Tour de France 2018 stage 5: Lorient > Quimper 204,5 km

[hfer07]

GVA to honor the MJ with a stage victory

possible rivals: Balaphilippe - Peter the great - Bling Bling - Gilbert - *Froome


Will Don Alejandro bother?

 

[JThomas]

Both of them have done well in flat sprint stages already. It will be fun seeing them mix it up with Sagan, Matthews, GVA on a uphill finish

 

[DNP-Old]

I think Nando could survive, but I don't think he will. In fact, I think he'll give back to the team tomorrow. Gilbert (who has been talking about going for his own chances) and Alaphilippe are both within striking distance of yellow, and seem more logical to ride for than a sprinter.

 

[yaco]

Interesting that Colbrelli didn't contest the final today and finished last rider in the lead group - Think he will get through the stage but if it's raced hard he may find it challenging.

 

[cody57]

Question to the OP: where do you get the detailed stage maps?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Colbrelli

 

[sir fly]

Really nice OP, kudos.
Promising profile in one of the sport's homelands.
Everything set for a nice racing day.

 

[SHAD0W93]

GVA or Sagan to win.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

None of the heavy sprinters have a prayer tomorrow, this is classics country..... it's more or less a mini-Fleche, except for the final climb being easy.

Alaphillipe will make a move on the climb 22 k out, which will draw GVA along to protect his jersey - with Porte in tow, then Valverde moves with Landa and Quintana in tow, which makes Nibali move, as well as Valgren with Fuglsang in tow, and Kragh with Dumoulin, and Vanmarcke with Uran, and Naesen with Bardet, and most the Sky team, and so the dominos fall, until it is a group of 30 the final 20 k, some trying to gain GC time on those that didn't make the move, and others riding for the stage win.

Maybe Sagan, Matthews, Colbrelli, Kristoff and Demare can hang on, and Cort obviously (though he may not be allowed to sprint).

 

[jaylew]

Bling ftw.

 

[Koronin]

I think tomorrow we'll end up with the handful of sprinters who can climb a bit like Sagan, Matthews, possibly Gaviria along with the puncheurs like Valverde and Alaphilippe. So it will be an interesting finish. It's also the type of finish that Valverde can grab a few seconds from the other GC guys. Hoping Valverde can win, but I'm not sure it's a hard enough final climb.

 

[GraftPunk]

I'm thinking GVA or Sagan, although it wouldn't surprise me if someone like De Gent successfully started his escapists hi-jinks and the break stays away.

 

[rghysens]

Re:

None of the heavy sprinters have a prayer tomorrow, this is classics country..... it's more or less a mini-Fleche, except for the final climb being easy.

Alaphillipe will make a move on the climb 22 k out, which will draw GVA along to protect his jersey - with Porte in tow, then Valverde moves with Landa and Quintana in tow, which makes Nibali move, as well as Valgren with Fuglsang in tow, and Kragh with Dumoulin, and Vanmarcke with Uran, and Naesen with Bardet, and most the Sky team, and so the dominos fall, until it is a group of 30 the final 20 k, some trying to gain GC time on those that didn't make the move, and others riding for the stage win.

The course just isn't hard enough for that, unless they drop the hammer from Chateaulin. But which team is gonna sacrifice itself for an uncertain outcome? Maybe Bora will try to shed as many sprinters as possible.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

None of the heavy sprinters have a prayer tomorrow, this is classics country..... it's more or less a mini-Fleche, except for the final climb being easy.

Alaphillipe will make a move on the climb 22 k out, which will draw GVA along to protect his jersey - with Porte in tow, then Valverde moves with Landa and Quintana in tow, which makes Nibali move, as well as Valgren with Fuglsang in tow, and Kragh with Dumoulin, and Vanmarcke with Uran, and Naesen with Bardet, and most the Sky team, and so the dominos fall, until it is a group of 30 the final 20 k, some trying to gain GC time on those that didn't make the move, and others riding for the stage win.

The course just isn't hard enough for that, unless they drop the hammer from Chateaulin. But which team is gonna sacrifice itself for an uncertain outcome? Maybe Bora will try to shed as many sprinters as possible.

Except if they make it too hard, Sagan then faces the possibility of loosing to Alaphilippe and Valverde.

 

[sir fly]

I doubt Alaphilippe will have freedom to get away unmarked. He's GC calibre and other GC contenders will go after him.
Should a small group make to the finish, it won't consist of the big names. It's the nature of GT racing... the teams are ready and strong enough to mark the moves.
The big names might be seen battling out from reduced bunch at the finish.

 

[markene2]

Colbrelli takes this

 

[armchairclimber]

Ala, Bala or ..... drum roll, Bob Jungels.

 

[The Hegelian]

Re:

Colbrelli takes this

Yep, I think Cobrelli too. Looked in super form in stage 2, and the finale definitely suits him. Gav obviously also a big chance.

These days I think Matthews needs something quite a bit harder and Sagan looks a bit heavy.

 

[Frankschleck]

Søren Kragh will win this or Pasqualon.

 

[Robert5091]

Would not be surprised if Nibs or Bardet go off the front given a chance. QS versus GvA plus Sagan.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

Would not be surprised if Nibs or Bardet go off the front given a chance. QS versus GvA plus Sagan.

They’re all going to be near the front, so someone is bound to have a crack over the last 2 hills.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Really torn on this one. It's just tough enough that the Punchers definitely have a shot. It's a really interesting finish, many potential winners. What were the results of similar finishes last year?

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re:

I doubt Alaphilippe will have freedom to get away unmarked. He's GC calibre and other GC contenders will go after him.

I would be astonished if any GC man thinks of Alaphilippe as a GC rival or even as slightly GC relevant. He may well be chased by GC men if he goes but that’s more likely to be because they see a chance for the stage (a Valverde, a Martin etc) or because they think getting away with him would be a chance to gain a few seconds.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re: Re:

I doubt Alaphilippe will have freedom to get away unmarked. He's GC calibre and other GC contenders will go after him.

I would be astonished if any GC man thinks of Alaphilippe as a GC rival or even as slightly GC relevant. He may well be chased by GC men if he goes but that’s more likely to be because they see a chance for the stage (a Valverde, a Martin etc) or because they think getting away with him would be a chance to gain a few seconds.

Oh, forgot about Martin

He is sure to attack tomorrow, to make up time.

Tomorrow and the day after, will be the first indications of contender form

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

I doubt Alaphilippe will have freedom to get away unmarked. He's GC calibre and other GC contenders will go after him.

I would be astonished if any GC man thinks of Alaphilippe as a GC rival or even as slightly GC relevant. He may well be chased by GC men if he goes but that’s more likely to be because they see a chance for the stage (a Valverde, a Martin etc) or because they think getting away with him would be a chance to gain a few seconds.

At the moment, Alaphilippe is in contention for the Yellow jersey.
How far he might get with it on his shoulders is uncertain, but there were worse climbers than him in the top 10 at the end.