Tour de France 2017 stage 3: Verviers - Longwy 212,5 km

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Who will win the stage?

  • Greg van Avermaet

    Votes: 5 3.9%
  • Peter Sagan

    Votes: 51 40.2%
  • Sonny Colbrelli

    Votes: 9 7.1%
  • Michael Matthews

    Votes: 10 7.9%
  • Marcel Kittel

    Votes: 5 3.9%
  • Phillipe Gilbert

    Votes: 16 12.6%
  • Arnaud Demare

    Votes: 8 6.3%
  • John Degenkolb

    Votes: 1 0.8%
  • None of the above

    Votes: 12 9.4%
  • Vino-option

    Votes: 10 7.9%

  • Total voters
    127
  • Poll closed .
Re: Re:

Dekker_Tifosi said:
armchairclimber said:
Roglic a big loser today.
Roglic isn't going for GC. None of the LottoNL guys are. They all are going for stage wins.
So I'm not sure I understand? He's not the type to win this stage anyway
In fairness, the plan was not for him to lose 2 minutes today. The way I understood it, he wasn't specifically targeting GC, but going for the opening TT and just kind of seeing how the race unfolded from there. I guess the TT crash changed things anyway.
 
Re: Re:

jaylew said:
Dekker_Tifosi said:
armchairclimber said:
Roglic a big loser today.
Roglic isn't going for GC. None of the LottoNL guys are. They all are going for stage wins.
So I'm not sure I understand? He's not the type to win this stage anyway
In fairness, the plan was not for him to lose 2 minutes today. The way I understood it, he wasn't specifically targeting GC, but going for the opening TT and just kind of seeing how the race unfolded from there.
Yeah and he crashed in that TT, so I'm not really surprised he let the group go today, he can take his chances later.
 
Re: Re:

LaFlorecita said:
Ruby United said:
LaFlorecita said:
Great win by Sagan :)
Lexman said:
Bertie was seconds behind Porte and drifted all back...
when's he ever been good in a false flat sprint? We should be glad he didn't lose time

Of the top of my head, I clearly remember watching this stage: 2011 Tour de France Stage 4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5jm_YUCj6k
He came 2nd, ahead of Hushovd and Gilbert

Final climb that day:
stage-8-mur-de-bretagne.png


Final climb today:
climb-profile-longwy-finish.png


Not much difference.
That climb was slightly steeper overall, but the last few hundred metres were slightly less steep.
the hill was raced much harder and Berto had magic legs that year
I can give you at least 10 occasions of Berto losing terrain in a (false) flat sprint worse than today
and since a couple of years he isn't explosive anymore so I am relieved he did not lose time and happy with his result

Finish was pretty similar. Not big enough difference for you to have a valid point.
Also, you asked "when's he ever been good in a false flat sprint?" I effectively answered, 2011. You then wrote "Bertie had magic legs that year....since a couple of years he isn't explosive anymore" - I agree with that. I was merely answering your question of when he's been good in a false flat sprint, namely 2011.
(P.S. I wonder why he had magic legs that year :eek: )
 
Re: Re:

armchairclimber said:
Dekker_Tifosi said:
armchairclimber said:
Roglic a big loser today.
Roglic isn't going for GC. None of the LottoNL guys are. They all are going for stage wins.
So I'm not sure I understand? He's not the type to win this stage anyway

Seems a bit mad. He has it in him to top 10 surely. Oh well, I wasn't aware of their no GC strategy.

Maybe in the future, but Roglic hasnt proven anything in the high mountains.
 
Re: Re:

Vasilis said:
jaylew said:
Dekker_Tifosi said:
armchairclimber said:
Roglic a big loser today.
Roglic isn't going for GC. None of the LottoNL guys are. They all are going for stage wins.
So I'm not sure I understand? He's not the type to win this stage anyway
In fairness, the plan was not for him to lose 2 minutes today. The way I understood it, he wasn't specifically targeting GC, but going for the opening TT and just kind of seeing how the race unfolded from there.
Yeah and he crashed in that TT, so I'm not really surprised he let the group go today, he can take his chances later.
Yes, I was editing my post to add this when you posted.
 
Re: Re:

Ruby United said:
Finish was pretty similar. Not big enough difference for you to have a valid point.
Also, you asked "when's he ever been good in a false flat sprint?" I effectively answered, 2011. You then wrote "Bertie had magic legs that year....since a couple of years he isn't explosive anymore" - I agree with that. I was merely answering your question of when he's been good in a false flat sprint, namely 2011.
(P.S. I wonder why he had magic legs that year :eek: )
:rolleyes: quit being a smartass
Berto's even finished top-5 in flat sprints, obviously my post wasn't meant to be literal but rather to imply he usually struggles on a finish like this
 
Re: Re:

LaFlorecita said:
Ruby United said:
Finish was pretty similar. Not big enough difference for you to have a valid point.
Also, you asked "when's he ever been good in a false flat sprint?" I effectively answered, 2011. You then wrote "Bertie had magic legs that year....since a couple of years he isn't explosive anymore" - I agree with that. I was merely answering your question of when he's been good in a false flat sprint, namely 2011.
(P.S. I wonder why he had magic legs that year :eek: )
:rolleyes: quit being a smartass
Berto's even finished top-5 in flat sprints, obviously my post wasn't meant to be literal but rather to imply he usually struggles on a finish like this
Didn't he finish second to Gilbert on a punchy finish in the 2015 Giro as well?
 
Re: Re:

Vasilis said:
LaFlorecita said:
Ruby United said:
Finish was pretty similar. Not big enough difference for you to have a valid point.
Also, you asked "when's he ever been good in a false flat sprint?" I effectively answered, 2011. You then wrote "Bertie had magic legs that year....since a couple of years he isn't explosive anymore" - I agree with that. I was merely answering your question of when he's been good in a false flat sprint, namely 2011.
(P.S. I wonder why he had magic legs that year :eek: )
:rolleyes: quit being a smartass
Berto's even finished top-5 in flat sprints, obviously my post wasn't meant to be literal but rather to imply he usually struggles on a finish like this
Didn't he finish second to Gilbert on a punchy finish in the 2015 Giro as well?

The finish was a bit steeper there if I remember correctly...
 
Re: Re:

bajbar said:
Vasilis said:
LaFlorecita said:
Ruby United said:
Finish was pretty similar. Not big enough difference for you to have a valid point.
Also, you asked "when's he ever been good in a false flat sprint?" I effectively answered, 2011. You then wrote "Bertie had magic legs that year....since a couple of years he isn't explosive anymore" - I agree with that. I was merely answering your question of when he's been good in a false flat sprint, namely 2011.
(P.S. I wonder why he had magic legs that year :eek: )
:rolleyes: quit being a smartass
Berto's even finished top-5 in flat sprints, obviously my post wasn't meant to be literal but rather to imply he usually struggles on a finish like this
Didn't he finish second to Gilbert on a punchy finish in the 2015 Giro as well?
The finish was a bit steeper there if I remember correctly...
Well, at least it was evidence of Contador being explosive with a more recent example.
 
Re: Re:

Ruby United said:
LaFlorecita said:
Great win by Sagan :)
Lexman said:
Bertie was seconds behind Porte and drifted all back...
when's he ever been good in a false flat sprint? We should be glad he didn't lose time

Of the top of my head, I clearly remember watching this stage: 2011 Tour de France Stage 4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5jm_YUCj6k
He came 2nd, ahead of Hushovd and Gilbert

Final climb that day:
stage-8-mur-de-bretagne.png


Final climb today:
climb-profile-longwy-finish.png


Not much difference.
That climb was slightly steeper overall, but the last few hundred metres were slightly less steep.

Mur de Bretagne is a huge difference, depending on how it's ridden. The first part is just steep and long enough to actually destroy everyone's legs with an attack. There was an 8 man group finishing s.t. He beat Thor Hushovd that day. I do agree that his abilities on finishes like this have detoriated though, but even in his greatest days he wouldn't have gotten anything more than a 10th place or so here.
 
Re:

HelloDolly said:
Contdor lost Porte wheel very easily I thought

GVA was riding fro himself and not Porte but suffered as BMC riding for Porte
He said that he knew the finish and would lose seconds trying to outsprint anyone so let the others chase and finished with the favorites.
 
Re: Re:

bajbar said:
Vasilis said:
LaFlorecita said:
Ruby United said:
Finish was pretty similar. Not big enough difference for you to have a valid point.
Also, you asked "when's he ever been good in a false flat sprint?" I effectively answered, 2011. You then wrote "Bertie had magic legs that year....since a couple of years he isn't explosive anymore" - I agree with that. I was merely answering your question of when he's been good in a false flat sprint, namely 2011.
(P.S. I wonder why he had magic legs that year :eek: )
:rolleyes: quit being a smartass
Berto's even finished top-5 in flat sprints, obviously my post wasn't meant to be literal but rather to imply he usually struggles on a finish like this
Didn't he finish second to Gilbert on a punchy finish in the 2015 Giro as well?

The finish was a bit steeper there if I remember correctly...
quite a bit steeper, actually. 10% vs 3-4%.
 
Looks like yesterday was just a bad day for Sagan. I was thinking perhaps his form wasn't that great (though he was very impressive in Switzerland) but after a display like that this certainly is not the case. Might be an exciting battle for green this year what with all these flat stages.

Expected more from Gilbert and Stybar today to be honest. Perhaps Gilbert just doesn't have that punch anymore, he is 35 years old after all and not everyone is immune to aging like Valverde seemingly is.
 
Re: Re:

Son of Amsterhammer said:
happytramp said:
I assume this isn't hard enough for Dan Martin? He was 40/1 this morning and I'd be kicking myself if I missed it.

I think the odds tell the story. He could get a little gap I think on the steepest section, but he'd get caught very shortly after. Wouldn't shock me to see him near the front for a while though today.

Was getting a bit nervous there :razz:
 
Re: Re:

perico said:
HelloDolly said:
Contdor lost Porte wheel very easily I thought

GVA was riding fro himself and not Porte but suffered as BMC riding for Porte
He said that he knew the finish and would lose seconds trying to outsprint anyone so let the others chase and finished with the favorites.

Well I wouldn't let Porte's wheel just like that if I were him. It's a gamble to let others chase, if they hesitate a bit, then Porte is gone and that's not good. I think he wasn't strong enough, but we'll know better on Wednesday.
 
Re: Re:

Blanco said:
perico said:
HelloDolly said:
Contdor lost Porte wheel very easily I thought

GVA was riding fro himself and not Porte but suffered as BMC riding for Porte
He said that he knew the finish and would lose seconds trying to outsprint anyone so let the others chase and finished with the favorites.

Well I wouldn't let Porte's wheel just like that if I were him. It's a gamble to let others chase, if they hesitate a bit, then Porte is gone and that's not good. I think he wasn't strong enough, but we'll know better on Wednesday.

He knew Richie would blow up if he continued on.
 
Re: Re:

Zinoviev Letter said:
Jungle Cycle said:
Martin almost there... again....

Given that all of the other guys contesting this were more "sprinters who can climb" rather than "climber/puncheurs", he looked very strong. Apart from Valverde this is just too easy for Ardennes types and even Valverde would have trouble with Sagan.
With his form, and no Valverde, Martin has to be a serious contender for the PDBF stage, IF he can hold the wheels to the final 500m.