggressive on Ventoux because of the time trial?

This TDF route is looking alright in its emerging form. If we can have a decent amount of ITT kms then this might be one of the best GT courses in recent years.

 

[barmaher]

Ventoux is a one climb stage anyway. I like the ITT straight after it, particularly if it is not too hilly. Problem with the Giro ITT is that it is straight after a stage that could be attacked from far out if there weren't an ITT straight after.

 

[rghysens]

Re:

This TDF route is looking alright in its emerging form. If we can have a decent amount of ITT kms then this might be one of the best GT courses in recent years.

Don't forget ASO has the talent to really screw mountain stages. Almost all (medium) mountain stages can be anything from disappointing to really great. The stage to Andorra, f.e., can be Bonaigua - Canto - Arcalis (horrible) or Bonaigua - Canto - Gallina - Comella - Els Cortals (great). The stage to Loudenvielle can be anything between Tourmalet - Aspin (aweful) to Aubisque - Tourmalet - Ancizan - Azet (very good).

 

[Max Rockatansky]

I would love to see the Ventoux stage finishing in Carpentras like in 1994.

 

[rghysens]

Re:

I would love to see the Ventoux stage finishing in Carpentras like in 1994.

Then nothing (really interesting) would happen, with the main TT the day after.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re: Re:

I would love to see the Ventoux stage finishing in Carpentras like in 1994.

Then nothing (really interesting) would happen, with the main TT the day after.

I prefer "nothing" and a high speed descend with 120 km/h to Froome and Sky destroying everyone.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Given that there was only about 50 kms of ITT in 2014 and almost 0 this year, there should be AT LEAST 80 kms in the 2016 edition. If there is only a time trial on stage 13 then that would be pathetic.

No wonder Bavarianrider has been less active on here recently

Mont Ventoux, good. Three years after the last time, which was four years after the one before....this spacing is about right, and would also be the best way to go with Alp duez....

What do people think about the ITT the day after Ventoux? I ask because of the outrage caused by having the MTT in the Giro on stage 15, immediately after the queen stage of stage 14. Will the riders be less aggressive on Ventoux because of the time trial?

This TDF route is looking alright in its emerging form. If we can have a decent amount of ITT kms then this might be one of the best GT courses in recent years.

It's different, Ventoux would always be just about the final climb and it's a MTF, so having the ITT on the next day isn't a huge problem.

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Great overview, cant wait for the presentation.

In the end it all comes down to the profiles.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Ventoux is a one climb stage anyway. I like the ITT straight after it, particularly if it is not too hilly. Problem with the Giro ITT is that it is straight after a stage that could be attacked from far out if there weren't an ITT straight after.

You are definitely right that a TT doesnt harm a stage with a mtf on the Ventoux as much as the giro stage, but its still anything but perfect. Moreover it would be a classic ASO if the second ITT seriously comes after the first alps stage. I loved the dauphine finish 2014 and while the Ventoux is a simple HC mtf on a one climb stage, the mtf in Emosson isnt too difficult and long range attacks are at least possible (although tbh if the next stage would be a mountain stage too there probably also wouldnt be attacks). Maybe it will at least be the last mtf but I don't think you can expect 2 downhill finishes in a row, from the ASO.

Besides that the route is promising. The first week is good, with lots of hills and already some high mountains on stage 8 and 9 (although 8 could also be one of these wasted pyrenees stages). The second week would also be good if there are only 2 sprints on 7 stages, although I fear there will be more. Grand Colombier would be great too although it isn't gc relevant at all if it comes so early, but it would still make the overall stage more difficult and the fight for the stage will be more interesting. The last week could be good too, but I have no idea what stage 18 and 19 will be like. I actually also don't really care if Morzine is a downhill finish or a mtf in Avoriaz. Downhill finish's are generally better as the last mountain stage but there is no climb directly before the Joux Plane, which makes long range attacks less likely, while there wouldnt be any flat between Joux Plane and Avoriaz. Joux Plane - Joux Verte - Morzine would maybe be the best option, but I doubt it will happen.

 

[staubsauger]

Simply make Ventoux a mtt, take the long tt to the first week and maybe add another short one as the final stage. It ain't that hard Monsieur Prudhomme!

 

[Bavarianrider]

No Chance of a MTT on July 14th as no French guy has a serious shot to win it.

 

[Gigs_98]

No Chance of a MTT on July 14th as no French guy has a serious shot to win it.

Well I also doubt that a french guy can win a mtf on the Ventoux. We all saw how well that worked on a unipublic mtf this year.

 

[rghysens]

Out of fun I designed a best and worst case scenario for the possible (medium) mountain stage in the first week.
This is what I came up with:

Stage 5 worst case scenario:

Stage 5 best case scenario:

Stage 7 worst case scenario:

Stage 7 best case scenario:

Stage 8 worst case scenario:

Stage 8 best case scenario:

Stage 9 worst case scenario:

Stage 9 best case scenario:

 

[Red Rick]

It's the Tour, there's no best case scenario

 

[rghysens]

Re:

It's the Tour, there's no best case scenario

True.
The final design will probably be something in between both.

 

[Bavarianrider]

No Chance of a MTT on July 14th as no French guy has a serious shot to win it.

Well I also doubt that a french guy can win a mtf on the Ventoux. We all saw how well that worked on a unipublic mtf this year.

There's always the Chance of a break away on Bastille day, though. Just tink of Virenque in 04.

 

[MatParker117]

No Chance of a MTT on July 14th as no French guy has a serious shot to win it.

Well I also doubt that a french guy can win a mtf on the Ventoux. We all saw how well that worked on a unipublic mtf this year.

There's always the Chance of a break away on Bastille day, though. Just tink of Virenque in 04.

On a single mountain stage in a race containing Sky, Movistar and Tinkoff?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Beixalis-Arinsal > La Comella-Els Cortals.

After La Gallina my preference would be Llac d'Engolasters, though. Maybe we're overdue a Pal finale though, haven't seen one in a few years.

 

[Bavarianrider]

No Chance of a MTT on July 14th as no French guy has a serious shot to win it.

Well I also doubt that a french guy can win a mtf on the Ventoux. We all saw how well that worked on a unipublic mtf this year.

There's always the Chance of a break away on Bastille day, though. Just tink of Virenque in 04.

On a single mountain stage in a race containing Sky, Movistar and Tinkoff?

Not likely but possible.

A French guy winning a MTT there. 100% impossibel

 

[Gigs_98]

Best case of stage 7 seems to be rather unlikely, considering that the next stage will be in the same area and might also use the same climbs. I'd prefer the Tourmalet in the first mountain stage and then the Loudenville finish like in 2007 with Bales and Peyresurde (although I know how unlikely that is)

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Best case of stage 7 seems to be rather unlikely, considering that the next stage will be in the same area and might also use the same climbs. I'd prefer the Tourmalet in the first mountain stage and then the Loudenville finish like in 2009 with Bales and Peyresurde (although I know how unlikely that is)

Assume you mean 2007, because the Pyrenean stages in the 2009 Tour had diseases.

 

[Gigs_98]

Best case of stage 7 seems to be rather unlikely, considering that the next stage will be in the same area and might also use the same climbs. I'd prefer the Tourmalet in the first mountain stage and then the Loudenville finish like in 2009 with Bales and Peyresurde (although I know how unlikely that is)

Assume you mean 2007, because the Pyrenean stages in the 2009 Tour had diseases.

Sorry for that, you are right. Please don't kill kittens.